The first ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Victoria has the Coalition maintaining a slight lead, contrary to the recent Newspoll result, although Daniel Andrews has his nose in front of Denis Napthine as preferred premier.
ReachTEL has returned to the Victorian state polling game after a three-month diversion for the federal election, producing better results for the Napthine government than the recent Newspoll with primary votes of 43.4% for the Coalition (including 4.3% for the Nationals), 35.8% for Labor, 11.0% for the Greens, 5.8% for the Palmer United Party and 4.1% for others. Using preferences as per the 2010 election, and making no distinction between the Palmer United Party and the others vote, this translates as a 51-49 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred. It was related in comments that Daniel Andrews nonetheless has a slight lead over Denis Napthine as preferred premier, which I take to have been 52.5-47.5. The poll also gauged opinion on the governments handling of education (11% very good, 22% good, 40% satisfactory, 15.5% poor, 11.5% very poor), health (6.3%, 18.7%, 30.6%, 21.1% and 23.4%) and transport (6%, 18.7%, 30.6%, 21.1% and 23.4%). Most of these numbers are courtesy of Generic Leftist on Twitter.
UPDATE: Full results, including approval ratings for Denis Napthine and more issues polling, here.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.