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Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

True to form, Essential Research offers a more subdued reflection than its rivals of the apparent decline in the government's political stock.

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Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s direction, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48, although it may have been helped along a little by the use of preference flows from the recent election for the first time. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 36%, the Coalition down one to 44% and the Greens down one to 8%. We are also told the Palmer United Party is on 4%, a figure not usually provided by Essential. The poll also finds 53% opposed to lowering the $1000 GST threshold on imported goods, with 35% supportive; and 70% opposed to lifting the pension age to 70, with only 24% supportive. Other results deal with respondents’ media consumption and internet use.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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696 comments

696 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. [618
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, December 3, 2013 at 10:57 pm | PERMALINK
    @Sean/615

    Again idiot Tisme,

    All you care about is 5 Journalists.]

    And Roger East made six.

  2. @Henry 645

    [If the ABC streamed 730, 4 corners, Lateline etc live we wouldn’t be able to witness the magnificence of ABC journalists interviewing other ABC journalists about stuff we have already just seen live.

    Sheesh, come on guys, you know how it works.]

    True. It would be a damn shame to get no more of those cutting edge stories where Lyndal Curtis summarizes what a political figure is saying over the top of muted footage of them talking. Journalism at its best.

  3. Hmmm, so it was Uncle Johnny who was the first to sling the mud over the Jim Cairns/Junie Morosi affair, and in doing so, took parliament to unprecedented lows.

    Makes sense, don’t it ?

  4. Y Bob
    Unca John took parliament to lows we never knew existed. Every time you think you have seen the worst the libs can do, they surprise you.

  5. @Sean/653

    Perhaps you can think about all the poor people in Australia with your 80’s music.

    oh hangon, that would be a Disservice to the poor people, of which are a growing number in Australia.

  6. Meh, tell me something I didn’t already know.

    [AUSTRALIAN teenagers’ reading and maths skills have fallen so far in a decade that nearly half lack basic maths skills and a third are practically illiterate.

    The dumbing down of a generation of Australian teenagers is exposed in the latest global report card on 15-year-olds’ academic performance.

    Migrant children trumped Australian-born kids while girls dragged down the national performance in maths, the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) report, released in Paris last night, reveals.

    Australia’s maths performance dropped the equivalent of half a year of schooling between 2003 and 2012.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/pisa-report-finds-australian-teenagers-education-worse-than-10-years-ago/story-fni6ulvf-1226774541525

  7. That said, when the right wing reactionaries whinge about the ABC budget I caaan see their point when it comes to ABC 3. ABC 1, of course. ABC 2, yeah why not, a good spillover for content. ABC 24in theory, news so ok by me.
    But ABC 3…not so sure. Every time I flick over to it it has gone to the 21st century version of the test pattern.

  8. This may have already been posted by someone else, but here is a list of agreed names for the Victorian Leg Council seats that the ALP National Executive will approve this week or next.

    Northern Metro 1 – Jenny Mikakos (SL)
    Northern Metro 2 – Nazih Elasmar (LU)
    Northern Metro 3 – Burhan Yigit (LU)

    Eastern Metro 1 – Shaun Leane (LU)
    Eastern Metro 2 – Brian Tee (SL)

    Northern Victoria 1 – Steve Herbert (SL)
    Northern Victoria 2 – Daniel Mulino (LU)

    South East Metro 1 – Gavin Jennings (SL)
    South East Metro 2 – Adem Somyurek (LU)
    South East Metro 3 – Lee Tarlamis (SL)

    Southern Metro 1 – Philip Dalidakis (LU)
    Southern Metro 2 – Erik Locke (SL)

    Eastern Victoria 1 – Harriet Shing (LU)
    Eastern Victoria 2 – Vicky Setches (LU)

    Western Metro 1 – Cesar Melham (LU)
    Western Metro 2 – Khalil Eideh (SL)
    Western Metro 3 – Dr Stanley Chang (LU)

    Western Victoria 1 – Jaala Pulford (LU)
    Western Victoria 2 – Gayle Tierney (SL)

  9. Henry, the free-to-air channels have a fixed amount of bandwidth they have allocated to them permanently. They can divvy it up among various numbers of channels by splitting the bandwidth up in different ways – I don’t know what the actual numbers are, but it might be something like 2 HD channels or 4 SD channels etc. This can change dynamically based on the content. ABC3 shuts down in the early evenings freeing up whatever bandwidth it uses for higher def on their other channels if they can use it.

    Anyway, the upshot is that the number of channels you see in the program doesn’t really tell you anything about how much bandwidth they are using, and the amount of bandwidth the free-to-airs have doesn’t change over time.

  10. ABC 3 means parents can put that channel on, lock it in, and the kids can’t change the channel to the disturbing stuff that give kids nightmares: like news promos showing dead bodies being loaded into ambulances and close-up of blood stains, and video of Scott Morrison.

  11. [AUSTRALIAN teenagers’ reading and maths skills have fallen so far in a decade that nearly half lack basic maths skills and a third are practically illiterate.

    The dumbing down of a generation of Australian teenagers is exposed in the latest global report card on 15-year-olds’ academic performance.

    Migrant children trumped Australian-born kids while girls dragged down the national performance in maths, the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) report, released in Paris last night, reveals.

    Australia’s maths performance dropped the equivalent of half a year of schooling between 2003 and 2012.]

    The sooner we abolish the “states” and make one government answerable the better.

    But any rational solution to a problem is, of course, “un-Australian”.

  12. [The dumbing down of a generation of Australian teenagers is exposed in the latest global report card on 15-year-olds’ academic performance.]

    Compiled by whom, based on what evidence?

  13. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/03/australia-rated-alongside-syria-as-big-decliner-in-corruption-perception?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

    Transparency declines, Corruption increases, interesting..

    “Scandals such as the corruption findings against former NSW Labor ministers, claims of kickbacks on international contracts involving Leighton Holdings and allegations of corruption within the Reserve Bank note-printing subsidiary Securency have all contributed to perceptions of corruption, according to Transparency International.”

    & Don’t think the Coalition got off scott free either.

    “The decline mirrors the 2007 CPI when Australia’s ranking also dropped two places shortly after Australian Federal Police dropped criminal investigations into people involved with the Australian Wheat Board kickbacks scandal.”

  14. Puff, the Magic Dragon:

    and video of Scott Morrison.

    The video where Morrison was asked what keeps the earth aloft?

    “A boat” he responded. “The earth is held aloft on a boat.”

    “But what holds up the boat?” asked the journalist.

    “It’s boats all the way down” responded Morrison, confident his answer was definitive.

    “It’s boatles all the way down”

  15. The OECD Global survey in all major OECD countries shows that Australian kids ahve slippped behind many kids in other nations measured in this OECD survey

  16. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/03/australias-surveillance-achieved-too-much-to-stop-david-johnston

    [Australia’s defence minister, David Johnston, says the “5-Eyes” intelligence partners have achieved far too much with their co-operative surveillance programs to take a backward step now.

    In a recording obtained by the West Australian newspaper, Johnston warns an audience of defence industry representatives to expect more damaging intelligence leaks courtesy of the US National Security Agency contractor-turned-whistleblower, Edward Snowden.

    “We must assume the worst,” Johnston said. “Suffice to say it’s an area that I can’t get into in great detail, but I simply say assume the worst.

    “We are watching with great acuity what is happening in the space.”]

    Johnston proves he is a pompous git.

  17. http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=930588&vId=

    [Bishop to enter Jakarta spy talks]

    Presumably Indonesia is going to require Australia to commit to a cessation of espionage of all kinds, including electronic surveillance and interception of communications, or, at the very least, to agree that any future espionage be carried out jointly with Indonesia and in conformity with their laws.

    Australia is going to find it very difficult to agree to this, and yet it must do so if it is to get the relationship back on track.

    One thing is for sure: Bishop does not have the talent to handle this, and could easily make things even worse, as she has done in the past.