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Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

True to form, Essential Research offers a more subdued reflection than its rivals of the apparent decline in the government's political stock.

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Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s direction, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48, although it may have been helped along a little by the use of preference flows from the recent election for the first time. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 36%, the Coalition down one to 44% and the Greens down one to 8%. We are also told the Palmer United Party is on 4%, a figure not usually provided by Essential. The poll also finds 53% opposed to lowering the $1000 GST threshold on imported goods, with 35% supportive; and 70% opposed to lifting the pension age to 70, with only 24% supportive. Other results deal with respondents’ media consumption and internet use.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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696 comments

696 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. Boerwar

    A couple more yellows but too much noise to hear who they were. It seems as if those on Madame Speaker’s left are doing a round robin of yellows while no individual cracks it for a red.

  2. Boerwar

    Member for Kingston gets a yellow and then a red in very short order.

  3. mikehilliard

    Essential has no questions on the education chaos.

  4. Boerwar

    Rishworth managed to crack two yellows and a red in the same session, which must be a parliamentary record.

    Bishop cannot count.

  5. guytaur

    @SenatorLudlam: see how they justify it: AG Brandis pretends #NSA surveillance scandal just doesn’t exist – http://t.co/VfWR77nwU7 #QT #auspol #metadata

  6. Steve777

    Labor should choose its battles. Allow Abbott and Hockey to bluster on for a few more days then pass it, saying Abbott is just mad enough to damage the country if he doesn’t get his way.

  7. ruawake

    Wow Minister attends ministerial meeting, make a ministerial statement why don’t you.

  8. Steve777

    Re #6 – that was about the debt limit. The other thing is that we don’t want this to become a regular thing that would come back to bite a future Labor government.

  9. Boerwar

    Pyne just admitted that he did not know what was in the agreements because officials were still working it out.

    That should be headlines… if the journos are up to it.

  10. Boerwar

    Burke arguing the toss with Bishop again.

  11. ruawake

    Its blank stares time again from the Speaker.

  12. Rossmore

    Puff I believe Pyne as LotH changed the rules re supplementary questions….. they got turfed….

  13. Boerwar

    Bishop threatens Burke that she will deal with the issue ‘and with you’ later.

  14. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Turnbull getting ready to bullcrap on again.

  15. Centre

    Classic double standards from Bat Bishop who still attends party room meetings by the way 😡

  16. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Rossmore,
    Would not surprise me. These are democracy thieves (to quote Boerwar) after all.

  17. Boerwar

    SSO on Gonski coming up.

  18. mikehilliard

    Pyne will fluff this.

  19. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Bronwyn Bishop has trashed her legacy as Speaker. She will go down as a partisan useless hack.

  20. Boerwar

    mh
    No he won’t. He will simply answer a different question.

  21. Steve777

    As for TPVs, I’m in two minds. They didn’t work. If Morrison can easily find a workaround and keep issuing and reissuing extensions to temporary residence, maybe Labor should just let that one go, making it clear that they didn’t and won’t work. Then focus on the big items:
    1. Carbon pricing – easy – all the Coalition needs to do is demonstrate that they have a workable alternative plan that would work to meet their commitment to reduce emissions by 5% by 2020. Of course at the moment they don’t even have a plan that won’t work.
    2. Mining tax – the Coalition have to say how they will fix the hole in the budget, given that revenues from this tax in future years are projected to be much higher than has been received too date.

  22. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    ‘Panic deal’ getting a good run.

  23. zoomster

    One second Pyne tells us money isn’t important in education, the next it’s crucial…

  24. mikehilliard

    OH told me to turn that racket down. 😀

  25. Boerwar

    I don’t know why Labor is claiming Gonski. Rudd got rid of Gonski when he was buy rebranding all of Gillard’s achievements.

  26. Geoff

    wow do Labor have anything?
    How were these people ever in government?

  27. guytaur

    BW

    Shorten can claim all of Labor’s legacy. Confuses the LNP too.

  28. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Pyne saying a whole lot of nothing.

  29. guytaur

    “@Kimbo_Ramplin: I think we can all agree on one thing: Bronwyn Bishop is the Billy McMahon of Speakers. Incompetent. #qt”

  30. Kinkajou

    the teaboy is looking after seans gig….sean running the small business?

  31. Kinkajou

    sean @ question time?

  32. ruawake

    Geoff

    Why are the Liberal Party keeping ALP education policies? (apparently)

  33. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    BW
    Rudd’s legacy lives on, the bastard.

  34. mikehilliard

    Wonderful stuff from Truzz.

  35. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    It takes a long time to clean up after a sociopath.

  36. zoomster

    Warren Truss — Question Time doesn’t have ad breaks, so they use him to give viewers a chance to go the toilet…

  37. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Truzz is talking? I thought it was his ears flapping again.

  38. BK

    I’m just catching up with a QT recording having just come back from two lightning strike fires.
    I am struck with Abbott’s arrogance and the Speaker’s ineptitude.

  39. victoria

    Interest rates on hold

  40. Geoff

    WOW! Again! LOL why ask the same question 6 times in a row?
    It happens to be the same question as yesterday.

    Also where is the point of order? no point of order? come on labor getting sloppy.

  41. zoidlord

    No Jobs, More Boats, No NBN, RBA rates unchanged (looking at increasing next year).

  42. BK

    Pyne’s face is just so, so bashable!

  43. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    BK
    Don’t make Pyne offers like that.

  44. dave

    [ I am struck with Abbott’s arrogance and the Speaker’s ineptitude. ]

    Do they really think such carry on will endear them to voters?

    Sure they don’t give a stuff – so in a way let them do even worse – abbott will come a gutsa and it will be all the more enjoyable.

  45. Geoff

    here we go an point of order thought they were getting sloppy.

  46. Boerwar

    Dreyfus gets a yellow.

    Madame Speaker must have been shaken by yesterday’s events and is sprinkling yellows like confetti at a gala kerosene refinery opening.

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Abbott’s arrogance will be his undoing, the speaker should be replaced by a bowl of spud peelings.

  48. dave

    BK@43


    Pyne’s face is just so, so bashable!

    Backpfeifengesicht = A face badly in need of a fist.

  49. guytaur

    Using the Hogworts analogy for Parliament Its Dolores Umbridge presiding for Slytherin House.