tip off

Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

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  • 51
    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Jackol@39

    Bemused, I know you’re smart enough to know what I mean. There’s a consensus here that we don’t start up the Rudd/Gillard nonsense, and when you’re challenged on perpetuating it you always claim “but someone else started it with provocative comment X”.

    Well, there was no provocative comment this time, you just leapt in with a bit of Gillard hate.

    You’re a tedious hypocritical bore who thinks a lot of himself.

    I was not aware of such a consensus, have not seen it observed and simply made a comment that was quite in context.

    Oh and BTW, I think confessions did throw in one of her snide remarks earlier today but I let it pass.

  • 52
    Asha Leu
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    @Sean the Ever-Optimistic 32

    Actually it’s 1 Nielsen Rogue and 1 Morgan which is doing what Morgan always does and leaning to Labor bias

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    The neat thing is, we’ll soon find out either way.

  • 53
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Debacles don’t happen under the reign of Tony the Terrific.

    Only under Tony the Terrible.

  • 54
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    Bernard Keane ‏
    OK here we go Labor's issued a media release with the Abetz quote pic.twitter.com/3LhqZc2reR

  • 55
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    I don’t like banning people lightly, but Can William ban both Jackol and bemused for like 48 hrs?

  • 56
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    “@FlatEarthGang: Shit @latikambourke is reporting this fairly, WTF is going on? #auspol”

  • 57
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    Burke doing very well… Thanks to Abetz’s spectacular own goal

    I think Colonel Klink will now be sent to the Russian Front. He gave Burke the one killer line of the day. Apart from that it wasn’t a great performance, I have to say.

  • 58
    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord@55

    I don’t like banning people lightly, but Can William ban both Jackol and bemused for like 48 hrs?

    Reason?
    We are having a polite discussion.

  • 59
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    Digging up the grave, bemused? That not reason enough?

  • 60
    Centre
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    Settle down Tisme, it is only a Morgan.

    Real polls would have it 52-51/49-48 to the Coalition.

    Give it time, things just might get interesting ;)

  • 61
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    Oh and Abbott has put his foot in it on intelligence. As soon as one doctor’s patient records are revealed to have been accessed.

  • 62
    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord@59

    Digging up the grave, bemused? That not reason enough?

    Who died?

  • 63
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    centre

    Newspoll is the one out on its own.

  • 64
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    Gillard/Rudd not in da house?

  • 65
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    Just got back from Japan – the situation with China is very scary, with China backing itself into a corner over the Senkaku Islands and Japan, Korea and the US determined not to allow China to set a dangerous precedent. US, Korean and Japanese military planes buzzing through the unilaterally declared Chinese ‘identification’ zone and China indicating that if this continues they are ready to take ‘defensive measures’. The majority of media coverage in J. was about this, and the general tone was that Japan and increasingly the US are starting to regard some level of military conflict with China as inevitable.

    Meanwhile Japan itself is about to abandon its limitations on military build up and the government is pushing through new laws on secrecy which will make it more autocratic. The ruling party’s main theme is a sort of revised Japanese nationalism and hostility to outsiders (be they Chinese or other).

    The consensus from experts is that the region is set for, at minimum, some very difficult diplomatic conflicts, and at worst a very serious war.

    Come home to… almost nothing about this in the media.

    My point being: given Abbott’s missteps to date on foreign policy, it is a very real national security concern that we have a hot headed incompetent in power at what is likely to be the most dangerous time in our region since 1945. Meanwhile our media is keeping the public comfortably ignorant about just what is going on to our north.

  • 66
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Latika Bourke
    Today is actually most fascinating because it gives us an indication of how PM Abbott is going to react when the political heat is applied.

  • 67
    frednk
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    ..
    Most serious commentators acknowledge that re-installing Rudd saved 20 – 30 seats.

    Really fed up with Rudd spear thowers boasting about the damage they did to the Labor party. We all know he was an __hole don’t rub it in.

  • 68
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    It’s a fun day when BO’F tells the Federal Libs to eat shit and die and Question Time in both Houses shows the Coalition to be a know nothing rabble.

  • 69
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    We are having a polite discussion.

    As the ABC is learning, even polite discussion is subject to censorship in Abbottabad.

  • 70
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    @Patrick/69

    So you saying I’m censorship?

  • 71
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    Real polls would have it 52-51/49-48 to the Coalition.

    Yes just like Newspoll.

    Morgan for many many years had a very obvious Labor bias… which magically would disappear a few weeks before an election where amazingly it would fall inline with other polls.

    Then Morgan changed their polling methods and I’m sure someone will correct me… started merging email/web polling with their face to face polling and were showing accurate polling inline with others. Now, just recently, they’ve decided their new polling method was way too accurate and have now gone back to face to face and SMS polling.

  • 72
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    PB @ 65

    Excellent post, IMHO.

  • 73
    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Jackol @ 39

    BTW, it is not a matter of hating Gillard. For the record, I am not fond of her but I don’t hate her.

    She was just a spectacularly unsuccessful leader who, rightly or wrongly, did not connect with the voters she needed to, and hence Labor got into a diabolical position. This is just a matter of fact as measured in opinion polls over many months.

  • 74
    Centre
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Abetz to the rescue.

    Money for the States to be spent in other areas and private schools only.

    Abbott back to where he started – Broken Promise!

  • 75
    citizen
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Pyne must be feeling awfully exposed at this point, having had his crutches kicked away by Abbott. Surely he will be become even more of a laughing stock over education.

    For Abbott of course, this spectacular backflip is just par for the course. In fact next week he will probably claim that everyone misunderstood what he said this week.

  • 76
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:06 pm | PERMALINK
    JacetheAce@1
    I thought the ALP had been wiped out for a generation?

    Having the sense to dump Gillard and re-install Rudd spared us that fate.

    The nonsense of treasonous whiteants has delivered us the worst rabble of a Govt in this country’s history.

  • 77
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    Patrick Bateman –
    I think it all comes down to how serious the Chinese are about testing the strength of the status quo.

    I, personally, find it very hard to believe that the Chinese leadership see anything but downside in military conflict at this time – they have a lot of eggs in the air at the moment, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. A military conflict will be very destabilizing for China, and China is not in a position to withstand much destabilization over a few rocks in the ocean.

    Following that logic, the Chinese are just bluffing and testing the waters to see if they could tip the status quo in their favour with little risk – the fact that the other countries in the region, and the US, are pushing back should be enough to call the Chinese bluff, and end this all with a few pointed comments and diplomatic sweeping-under-the-carpet.

    I hope.

    But I’m no expert.

  • 78
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    Bemused, we know your position. I’m sure you know mine. It’s past time where stating such things on this blog is at all helpful.

  • 79
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    BTW, it is not a matter of hating Gillard. For the record, I am not fond of her but I don’t hate her.

    Over and Over and Over again … boring .

  • 80
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    Patrick Bateman: thanks. That’s a mildly terrifying prospect.

    Let’s just stay out of it, tell them both that they’re our best friend in Asia, and think of all the iron ore we can sell both of them if it kicks off… what could go wrong?

  • 81
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord, can you please stop offering stupid advice on how I should run my blog.

  • 82
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/71

    Right, 2000 + sample, is small MOE.

    LNP Primary is down one on Morgan, but ALP gains on other parties.

  • 83
    BK
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Centre
    Let’s hope our magnificent MSM have a good look at Hansard to see what Erica had to say and really nail Aboot and Pyne with it.

  • 84
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Shorten again outshone by Burke.

  • 85
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    @William/81

    Sorry if I was “suggesting” anything, many of us get tired of debates surrounding the issue bemused and jackol.

  • 86
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/01/israel-negev-bedouins-day-of-rage

  • 87
    Geoff
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    @65
    Not much in the media but it is the coalition that is restoring funding in our Armed services that labor had gutted.
    If there is a conflict it will be on Labor’s head that our armed services are not up to scratch because they ripped out funding.

  • 88
    Spider
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:10 pm | Permalink
    I see that the Government has artfully ensured that the only woman in Cabinet is sitting within the scope of the camera while Pyne waxes purple.

    And no, I am not making an arcane reference to beauty and the beast.

    I am referring to the Coalition’s problem with women.

    —————————————————

    I’m sorry Boerwar, who are you referring to as the beauty, and who is the beast?

  • 89
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    citizen:

    Pyne must be feeling awfully exposed at this point

    I think it’s an assumption to state that Pyne has actual feelings.
    :D

  • 90
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    @JustinianNews: 2GB’s Hadley fails in defence of defamation case brought by wife of convicted child molester: http://t.co/7yqLiEAFnI

  • 91
    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    Rex Douglas@76


    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:06 pm | PERMALINK
    JacetheAce@1
    I thought the ALP had been wiped out for a generation?

    Having the sense to dump Gillard and re-install Rudd spared us that fate.


    The nonsense of treasonous whiteants has delivered us the worst rabble of a Govt in this country’s history.

    Rex, I am nowhere near that harsh on Gillard and her cabal. Calm down with the recriminations, she is gone as are the worst of her cabal.

  • 92
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    @Geoff/87

    Why should our Armed services be not gutted?

    At the expense of other services and/or policies?

    sortius ‏@sortius 42s

    Wasn’t the strategic review due today?#crickets #NBN #auspol

  • 93
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    Patrick Bateman, thanks for those comments. It’s because of the very serious situation in East Asia that Obama has been trying to extricate the US from the quagmire that is the politics of the Middle East, so that he can divert resources to the Pacific. Hence the deal with Iran, done over the head (most unusually for the US) of Israeli objections. I expect the US will also stop wasting its time trying to solve the Israel-Palestine issue, which has no solution.

  • 94
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    Luckily for all concerned, I’m not stupid enough to think banning Jackol would be a good way of dealing with the matter. Since you are, kindly pipe down.

  • 95
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

    Geoff:

    If there is a conflict it will be on Labor’s head that our armed services are not up to scratch because they ripped out funding.

    If there’s a conflict it will most likely be on Tony Abbott’s head for not being able to resolve it diplomatically.

  • 96
    Centre
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    Rex Douglas

    Christine Milne again outshone by…everybody!

  • 97
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    @William/94

    Okay.

  • 98
    bemused
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

    guytaur@90

    @JustinianNews: 2GB’s Hadley fails in defence of defamation case brought by wife of convicted child molester: http://t.co/7yqLiEAFnI

    Best news all day – even trumps Tone’s backdown which would have come sooner or later anyway.

  • 99
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

    Jackol –

    That was my opinion before I went. But reading about it in a lot more detail while there, and observing more closely the mood in Japan, the problem is essentially this IMHO. For domestic reasons, China has gambled on imposing this air defence zone (basically the new leadership is moving to demonstrate its anti-Japanese, pro-reclaiming ‘Chinese’ territory credentials). In so doing, it has (badly) miscalculated the response it would receive. It is now in a position where it has made a specific demand and has the USA, Japan and Korea very openly and provocatively defying that demand. Obama scheduled two B52s to fly right through the ‘identification zone’ while I was there.

    The danger is not that China thinks that a war is a good idea – I agree that cool heads in China would realise how bad this would likely be for all concerned. Even if China did have imperialist ambitions, it’s too early for them to pull the trigger on them – the US still has a huge technological advantage.

    The danger is that it becomes domestically untenable for the Chinese to back down, so they do something stupid like shoot down a Japanese plane. Warning shots have already been fired. If that happens the mood in Japan will likely dictate some sort of retaliation, and the Japanese will call on the Americans to honour their defensive pact. I don’t believe that the Americans in the age of the War on Terror have the same experience and finesse they had during the Cold War to negotiate their way through such things. At the same time, internal politics in China are so byzantine that it is not possible for Obama and his senior staff to deal directly with equivalents on the other side – their equivalents are an ever-shifting mass of inter-twined dynasties.

    The strongest factor against a hot war is that the Americans and Chinese have nukes, and while the Chinese are big on ‘face’ and domestic power struggles, they are not crazy and presumably realise the immense danger of mutual destruction if they end up in a shooting war with the US.

    Regardless, we have a bloke in charge who can’t simply say sorry to our nearest neighbour when that was obviously the sensible thing to do. And who has very closely aligned us with the Japanese/US position, so much so that China plainly regards us as interchangeable with them for the purposes of the stand off.

  • 100
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

    By my reckoning we’ve had three Education policies in five days.

    1. Gonski,

    2. Pyneski,

    3. Backflipski.

    And Pyne seems to be actually BRAGGING about it. Each version has received his total, triumphant committment… until he ditches it.

    Would there be one state premier, one parent, one teacher, one student or even just a reasonably interested punter in the country who can say – with certainty – just what the Coalition’s policy on Education really is?

    This Instapolicy – where the Coalition gets into a hole and just brainfarts its way out of it – is no way to run a country.

    Don’t worry about who gets what dollars. Or which school will be better off. They don’t have a clue either.

    At the moment, we don’t know if there is even a policy, much less the money to back it up.

    Joe Hockey must be sitting in his office now wondering why he ever trusted these turkeys from his own side to stick to their word on anything.

    How must other nations feel as they they see this shambles unfolding? SBY had better makes sure he gets Abbott to sign any future agreement in his own blood, and even then I’d send it for testing if I was him.

    Along with the rest of the nation.

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