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Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first Newspoll since the government’s self-inflicted Gonski wound finds the pollster joining Nielsen in the 52-48 club.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.

Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.

2518
  • 101
    Asha Leu
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    I think its safe to say that honeymoon is over.

  • 102
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    david

    Oh goody tonight I’m not a Tory

    As you well know, Tories are a bunch of lying, mean, nasty, horrible, evil, lollipop-from-baby-stealing, lowlife pondscum.

    You seem decent, so obviously you’re not one!

    :angel:

  • 103
    Player One
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    Yes it is. But after all the rhetoric they expended on Rudd v Gillard, they will have to be pretty desperate to do it.

    No problem – when the time comes, Abbott will simply be instructed to resign by his mentor, adviser and confessor, George Pell. He will then go quietly.

  • 104
    John Ryan
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    In WA in my humble opinion the best thing Labour can do is dump Bullock the shoppie union boss and get a rank and file election person elected in.
    Bullock is despised by most has done nothing to deserve his place,if they want an extra place in the senate dump him,he is lead in the saddlebags
    I intend to ring my local state member tomorrow as he was instrumental in foisting Bullock on the Senate ticket

  • 105
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    Bishop is half the reason Coalition are in trouble atm.

    That’s a very “insiders” view. Most floating voters have never heard of her. No, this is all Abbott’s own work. He is just not impressing the punters at all.

  • 106
    Wakefield
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    William – time to do a new Bludger-track – you know you want to!

  • 107
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    But after all the rhetoric they expended on Rudd v Gillard, they will have to be pretty desperate to do it.

    I can see them becoming that desperate in that time — maybe earlier. If the regime continues as it has after the summer hiatus — when LNP MPs sit down and wonder what the future holds, there will be a significant problem stopping leaks against the regime. Credlin would be an obvious lightning rod for discontent.

  • 108
    Slav G
    Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    I’m curious, is there going to be WA senate vote again or if not what happened with the missing votes?

  • 109
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    I believe there will be another vote

  • 110
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    n WA in my humble opinion the best thing Labour can do is dump Bullock the shoppie union boss and get a rank and file election person elected in.

    *Sigh. Do you really think most voters know or care? He’s just a name on a ballot paper. And if perchance voters do know or care, Bullock is much more in tune with WA attitudes than Pratt or Ludlam.

  • 111
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    @Psephos/105

    You don’t even need to under this goverment :D

  • 112
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Time for Joe to make his move, while Abbott is out of circulation.

    A quick backdoor visit to Palazzo Howard should do the trick, especially if he offers Hyacinth the Governor Generalship.

    You know it makes sense.

  • 113
    Wakefield
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Psephos – I suppose you could blame Abbott for getting Pynochio to do his stoopid act on schools – but Pynochio definitely deserves some credit. Next we need Health Minister Dutton to start talking about Medibank privatisation and health cuts.

  • 114
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    DN it depends on the time and the person. However I will answer to almost anything even comrade from my old mate Bemused ;)

  • 115
    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    Credlin would be an obvious lightning rod for discontent.

    The problem for the LNP is that Abbott without Credlin would be an even bigger fruit loop than Abbott with Credlin.

  • 116
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    94
    zoidlord

    Kevin Andrews is the current Social Services Minister, cutting large amounts of money out of Welfare Services ($3 billion to be exact), just a start.

    Kevin Andrews in charge of Social Services;
    Mal Brough in charge of the NDIS;
    Peter Dutton in charge of Health;
    Abbott lording it over the Whole Show…

    What could possibly go right?

  • 117
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Pyne’s performance has done more damage than Bishop in the public’s mind.

    The voters look at their own needs and education of the kiddies means a bit more than Indonesia’s feelings.

  • 118
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    108

    It is near certain that the High Court will accept the AEC`s petition to send WA back to the polls for all 6 half-Senate positions.

    The missing votes have not been found and are unlikely to be and even if they were, there would be the issue of potential tampering with them.

  • 119
    Wakefield
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    zoid – I’m backing Bronwyn Bishop – get some backbone into the leadership!

  • 120
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    I believe there will be another vote.

    The HC will quite rightly try to find a way to avoid that. The simplest way would be to declare the first count valid and seat Pratt and Wong. Or they might seat Pratt and Ludlam as the candidates of the two tickets that got the most votes. There’s really no basis on which they could seat Ludlam and Dropulich.

  • 121
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    But after all the rhetoric they expended on Rudd v Gillard, they will have to be pretty desperate to do it.

    They’ve already set a precedent for post-election about-faces on schools funding and debt.

    Never underestimate the Liberals’ capacity for blatant chutzpah!

  • 122
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Given the events of the past three years I can’t see the Libs acting against Abbott. The only very remote possibility would be for TAPM to step aside for the good of the party however if the good oil is accurate the Libs are unlikely to elect the only person capable of leading a half decent Coalition government.

    Sigh another wasted three years I fear.

  • 123
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    mexicanbeemer@60

    Actually Mod Lib and Cranky have been pretty quiet of late.

    Mod is floating around in the orient, apparently.

  • 124
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Yes I agree Pyne deserves some credit. He really is an obnoxious man.

  • 125
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    Seriously, Australia? If you’re going to vote these clowns in at least possess the fortitude to stick by your dumb ass choice until the next campaign!

    Enjoy the next three years, idiots.

  • 126
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Oh well … the land of nod beckons ….

  • 127
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    120

    Doing anything other than sending WA back to the polls would not be democratic. The missing votes and the closeness of the margin mean that it cannot just be a scrutineering issue. It would be unprecedented to send all Senate positions back to the polls but sending only the disputed positions back to the polls (as happened in 1906) would be unfair because of the introduction of proportional representation in 1949 (and the High Court would also likely consider that it would be contrary to the spirit of the removal of Senate by-elections to fill casual vacancies in 1977) and would not save any money.

  • 128
    Rossmore
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    Pyne is now one of the best ALP electoral assets. Long may he continue his presence on QT and Lateline. The ALP should give him as much air space as possible. He is pure electoral poison for the LNP

  • 129
    lefty e
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    With ‘open and accountable’ government like this, its no wonder the Libs are tanking.

    Check out this complete bloody disgrace: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-blocks-senate-from-secret-details-of-transpacific-partnership-trade-deal-20131208-2yzh2.html

  • 130
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    This result even though the boats have “stopped” :P .

  • 131
    Darn
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    I can’t wait to see Bludgertrack later this week, especially if Essential does the right thing tomorrow.

  • 132
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    confessions@21


    Abbott: Satisfied 40, Dissatisfied 45
    Shorten: Satisfied 44, Dissatisfied 27


    When was the last time we saw a first term LOTO record higher satisfaction ratings than a first term PM so soon into the new govt?

    The qualifier “first term” makes it tougher! Answer is Hewson 1990. June Newspoll Hewson 47-21 Hawke 38-53.

  • 133
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    Whoops, I missed that the first-term qualifier also applied to the PM, so I’m guessing it has never happened, but I’ll check.

  • 134
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    The qualifier “first term” makes it tougher! Answer is Hewson 1990. June Newspoll Hewson 47-21 Hawke 38-53.

    Hawke wasn’t a first-term PM in 1990.

  • 135
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    Whoops, I missed that the first-term qualifier also applied to the PM, so I’m guessing it has never happened

    Zacly.

  • 136
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Abbott needs to bribe voters.

  • 137
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Doing anything other than sending WA back to the polls would not be democratic. The missing votes and the closeness of the margin mean that it cannot just be a scrutineering issue. It would be unprecedented to send all Senate positions back to the polls but sending only the disputed positions back to the polls (as happened in 1906) would be unfair because of the introduction of proportional representation in 1949 (and the High Court would also likely consider that it would be contrary to the spirit of the removal of Senate by-elections to fill casual vacancies in 1977) and would not save any money.

    I don’t think there’s the slightest chance of “sending only the disputed positions back to the polls.” The choices before the HC are:
    * Seat Pratt and Wang
    * Seat Pratt and Ludlam
    * Order a fresh 6-seat election

  • 138
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Yep it’s never happened. But the only possible candidates are: Whitlam vs Snedden, Fraser vs Whitlam (if that counts, not Whitlam’s first term as LO), Hawke vs Peacock, Howard vs Beazley, Rudd vs Nelson. So not surprising it has not happened before.

  • 139
    Nemspy
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    I think what we’re seeing here is the fact that Gillard is gone, Rudd’s gone – the next most offensive person to set sights on is Abbott.

    The Coalition (like the ALP, but for different reasons) needs to modernise. I’m feeling zero desire to get involved or vote for them. The umming and ahing about school funding is a bad look and old-fashioned things like high court challenges against gay marriage win exactly zero votes.

    Someone wake me up when there’s a party for me to get enthusiastic about.

  • 140
    sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    What a great poll result. My worry is that abbott is going to go postal – and take out as many of his ‘enemies’ as he can before he gets taken down. At least he can’t do much (other than shoot himself off at the knees – his ‘feet’ are already bloody mid-ankle stumps) before July 1.

    & yes – I got it completely wrong on how his’There will be no lies under a government I lead’ after the Gonski about face would be spun – it was largely ignored by the media, and he didn’t use it in the carbon price debate. I saw (and posted during) one night of ABC late news and lateline where I thought he/they were going to spin it – but he’s not smart enough (and many in the media are not colluding because he is not sucking up to them). he’s farked.

    the ‘approve : disapprove’ figures are very heartening – I can’t see how he’ll turn that around.

    that grinding sound is turnbull honing his stiletto….(& morriscum his axe, and hockey his machette). let the games begin!

  • 141
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    lefty

    [With ‘open and accountable’ government like this, its no wonder the Libs are tanking.

    Check out this complete bloody disgrace: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-blocks-senate-from-secret-details-of-transpacific-partnership-trade-deal-20131208-2yzh2.html

    This will potentially have the greatest impact on our “sovereignty” of anything else in the this term of government. It is furthering the control of corporations over democracy.

    I hope the ALP develops a backbone on this and all socially concerned are prepared for a big and effective fight.

  • 142
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    Nemspy

    There is something fundamentally sad about your comment, for a newly elected government would you expect it would be ticking off a list of positives its supporters wanted yet many seem non-excited by this lot.

  • 143
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    Kevin B:

    So this decline in voter approval of Abbott as a first term PM is unprecedented?

    I can live with that. :)

  • 144
    Nemspy
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    Sustainable,

    I don’t see anything happening to Abbott anytime soon; however, if the polls are still looking bad in about two years time then I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Turnbull made a move.

    As much as I dislike Abbott being in charge of the party with which I generally identify the most strongly, perhaps he can actually be an unwitting agent of change and reform — insofar as they are shown that, while Australia tends to run conservative, we’re not “USA conservative”, either.

    As happy as I was to see Gillard/Rudd go, I’ll be quite happy to see Abbott fall on his face, also. I don’t want the direction he is taking the party to be any further validated.

  • 145
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    * Order a fresh 6-seat election

    This has to be the most feasible option, surely? Fair all round.

  • 146
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    By my records this is only the 9th time in Newspoll history an Opposition’s 2PP has increased three or more Newspolls in a row. Previous cases in 1992, 1997 (twice), 1998 (twice), 2000, 2001, 2010.

  • 147
    Schnappi
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    Abbotts glory days < Has he had any

    Believe many in this country have fond memories of our military.

    Abbotts and Morrisons misuse of our military would have a large affect on how LNP are thought of overall.

  • 148
    Nemspy
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    Nemspy

    There is something fundamentally sad about your comment, for a newly elected government would you expect it would be ticking off a list of positives its supporters wanted yet many seem non-excited by this lot.

    I’m not sure you can count me as a supporter – I didn’t vote for them. I was more of a “comeuppance for Labor” man than anyone who was enthusiastic about Abbott.

  • 149
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    Nemspy

    Who would you like to see take over?

  • 150
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    Queensland Gov making a killing of Electricity:

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/powerful-surge-in-profits-as-energex-delivers-huge-dividend-for-state-government/story-fnihsrf2-1226779206630

    This is after Redlands council making a killing off water:
    http://www.baysidebulletin.com.au/story/1930416/redland-citys-annual-report-card-released/?cs=213

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