This post will be progressively updated to follow the late counting in the undecided seat of Dobell.
Wednesday 5pm. The addition of 817 absent votes have favoured Labor by 450-367, whittling the Liberal lead back to 624.
Sunday 6pm. Some missing booth and pre-poll voting centre results have broken handily for Liberal candidate Karen McNamara, favouring her 2701 to 2243 over Labor’s Emma McBride, increasing her lead to a surely decisive 968.
Election night. As with neighbouring Robertson in 2010, Labor has done better in Dobell in the wake of local member scandals than most expected, though in this case not by quite enough. The ABC projects a 5.7% swing off a 5.4% margin, although the margin on the raw two-party preferred count is lower at 35029 (50.4%) to 34519 (49.6%).
William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.
The Poll Bludger, who is known to his mother as William Bowe, can be contacted at: pollbludger-at-bigpond.com.
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