tip off

Seat of the week: Warringah

There are roughly as many seats in the House of Representatives as there are weeks until the next election. Time to get get cracking then on the 2016 election guide. Taking it from the top …

Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah covers Sydney’s affluent northern beaches from Manly north to Dee Why, extending inland to Balgowlah, Mosman, Middle Cove and Forestville. Out of the 150 federal electorates, it ranks fourth highest for median family income after Wentworth, North Sydney and Curtin. Warringah accommodated the entire northern beaches as far as the Hawkesbury River from its establishment in 1922 until 1949, when the creation of Mackellar caused it to be reoriented around Mosman and Seaforth. A relatively static population has since seen it expand back to the north over successive redistributions, recovering Manly in 1969 and being anchored on the north shore of Port Jackson thereafter.

Warringah has been never been held by Labor, and has only once slipped from Liberal control since the party’s foundation in 1944. That occasion was in March 1969 when one-term member and instant loose cannon Edward St John raised concerns in parliament over then Prime Minister John Gorton’s indiscreet behaviour with a female journalist, prompting him to resign from the party pending expulsion. St John contested as an independent at the election the following October, but was only able to poll 20.6% against 50.2% for Liberal candidate Michael Mackellar. Mackellar went on to serve in the Fraser government as minister first for immigration and then for health, resigning from the latter role in 1982 over a failure to declare to customs a television set he brought into the country.

The mid-term retirement of Mackellar in February 1994 initiated a by-election at which the seat safely passed to its present incumbent, Tony Abbott. Abbott had famously studied to become a priest after leaving school, but soon became set on a course for parliament via student politics, a stint as a journalist with The Bulletin, and the position of press secretary to Opposition Leader John Hewson. After securing a safe seat in parliament at the age of 36, Abbott became a parliamentary secretary with the election of the Howard government in 1996, winning promotion to cabinet as Employment Services Minister after the 1998 election and then to workplace relations in 2001 and health and ageing in 2003.

Abbott first publicly declared his leadership ambitions after the Howard government’s defeat in 2007, but he withdrew from the contest when it became clear he would not have the numbers. In late November 2009 he was one of a number of front-benchers who quit as part of a revolt against leader Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the government’s emissions trading scheme, which initiated a leadership spill. Presumed favourite Joe Hockey was unexpectedly defeated in the first round, and Abbott prevailed over Turnbull in the second 42 votes to 41. Abbott’s first year in the leadership saw Kevin Rudd deposed as prime minister in favour of Julia Gillard and Labor lose its majority at the August 2010 election, but he was unable to secure the necessary support of independents in order to form government.

Despite weak personal approval ratings attributed to his abrasive political style, Abbott’s hold on the party leadership was consolidated during Labor’s second term by crushing opinion poll leads on voting intention, which eventually wrought the downfall of a second Labor prime minister on Abbott’s watch in June 2013. Abbott became Australia’s twenty-eighth prime minister after the Coalition easily defeated Labor and its newly returned leader Kevin Rudd at the ensuing election on September 7, gaining a national two-party swing of 3.4% and securing what appears at the time of writing to be an absolute majority of 16 seats.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The new government’s first opinion poll is testament either to the absence of a honeymoon bounce, or the particular pollster’s tendency towards constancy in its results. The poll is from Essential Research and is the normal fortnightly rolling average, which it to say half of it was conducted over the weekend of the election itself. It has the Coalition on 44% (45.6% at the election on current figures), Labor on 36% (33.6%) and the Greens (9%). The published 53-47 two-party preferred (the current election result being 53.4-46.6) is weaker for Labor than the primary vote shifts suggest it should be, which may be because they are still using preference allocations from 2010.

Further questions finding 38% thinking the election of micro-parties to the Senate “good for democracy” against 25% for bad, although I’d like to see more specific questions in relation to this topic. Forty-four per cent believe the lack of a Coalition Senate majority will make for benefit against 30% for worse. Respondents were asked about various aspects they might expect to get better or worse under the new government, including the surprising finding that cost of living and interest rates are expected to be worse. Other questions relate to the country’s economic outlook, all of which you can see here.

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  • 1
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 5:07 am | Permalink

    Where is PMTA?

  • 2
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 5:28 am | Permalink

    At Pine Lodge mesmerised by the spinning wheels and free drinks.

  • 3
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:17 am | Permalink

    Go team Emirates NZ ! Race 7 off and racing.

  • 4
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    It’s more skimming than sailing …

  • 5
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    Lost that one.

    Too aggressive.

  • 6
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    Eejits nearly capsized it and have blown the race. Copped a penalty to rub salt into the wound.
    Seppos seem to have done something to their boat. The leg they have been slaughtered on in all but one race they were matching NZ.

  • 7
    BK
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:37 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Let’s sit back and enjoy watching the fur fly.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/residents-irate-as-private-schools-buy-up-neighbourhood-20130914-2trj3.html
    Here we go. And a reminder here that the Commission hearings are going to be live streamed (I think thois was announced last week).
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/paedophile-scoutmaster-employed-at-boys-school-20130914-2trie.html
    Abott coulkd be responsible for a traffic train wreck here in SA already.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/motorists-face-12month-delay-to-all-works-on-south-road/story-fni6uo1m-1226719307750
    Cathy Wilcox is on to the invisible Abbott. And so she should be.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Ron Tandberg has another go at the new Senate composition.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  • 8
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    It’s the Grant Dalton jinx. He has been off the boat for two races . The only two they have lost.
    The cause of the damn near capsize was a the jib not coming across. Could be a mechanical prob or panic at the seppos being at least as fast as NZ on a leg they previously owned.

  • 9
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    No boubt it has been linked to, what can one add?

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/13/julia-gillard-labor-purpose-future

  • 10
    BK
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free -

    Some cartoons on the Syrian crisis.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/14/cartoons-day-situation-normal/
    Bill Maher’s back.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/14/video-bill-maher-coins-new-term-describe-gopers-switch-positions-oppose-obama-blacktrack/
    And here is his “New Rules:.
    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/maher-americas-syria-policy-makes-us-look-like-george-zimmerman/
    How stupid can they get?
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/legal-loophole-allows-new-belt-fed-ar-15-spr
    From the Catholic wingnuts.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/catholic-website-says-colleges-arent-women-l
    Chris Christie seems to be a WorkChoices fan.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/09/14/1238400/-This-week-in-the-War-on-Workers-Christie-screws-New-Jersey-truck-drivers-and-construction-workers
    Is God really a Republican?
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017145480

  • 11
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    BK

    One to go with your Christie story.

    One more reason it's crap to be a waiter in America

    The IRS is cracking down on tips – again. Why go after billionaires when you can squeeze more out of servers?

    America's waiters and waitresses can't seem to get a break. Not only do they make a mere $2 to $5 an hour base salary in most places, now the tax man wants to make their lives more miserable.

    Yes, the IRS is worried that people who typically make about $20,000 a year aren't paying enough in taxes. Why go after millionaires and billionaires when you can squeeze more out of servers?

    In a new rule set to take effect in January, restaurants that charge an "automatic tip" have to treat that amount like a wage, not a tip.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/08/irs-tax-waiter-tips-automatic-gratuities

  • 12
    BK
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:09 am | Permalink

    poroti
    Why am i not surprised?

  • 13
    mari
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    Had a look on PB last night see the resident trolls have now been reduced to abuse of other PBers as a distraction from the fact their great leader and also Treasurer elect are MIA and the party seems completely lost. The trolls will disappear soon I think :devil:

  • 14
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    I’m someone with great respect for the animal kingdom, and can generally find some beauty in all living things, but this proboscis monkey does test this power …

    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/environment/ugly-animal-preservation-society-names-worlds-ugliest-animal-20130913-2to69.html

    Mind you, I’d prefer him to John Howard as GG ;-)

  • 15
    mari
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:30 am | Permalink

    Fran 14
    So would I prefer him to JWH GG,Amazing colour though

  • 16
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    DisplayName and Davidwh

    My ‘no parties’ platform really is about structure and process.

    I’d use a combination of deliberative sortition for candidate selection and direct democracy for ‘macro’ policy.

    In this system, the parties, shorn of their power to broker careers or determine policy or to protect the harmful, would be reduced to barracking from the sidelines for particular ideas or perhaps coaching those from the pool of randomly selected citizens they thought were the best prospects for their kinds of policy framework.

    Imagine no career politicians. You may say I’m a dreamer.

  • 17
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    He does have nice fur — it’s true. That cartoon nose however is hard to get past.

  • 18
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    Morning all. Thanks for the link n the South Road story BK. there is fault on both sids on that one. The SA government has never publicly released the report justifying the Torrens project, and its claims on the economics of it are dubious in my view. In the last Swan budget the Commonwealth money was not slated to appear for two years. The State was trying to commit Canberra in advance of time.

    The joke will soon be on the state. When the duplicated Southern Expressway opens soon, it will make no difference to the queue in South Road.

  • 19
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    More on the proboscis monkey …

    The monkey also goes by the Malay name monyet belanda ("Dutch monkey"), or even orang belanda ("Dutchman"), as Indonesians remarked that the Dutch colonisers often had similarly large bellies and noses.

  • 20
    BK
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Socrates.
    There is no escape from the Theory of Constraints.

  • 21
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    More of the same, Labor trying to be half pregnent is not going to work.

    http://wrb330.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/labor-lacks-electoral-loyalty/

  • 22
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    What can one say, this is our PM?

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/tony-abbott-abandons-possuminfested-lodge-in-canberra-to-live-with-afp-recruits-until-renovations-are-complete/story-fni0cx12-1226719229780

  • 23
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    What can one say, this is our PM?

    What’s the problem?

  • 24
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    BK

    That is the point though, the State was playing political games, not following the agreed rules. Without a friendly govt in Canberra to shield them, they are about to be caught out. And the State election is in March 2014.

    The SA State government is, together with Napthine in Vic, the least transparent on planning decisions of all the States. They do not even have public written policies on some issues relating to development approval.

  • 25
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:13 am | Permalink

    Fran

    In early colonial days the Dutch used bolsters to keep the bed sheets off their bodies. It was, after all, very hot and sticky. Often the men did not take their wives with them to the NEI, or they were single. Life expectancy in the tropics was a few years. But there was money to be made.

    Anyway, the Indonesians called the bolsters ‘Dutch wives’.

    If there is one thing the powerful cannot do it is to quell the humour of the abused.

    ‘Balanda’ has become a Gupapuyngu borrow word by way of Macassan trepang and beche de mer gatherers to describe whites in Arnhemland

  • 26
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    r

    Instead of poncing around wearing police gear Abbott should be on the phone fixing up his Indonesian mess.

    It is time for Abbott’s stunts, Abbott’s wrecking the joint and Abbott’s fart-arsing around with uniforms to stop, and it time for doing what he is paid for.

  • 27
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    Fran
    Have they embellished the external procreative parts of the Proboscis monkey? The seed production unit/s look metallic.

  • 28
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    I think Edward StJohn QC getting 20 per cent compares very favourably in the history of party mps subsequently running as independents. What did Slipper get 1.5 per cent ?

  • 29
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    The similarity between Abbott’s new quarters and a monk’s cell are so striking that even the media have picked up on it.
    :D

  • 30
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    Good Morning

    In the realm of the weird. It turns out that it is amazing that he was only caught by Queensland police speeding in his car.

    He has suffered child abuse as his father shot him to “prove” manhood.

    Amazing Bernard Tomic has turned out to be as mature as he seems to be.

  • 31
    leon
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    Fran: Anyone who thinks those animals are ugly should take a look in the mirror.

  • 32
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    Sorry the link for my 30 comment

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/bernard-tomic-and-father-john8217s-crazy-world-revealed-by-former-hitting-partner-thomas-drouet/story-fni2flhh-1226719307121

  • 33
    markjs
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    I wonder if Margie is happy to share hubby’s mad-monk cell? ;-)

  • 34
    Outsider
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    From the Indi thread courtesy of the esteemed Kevin Bonham:
    Kevin Bonham
    “I’m getting an average gap of 240 on the latest figures on the assumption that practically all remaining EVPPs and one quarter of remaining postals arrive. Mirabella has some chance still, maybe five percent or so (assumptions on probability calculations can be argued various ways). The last 500 absents had almost no effect on my projection.”

    I did my own little analysis this morning, based on what we know already from late counting of prepolls, absents and postals. The number I came up with is a final win to McGowan by 256. Perilously close. I think I will stick with Kevin’s calculation that Mirabella still has a 5% probability of winning from here. He’s much better at this stuff than I am! The critical variable relates to the return rate of outstanding postals – there are about 1200 that have not yet been returned. My calculation assumes 100 of these will still come in.

    Fingers crossed that good will prevail.

  • 35
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:53 am | Permalink

    mark js

    Margie will be staying in Sydney I think. Unless the Abbotts are reliving Student digs days.

  • 36
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    @ABCNews24: Next #Insiders with @fitzhunter on Labor’s future + panel @MikeSeccombe @frankellyabc & @andrewprobyn http://t.co/3YXdj7UeVK #auspol

    Decent panel

  • 37
    Outsider
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    If, for some reason, the remaining prepolls (3535) ended up splitting 62/38 to Mirabella, as they did in 2010, then she would up winning by around 100…. Scary thought for a Sunday morning!

  • 38
    liyana
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    I think our new PM has an unhealthy fascination with men in uniforms. And where is his ubiquitous family? Where are they supposed to live? Or will he just bring them out for photo ops? I guess work and politics is a man’s world according to Tony.

  • 39
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    Clive wants to open new coalmines in Latrobe? Abbott is anticipating a mining-led boom?

    “Over the last decade, one of the most unassailable assumptions in global energy markets has been the ever-increasing trajectory of Chinese thermal coal demand,” the analysts write.

    “The results of our analysis indicate that the era of wanton Chinese coal demand growth is approaching an end.” And, it warns, coal miners should not count on other markets such as India picking up demand either because of economic issues and a lack of structural reform.

    The implications for the newly elected conservative government in Australia, which had pinned its policies on the future being exactly like the past, are enormous. Its policies are almost entirely geared towards re-igniting a mining boom, particularly in the coal industry. The carbon price, incentives for renewables, and “green tape” are being removed specifically to make that possible.

    The problem is that the financial markets no longer believe this to be true. And as Citi points out, this has “serious ripple effects” for globally graded commodities, and for countries which rely on coal production.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/tony-abbott-gets-crash-course-in-carbon-bubbles-88258

  • 40
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    The AFP stay seems real odd. After all Abbott has had a residence in Canberra.

    Unless security concerns have brought about this measure. We do know about that Facebook Page.

    Its about the only sensible reason I can think of for such a choice.

  • 41
    BK
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:01 am | Permalink

    Try as he might, Pontificating Paul Kelly fails to put any words into Chris Bowen’s mouth.

  • 42
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    The Lodge is having 12 months worth of “repairs” so Abbott and family will be housed up in Kirribilli House overlooking Sydney Harbour and the Opera House :)

  • 43
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    Instead of poncing around wearing police gear Abbott should be on the phone fixing up his Indonesian mess.

    What did he unilaterally shut down Australia’s live exports to Indonesia overnight?

    Oh no no… wait wait… that was the incompetent dickheads from the Labor Party

  • 44
    Al Dente
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    It’s only been a week, but Tony Abbott has already shown calm resolve by methodically fixing the Budget Emergency:

    1. Fired Steve Bracks.
    2. Denied pay rise to Aged Care workers.
    3. Found temporary lodgings with an ace gymnasium.

    Australia, this is what an adult government looks like.

  • 45
    Al Dente
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    Margie will be staying in Sydney I think. Unless the Abbotts are reliving Student digs days.

    Wait, I didn’t know Margie was gay!? That’s the only possible explanation, right? I’m not saying it, it’s just what all the talkback callers are saying.

  • 46
    alias
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    Abbott is hankering for his seminary days. It’s just plain weird. And as someone else said: where is Margie in all this?

  • 47
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    morning all

    So Abbott is quite happy to share accommodation with the AFP recruits. Hmmm,………….

  • 48
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    I agree with sex party taxing of Churches policy

  • 49
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    alias

    That is the point precisely. Where is Mergie? Hmmmm again……

  • 50
    psyclaw
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    So Abbott is going to reside humbly at the AFP recruit boarding house till the lodge is fixed.

    But will he still claim his Canberra o’nite allowance….. With cheap digs that should leave a few bucks over each day for the mortgage.

    And as even FKelly can discern, there are many implications about the PM residing rough.

    What a stuntmeister country member the monkey is.

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