tip off

Seat of the week: Warringah

There are roughly as many seats in the House of Representatives as there are weeks until the next election. Time to get get cracking then on the 2016 election guide. Taking it from the top …

Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah covers Sydney’s affluent northern beaches from Manly north to Dee Why, extending inland to Balgowlah, Mosman, Middle Cove and Forestville. Out of the 150 federal electorates, it ranks fourth highest for median family income after Wentworth, North Sydney and Curtin. Warringah accommodated the entire northern beaches as far as the Hawkesbury River from its establishment in 1922 until 1949, when the creation of Mackellar caused it to be reoriented around Mosman and Seaforth. A relatively static population has since seen it expand back to the north over successive redistributions, recovering Manly in 1969 and being anchored on the north shore of Port Jackson thereafter.

Warringah has been never been held by Labor, and has only once slipped from Liberal control since the party’s foundation in 1944. That occasion was in March 1969 when one-term member and instant loose cannon Edward St John raised concerns in parliament over then Prime Minister John Gorton’s indiscreet behaviour with a female journalist, prompting him to resign from the party pending expulsion. St John contested as an independent at the election the following October, but was only able to poll 20.6% against 50.2% for Liberal candidate Michael Mackellar. Mackellar went on to serve in the Fraser government as minister first for immigration and then for health, resigning from the latter role in 1982 over a failure to declare to customs a television set he brought into the country.

The mid-term retirement of Mackellar in February 1994 initiated a by-election at which the seat safely passed to its present incumbent, Tony Abbott. Abbott had famously studied to become a priest after leaving school, but soon became set on a course for parliament via student politics, a stint as a journalist with The Bulletin, and the position of press secretary to Opposition Leader John Hewson. After securing a safe seat in parliament at the age of 36, Abbott became a parliamentary secretary with the election of the Howard government in 1996, winning promotion to cabinet as Employment Services Minister after the 1998 election and then to workplace relations in 2001 and health and ageing in 2003.

Abbott first publicly declared his leadership ambitions after the Howard government’s defeat in 2007, but he withdrew from the contest when it became clear he would not have the numbers. In late November 2009 he was one of a number of front-benchers who quit as part of a revolt against leader Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the government’s emissions trading scheme, which initiated a leadership spill. Presumed favourite Joe Hockey was unexpectedly defeated in the first round, and Abbott prevailed over Turnbull in the second 42 votes to 41. Abbott’s first year in the leadership saw Kevin Rudd deposed as prime minister in favour of Julia Gillard and Labor lose its majority at the August 2010 election, but he was unable to secure the necessary support of independents in order to form government.

Despite weak personal approval ratings attributed to his abrasive political style, Abbott’s hold on the party leadership was consolidated during Labor’s second term by crushing opinion poll leads on voting intention, which eventually wrought the downfall of a second Labor prime minister on Abbott’s watch in June 2013. Abbott became Australia’s twenty-eighth prime minister after the Coalition easily defeated Labor and its newly returned leader Kevin Rudd at the ensuing election on September 7, gaining a national two-party swing of 3.4% and securing what appears at the time of writing to be an absolute majority of 16 seats.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The new government’s first opinion poll is testament either to the absence of a honeymoon bounce, or the particular pollster’s tendency towards constancy in its results. The poll is from Essential Research and is the normal fortnightly rolling average, which it to say half of it was conducted over the weekend of the election itself. It has the Coalition on 44% (45.6% at the election on current figures), Labor on 36% (33.6%) and the Greens (9%). The published 53-47 two-party preferred (the current election result being 53.4-46.6) is weaker for Labor than the primary vote shifts suggest it should be, which may be because they are still using preference allocations from 2010.

Further questions finding 38% thinking the election of micro-parties to the Senate “good for democracy” against 25% for bad, although I’d like to see more specific questions in relation to this topic. Forty-four per cent believe the lack of a Coalition Senate majority will make for benefit against 30% for worse. Respondents were asked about various aspects they might expect to get better or worse under the new government, including the surprising finding that cost of living and interest rates are expected to be worse. Other questions relate to the country’s economic outlook, all of which you can see here.

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  • 101
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    :lol:

    Hostage negotiation Training

  • 102
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    confessions

    I reckon Margie feels the same way about having to see the Abbott!!

  • 103
    liyana
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    The accommodation thing reeks of a man who pines for a solely masculine environment…A man who has never grown up and doesn’t feel comfortable in mixed (ie male and female) company.

  • 104
    alias
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    Spot on Liyana

  • 105
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    liyana

    It reeks of a man using this as a ruse to cover up his sham marriage

  • 106
    Outsider
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    And Labor would be well advised to avoid all comment on the AFP decision. It’s dangerous ground. It’s a stunt alright, but with a healthy measure of pragmatism. And far cheaper than any other alternative that would have been under consideration. High end, secure, Canberra accommodation doesn’t come cheap

  • 107
    psyclaw
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    Abbott is to reside with young impressionable cops, he embeds a military 3 Star Whatever into government decision making (“the 3 Star will decide whether or not to announce boat arrivals”), and he’s personally practised ‘copter flying, tank driving, gun firing etc etc in his frolics.

    Is this fool developing too close a link between the armed services and the rule of our country?

  • 108
    Outsider
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    Victoria. Just be careful. Your friendly lawyer friend speaking!

  • 109
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    Outsider

    The question needs to be asked in relation to Margie and the kids. Are they going to be getting security around the clock at the premises they will be residing?

  • 110
    Roxanna
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    Abbott told to adopt Victorian values

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/abbott-told-to-adopt-victorian-values-20130914-2trrk.html

    He already has.

  • 111
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    “@senatormilne: Post election I have no excuses and have started treatment for solar keratosis, sun damaged skin. Pretty awful weeks to follow.”

  • 112
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Outsider

    What I have said is nothing that has not been said in the past. These rumours have been floating about for years. I am only suggesting they are rumours, nothing more. :D

  • 113
    liyana
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Yes that too Victoria. Can we just agree that it reeks?

  • 114
    my say
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/abbott_attack_on_unions_5gBDcoKPdPonTTTpz8QiaJ

    Joanna Heath and Fleur Anderson

    The Coalition intends to abandon $1.5 billion of union-linked wage increases for up to 350,000 workers in aged and child care, challenging one of the union movement’s strongholds.

    A spokesman for Prime Minister-elect Tony Abbott confirmed the funding for higher wages committed by the Gillard Labor government would be redirected because the money was to be funnelled through agreements negotiated by unions, including the scandal-hit Health Services Union
    ===================================================================

    so will abbott be adopting the usa style of have a spokes person

    to chickEN little to face the ppl has not had
    a newS conf, to present himself to ppl first

    elect pm not to do so

    AND all pm elect sworn in by now

    hopeless

    why is he hiding

  • 115
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    victoria

    “sham marriage”

    It’s hilarious, really, that this is the party which refuses to recognise SSM.

  • 116
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Labor… with it’s lowest vote in over 100 Years, still refuses to accept the Coalitions mandate to Axe the Carbon Tax

    They truly are the most out of touch, elitist bunch of union hacks this country has ever seen.

  • 117
    my say
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    alarm bells ring for me

    PJK

    tweet up the top some where

    very scary

    so that’s why I am saying be a tweeter as well

    will the medi hide him

    will the people forget who is pm\

    when will he be seen ,

    this is all being ask on twitter please join in

  • 118
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    ST

    No Mandate. So get over it.

  • 119
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    “@judbell43: Insiders could have had this talk before the election talking about LNP policies? bit late talking about it now.”

  • 120
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    Labor MP Alan Griffin openly leaking against Gillard…

    Ahehehe

  • 121
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    Personally I don’t care where Abbott lives or how much it costs to accommodate his family in two residences.

    We know from their track record that Liberals say one thing and do another. So Liberal pledges to ‘end the waste’ are as meaningless as the paper they are written on.

    Agree with Outsider that Labor should ignore this.

  • 122
    zoomster
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    alias

    Fitz might have a point, if that was what really happened.

    It’s up to an individual MP and their consituents whether or not they’re ‘ejected’. Sure, they can lose the leadership, but that doesn’t automatically mean they have to leave Parliament.

    Billy Hughes is a fine example of this.

    The same applies to the US – Hillary is still there because that’s the choice she made, not because the Democrats somehow magnamaniously let her stay on.

    I know that many of us in the Victorian Labor party were pleased that Brumby decided to stay on when he lost the leadership in Opposition. Totally his decision, however.

  • 123
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    The accommodation thing reeks of a man who pines for a solely masculine environment…A man who has never grown up and doesn’t feel comfortable in mixed (ie male and female) company.

    You do know there are female police officers……

    It’s going to be a long decade for the Abbott haters.

  • 124
    feeney
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    confessions

    You just can’t let go of your Rudd hatred.

    Gillard’s description of her pain and emotional hurt after the Leadership vote is understandable.

    Is it not reasonable to think Rudd would have suffered similar emotional feelings after his 2010 dumping?

    The difference is he has never spoken about it.

    Just give it up, will you?

  • 125
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    You do know there are female police officers……

    Not in Labor Party minds… women only get a leg up by artificial feel good quotas, any woman who gets ahead in life on her own like Gina Rhineheart must be cut down.

  • 126
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Insiders scathing over Fitzgibbon supporting Rudd’s continuing leadership ambitions.

  • 127
    Al Dente
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Tisme:

    “Kirribilli House is a 20 minute drive from Rooty Hill.”

    Obviously been using Joe Hockey’s Eleventy calculator to work out travel times in Sydney.

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    rummel

    Its going to be a long three years for Abbott.

    So far Ministry not even sworn in and already splits starting to happen.

    With Palmer in parliament Queensland split comes to Canberra.

    For Abbott haters its popcorn time!!

  • 129
    ltep
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    Not really on board with bagging Abbott out for staying at the AFP college (incidentally, just down the road from me!). I really think it’s high time we build a new PM’s residence in Canberra – it won’t belong to either side, but the cheap attacks will still come.

  • 130
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    feeney:

    If you don’t like to read the truth about Rudd, then don’t.

    While it may give you some kind of satisfaction, yelling at me won’t atone for his behaviour the last 3 years.

  • 131
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    feeney

    Is it not reasonable to think Rudd would have suffered similar emotional feelings after his 2010 dumping?

    No one’s arguing that he didn’t. But instead of throwing his support behind the new leader, he encouraged a team of open detabilisers until he finally brought the government down.

  • 132
    ltep
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    guytaur, I think Palmer will miss out on being elected – his current lead is not large enough for the amount of votes remaining.

  • 133
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    Obviously been using Joe Hockey’s Eleventy calculator to work out travel times in Sydney.

    Google Maps on offpeak times which uses live traffic data.

    Try harder next time.

  • 134
    Tricot
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    On the basis of his first week failures’

    (Shane Wright – Economics writer in the West yesterday) “Abbott has not kept one of his Week 1 promises” and “He will really soon have to hit the road running”

    will make the dream of two terms for the Coalition and Abbott just that, a dream.

    I doubt whether Abbott can survive three years as leader while the party has just so many seats now within 1-2% of loss which will quite easily to the other side of the ledger next time around – actually maybe a little less then three years from now.

    Who knows, Abbott may make such a cock-up of the Senate, his sanity will completely leave him and take the electorate back to a DD. He will be absolutely thumped if he tries it and this threat is so much hogwash.

    Labor lost handsomely in seats but only marginally in many cases.

    Not much point worry about whether Labor, in its own right, out-polled the Liberals or not, or that for the equivalent number of votes, the Nationals got a swag of seats in the HOR and the Greens one. Them’s the rules of the game, though we have had a continuous whinge from the consevatives about “we wuz robbed” after 2010 with the same rules.

    One thing about conservatives they do hypocrisy better than the progressives

    Let’s just wait until thousands of jobs in the car manufacturing and allied industries disappear. “I will not be chasing the car industry with my cheque book”, said he.

    At least that should make BMWs cheaper for the masses.

    From now to June 30, 2014 it will be tough as Abbott has no policies in place and thereby no legislation. Most of it is to “cut this” and “change that”. This has been the case for three years.

    After June 30 an even more difficult Senate means his PPL is now dead in the water.

    And I see our most vocal conservative hacks here have followed an almost gold-plated predictable track over the past week or so.

    *Labor is disunited and will stay disunited. Ha Ha! You guys could not organise a chook raffle in a pub and similar original witty gems.

    *We won big and you guys are finished I tell you. Finished! Lie down and die! When we win it means we win and you lose. That is, it is now the tyranny of the majority of we 53% (TPP) who won to do as we like. (Obviously the words “I am now no longer leader of a tribe but leader of the country” does not sit well with the hacks.)

    *Abbott meant Day 1 meaning Day one of his choice. He did not really mean Day 1, Day 1, at all. If it were a Labor leader, the Murdoch press would be screaming “Liar”!

    *Look there are so many problems that Labor has left we need lots of “enquiries” to see just where those problems are. This will take us about 3 years to sort out. We really do need more time (Contrast with calls for parliament recalls for imagined “crises” a few days prior to the election.)

    *The boats are still Labor’s problem, but we are organising something called a “Three Star General” to fix it up. Then off to Indonesia at some time or another to sort out them little brown men and put them straight on that we mean business ‘cos Australia is now ‘open for business’.

  • 135
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    The cartoon in our local paper had a pair of red budgies stretched across Australia.

  • 136
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    Itep

    Awwwwwwww :sad:

  • 137
    liyana
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    yes Rummel I do…Do you think Tony will be sharing a flat with them?

    I’m pretty sure Abbott wont be in Government for a decade.I prefer to call myself an Abbott realist- as Victoria mentioned there are lots of ‘rumours’ about Tony Abbott. Sydney may be a big city, but it has a small town mentality

  • 138
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    The week was won by the Liberals as Labor are incapable of being a team, with team players. Once a factional warlord, always a factional warlord.

  • 139
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    yes Rummel I do…Do you think Tony will be sharing a flat with them?

    No, because I’m sure they are individual rooms.

  • 140
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    What? Is he GAY now? Peta will be disappointed.

  • 141
    ltep
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Tricot, if the Greens support the Coalition PPL, with amendments, then it will pass before or after 1 July 2014.

    I agree there won’t be a DD. The risks outweigh the benefits, and currently the Government doesn’t appear to have enough of a legislative agenda to make it worth it.

    It’ll be interesting to see what is in the Governor-General’s opening speech and whether it manages to be even more empty than the 2010 one.

  • 142
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    I’m pretty sure Abbott wont be in Government for a decade.I prefer to call myself an Abbott realist- as Victoria mentioned there are lots of ‘rumours’ about Tony Abbott. Sydney may be a big city, but it has a small town mentality

    What are these rumours you are talking about…………..

  • 143
    my say
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    sandyj ‏@bsadams25 6m
    Keep your eyes peeled for a male bike rider wearing budgie smugglers, Australia’s new PM has gone missing

    Retweeted by Michael Lee
    Collapse

    =========================================

    I have also noticed that the stories re HIM
    start of with

    SPOKESPERSON SAID SO are we getting the USA style

    where the pres. sends one person to do his work [speak for him]
    its not the aust way

    the libs here must be so disappointed captain abbott has not managed to stop one boat.

    lol

  • 144
    Outsider
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    Of course Victoria @ 109! They will be living at Kirribilli house. It’s an incredibly secure site. It’s even hard to park your car anywhere near!! My daughters went to school just around the corner. I know the area well!!!

  • 145
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    my say

    Be fair. Kevin Rudd is still PM. Albo is still DPM and so on.

    No LNP Ministry how can they stop the boats :lol:

  • 146
    New2This
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    MySay how is life under your tin foil hat… Have you come out of your Abbott proof bunker yet?

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    @abcnews: Health funding cuts blamed for mystery illness that swept through Melbourne’s Royal Women’s Hospital http://t.co/bRzMCcRp0O

  • 148
    DisplayName
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    Fran, david, we have a plan then ;) .

  • 149
    my say
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    OUTSIDER
    cannot agree with you labor have been too good mannered

    for years,

    we have to be a bit like them the public didn’t seem to worry about them yelling at us

    it seems.
    now get the gloves on not off

    JUlia Gillard lived in her own home 4 early two weeks

    well in to the negotiations with the ind.
    the security vans where outside her home

    till the afp said Pm please go to the lodge so we can look after u wtte/
    this bloke goes and hides at the AFP flat at our expense why not kirribli or just live in the lodge KEV has JG has

    give us strength and u want nothing said
    no it time to say what we should say

    no pussy footing
    or we could have him for ever

  • 150
    liyana
    Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Rummel- Try google.

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