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Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first Newspoll since the government’s self-inflicted Gonski wound finds the pollster joining Nielsen in the 52-48 club.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.

Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.

2518
  • 51
    sohar
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Joe and Mal are probably manning the phones as Tony wings his way to Soweto with his mate Bill.

  • 52
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    I don’t see Tone bring dumped, primary reason being most of that frontbench knows it will be history without Tone.

    I don’t think any of the three main candidates Bishop, Hockey, Turnbull have a clear level of support over the other two.

    At least with the ALP in 2010 Gillard was always the natural successor to Rudd.

  • 53
    bug1
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    With some luck the WA senate vote could perhaps get 3 senators from ALP/Green, that will make it much hard for the Libs to negotiate bills through the senate (and they have not shown any ability to nogotiate anything in the 6 years thatit didnt matter).

  • 54
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Steve777

    I think a May Double Dissolution is off the cards.

    Given that the senate that was elected at the election which gave Abbott the mandate he asserts he has, it’s a stupid idea. How can you deny that mandate and claim that mandate anyway? Surely as a matter of theory if not practice, they need to rule on the issue?

  • 55
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Well strike a light, PB is a Tory free zone tonight. At the first sign of strife they disappear into their bunkers…

  • 56
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    So no DD. Interesting elections coming up in WA and Qld

    The last time there was a Senate election which did not coincide with a Reps election was in 1970. The punters treated it as a giant by-election, and elected three DLP Senators and an independent. I expect the main beneficiary in WA will be Palmer, who seems to have captured the public’s fancy for the moment. It’s hard to see the Libs failing to win three seats, but who knows? We might get 2 Lib, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 PUP.

  • 57
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Of course the next election is probably 33 months away and there’s lots of water to flow under the bridge yet.

    But this will sure test their equanimity. It’ll be great to watch this cat amongst the pigeons.

    When you’re already off balance and everything is turning to shite, a little additional pressure from another source rarely improves things.

    Conservo voters should watch n weep.

    You here Tism? And where are you Mod Lib?

  • 58
    Player One
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Doing thing like lowering flags for an icon of our age like Mandela resonates with voters. They see it for the mean spirited act it is.

    Of course they do – I’ve not spoken to anyone that was not utterly disgusted by such a despicable and petty act of disrespect.

    Fortunately, the Australian public has a long memory for this kind of low act, because they realize it makes us look like a bunch of anglo colonial hicks.

    I think it is very telling that one of Rudd’s first acts in parliament was a heartfelt apology to Australian Aboriginals, whereas Abbott’s was a studied insult to African Negroes.

    But the worst thing is that I don’t think it is coincidental – I’m fairly sure he did it with full knowledge of the message it would send to the world.

  • 59
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Oh goody tonight I’m not a Tory :)

  • 60
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Actually Mod Lib and Cranky have been pretty quiet of late.

  • 61
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    rossmore.

    Thanks. I look forward to the day Labor can use it as a campaign slogan. :)

  • 62
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    The punters treated it as a giant by-election, and elected three DLP Senators and an independent.

    Sorry, 2 independents, Negus and Townley.

  • 63
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    BBC launches 5 new HD channels:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25298109

    “The new channels, which will launch on Tuesday, are BBC Three HD, BBC Four HD, BBC News HD, CBeebies HD and CBBC HD.”

    North Korea confirms removal:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25295312

    “The KCNA report accuses Mr Chang of being part of a faction working against the North Korean state.”

  • 64
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Looks like Tones has been rumbled by the voters, barely 3 months in.

    Is this an Australian record for shortest time after the election that support for a first time government fell into election losing territory, and by so much?

  • 65
    confessions
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Abbott’s tried to do Mr Positive and Mr Statesman for some time now – flicking the switch or whatever.

    Maybe voters just aren’t buying it after he’s had an entire political career of happily being portrayed as a thuggish bruiser, and because this new Abbott jars with how they’ve come to see him, are completely distrustful of him. In which case it probably only gets worse as people’s suspicions intensify. The stumbles and broken promises won’t be helping on that front either.

    Dunno, just throwing it out there. But it would help if we had a modern day precedent for the crashing support (and so soon) in the life of a newly elected govt. The coalition were elected almost exactly 3 months ago. 3 months!

  • 66
    briefly
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    21
    confessions

    Abbott: Satisfied 40, Dissatisfied 45
    Shorten: Satisfied 44, Dissatisfied 27

    When was the last time we saw a first term LOTO record higher satisfaction ratings than a first term PM so soon into the new govt?

    Net-sat is now clearly negative for Abbott. We’ve seen peak Tone: it’s all downhill from here. A few more months of this and the LNP will be leaking against Abbott from every direction.

  • 67
    swamprat
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Abbott wanted Labor to give the people a Christmas present but the “people” have given Labor a Christmas present!

  • 68
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Player One “it makes us look like a bunch of anglo colonial hicks”.

    Note that Cameron did order flags at half mask when the news emerged.

    Its Abbott who is stuck in the past, not the Anglos.

    Abbott is a kinda sober Les Patterson.

  • 69
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    PB has been a difficult place lately for anyone who has any Liberal leanings. There has been precious little to argue for so if you are not totally agin’ the Libs it’s just easier to say nuffin’.

  • 70
    confessions
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    So no DD. Interesting elections coming up in WA and Qld

    Wonder how Bill Glasson’s feeling.

  • 71
    Wakefield
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Long way to go yet – driving Abbott/Murdoch support down to about 30% should help sort out their regressive agenda. Also requires some smart thinking from the unions, Greens, Labor and serious left and community activists to do some positive campaigning on issues of concern to general population rather than mindless sniping at each other.

  • 72
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Just Me

    The other day i saw a video from the ABC which compared this government with the early days of the Rudd and Howard government and it is a long way between those two which both saw big honeymoons.

  • 73
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Shorten: Satisfied 44, Dissatisfied 27

    Pretty amazing numbers.

    Steady as she goes, Bill. Let Abbott do all the hard lifting for you. :)

  • 74
    confessions
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    We passed Peak Tone ages ago. The only thing keeping him afloat was Labor infighting, disunity and leadershit wars.

  • 75
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    56

    Palmer will be a big beneficiary on primary vote, especially with all the advertising he is going to use, but he may not do so well on preferences because the micro parties may gang up on him because of his ability to get primary votes.

    If the Government was having a good honeymoon then the third Liberal Senator would be untouchable but they are not and so it is not out of the question.

    It will probably be ALP 2, Green 1, and either Liberal 3 or Liberal 2 and Palmer or other 1.

  • 76
    fredex
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    And it’s not all down to Abbott.
    Hockey and the blatant hypocrisy of his extra $200 billion
    Morrison and his .. well, lots of things
    Pyne and Gonski
    Hunt refusing to go to international climate conference
    Bishop the elder’s incompetence
    Ditto for Bishop the younger.
    More.

    Its a COALition failure with their leader leading the pack at failure.

  • 77
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Davidwh

    True this government has made life difficult for its supporters, i have tried to find some positives but as i sort of expected from Tone it has been hard to find any positives.

  • 78
    confessions
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Even Newman got a honeymoon, and from what we hear coming out of Qld, the govt there is very, very ordinary.

  • 79
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    My suggestion some time back that Abbott wouldn’t last 18 months is starting to look pretty good.

  • 80
    Player One
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Its Abbott who is stuck in the past, not the Anglos.

    Yes, of course. No offense to Anglos intended – except to those with a “Cecil Rhodes” complex!

  • 81
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    And then you got the minor things, TPP Agreement, Jobs that are not getting created, Coalition NBN not being created fast enough etc etc.

  • 82
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    Fran

    Who do you think would replace him?

  • 83
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    @Confesssions/78

    lackluster (?) is the word I’d use.

  • 84
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Wakefield

    At this point of time i think everyone does keeps doing what they are doing, the Unions need to be a bit cautious for if Tone does start to panic he will want an Industrial fight or something

  • 85
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Psephos@48


    “This is the best Newspoll for Labor since…”

    Just after Gillard’s so-called misogyny speech?


    No, I think it’s the best since before Rudd dropped the CPRS in early 2010. But I don’t have a full table in front of me.

    There was a 52-48 to ALP in Nov 2010 after Gillard won the election. And a 55-45 just after Gillard was installed. Last lead was a 51-49 in March 2011 which was probably a rogue poll.

  • 86
    Wakefield
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Bring on the Bronwyn Bishop/Kevin Andrews leadership team. Been regular contenders for leadership spoils. Time they got a chance!

  • 87
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Hockey reduced his chance at becoming leader with his Graincorp decision by burning bridges with the economic dries. Had he approved it and then probably been sacked for it or resigned rather than refuse it, he would be in a good position with the dries. Such a rebellion would have been more likely to occur latter in the government.

    Turnbull is far to unpopular in the parliamentary party to be elected leader.

  • 88
    silentmajority
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    I picked it! I am spartagus!

  • 89
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Well its Goodnight with :) from me

  • 90
    Asha Leu
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Well, Sean called this one.

    @Sean Tisme 1317
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 10:40 pm

    I’m feeling a 53% TPP to Coalition Newspoll tonight

  • 91
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    My suggestion some time back that Abbott wouldn’t last 18 months is starting to look pretty good.

    Yes it is. But after all the rhetoric they expended on Rudd v Gillard, they will have to be pretty desperate to do it.

  • 92
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    MB

    Who do you think would replace him?

    Hard to say … Maybe Hockey … I’m not ruling out an early election given the evident divisions over culture within the party. Being in front and in office is all the hard core right has to offer. If that goes, what is there to keep them disciplined?

  • 93
    briefly
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    74
    confessions

    briefly:

    We passed Peak Tone ages ago. The only thing keeping him afloat was Labor infighting, disunity and leadershit wars.

    He very temporarily got into positive net-sat territory around election time and immediately after. He’s going to find it very hard to re-gain the confidence of voters now that they can really see what a lying, loafing, empty-hearted bullying lump of spite he really is.

  • 94
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    @Wakefield/86

    Bishop is half the reason Coalition are in trouble atm.
    Kevin Andrews is the current Social Services Minister, cutting large amounts of money out of Welfare Services ($3 billion to be exact), just a start.

    No thanks, I’d rather have an election.

  • 95
    Wakefield
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Beemer – Labor needs to be bold. Social cohesion and community values are seriously under threat from the Abbott agenda. Everyone needs to be putting shoulder to wheel of community campaigning to counter Murdoch and Abbott and their minions lies.

  • 96
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    Tom

    Which i think increases the odds that Tone wont be dumpted unless Julie Bishop moves on him, i can’t think of anyother suitable candidates unless Josh Frydnberg is hoping all those T.V appearances will get him noticed.

  • 97
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    There was a 52-48 to ALP in Nov 2010 after Gillard won the election. And a 55-45 just after Gillard was installed. Last lead was a 51-49 in March 2011 which was probably a rogue poll.

    Thanks KB. So it’s the best Newspoll for Labor since Carbon Tax Day. I’ll settle for that.

  • 98
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    This LNP Gov is certainly living up to expectations. Bereft of ideas, still in opposition mode. Something has to give soon. My punt … they are so desperate to retain power we will see a cave in on the NBN and the ETS.

  • 99
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    This LNP Gov is certainly living up to expectations. Bereft of ideas, still in opposition mode. Something has to give soon. My punt … they are so desperate to retain power we will see a cave in on the NBN and the ETS.

  • 100
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Wakefield

    Yes the ALP needs to be bold but at this stage the government is going themselves in, the ALP has several key performers who appear to have hit their stride in and out of parliament.

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