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Federal Election 2013

Sep 13, 2013

Call of the board: part two

A quick run-through election results of interests from seats in the AFL states plus the Australian Capital Territory (the rest having been dealt with yesterday).

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The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.

Victoria

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	42.6	+3.1	42.7	
Labor		35.3	-8.2	34.6		
Greens		10.5	-1.7	10.9
Palmer United	3.7
Others		7.9

Two-party preferred

Coalition	49.7	+5.4	50.1
Labor		50.3	-5.4	49.9

Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.

Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.

Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.

Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.

Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.

Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.

La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.

Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.

Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.

McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.

McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.

Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.

Western Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	51.1	0.4	51.0
Labor		29.1	-2.5	28.7		
Greens		9.6	-3.2	10.0
Palmer United	5.4
Others		4.8

Two-party preferred

Coalition	57.1	+0.9	57.3
Labor		42.9	-0.9	42.7

Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.

Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.

Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.

Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.

O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.

South Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	44.8	+4.8	45.1
Labor		36.2	-5.1	35.6		
Greens		8.0	-3.8	8.2
Palmer United	3.8
Others		7.2

Two-party preferred

Coalition	52.2	+5.7	52.6
Labor		47.8	-5.7	47.4

Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.

Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.

Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.

Tasmania

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	40.2	+6.9	40.5
Labor		35.1	-9.3	34.7		
Greens		8.1	-8.5	8.3
Palmer United	6.2
Others		10.4

Two-party preferred

Coalition	51.6	+9.4	51.2
Labor		48.4	-9.4	48.8

Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.

Australian Capital Territory

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	34.5	-0.1	34.7
Labor		43.4	-2.1	42.9		
Greens		13.0	-5.8	13.4
Palmer United	2.8
Others		6.3

Two-party preferred

Coalition	40.0	+1.9	40.2
Labor		60.0	-1.9	59.8

With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2051 comments

2,051 thoughts on “Call of the board: part two

  1. Carey Moore

    [Has Labor finished talking about itself yet?!?]

    Have you finished dribbling shit yet, hack?

  2. guytaur

    I just heard the news that Russia and US have made a diplomatic agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons.

    Fantastic. Credit to all making it happen.

  3. Carey Moore

    Can we have a rule against that stupid talking point about the Labor Party getting more primary votes? It’s stupid, misleading and irrelevant!

  4. Sean Tisme

    [From the AEC page

    Australian Labor Party 3,902,425
    Liberal 3,703,007]

    And the Queensland Libs?

    Never go full retard

  5. Mick77

    paaps
    [tonight the Libs continued to release no policies]
    We just had an election and Abbott govt to be sworn in for 6 years on Monday; what policies were you awaiting tonight?

  6. Sean Tisme

    [Have you finished dribbling shit yet, hack?]

    We are barely 1 week past the annihilation at the election and Labor are talking about themselves already!

    Heres Gillard dumping shit on Rudd:
    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/julia-gillard-launches-scathing-attack-on-kevin-rudd-and-the-pain-she-still-feels-over-being-dumped/story-fnii5s3x-1226719034631

    It’s gonna be a long 3 years folks….

  7. paaptsef

    [ From the AEC page

    Australian Labor Party 3,902,425
    Liberal 3,703,007 ]
    when will we be rid of this illegitimate incompetent government

  8. Fran Barlow

    Mick77

    [what policies were you awaiting tonight?]

    The ones that ought to have been specified at least 8 weeks ago.

  9. guytaur

    Mick

    Abbott is being sworn in for a term. Three years.

    Hubris to just assume Second term. Unless of course you are expecting vote rigging.

    Or to put it another way. Do not count your chickens until they are hatched.

  10. Mick77

    guytaur
    [I just heard the news that Russia and US have made a diplomatic agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons.
    Fantastic. Credit to all making it happen.]
    Spoken like a true Greens supporter. Nothing has “happened yet” and I wouldn’t trust Putin, Assad or Obama any further than I could throw Lee Rhiannon. Let’s wait and see and keep in mind “peace in our time” Chamberlain who brought war and was cheered by all the “peace-loving” Poms.

  11. Mick77

    guytaur
    [Do not count your chickens until they are hatched]
    Normally yes, but I’m prepared to go out on a limb on this one – 6 years .. at least. The public doesn’t forget Labor-Greens chaos in only 3 years.

  12. Carey Moore

    [We are barely 1 week past the annihilation at the election and Labor are talking about themselves already!]

    A party talking about themselves! What a scandal! It’s almost as if they’ve just lost an election or something.

    Tell your party masters they need to feed you better lines to copy and paste than that one. It’s kind of pathetic.

    Still, there’s that lingering question: why are the Coalition supporters so bitter? They just won an election. So much bile on the right, I think they’ve forgotten how to find joy in things (except schadenfreude, of course.)

  13. Mick77

    [why are the Coalition supporters so bitter?]
    Because Rudd & Swan won their seats.

  14. guytaur

    Mick

    The phrase “making it happen”

    Its better than killing people by bombing them.

    You can with US Military power always do that later. No harm with trying for peace.

    Military action will only escalate. Of that there is no doubt. Therefore genuinely trying the peaceful way is better. Plus this fails Russia will be drawn into military action too meaning less risk of destabilisation with them involved

  15. Mick77

    Fran
    [The ones that ought to have been specified at least 8 weeks ago.]
    Stop The : carbon tax, boats and Greens. All pretty clear to me.

  16. Carey Moore

    [Because Rudd & Swan won their seats]

    But you won government and will get a somewhat friendly Senate! Here’s your opportunity to implement an agenda that you think is right. Where’s the optimism? This is your chance. Blank cheque and all that.

  17. psyclaw

    Bonza 1927

    It seems Tism was a subject in all three experiments.

    And his ongoing discourse here shows that he wasn’t shamming in the study….. the results show the real it.

  18. guytaur

    Mick

    It may dissappoint you but the Greens were involved in no chaos in the last three years.

    As for Labor there was only some personality and personnel managenent problems that had no effect on running the country.

    This is fact as all the economic including employment figures and the like testify.

    Much as LNP and Murdoch Journos like to paint otherwise those are the facts.

  19. Asha Leu

    @Mick77 1966

    [Stop The : carbon tax, boats and Greens. All pretty clear to me.]

    Gee, your right, what a comprehensive policy platform.

    There is actually a little more to governing than repealing a single piece of legislation, “stopping” asylum seekers (because of course they won’t be any more boats now that Abbott’s PM, not a single one, no ifs or buts) and reducing a minor party’s influence.

  20. Fran Barlow

    I said policies not silly slogans … though I’ll grant that the Libs behave as if there’s no difference.

    Your sharper members (Jaymes Diaz, Fiona Scott) don’t bother even learning the slogans, because they know that’s all they are.

  21. paaptsef

    [ Still, there’s that lingering question: why are the Coalition supporters so bitter? ]
    it’s something to do with the Libs inability to propose any alternatives to Labor’s economic management and simply adopting Labor’s entire agenda to win an election

  22. Mick77

    guytaur
    [No harm with trying for peace.]
    It all depends because illusions of peace bring greater risk of war. It may cost lives rather than save them as Assad and the Russians get everything hidden, Iran style, and I doubt that the families of the children who were gassed by Assad believe that backing off is a step for peace. I’m not ignoring the inhuman atrocities by some rebel groups, but when the US President pedals backwards on a clear red-line commitment, this does not augur well for world or local ME peace. The Russians and their allies can smell weakness and exploit it.

  23. davidwh

    Hopefully the new government will be sworn in soon and we can get back to more sensible discussion/attack on the new government’s policies and performance. The discussion at present is just a little immature.

    I thought most of us would have moved past who can pee the further a long tome ago.

    We need a poll 🙂

  24. Asha Leu

    Mick – so what you are saying is: to prevent war breaking out in the Middle East, the US needs to… invade Syria?

  25. guytaur

    mick

    Hiding the weapons won’t save Assad thats what Chapter 7 is all about.

    Syria is not part of the deal because it includes chapter 7

  26. Fran Barlow

    davidwh

    [I thought most of us would have moved past who can pee the further a long time ago.]

    Given that your party spent much of the last three years on saying pretty much just that “{…} will always be better under a coalition government” I’d say your call is premature.

  27. Gary

    David, I agree.

  28. Sean Tisme

    [We need a poll]

    I’d love to see a Preferred PM poll!!!

    Coalition Leader Tony Abbott 62%

    Labor Leader ??????????? 30%

    Labor is going to be Rudderless and Leaderless for at least a month! Brilliant!

  29. deblonay

    The American People have finally made it clear that they want peace
    _______________________
    A Counterpunch writer looks at the surge of public opposition to any attack on Syria in the US … of which the Russian actions cleverly caught the mood…and the way Obama has been forced to back off from the neo-con inspired plan for an attack on Syria
    ……..and this has frustrated the Israeli and their zionist backers in Congress who want a war with Syria as a preliminary to a full on attack on Iran…which is the real Israeli target

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/13/the-people-say-no-to-war-finally/

  30. davidwh

    Fran I’m actually largely anti-political parties although I accept they generally do provide the most stable governments. As for both the L-NP and Labor’s performances for the past three years well I wouldn’t be proudly claiming to be part of either. We can only wish the next three will be an improvement.

  31. paaptsef

    Abbott is frozen because he can’t be sure if he is talking about an actual policy or not and doesn’t want to embarrass himself.

  32. Mick77

    Asha Leu
    [the US needs to… invade Syria?]
    What invasion are you talking about? Israel bombed Syria’s nuclear reactor, bombed a few times advanced weaponry headed, or warehoused for the Hizbullah terrorists in Lebanon. Syria’s response, and that of its allies Russia and Iran, has been zero because Israel was acting on its consisted logically stated policies and US should do the same. There is far greater risk now of Israel having to attack Iran’s nuclear sites (alone) because the US under Obama is proving to be an unreliable ally and seems now to be about to be legged over by Iran, as it has been by Syria. “Peace” does not arise from a short-term lack of action; that is often the opposite as it was in Munich 1938, namely appeasement. Many more lives have been saved by Israel destroying Iran’s nuclear reactor in 1980 and Syria’s a few years ago; similarly US would have saved many more lives in the long-run by taking out Syria’s chemical weapons before they got scattered and hidden.

  33. Carey Moore

    [Labor is going to be Rudderless and Leaderless for at least a month! Brilliant!]

    Which is not going to matter in the slightest at the next election.

  34. Fran Barlow

    Unlike some, I regard a public campaign at this time to lead the ALP as salutary. Really, there is nothing better they can do with their time.

    At this point in the cycle, this is (potentially) far better PR than they could realistically hope for if the usual post-election loss pattern were followed.
    I won’t be surprised if, 3 months from now, they are close to parity.

  35. imacca

    [Still, there’s that lingering question: why are the Coalition supporters so bitter? ]

    FFS CM, its their natural condition after all.

    Grace in Victory is just not within the mental universe of their tribal grupenthunk.

  36. Carey Moore

    In fact, pretty much anything Labor do over the next 6 months won’t really matter on the greater scheme of things. As is the case of every other party when they first get sent back to the opposition benches. This is why it’s an ideal time to air out its dirty laundry and fix things.

    Only a sad, lonely hack (like Sean) cares what the polls have to say right now.

  37. davidwh

    Gary 1978 thanks.

  38. paaptsef

    The country needs assurance from our new leader that his government has made the correct decision to massively increase our debt level but he has gone missing in fear of saying something

  39. imacca

    [Labor is going to be Rudderless and Leaderless for at least a month! Brilliant!]

    Gee ST, you say that like you think the first month of a party being in opposition actually matters. You really are a sadly ignorant pinhead of an individual aren’t you?

  40. Mick77

    Oh cripes, I see we’ve drawn deblonay out of his SS bunker where he researches day & night all of the Jewish conspiracies to push the world into war and stealthily take it over and thereby achieve world Jewish domination in the same way that we’ve taken over all banks, all international corporations, all western governments and framed Bin Laden for 9/11. I thought he was holed up permanently in the SS bunker for fear of us.

  41. guytaur

    @abcnews: US, Russia agree on plan to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014. Arms inspectors must be in Syria by Nov http://t.co/oshJPLna5Q

  42. Psephos

    AussieAchmed, you really don’t help Labor by repeating such silly falsehoods as that Labor outpolled the Liberals. The Liberal figure you cite doesn’t include Qld or the NT. I’m sure you know this.
    These are the meaningful figures:
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2013/2013reps1.txt

  43. paaptsef

    Hat-trick Mckay

  44. Carey Moore

    McKay just bowled a hat trick!

  45. Fran Barlow

    davidwh

    [Fran I’m actually largely anti-political parties although I accept they generally do provide the most stable governments. ]

    If you’ve read my preferred governance model, then you’ll know I am too. I’m also not sure that the kind of “stability” parties offer is all that valuable.

    [As for both the L-NP and Labor’s performances for the past three years well I wouldn’t be proudly claiming to be part of either. We can only wish that during the next three there will be an improvement.{slightly edited for fluency: FB}]

    One can wish, but there’s simply no basis for confidence in that and ample basis for inferring that we will be disappointed with what ensues.

  46. davidwh

    Yep I can’t see any problem with Labor taking some time to settle their leadership issue. It’s really only critical to have things settled for when parliament resumes. Both side have a lot to do between now and then.

  47. guytaur

    Good night

  48. davidwh

    Fran I think political parties weaken pure democracy however I generally get into strife when I suggest that. It’s really a balance between elected members truely representing the people who voted for them and having a parliament that works effectively. I don’t think there are any easy answers to that conflict.

    Also I’m not overly confident how the current government will perform however we collectively elected them so I hope they surprise me.

  49. absolutetwaddle

    Hey Sean Tisme, care to revise your Indi declaration?

    Or too soon to ask?XD

  50. davidwh

    I though Sophie conceded?

  51. Mick77

    Jay Leno: ‘I’m on that new Obama diet. Every day I let Vladimir Putin eat my lunch’

  52. Psephos

    I know you’ve all been waiting for the results of the elections in Togo.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/t/togo/

  53. Carey Moore

    [I though Sophie conceded?]

    No, she just advised Abbott to form a cabinet without her in it. In other words, she’s doubtful but she didn’t concede.

  54. davidwh

    Thanks Carey. I have been out of the loop for a few days.

  55. Carey Moore

    Not that conceding matters. You win, you win.

  56. absolutetwaddle

    davidwh

    “I though Sophie conceded?”

    No, she withdrew from consideration for cabinet. I was harking back to election night when our friend Sean was telling us in no uncertain terms Soohie had won and that we should “deal with it”.

    I’m just wondering how he’s dealing with it.:3

  57. Mick77

    Psephos
    [I know you’ve all been waiting for the results of the elections in Togo.]
    Well we should be. They serve by Australia’s side in the UNSC, that haven for democratic regimes. Rudd & Carr spent $40m of our money and millions more in “aid”, licked African & Arab dictators’ butts and screwed Israel in the UN to join the band of brothers. How did the Togans get into this noble group, and the Rwandans and the Moroccans for that matter, without the spend and butt-licking?

  58. davidwh

    Looks like Fairfax is the seat that will go down to the wire.

  59. Carey Moore

    [I know you’ve all been waiting for the results of the elections in Togo.]

    I, for one, will be sleeping comfortably tonight, knowing the UPR are well in charge of the country’s legislative agenda for the next five years

  60. Tom the first and best

    2009

    It could well end up in court then. Especially if Palmer looses.

  61. paaptsef

    [ I know you’ve all been waiting for the results of the elections in Togo.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/t/togo/ ]
    over one third of enrolled voters didn’t even vote which raises the question why did 120,000 bother to lodge an invalid vote

  62. imacca

    davidwh:
    is :3 the internet equivalent of mooning?? 🙂

  63. davidwh

    Imacca it sure looks like it to me 😉

  64. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I bring to your attention that tonight 14 September, , but for the actions of the Great Termite, his foot-soldiers and the acolytes who gave him aid and comfort,, we would have been celebrating an ALP victory, and the second term of Prime Minister Gillard.

    Thanks, Kevin.

  65. Mick77

    Puff
    [ … we would have been celebrating an ALP victory, and the second term of Prime Minister Gillard. Thanks, Kevin.]
    And thanks Puff for the laugh.
    Good night.

  66. New2This

    Puff your right. I thank Kevin for damage he has done. Tony Abbott is now Prime Minister elect…

  67. DisplayName

    Fran and david, may I join your No Parties party? 🙂

  68. DisplayName

    Maybe it’s an Independents party? 🙂

  69. davidwh

    Happy to have you along DN but wouldn’t it just end up another political party 🙁

  70. paaptsef

    Abbott wins an election and then is to scared to say anything because the Libs are too incompetent to know if their policies are actually their policies or not

  71. davidwh

    Is there anything to stop Abbott negotiating with the independent Senators elect on passing legislation prior to 1 July 2014?

  72. DisplayName

    We’ll call it the No Parties Network, then. It provides all the support for members that parties do in terms of the mechanics of being a politician but leaves philosophy up to the individual.

    Then we’ll need to work out what happens if we manage to get a majority of people elected ;).

  73. davidwh

    That’s negotiating prior to 1 July. Obviously they can’t do anything about passing legislation until after 1 July.

  74. davidwh

    I love the concept DN.

  75. davidwh

    A party who’s members get a conscience vote on every piece of legislation?

  76. DisplayName

    david, the Greens and Labor have enough on their own, currently.

  77. DisplayName

    oops, just saw 2024

  78. DisplayName

    david, exactly, and if we somehow got a majority we would enforce it on the whole parliament ;). Muahahahahahaah!

  79. davidwh

    Now that would be excellent DN.

  80. MsAdventure

    [Tom the first and best
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 12:16 am | PERMALINK
    2009

    It could well end up in court then. Especially if Palmer looses.]

    I don’t believe he intended or expected to win. The whole object was to take votes from the ALP and to get them out of Govt. Think mining tax.

  81. DisplayName

    At which point we’d probably also have to change how things get done. I suggest splitting our current single vote for representatives into two votes, one for changes to the system and one for people who’ll manage it. So we could vote for Labor policy and force those Liberals to manage it or vice versa, haha.

    Good fun!

  82. imacca

    [ prior to 1 July 2014?]

    They are not Senators prior to July 2014.

    However, once they are confirmed as Senators elect i cant think of anything improper about Peta having them round for drinks and a chat. 🙁

  83. DisplayName

    We’d have a completely open and published model available at all times, along with proposed changes.

  84. DisplayName

    Oh well, enough dreaming while awake ;).

  85. paaptsef

    how hilarious would it be if the Libs are already making excuses about being a do nothing government

  86. Kevin Bonham

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/modelling-tasmanian-state-election-off.html

    This article takes a look at some claims that the result of the Tasmanian federal seats, if repeated federally, would produce a hung parliament with PUP holding the balance of power. It finds these claims wanting on many different levels. The federal election does suggest Tasmanian ReachTEL polling has been Liberal-skewed by about four points, but the federal election and matching state/federal polling points to the Liberals winning.

    Also for those who somehow missed all my spam for them:

    Tas Senate counting –

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/2013-federal-election-post-counting.html

    (A complete mess with a close race between the Liberals and PUP for the final seat, with the Sex Party and Family First also not completely out of it.)

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/2013-federal-election-late-counting.html

    (My house of reps late counting thread.)

    I have not been active in the open threads here because I am so busy with projections, however I am posting many comments on the seat threads.

  87. Psephos

    KB, you have any comments on the state of the Senate races in other states, particularly WA?

  88. B.C.

    RIP Ronald Coase: Man who lifted lid on hidden costs of buying. Unarguable one of the greatest economists of the 20th century (although Tony Abbott and Greg Hunt seem to be rejecting his work).

  89. lefty e

    [lefty – after our recent election dealings I hesitate to humiliate you again (btw Labor won’t even make 55 seats, let alone 61, and 2PP is heading towards 46.5% to ALP if they’re lucky, nearly 1pc point below you 47.3%) but I predict as oer yr points above: 1)carbon TAX & ETS will go, 2)Boats in international waters will be turned back 3)Direct Action … in reality who cares anymore, pseudo saving the planet via Oz is so yesterday 4)NBN is a disaster and a problem for Oz not just for Libs and I really don’t know how the new government is gonna sort out the nearly $100bn mess left by the incompetent Rudd-Gillard-Greens Rudd hopeless Labor-Greens govt. Eventually we’ll have to take the write-down of the “Asset” to budget bottom line – thanks Labor-Greens!]

    Again? when was the first time Mick?

    1) Yes, maybe 2) No, the australian navy would be breaching naval law by interfereing with any boat in international waters, which wont happen, so youre totally wrong here, and you will later admit this 3) glad you agree with me 4) it seems a lot of your own party’s supporters dont fancy the policy.

  90. lefty e

    [Hockey to raise debt ceiling]

    As I was saying…. FAIL

  91. imacca

    [Hockey to raise debt ceiling]

    To be fair i think everyone assumes he will. But, he has been MIA since the election so who knows?? Maybe he thinks that Mesma is actually after his job?? 🙂

  92. Kevin Bonham

    Psephos@2038

    KB, you have any comments on the state of the Senate races in other states, particularly WA?

    Just some general comments – these things are shifting sands in post-counting because certain parties perform better or worse on the day than in pre-polling. Things like the Sports Party seat in WA (which is extremely close by the calculator) are actually very premature to be calling and writing articles about. It might happen, it might not. Seemingly tiny changes knock them off course and elect somebody else. Modelling off current figures can be irrelevant by the end of the post-count.

    I haven’t looked at any of the others in enough detail to make any informed comment – where enough detail equals a hell of a lot.

  93. Outsider

    From the Indi thread courtesy of the esteemed Kevin Bonham:
    Kevin Bonham
    “I’m getting an average gap of 240 on the latest figures on the assumption that practically all remaining EVPPs and one quarter of remaining postals arrive. Mirabella has some chance still, maybe five percent or so (assumptions on probability calculations can be argued various ways). The last 500 absents had almost no effect on my projection.”

    I did my own little analysis this morning, based on what we know already from late counting of prepolls, absents and postals. The number I came up with is a final win to McGowan by 256. Perilously close. I think I will stick with Kevin’s calculation that Mirabella still has a 5% probability of winning from here. He’s much better at this stuff than I am! The critical variable relates to the return rate of outstanding postals – there are about 1100 that have not yet been returned. My calculation assumes 100 of these will still come in.

    Fingers crossed that good will prevail.

  94. geoffrey

    In a thinly veiled swipe at Mr Rudd, Ms Gillard asked the party to consider what should befall politicians who ”dedicate themselves to destabilising others and bringing the party in to disrepute”.

    ============ this is so funny from julia. nothing about 2010. no regret, mea culpa. and this is to be admired? i think it is much too soon to hear from yet another retired labor statesperson. a long anthropological trip to s america might produce more wisdom than this prejudice.

  95. geoffrey

    paaptsef
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 12:40 am | PERMALINK
    Abbott wins an election and then is to scared to say anything because the Libs are too incompetent to know if their policies are actually their policies or not
    ——–

    something like that. too scared of media (they are naked now). too scared of speaking (requires use of sentences). too scared of policy (requires reading) … where is rupert when you need him?

  96. geoffrey

    but they can stop wage increases to aged care workers – next to the age one of the most vulnerable groups. time for some national strikes

  97. geoffrey

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 12:28 am | PERMALINK
    I bring to your attention that tonight 14 September, , but for the actions of the Great Termite, his foot-soldiers and the acolytes who gave him aid and comfort,, we would have been celebrating an ALP victory, and the second term of Prime Minister Gillard.

    Thanks, Kevin.
    —————hmmm. what evidence for that?

  98. democracy@work

    WA Senate

    Above the time and Below the Line have been proportioned out.

    All indications are that Sports Party will not survive the count at two crucial junctions

    TCS 603:506 (ABTL:BTL) – 193 Margin vs 506 BTL votes that might not be transferred to SPRTS

    RUA 1542:1499 (ATL:BTL) – 199 Notional Margin vs 1399 BTL votes that might not be transferred to SPRTS

    The ALP has slipped back to 26.75% giving Greens advantage

    BUT i s is now Essential for all parties to secure a copy of the BTL preference data file to facilitate the proper open scrutiny of the ballot