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Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first Newspoll since the government’s self-inflicted Gonski wound finds the pollster joining Nielsen in the 52-48 club.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.

Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.

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  • 401
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    Election Now!

    Hey Sean – read the latest poll and weep, buddy.

    The electorate has woken up to these shysters, unfortunately far too late.

  • 402
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    Thanks guys.

    The dark secret that the retail giants like Walmart don't want you to know is that many of these workers subsist below the poverty line, and rely on programs like food stamps and Medicaid just to get by.

    But hang on? Isn’t the US that terribly anti-socialist place where companies stand or fall on their own in the market? If WallMart are paying below poverty line, then they are effectively relying on a massive continuing support from the taxpayers which is going straight into their profit / bottom line. :(

    And on a positive note. The Poms will have to face Mitchel Johnson in form, in the heat, on a WACA wicket. Wonder if he will open the bowling?? Glad i have the FM radio on my phone working. :)

  • 403
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    BW

    DEAD MANDATE WALKING

    Love it!

  • 404
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Watch: Shadow Education spokeswoman @KateEllisMP is speaking on a pay rise for #childcare workers http://t.co/uCb4PpCldC #auspol”

  • 405
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    Poroti 394

    Thank you I just find it disgusting, talk about Serfs Never been good conditions in US for ordinary workers. I worked for 2 US companies(under Australian conditions) and my US counterparts could hardly believe my entitlements. They were pretty high up in the hierarchy too. Always made sure my staff worked under Australian conditions too

  • 406
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    Hi all,

    Kate Ellis hasn’t enough negative adjectives to describe this guvmint. :-D

  • 407
    don
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    mari@386

    Dave 368
    Re Walmart

    One of my followers on twitter tells me that the lower rungs of Walmart have to get food stamps to survive. Do you know if this is true?

    Mari I’ve heard that too. People on minimum wage apparently can’t survive without food stamps.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/24/1250194/-McDonald-s-offers-worker-a-budget-solution-Apply-for-food-stamps#

    McDonald's answer to living on $8.25 an hour: food stamps. Also heating assistance. And maybe Medicaid.
    This is totally realistic and in fact what makes survival on $8.25 an hour possible for most people. But could it possibly highlight more perfectly the reliance of the fast food industry on government assistance to subsidize poverty wages? It's basically a straight-up admission from McDonald's that the highly profitable company knows it isn't paying workers enough to live on and is looking to taxpayers to make that possible while keeping profits high and prices low.

  • 408
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    Ellis: Government outsoucing the breaking of promises

  • 409
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    @strom_m: Yeah. Greedy childcare workers. “Childcare workers asked to hand back wage rise” http://t.co/xNEsEOvvWf via @smh

  • 410
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    @guytaur/408

    It’s the same excuse Newman tried say outsourcing isn’t selling of assets.

  • 411
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    The Abbott Government is a complete train wreck.

    It is dogged by internal division. The CoS is almost universally detested by those within the party. It is captive to right wing philosphy. It is headed by an incompetent and lazy PM whose singular lack of appeal is only matched by his oafish behaviour.

  • 412
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    I can’t believe it. Actually I can. The Federal Givernment has repeated their Gonski trick wfith child care workers. What a bunch of contemptible liars and shonks this government is. I hope the providers tell the government where they can shove their request to ‘do the right thing’

  • 413
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Sussan Ley will get a whole lot of questions in QT today, not sure if that’s a good or bad thing.

  • 414
    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    Abbott’s wife runs Child Care Centre – how much does she make a year I wonder.

    I believe many LNP ministers and their families have interests in child care – all above board, apparently.

    However, it goes a long way to explaining “Scrooge” McAbbott’s motivations.

  • 415
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    “@BushfireBill: Talk around #Auspol is that Abbott wants an Xmas sitting of the HOR to setup a DD. Pretty please Tony? You’re so strong and virile. DO IT!!!”

  • 416
    Scarpat
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    Essential has been slow moving, but your prob correct.

    Correct me if I’m wrong but Essential still operates on a two weeks rolling average. If so, any movement in opinion is reflected later in its polls than in the others and it is not a reflection of it being a Newspoll lite.

  • 417
    leone
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    Margie Abbott, manager of St Ives Occasional Care centre, did not have a word to say about the childcare wages issue. Not before the election, when Abbott made it clear his government would not support the increase, not now when it’s seriously at risk.

    Did Margie’s employers have a chat with her? Did they ask her to ask Tony to deny the increase? We know Abbott takes notice of the policy suggestions made by his wife and daughters. They suggested his PPL scheme, they suggested taxpayer-funded nannies for childcare. So why not assume that Margie’s employers want to keep paying their staff peanuts and asked for her help.

  • 418
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    FB -

    It’s settled law that governments can’t bind future governments to act or from acting (other than by referendum in our case and these are reversible) but a deal in which a government could not touch business without a prospective law suit arbitrated outside of our own jurisdiction is plainly the next best thing. This might radically infringe the right of the state to regulate emissions, prevent fracking, or regulate tobacco and gambling promotion — just to name a few. It could prevent the licencing of generic drugs.

    I was pondering this a while back.

    The question I have is what are the real-world implications of a future Australian government saying “this agreement sucks, foreign companies have sued us, this dodgy international arbitration system has ruled against us, and we want no further part of this”?

    I’m not really sure what actual implications this would have. Obviously the benefits of the relevant free trade deal would cease, and there would be short-term diplomatic issues with countries involved.

    My question is ‘has this happened in the past, and what happened to the country in question?’, and would bodies like the WTO ‘punish’ us for breaking a trade deal in any meaningful long-lasting way?

    Fundamentally, if we revoke the legislation that allows foreign companies to get payouts ruled by an international arbitration system, surely there is nothing in law that anyone can do about that? Diplomatic waves will be calmed over time. The High Court could rule on whether the government has to pay out compensation for some hypothetical property right, but I doubt they would do this – a concrete example of confiscation, sure, but not a theoretical future right to doing business…

  • 419
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

    DEAD MANDATE WALKING.

    Only just.

  • 420
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    Wow this Nationals guy is out of touch. National Press Club address

  • 421
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    S777

    I think Psclaw @345 is close to the truth. There is a significant racist minority in Australia – maybe about 20% or so, more common among the older members traditional ‘working class’. The high water mark of the One Nation vote might be a good indicator.

    It’s not that they’re bad people (although some may be), it’s more that they have a blind spot on race and multiculturalism.

    Racists are bad people, full stop.

    Racists, actively or passively, damage or destroy humans and/or humanity in many ways, great and small. They do it by their actions, the language they use, the attitudes they espouse and spread, their human relationships, and the political parties, programs and policies they support.

    The only real ‘live’ question about racists is just how bad they are.

  • 422
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    DD NOW!

  • 423
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

    Scarpat -

    Correct me if I’m wrong but Essential still operates on a two weeks rolling average. If so, any movement in opinion is reflected later in its polls than in the others and it is not a reflection of it being a Newspoll lite.

    I believe you are correct that Essential is operating on a 2 week rolling average.

    However, the strange drawn out pauses and glacial drifts that Essential exhibits are on much longer timeframes than the effective 1 week delay imposed by the rolling average would indicate.

  • 424
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    It seems the Greens are right. Get the DD triggers in place so we can have that DD.

  • 425
    leone
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

    Abbott can make the reps sit over Christmas, he has the numbers to do that. But he can’t do a thing about the senate. The senate set their own sitting timetable and can tell Abbott to shove his Christmas sitting. There’s no point having the reps sit if the senate isn’t there to pass anything anyway, and Abbott knows that.

    Government ministers are starting to huff and puff about Bill Shorten ordering the senate to ‘go on strike’ after the end of the week. Grunt was on about it yesterday. Bill Shorten can’t order the senate to do anything. It’s all hot air and puffery.

  • 426
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

    Jackol@423

    Scarpat -


    Correct me if I’m wrong but Essential still operates on a two weeks rolling average. If so, any movement in opinion is reflected later in its polls than in the others and it is not a reflection of it being a Newspoll lite.


    I believe you are correct that Essential is operating on a 2 week rolling average.

    However, the strange drawn out pauses and glacial drifts that Essential exhibits are on much longer timeframes than the effective 1 week delay imposed by the rolling average would indicate.

    I don’t understand your last paragraph.

    The purpose of a rolling average is to smooth out wild fluctuations.

    The ‘glacial drifts’ you refer to could not be caused by a two week rolling average which would simply dampen any trend for a two week period.

  • 427
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    Re: the US and the attitude of its citizens to gross income disparity

    It was explained to me a while ago that the US has created and sustained its own mythology around “the American dream”, and the notion that anyone in America can succeed if they try hard and earn it.

    It just takes that “go get’em” attitude, you see.

    The corollary of this is that if you aren’t succeeding then it’s your fault, and only your fault. You just have to work harder, try harder, think harder, be smarter, be more competitive, whatever it is you just have to do more, and if you’re poor and struggling that’s because you’re lazy and haven’t tried hard enough.

    In that framework the response to increasing disparity, increasing poverty, the rise of the 3-job working poor, the reliance on foodstamps to survive, is not anger but guilt.

  • 428
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    ABBOTOCALYPSE NOW!

  • 429
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

    THE BALLAD OF PETA RABBIT.

  • 430
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    leonie

    Child care was all my daughter wanted to do. She is devoted to the kids in her class is talented at art – came from her father not her mother – and is truly innovative.

    She loves her job and her little charges has two daughters of her own and raising them by herself with absolutely no input from her former husband who does not pay any child maintenance.

    She bought him out of the house with a little help from us so she also has a mortgage.

    In school holidays she brings the preschool guinea pigs home to care for them when no one is at the preschool and yet their pay is lousy.

    Susan Ley and the Government need to get over themselves.

    Wonder how much time Abbott’s wife actually spends at the Childcare centre she owns. Or is it just another income stream for the Abbott family?

  • 431
    leone
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    Barnaby Joyce caught out for the third time using taxpayer funds to attend a wedding
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/barnaby-joyce-caught-out-for-the-third-time-using-taxpayer-funds-to-attend-a-wedding/story-fni0cx12-1226779254200

  • 432
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    Bemused -

    I don’t understand your last paragraph.

    The purpose of a rolling average is to smooth out wild fluctuations.

    The ‘glacial drifts’ you refer to could not be caused by a two week rolling average which would simply dampen any trend for a two week period.

    You understood me perfectly – you summed up my point.

    (And, technically, a 2 sample average imposes a 1 sample delay, vis a vis finite impulse response filters).

  • 433
    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    The corollary of this is that if you aren’t succeeding then it’s your fault, and only your fault. You just have to work harder, try harder, think harder, be smarter, be more competitive, whatever it is you just have to do more, and if you’re poor and struggling that’s because you’re lazy and haven’t tried hard enough.

    In that framework the response to increasing disparity, increasing poverty, the rise of the 3-job working poor, the reliance on foodstamps to survive, is not anger but guilt.

    Guilt, yes … but also violence – usually against others as poorly off as you are. I often wonder why your average poor American never seems to catch on to this particular trick … but they never seem to.

  • 434
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    don 407

    See Poroti’s comment re Walmart just disgusting

  • 435
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    STOP THE BOATS!

  • 436
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    Barnaby Joyce caught out for the third time using taxpayer funds to attend a wedding

    This grub needs to be referred to the Federal Police.

  • 437
    leone
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    MTBW
    Margie Abbott dosn’t own that childcare centre, she’s the manager. It’s a community-run place, she is employed by the management committee or board or whatever they like to call themselves.

    I hope they pay her an hourly rate fot the time she’s at work only, seeing as she’s hardly ever there these days. Her duties as wife of the PM take her away an awful lot, I’d hate to think they pay her a full-time salary and then have to pay someone else to fill in as well. But that’s the Abbott family for you, grab what you can and to hell with everyone else.

  • 438
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    This will be a results driven government, not run by polls or the daily news cycle.

    A 80% reduction in illegal arrivals for example is a result the leftwing hate media can’t deny or hide.

  • 439
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    The whole fight in the US over Obamacare is about that philosophy. As people start to realise government does have a place in providing services because the market is not god that will change.

    The rich in the US are fighting a rear guard action against the concept the rest of the world accepts.

  • 440
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    This will be a results driven government, not run by polls or the daily news cycle.

    Bwahahahahaha.

    F#ck you and the horse you rode in on!

  • 441
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    ST

    See ABC Factcheck. Thats a Rudd accomplishnent

  • 442
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/438

    You have mislead Australians again.

  • 443
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    leone

    I thought she owned it sorry!

    I wonder what level of pay she receives to manage the joint “when she can”.

  • 444
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    Dear England,

    Welcome to your nightmare,

    Kind Regards,

    Australia

    Yep. Scorching heat, fast and bouncy wicket. We’re going to eat them alive!

  • 445
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    12 degrees and raining in Melbourne. Could we have some global warming please?

  • 446
    leone
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    STOP THE WEDDINGS!

  • 447
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    This will be a results driven government, not run by polls or the daily news cycle.

    :lol:

  • 448
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    Jackol@432

    Bemused -


    I don’t understand your last paragraph.

    The purpose of a rolling average is to smooth out wild fluctuations.

    The ‘glacial drifts’ you refer to could not be caused by a two week rolling average which would simply dampen any trend for a two week period.


    You understood me perfectly – you summed up my point.

    (And, technically, a 2 sample average imposes a 1 sample delay, vis a vis finite impulse response filters).

    That is hardly ‘glacial’.

    I was looking for some other factor I was unaware of.

  • 449
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG7krO7GGfs

  • 450
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    How can this goverment be a result driven goverment, if there are no results?

    Idiot Sean?

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