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BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

2516
  • 2051
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    BS

  • 2052
    Centre
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    Had Gillard never adopted Greens carbon tax policy, her popularity would not have been so shattered that Rudd was needed to lead the party to the election.

    So there; Rudd haters, blame the Greens – again!

  • 2053
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    BS. Greens are not at fault for the rabid ditch the Witch signs and the media supporting the mendacity of the LNP.

    On your analysis PMJG destroyed herself. Again not the fault of the Greens.

    You have no leg to stand an argument on.

  • 2054
    victoria
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

    guytaur@2046

    Great summary of the indonesian saga. Also loved the video presentation. Especially the comment that Abbott should be replaced as PM because some village is desparately looking for its idiot. Classic!!

  • 2055
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    CENTRE – Readers of the Murdoch press must be dying of boredom right now (despite being right-wing lunatics) because they’re being served a diet of total mashed-up pap. Their circulations must be plummeting.
    I always thought the best thing that could happen to Fairfax was the libs winning office. Suddenly their papers are relevant and alive. They certainly know what’s good for them.

  • 2056
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    Where you are making sense I thought I would give this a try

    “@guytaur: @ABCFactCheck Is Abbott right to call an ETS a tax? #auspoI”

  • 2057
    Centre
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur

    I didn’t say the Greens were responsible for the ditch the witch and Brown’s bitch signs.

    Labot had a policy for action on climate change. That policy was clearly for an ETS. Gillard said there would be no carbon tax under a government she leads.

    So, what happens, the Greens get their carbon tax policy…. Goodbye Julia!

    Will the Greens claim a third Labor leader’s scalp?

    Fat chance, safe to say never again!

  • 2058
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    To say its the Greens fault that PMJG, Emmerson and Combet failed is just pure fantasy.

    They failed because the media let one side make continual lies. Nothing to do with the Greens.

  • 2059
    Centre
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur

    Yes, Gillard and Combet did fail. They failed for adopting Greens carbon tax policy.

    Bob Brown even said that the carbon tax was Milne’s baby on Q&A.

    Gillard’s popularity was shattered because of it. You know it, I know it, everybody knows it.

    It’s priceless trying to deny it :lol:

  • 2060
    geoffrey
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    ok i missed this one on PB but can anyone see plausible logic or even politics behind green support of raising debt ceiling? two reasons i have heard – to make borrowing more transparent, and to prevent spending cuts (presumably by more debt) are contradictory and not convincing – esp latter. Is this a meg less moment for greens? if so it seems to have gone conveniently under the radar – in part because of NM death.

  • 2061
    Jackol
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    Is this a meg less moment for greens?

    No.

  • 2062
    BK
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    Carberry out! A briliant catch by Warner.

  • 2063
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

    They didn’t want the debt ceiling raised, they wanted it gone. What happened wasn’t a trade, it was a coincidence of objectives.

  • 2064
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

    BK:

    What a stunning catch!

  • 2065
    BK
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    fess
    One of the best!

  • 2066
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    Again you prove you don’t get it. Just look at today. They are calling a trading scheme a tax.

    It could be a bank teller machine giving money out to the population and they would be calling it a tax costing people money.

  • 2067
    Centre
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    G @ 2060

    The Greens are suffering from a severe case of irrelevancy syndrome.

    That is all!

  • 2068
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    While the travails of the former Government cannot be put down entirely to the media, it played a big role. Political parties spend millions on political advertising. Why? Because it works. Ditto clubs wanting to oppose Pokie reform and miners not wanting a new tax. In Sydney, during the recent
    Federal election campaign, the biggest selling newspaper gave over its front page and acres of newsprint inside to push the cause of the Coalition. You can’t buy that sort of advertising. This after three years of rubbishing the previous government, it’s PM, it’s ministers and it’s program. The story seems to have been the same in other cities and regions. It didn’t change my vote and I’m sure it didn’t changes that if anyone here but it almost certainly added a percentage point or two to the Coalition side of the 2PP ledger.

  • 2069
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    BK – Sounds like you’re enjoying the Cricket.

  • 2070
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    @GrogsGamut: Geez, 13 hours, still no change. Bruce Billson told parliament my own marriage would feel diminished by now.
    http://t.co/wpBXCPKGxv

  • 2071
    Jackol
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    It does seem a different cricket team.

    Credit to Lehmann, he seems to have started getting things ticking over again.

  • 2072
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

    @senatormilne: Busy day for weddings in ACT, love and best wishes to all couples enjoying equality under the law. Let’s hope High Court doesn’t overturn it

  • 2073
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    You are wrong. That is all :cool:

  • 2074
    Centre
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

    guytaur

    The carbon tax was such a political killer for Gillard after she adopted Greens policy that the Coalition wants all forms of carbon pricing labelled a tax.

    Well, you can’t blame them if Labor keeps allowing them to get away with it.

    Still, the truth is the ETS would never have been called a carbon tax had they listened.

    Keep away, bad news!

    *catch u later

  • 2075
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    Steve77

    You are mostly right. What you are not right about is the media doing its job. Conveying facts not propaganda. If the majority of voters had been informed of the facts and when what was said was not a fact Abbott would have lost.

  • 2076
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    See 2073

  • 2077
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

    Gillard was destroyed by Rudd. Rudd and Rupert to be precise. The Greens, as usual, go for short-term gain instead of long-term effectiveness, and provided Rupert with the ammunition.

  • 2078
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

    Puff

    The Greens had nothing to do with leader troubles giving Murdoch sideshow ammunition. In fact it says a lot that they stayed out of it. Along with the Crossbench.

    Oh and the Crossbemch also agreed to the deal it was not just Labor alone.

  • 2079
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    After the 2010 election Gillard should have said to the Greens: “I said there would be no carbon tax, and there will be no carbon tax. So let’s come up with a market-based scheme that will pass the Senate.”

  • 2080
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    “I said there would be no carbon tax, and there will be no carbon tax. So let’s come up with a market-based scheme that will pass the Senate.”

    Agree.

  • 2081
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

    All of Rudd, Gillard, Labor in general and the Greens made mistakes. The Coalition – a more deceptive, dishonest bunch you’d be hard pressed find – were aided by an incompetent, compliant and/or willing media. The public was lazy and disengaged.

    Basically a failure at all levels, across the board :P .

  • 2082
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

    But of course she was only in that position because of Rudd’s failure of nerve after the Senate rejected the CPRS at the end of 2009.

  • 2083
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    Well that is happening now. It is still being called a tax. Again I do not blame Labor for this.

    Media should factually inform. Its like the media is saying the sky is purple

  • 2084
    bemused
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

    Psephos@2079

    After the 2010 election Gillard should have said to the Greens: “I said there would be no carbon tax, and there will be no carbon tax. So let’s come up with a market-based scheme that will pass the Senate.”

    That would have required negotiation, not mere surrender.

  • 2085
    deblonay
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

    Right-wing US Judge critical of Papal views on Capitalism
    _________________
    A US judge, a favourite of FOX News has lashed to Pope and said he should concentrate just on faith and morals and cut-out his critique of capitalism
    ____________

    http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/andrew-napolitano-pope-francis-capitalism-wrong/2013/12/06/id/540464?ns_mail_uid=81106491&ns_mail_job=1549122_12062013&promo_code=15DAE-1

  • 2086
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

    Rudd’s failure of nerve

    Again agree.

    That’s when things really started to go to s%it.

  • 2087
    bemused
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

    Psephos@2082

    But of course she was only in that position because of Rudd’s failure of nerve after the Senate rejected the CPRS at the end of 2009.

    Oh yes, I remember now, when Gillard and Swan advised dropping it.

  • 2088
    geoffrey
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:12 pm | PERMALINK
    Puff

    The Greens had nothing to do with leader troubles giving Murdoch sideshow ammunition. In fact it says a lot that they stayed out of it. Along with the Crossbench.

    —– political fantasy #1: the greens are cleanskins who never harm, do no harm, have no responsibility and need no apologise.

    your comment is naive.

  • 2089
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

    geoffrey

    Political fantasy one is Labor blaming the Greens for Labor faults

  • 2090
    imacca
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

    But of course she was only in that position because of Rudd’s failure of nerve after the Senate rejected the CPRS at the end of 2009.

    Yup. Would be a very different place now if Rudd had gone to that DD. Libs were in disarray, and everything was very focused on carbon pricing.

  • 2091
    slothy
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    Centre @ 2049

    Abbott cannot be allowed to get away with calling the ETS a tax because it is a trading scheme and not a tax.

    Trouble is that it has always been an ETS, albeit with a fixed price initially, and Labor was too stupid to defend it as such for 3 years, so that bird has flown.

  • 2092
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    We’re doing it again it seems:

    Oh yes, I remember now, when Gillard and Swan advised dropping it.

    After Rudd wimped on the DD they recommended ‘not talking about’ the ‘greatest challenge’ for awhile.

    One poster never gets this bit.

  • 2093
    bemused
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

    imacca@2090


    But of course she was only in that position because of Rudd’s failure of nerve after the Senate rejected the CPRS at the end of 2009.


    Yup. Would be a very different place now if Rudd had gone to that DD. Libs were in disarray, and everything was very focused on carbon pricing.

    Yep! It was all the wicked Rudd.

    Until you look at the facts of what was going on in the ‘kitchen cabinet’.

  • 2094
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    Oh yes, I remember now, when Gillard and Swan advised dropping it.

    Rudd made the decision though. Stop deflecting.

  • 2095
    Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

    I am happy with the World Cup draw. We’ll get the hard bit done straight away instead of at the end.

  • 2096
    bemused
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

    CTar1@2092

    We’re doing it again it seems:


    Oh yes, I remember now, when Gillard and Swan advised dropping it.


    After Rudd wimped on the DD they recommended ‘not talking about’ the ‘greatest challenge’ for awhile.

    One poster never gets this bit.

    It was only ever delayed until the anticipated change in the Senate composition after the 2010 election.
    But the delivery of this message was very poorly handled.
    Rudd was counselled against a DD by others in the leadership group.
    Regrettably, he heeded that advice. But yes, in the end he owns it.

  • 2097
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    What’s the point of arguing about this? Everyone has become more settled in their opinions, not more amenable to persuasion.

    The same/similar collection of facts, different views and conclusions, and any new evidence (if any) is only likely to be taken in context of already formed perspectives.

  • 2098
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

    DN

    Seeing reality is important. Some in Labor are still blaming the Greens for stuff that has nothing to do with the Greens.

    Once they stop doing that and look at the issues then that period will become history.

    Another example is the economics. Labor did a great job as economic managers but you would not know it from media.
    Nothing to do with the Greens.

  • 2099
    geoffrey
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    i only wish those on labor in recent years could have shown the same magnanimity to their own as Mandela did to lifelong enemies. That is, either Rudd or Gillard needed to sacrifice a bit more for a greater good. I don’t think either can fully rest on their laurels.

  • 2100
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    It’s not like you guys don’t know this so I can only assume you’re just determined to make sure the ‘correct’ version is put out there whenever you think history is being ‘subverted’ :P .

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