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Federal Election 2016

Dec 4, 2013

Seat of the week: Ryan

The subject of a better-late-than-never Seat of the Week is the wealthiest electorate in Brisbane, which has reverted solidly to conservative type since a fleeting moment of glory for Labor in 2001.

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Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The western Brisbane seat of Ryan is dominated geographically by the Taylor Range to the city’s north-west, but nearly all of its voters are drawn from the suburban plains to the east and south. The suburbs of Ferny Grove and Enoggera at the northern end are Labor-leaning, but in the south are wealthier Indooroopilly and Kenmore on the northern shore of the Brisbane River, with conservative-leaning The Gap and Bardon lying in between. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, from territory which had been passed around over time between Lilley, Brisbane and Moreton. It has covered much the same area since, although between 1998 and 2010 the northern end was exchanged for Middle Park and Jindalee south of the river.

Ryan has been won easily won by the Liberals, and more lately the Liberal National Party, at every general election since its creation. Prior to 2001 it had had only two members, firstly Nigel Drury until 1975, and then Howard government Defence Minister John Moore. Then came the only interruption to the seat’s history of conservative dominance after Moore quit parliament when he lost his portfolio in a reshuffle. At a troubled time for the Howard government, the ensuing by-election in February 2001 was won by Labor with a 9.8% swing, giving them what proved an ill-founded confidence boost concerning their prospects at the election due later in the year. Labor member Leonie Short went on to defeat the following November at the hands of Liberals candidate Michael Johnson, a 34-year-old Hong Kong-born and Cambridge-educated barrister of part Chinese extraction. Johnson won a local preselection plebiscite amid loud complaints of branch stacking, and after a defeated candidate’s successful Supreme Court action against a move by the state executive to install its own candidate.

The statewide swing to Labor in 2007 cut the margin from 10.4% to 3.8%, from which it was further reduced to 1.1% by the redistribution that took effect at the 2010 election. Meanwhile opposition to Johnson was mounting within his own party, with reports emerging of an internal investigation into his expenditure records and fundraising activities. In May 2010 he was expelled from the party for attempting to broker an export deal between the Queensland Coal Corporation and a Chinese conglomerate during parliamentary sittings and with the use of his parliamentary email address. A preselection was then won comfortably by Jane Prentice, who served the Indooroopilly-based ward of Walter Taylor on Brisbane City Council. Johnson ran as an independent in 2010 but secured only 8.5% of the vote, with Prentice securing the seat for the LNP with a 6.0% swing. She picked up a further 1.4% swing in 2013, boosting her margin to 8.5%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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991 comments

991 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Ryan

  1. [Ellen Fanning
    Noted Prof Damien Kingsbury,Deakin Uni, says under Convention of Law of Sea ET would have got all the oil +gas.Helluva negotiation!#lateline]

    Night all

  2. Sean

    There was nothing wrong with how Swannie handling of the budget and if he had stuck to his 2009 budget forecast he would have been able to point to the fact that the budget and key economic data was ahead of schedule.

    The job for Joe is to demonstrate a strategy to return the budget to surplus or at least a stable debt position.

    Only 17% of Australia’s federal budgets have been in surplus.

  3. Re the CEFC”
    [apparently that actually makes a profit]

    Hasn’t yet, but it is forecast to.

    […and the Libs are using the Greens to get out of their promise to discontinue it.]

    If that is true, then the Greens deserve high praise.

  4. Before i go, it should be noted that in 2001 ALP senator Gary Gray was engaged by Woodside Petroleum as an adviser on their ultimately successful bid to repel the takeover of the company by the Shell Oil Company. Gray was then asked to join the company, becoming the Director of Corporate Affairs on the company’s executive board. During his time at Woodside, Gray represented the company before governments across the world, acting as a negotiator, advocate and leader.
    He left the company in 2007.

  5. [Ellen Fanning
    Noted Prof Damien Kingsbury,Deakin Uni, says under Convention of Law of Sea ET would have got all the oil +gas.Helluva negotiation!#lateline]

    I suspect that is part of the huffing and puffing. Possible they will get the lot certainly, but far from certain. Much actually depends on the Indonesian attitudes.

  6. Hello darlings, plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose no?
    I swan off and smell the roses and find that all the same old ingrained hatreds, all the arch poses and all the same ice blooded prose still festering the site. The pensioner warriors with their diluted spunk still limply spitting at us with the same old doggerel. The tethered malcontents who writhe and seethe if the other seals don’t clap in unison whenever a contrivance of epic inanity is not applauded. It’s all so…. lovely. The sewing circle is still there, the hall of mirrors has expanded somewhat and the utter self importance of the dirty dozen who spew their ”wisdom” on the other 20 visitors to the site shows no signs of abating. All of them marking time without realising that time is marking them. Wasting valuable time on a website of no consequence and ignoring the life in front of them. This site is their life and that is just too sad for words.

  7. [ vangoughsear2:

    Which one am I? ]
    you’re the one between vangoughsear2 wasting part of his life on this site and vangoughsear2 wasting even more of his life on this site

  8. In light of claims that government is super doper in its service deliver lets look at some evidence.

    A few interesting points from the Productivity Commission report from January 2013 titled Report on Government Services 2013.

    Some interesting stats

    Chapter 14 Services for people with Disabilities Page 58

    Box 14.
    Client and carer satisfaction

    data reported relate to NDA specialist disability services.
    Victoria Since 2007

    08, the Victorian Department of Human Services has surveyed a sample of carers using disability respite services to determine carer satisfaction with services.
    The survey results inform program directions and, until
    2011

    12, were also reported to
    the Department of Treasury and Finance as part of the Department of Human Services’ budget paper performance reporting.

    The Respite Carer Satisfaction Survey for 2011-12 found that:

    69 per cent of carers responded that they w
    ere satisfied with the respite support
    service they received

    11 per cent of carers reported being dissatisfied with respite services (down from 13 per cent in 2010/11)

    responses indicated that reported satisfaction may be influenced by factors such as
    the
    availability of services, rather than the quality of the services delivered.

    DHS has committed to undertake a range of projects aimed at improving respite supports in Victoria, including the development of a plan to ensure that a wide range of
    supports are able to meet the diversity of families/carers needs into the future

    ——————————————————

    The significant is there has been in recent years a greater focus on improving carer support services and these numbers show the improved satisfaction.

    Now if the system was made more available or to use my words efficient then it is possible that satisfaction can be improved.

  9. paaptsef is a prime example of a lowered tone exercising his lowered gifts in a devalued currency. Mores the pity really but then I expect he is used to a lowly place in society.

  10. [zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 5, 2013 at 1:41 am | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/973

    Is that why Ocean Protector is taking so long to get back online?]

    Should I understand this?

    I don’t.

  11. Page 71 Box14.21 Labour force participation of primary carers of people with disability

    Notes something which i bang on about repeatably

    Higher or increasing labour force participation rates for primary carers of people with disability are desirable. Higher rates are likely to increase the quality of life of primary carers of people with disability by providing greater opportunities for self-development.

    The report goes on too show that the numbers attending higher education are lower than the able bodied yet we are too believe the disability sector is maximising opportunities.

    My other leg needs pulling

  12. Mod, you are obviously untethered on the continent. Enjoy your trip. Good night.

    ad.
    [Should I understand this?]
    It’s a joke. A j o k e.

  13. On page 79

    The Disability Employment Services (DES)

    Employment Support Service(ESS) program was in operation during the entire 2011-12 year. ESS assists
    job seekers with permanent disability and an assessed need for long term, regular support in the workplace. Job seekers receive tailored services that are flexible and responsive to both their needs and those of employers.

    As at 30 June 2012 there were 194 organisations delivering ESS from 1130 sites and for the 2011/12 financial year there were around 127000 participants referred to the program.

    The proportion of ESS job seekers who achieved a sustainable employment outcome (at their assessed benchmark hours of 8, 15 or 30 hours of work per
    week for 26 weeks) was 28.8 per cent as at 30 June 2012.

    It should be noted that comparisons to Disability Employment Network (DEN was
    the previous program) outcome rates should be done with care. The requirements regarding the payment of outcome fees have been tightened under DES to reward genuine sustainable employment at the participants work capacity with assistance.

    —————————————————-

    This whole area of government looks nice on paper but the main weakness is it doesn’t involve any recruitment agencies either directly or indirectly.

    I know from a number of recruiters that it is mostly invisible so whilst it is good to have such a system in place i doubt it is efficient.

    I have even met public sector recruiters that have never heard of it, it has next to no public profile and this needs to be addressed.

    No point in building the disabled hopes up for nothing.

  14. [DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, December 5, 2013 at 1:57 am | PERMALINK
    Mod, you are obviously untethered on the continent. Enjoy your trip. Good night.]

    Thanks, good night.

    [It’s a joke. A j o k e.]

    Its not funny. ….because I don’t understand it. understand it

  15. @Mod Lib/982

    If DisplayName can get it, and understand it’s a joke (regardless if you think it’s not funny or not to you), then perhaps something wrong with you, and not the rest of us?

    Have fun on ya holiday 🙂

  16. [Mod lib doesn’t understand humor, it’s a typical trait of those on the right.]

    Dont know about that. I was just reading an article about Beasty Boy Bernardi’s latest rant, and then headed over to Menzies House and NutterTruckers for a read.

    They might not understand it, but they have humor in their souls that shines through. 🙂