tip off

BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

2310
  • 101
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Today is the 30th anniversary of the floating of the Aistralian $.

  • 102
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    Here is Keating Live on 24

  • 103
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    Professor of Economic Quiggin comments on the Holden issue.

    Another day, another stuffup from what already looks like the most incompetent government in Australian history.
    The Abbott government’s treatment of the car industry has been a disaster in policy terms, and just as bad as far as process is concerned.
    The key policy failure was the decision to retain fringe benefits tax breaks for cars (90 per cent of which are imported) at a cost of $1.8 billion over the forward estimates, while withdrawing Labor’s promise to give a much smaller amount in additional assistance to the remaining domestic manufacturers GMH and Toyota.
    Assuming Toyota also pulls out, every bit of the FBT concession will be public money sent overseas, with the exception of the slice creamed off by the salary packaging industry. .......

    http://johnquiggin.com/

  • 104
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    @abcnews: Prime Minister Tony Abbott says a ‘gentle smack’ can be good for children: http://t.co/GJDYoeCDYP

    I was just thinking the other day that we were overdue for another round of hysteria over government banning smacking.

  • 105
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    @ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Former Prime Minister Paul Keating is addressing the Labor Caucus http://t.co/FlRWJAIwAW #auspol http://t.co/ryJFMbNFw6

  • 106
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    I was just thinking the other day that we were overdue for another round of hysteria over government banning smacking.

    Smacks of desperation from the PM. ‘LOOK OVER THERE!’

  • 107
    liyana
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Is there a precedent for a federal government taking wage rises away from workers? Such as the LNP have done with Childcare and aged care workers?

    Such mean and nasty politics…

  • 108
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Smacks of desperation from the PM. ‘LOOK OVER THERE'

    Other leaders would distract with a vision, an idea or a discussion. But not Tony, who sees voters as nothing more than 2GB callers and Bolt blog commenters.

  • 109
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    ‘LOOK OVER HERE!’

    Was that from the Prime Minister or from the Minister for Woman [sic]?

  • 110
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    @mikejanda: Fmr Treasury Secretary Ken Henry lays into politicians for going soft on resources taxation, calls for tax increases: http://t.co/xDFC2j1fiV

  • 111
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    ‘gentle smack’ is it now? from a PM that wants all the local industries to go caput?

    Get your priorities straight, this is going to be a shit xmas for many people.

  • 112
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    ‘LOOK OVER HERE!’

    Was that from the Prime Minister or from the Minister for Woman [sic]?

  • 113
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    [@abcnews: Prime Minister Tony Abbott says a ‘gentle smack’ can be good for children: http://t.co/GJDYoeCDYP

    Well, if that does not work, we could always give him a kick up the arse.

  • 114
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Can someone from the Labor brains trust please remind us who was in power when both Ford and Mitsubishi announced they were ending their car assembly operations in Australia???

    Thank you….

  • 115
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Keating: Liberals believe in business, not markets.

  • 116
    BH
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    Btw, love how you got that heart in your comment!

    Fess I’m not that clever – the heart is on my sickbed mate , Galaxy tab!

    Victoria Thanks, watching PJK plus Bill this morning is good medicine

  • 117
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    @Sean/114

    Why isn’t Coalition putting more money into our Car Industry like Germany?

    Everytime Labor puts more money it, it gets blamed.

  • 118
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    @abcnews: Prime Minister Tony Abbott says a ‘gentle smack’ can be good for children: http://t.co/GJDYoeCDYP

    I was just thinking the other day that we were overdue for another round of hysteria over government banning smacking.

    Did Abbott run this comment past Peta? Is it government policy or just part of his personal approach to life? Has he therefore preempted the government’s consideration of the statutory report by the National Children’s Commissioner?

  • 119
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    liyana

    I mentioned the other day that my daughter is in the Childcare industry and the workers are disgusted with the Coalition’s change of heart.

    They are paid appallingly already and now the Government want something else for them.

    Of course if they were in highly paid professional jobs this government would assist parents by giving them $75,000 so they wouldn’t have to care about childcare.

    Such mean and nasty politics indeed!

  • 120
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Sean’s awake earlier than normal. He must have an appointment with Centrelink this morning or something.

  • 121
    Geoff
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Can someone from the Labor brains trust please remind us who was in power when both Ford and Mitsubishi announced they were ending their car assembly operations in Australia???

    Apparently that is Abbotts fault as well. he is all seeing all knowing just blame him for everything. Labor are saints and can do no wrong.

  • 122
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Denis Napthine on Holden presser now

  • 123
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Napthine sounding like a Labor Premier

  • 124
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Pretty desperate line of spin from the Coalition hacks on here. Sulking about the past and the opposition being meanies is a sign you’ve lost the debate.

  • 125
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: .@Vic_Premier: I’ll look the PM in the eye and make a strong case for a substantial assistance package #Holden #auspol #springst”

  • 126
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Napthine sounding like a Labor Premier

    Napthine sounding like somebody who would like to be reelected.

  • 127
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Abbott hauling out the child smacking unicorn.

    The last time he got himself in hot water for stuffing up Australia he opined that every child in Australia should be forced to learn the Bible.

    Abbott: Clueless in Canberra.

  • 128
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Napthine sounding like a Labor Premier.

    Why have a faux-Labor Premier when we can have a real one as early as March?

  • 129
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: .@Vic_Premier: We are talking about a substantial amount of money from the Federal Government #Holden #auspol #springst”

  • 130
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    So we had Macfarlane saying wait until we figure out what we can do for you, which will be after Christmas some time, don’t you dare try to hurry us.

    And we had Hockey in Parliament braying about wanting a decision from GM immediately.

    How klutzment.

  • 131
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    Psephos

    March? Election is in November

  • 132
    Scarpat
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    The last time he got himself in hot water for stuffing up Australia he opined that every child in Australia should be forced to learn the Bible.

    Perhaps he meant that children should be smacked with the Bible.

  • 133
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    @SusanWyndhamSMH: “@Paul_Sheehan_: Is this Australia’s future prime minister? http://t.co/dIJpVR1I62” Brilliant, funny speaker. We need him for that alone.

    Talking up leadership change?

  • 134
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Napthine sounding somewhat forceful.

    Can we really believe he’ll put a ‘strong case’ to the PM for a package of assistance for affected employees?

  • 135
    Al Dente
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Hasn’t the PM got more important things to do than expound on the virtues or otherwise of “gentle smacking”?

    The nation is crying out for leadership on the big issues: bottle or breast??

  • 136
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    BH – I ‘ll see if Jason is available to cheer you up.

  • 137
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    March? Election is in November

    Accidents can befall minority governments at any time.

  • 138
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:02 am | Permalink

    Is that true what Napthine says about Toyota being a different model from that of Holden?

  • 139
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:02 am | Permalink

    Psephos

    Thought you may have been privy to some inside information. :D

  • 140
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    confessions

    For one thing, Toyota produces a hybrid vehicle

  • 141
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    Looks like the government has kicked off its screw the workers jihad. HoR debating a “productivity” bill for the construction industry.

  • 142
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    Of course Napthine reveals he is not Labor as he refuses to attack Abbott.

    However he does not defend Abbott

  • 143
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: .@Vic_Premier: I would go to Japan at the drop of a hat to speak with #Toyota management #Holden #springst #auspol”

  • 144
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott should just pick up the phone and …

    oh…

  • 145
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    Sean’s awake earlier than normal.

    He probably wet the bed.

  • 146
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    @Geoff/121

    You guys constantly blamed Labor for failers under their watch, now it’s Coalition Party time.

    So idiot #2.

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    “@RonaldR362: 83% of Australia’s mining industry is foreign owned. 81% of their profits go overseas. Yet Govt gives them $3 Billlion in subsidies #auspol”

  • 148
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    Abbott Anzac event on 24 now

  • 149
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    guy

    Yet Govt gives them $3 Billlion in subsidies #auspol

    Lack off nutz approach.

  • 150
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    “@RonaldR362: 83% of Australia’s mining industry is foreign owned. 81% of their profits go overseas. Yet Govt gives them $3 Billlion in subsidies #auspol”

    Yup, no prob with billions a year in subsidies if its for Gina, or if its directed to making housing less affordable.

    But to keep people employed?? Oh no,no,no,no…….

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