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BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

2310
  • 1051
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    The Labor member for Wakefield said that the $275 Million Labor gave to Holden meant they are staying until… wait for it… 2022!!!

    Why did he lie and what happened to the money Labor?

  • 1052
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    @Sean/1050

    You have no credibility to say that some one has lied.

  • 1053
    victoria
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    I wonder if thr coalition are interested in a Royal Commission into the wall collapse in Melbourne earlier this year. A brother and sister together with another young woman were killed. Grollo constructions are already avoiding responsibiliity.

    A grieving father hopes the royal commission into Labor’s bungled home insulation program will spare other families the pain he has endured.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/batts-inquiry-start-date-announced-20131212-2zai0.html#ixzz2nJNA8nbf

  • 1054
    Steve777
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    Sean @987 While now retired former foreign minister Bob Carr led the way with a $368,000 bill visiting 26 countries, the records also reveal some MPs racked up big costs on individual trips.

    At least there were 26 countries that welcomed Bob Carr. I doubt that there would be many now who would welcome Julie Bishop.

    How much did Alexander Downer spend on travel in any given 6 month period? I don’t know and I don’t care but you seem to be concerned about the issue. I think you can be pretty sure that, adjusted for inflation, it would be similar.

    Why don’t you find out and let us know? Here’s a handy calculator to help when you’ve got the raw numbers: http://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualDecimal.html

    Maybe Alexander mostly stayed at home, eschewing international conferences and conducted his discussions with partners, allies and competitors by phone and text message; maybe when he did go abroad he traveled economy class on Jetstar; maybe he used local buses in foreign capitals, stayed at the local Youth Hostel and ate at MacDonalds? If his travel bill is significantly less you get crowing rights.

    As to the story that should have been on the front page of the Daily Telecrap, have a lot at my #863. Other possibilities include:

    Hockey Chases Holden out of Australia
    Abbott Robs Aged Care Workers
    Abbott Robs Child Care Care Workers
    Abbott and Morrison Fail Comprehensively on Boats
    Abbott robs poor to pay rich

    Of course I bet when you read or watched Robin Hood as a kid you barracked for the Sheriff of Nottingham.

  • 1055
    CTar1
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    Lynchpin

    Shown’s stuff is just graffiti.

  • 1056
    victoria
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    I notice that three deaths occurred in Qld. The other in NSW due to dehydration.
    I am curious to know what the OHS laws are in Qld.

  • 1057
    poroti
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill

    The “service industries” thing really gave me the irrits. I remember back in the 80′s the singing of praises the service industry got in the US as being the way of the future in a “post industrial” world. Even a dumb lab rat like me could see an economy based on flipping burgers for each other ain’t going to fly. The nations that were doing well were making things that people wanted to buy.

    High wages, unions and too many holidays for Aussie workers are hardy perennials when it comes to why our manufacturers can’t compete. Strange that Germany has long been successful with all of those. So if not the workers then come on down The Management needing a good hard look at themselves. Oh and successive gubbermints.

  • 1058
    adrian
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    Ignore the moron…

  • 1059
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    It’s just not logical to blame Rudd or anyone in the government for deaths which happened during the insulation debacle. That is as illogical as blaming the government for UA deaths at sea. I think the government at the time can be held accountable for a poorly thought out and implemented policy which left the industry in tatters however we don’t need a RC to show us that.

    But blaming deaths on Rudd or Garrett is just plainly wrong.

    The RC will end up being a waste of more taxpayers money.

    I am really struggling to see where the Abbott government has any clear vision or strategy. Perhaps it is there and will become clear after Christmas but I don’t have a lot of confidence. This would have to be the worst “first 100 days” by any new government in my memory. I hope for all our sakes they get their proverbial acts together during the break.

  • 1060
    victoria
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    Steve777

    The daily shit sheet together with the Herald Scum omit any detrimental reportage against the coalition. It is a deliberate strategy to omit reporting of anything negative. In fact the Herald sun has spent this week reporting on the spat between James Hird of Essendon FC and the AFL. It is beyond pathetic

  • 1061
    slothy
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    Silly me I thought is was those who made contracts with the Government who were criminally negligent.

    Surely, the contract was between the home owners and the installers. Unlike for the Sydney Airport sound insulation program for which the Howard government issued tenders (5 houses caught fire, BTW), the Rudd government didn’t pick them, but left it up to the owners. Installers are subject to state, not federal regulation

    kakuru @ 1043

    You Tories are on shaky ground. Was Howard ever charged as a war criminal over that Iraq/WMD fiasco?

    But unlike anything to do with the ‘pink batts’, war crimes such as Waging Aggressive War, and Conspiracy to Wage Aggressive War (the two principle crimes prosecuted at Nuremberg) have no statute of limitations. It wouldn’t be only Howard, but also at least the Defence and Foreign Ministers of the time, possibly the Attorney-General too.

    Plus, let us not forget the alleged role of Howard government ministers in the AWB bribery case.

  • 1062
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    Victoria #1060 don’t worry too much the SMH is more than compensating for the DT silence.

  • 1063
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    In Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy wasn’t it the service industry they tricked into thinking the world was ending & fired them off into space.

  • 1064
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    @davidwh/1059

    They thought they have something to blame Labor on, but clearly their strategy (or lack of) isn’t working, and the voters are doing what they did with the Labor party, but instead of at the end, they are doubting the goverment at the start.

  • 1065
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: OL Bill Shorten – Malcolm Turnbull ‘fresh from a day sailing on his yacht’…if Abbott won’t come down, Turnbull should meet the workers.”

  • 1066
    victoria
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    Fairfax are indeed picking up the slack, but unfortunately it is miles behind the News ltd stables in readership. Not sure how many people read the Age anymore. :(

  • 1067
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: OL Bill Shorten says if car subsidies are good enough for the US and Germany it should be good enough for Australia. #Holden”

  • 1068
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: Now Kim Carr, Labor’s manufacturing spokesman says the Libs only promote ‘north shore merchant bankers’ view of the world. #Holden”

  • 1069
    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    david, after Christmas we’re going to see them try use the Carbon Tax debate to bash Labor. Don’t expect anything constructive.

  • 1070
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    That was a god presser from Shorten

  • 1071
    CTar1
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    vic

    Not sure how many people read the Age anymore.

    A couple of decades ago it was a fearless ground breaker but now …

  • 1072
    Bugler
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    The UN has called on the Indian government to seek a rapid review of the country's supreme court's decision on Wednesday to criminalise gay sex.

    The decision by the court to reinstate a ban on same-sex relationships overturned four years ago by a lower court represents a "significant step backwards for India" and violates international law, Navi Pillay, the UN high commissioner on human rights, said.

    ...

    Sonia Gandhi, the president of the ruling Congress party on Thursday called on the national assembly "to address this issue and uphold the constitutional guarantee of life and liberty to all citizens of India, including those affected by this judgment".

    Gandhi described Section 377 as "an archaic, repressive and unjust law that infringed on basic human rights" and said that {the Indian} constitution "has given us a great legacy … of liberalism of openness, that enjoin us to combat prejudice and discrimination of any kind".

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/12/un-asks-india-review-gay-sex-ban

  • 1073
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Sorry good. Do not think Shorten has reached god status yet.

  • 1074
    Steve777
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    Following from Slothy @1061 re Iraq War 2: I remember reading back in the mid to late 1990′s, several years before 9/11, how many prominent Right Wingers / Neocons in the US were urging a US invasion of Iraq. It was hardly a secret. The Neocons believed that the USA should take advantage of it’s time as the sole superpower with the Soviet Union gone to reshape the political geography of the Middle East to something more amenable to its interests. They imagined that the Iraqis would cheer the US tanks as they trundled down the streets of Baghdad and shower them with flowers. They imagined that once Iraq fell, so would the Middle East dominoes, who would embrace the USA, free markets and democracy, rather as happened in Eastern Europe after 1989.

    These Neocons had the President’s ear when George W Bush came to power. Then came 9/11. The rest, as they say, is history. Australia spent lives and treasure in pursuit of this harebrained, not to say criminal, US enterprise. Meanwhile, the USA took its eye off the ball in its pursuit of terrorists, with the result that the Taliban are back and may yet again take over Afghanistan and are in a position to destabilise nuclear-armed Pakistan.

  • 1075
    Brenda Loots
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

    poroti @1057

    Strange that Germany has long been successful with all of those. So if not the workers then come on down The Management needing a good hard look at themselves.

    You might be onto something there ;-) . Conservatives like to rail about labour productivity (which has been growing steadily for decades in Australia. They’re not so vocal about capital productivity.

    Grogonomics over at the Guardian had a good piece on this recently: .

    Who’s making capital investment decisions? The management class in business big and small in Australia certainly has a case to answer. Blaming workers is so much more convenient, though.

  • 1076
    Brenda Loots
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    Can’t seem to get the link to work http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/04/poor-productivity-stop-blaming-the-labour-market

  • 1077
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    “@joeobrien24: Immig Min @ScottMorrisonMP weekly asylum seeker update due in about 5mins @ABCNews24”

  • 1078
    leone
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is discussing his PPL with the premiers today. He says they will save save hundreds of millions of dollars when their employees use the federal PPL scheme instead of the existing state systems, but he wants them to hand those ‘savings’ over to him. So actually they won’t be saving a cent.

    Abbott is also going to try another pea-and-thimble trick he hopes will fool the premiers. He wants the states to build new infrastructure, especially all those city freeways he promised during the election campaign. To qualify for federal assistance and to pay their share of the cost of all the new stuff the premiers will have to flog off infrastructure the states already own. Trivial stuff they will never miss, just the odd port and power plant, nothing much, really. No mention of what will replace the income these trivialities contribute to state coffers, of course. Then, I suppose, the states can flog off the new stuff to fund newer stuff. Need that new hospital? Well just sell that freeway you built last year…….Honestly, who comes up with these brain farts? Abbott’s dog?

    Paywalled, but you know how to deal with that.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/parental-leave-scheme-prominent-on-coag-agenda/story-fn59niix-1226782006669#

  • 1079
    poroti
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    victoria

    The actual OHS regs are virtually identical to every other state .All the deaths were covered by the basic requirements of regulations. From what I read of the coroners reports in the papers 2 cases were clear breaches by the employer and one a breach by the employee .

    However there was (is ?) a bit of a cultural issue to overcome when it comes to safety in the Qld building industry. When the deaths became big news a JTI contributor commented on his shock at the lack of attention to safety in the Qld building industry. He had gone up there, not too many years ago, for a contract.

  • 1080
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    “@kimogrady1: Malcolm not commenting further on joint boat ownership with NBN consultant because ‘on-water operations’”

  • 1081
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    BTW

    Those Naplan results are moving in the right direction. Proves Julia Gillard was doing the right thing.

  • 1082
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

    @mashable: Now You Can’t Really Block Anyone on Twitter http://t.co/iGH6aemlvn

  • 1083
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

    Poroti

    Ah Queensland, beautiful one day, dodgy the next. Who would ever have thought there would be sus builders in the sunshine state?

  • 1084
    CTar1
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    s777

    how many prominent Right Wingers / Neocons in the US were urging a US invasion of Iraq.

    The idea was about surrounding Iran.

  • 1085
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

    @BernardKeane: .@sortius nails Turnbull’s ridiculous NBN “review”: Game Over Man, Game Over http://t.co/cAQeVn1Pph #auspol #HFC

  • 1086
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Live: @ScottMorrisonMP & Lt Gen. Angus Campbell giving weekly briefing on asylum seeker boat arrivals. Watch here: http://t.co/FlRWJAIwAW

  • 1087
    CTar1
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Strange that Germany has long been successful with all of those.

    The idea that German tax payers each contributed $90 to the Silver thing cheers me up.

  • 1088
    victoria
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    Poroti

    I recall being told in times gone by that Qld were “cowboys” when it came to following OHS in the building industry

  • 1089
    1934pc
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    They thought they have something to blame Labor on, but clearly their strategy (or lack of) isn’t working, and the voters are doing what they did with the Labor party, but instead of at the end, they are doubting the government at the start.

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/how-rudds-pink-batts-saved-australia,5625

  • 1090
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

    poroti and victoria

    Queensland has to be different. Number of deaths and injury by State tell us that

  • 1091
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    SSS7 @ 1074

    Not forgetting Sheridan:

    http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/eserv/UQ:10415/mh_rs_over_04.pdf

    Bludger ‘duck’ etymologists: note the use of term ‘duckspeak’ in the above link.

  • 1092
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    “@joeobrien24: PM @TonyAbbottMHR media conf .. post COAG .. in 20mins. @ABCNews24”

  • 1093
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    @alexneedham74: Salvation Army humanitarian work on Manus and Nauru to end http://t.co/yQzSIfh1JE via @guardian

  • 1094
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    “@Dream_Brother_: Breaking: Motoring Enthusiast Party senator-elect strangely quiet/ignored regarding Holden closure announcement #AusPol”

  • 1095
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    Morrison denies camp conditions amount to torture

  • 1096
    dave
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    The $2 Million Dollar Labor World Farewell tour…

    Very modest in comparision – howard spend a lot lot more than that just on his own -

    JOHN HOWARD'S 78 overseas trips in his 11 years as prime minister cost taxpayers more than $20 million.

    When the nation's second-longest serving leader was voted out, he had been overseas for 431 days - about 10 per cent of his time as leader - according to figures released yesterday by the Department of Finance.

    The report was tabled in response to persistent questioning by the Sydney Labor MP Daryl Melham, who has been trying to put a price tag on the complete cost of Mr Howard's time in office.

    The travel bill lodged yesterday came in at $19.2 million but Mr Melham said it could rise by $3 million because the cost of VIP aircraft was transferred from the Department of Finance to the Department of Defence in mid-2002 and had not been included in the figures.

    "It's public money, the public has a right to know. This is the first time the total cost for all his trips has been presented as a complete list," Mr Melham said.

    In his first year as prime minister in 1996, Mr Howard took only three short trips overseas, all to Asia, at a cost of $637,807.

    After a hesitant start, Mr Howard became a well-travelled leader, touching down in 48 countries.

    He made 13 visits to the US, 12 to Indonesia, called in on Britain on 11 occasions and went to Japan and China seven times - the same important countries Kevin Rudd visited in his first year as Prime Minister.

    In 2002 alone, Mr Howard's 10 overseas trips to the US, Europe, Asia and Africa cost $4.5 million.

    "It shows Mr Howard was a frequent and costly overseas visitor," Mr Melham said.

    The bills include Mr Howard's travel and costs incurred by his wife, Janette, his staff and a doctor.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/howards-11-years-of-globetrotting-cost-20m-20090226-8j9m.html#ixzz2AOEoAc6r

    and this doozy -

    There was the trek through Europe

    - Germany,

    - Greece,

    - Italy,

    - Belgium and

    - France - in the first fortnight of July.

    That was the trip that got all the publicity a few months back after we learnt, at Senate estimates, that our own Kirribilli royal couple had paid $171,000 - including a ***$10,000*** late checkout fee - to spend four nights in the so-called ***royal suite*** of a swank Rome hotel.

    Those two weeks in Europe ended up costing Australian taxpayers a tick over a million dollars - $1,025,638. We got the final cost a few weeks ago on Parliament's last day before the winter recess.

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/07/18/1058035200830.html

    Taxpayers money indeed!

  • 1097
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 1:03 pm | Permalink

    Morrison not happy about being asked about safety for homosexuals. Resorts to hectoring journalist

  • 1098
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    @japantimes: Australia’s Abbott admits hitting kids http://t.co/KKvKFiXX7m

  • 1099
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    Abbott post Coag Presser now

  • 1100
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

    @delimiterau: [D2] Politically and functionally, Turnbull’s first 100 days have been a disaster http://t.co/f5jylSBU9v

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