tip off

Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

2320
  • 51
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    I think after 6 Years of Labor Chaos the media are trying to continue the same meme.. unsuccessfully with Abbott.

    The only bit that hasn’t worked to plan so far is the Goneski stuff, the rest has been perfectly scripted.

  • 52
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    Darn
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:33 pm | PERMALINK
    Can anyone please tell me how close Morgan’s last poll before the election got to the actual result.

    I have recorded it as 54.5% to Coalition, so not far off (that was a Morgan multi)

  • 53
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxq__3z9zGM

  • 54
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    The great thing about having 90 Seats and only 100 Days into a 1000 Day term is that you get to do all the unpopular stuff straight away and after the 3 years have the results to show for it.

    Worked for Howard every time.

  • 55
    dave
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    sohar@47

    I never used to think there was a chance the Libs would split, but given the extremism of Abbott and co I don’t think any sane person could put up with it much longer.

    Who says many of them are sane?

  • 56
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    ST:

    That used to work, but the electorate appears to have a long memory and no temper for “changes of mind” these days!

  • 57
    thesilverbodgie
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    Where is ST when you need him/her/other.

  • 58
    sohar
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

    Good point, Dave. There must be a few in the Liberal Party that are sa…

  • 59
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

    Poll: How would you rate the Abbott Government’s performance in its first 100 days in office?

    Very good

    7%
    Good

    5%
    Fair

    4%
    Poor

    13%
    Very poor

    71%
    Total votes: 13826

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-says-forecast-deficit-of-more-than-40-billion-not-his-governments-fault-20131215-2zfc2.html#poll

    Ouch! Should give the Rabble something to think about over X-Mass!

  • 60
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

    Last Morgan b4 election
    September 4-6, 2013 (Multi-mode) ALP 46.5 Libs 53.5

  • 61
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

    Don’t forget, nearly 7 million of your fellow Australians thought the Coalition would make the best government.

    Reading this blog one could get the impression that only insane sociopaths would do such a thing.

    How soon we forget the chaos of the former reign! :devil:

  • 62
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib,

    The last government was all about talk and spin. The leftwing media and rabid Abbott haters seemingly number 1 complaint about Abbott is that he doesn’t do enough talking like the last Labor Government.

    By the end of this term of Government we will have worn off the talkfests and prefer to see actual… uno… real results… and if the Coalition can achieve that, they will win another term.

    Also the other card in play will be the Axed Carbon Tax post July. Will Bill Shorten and Labor declare the Carbon Tax, Dead, Buried and Cremated like Abbott did Workchoices… or is Electricity Bill going to take Carbon Tax Mark 2.0 to an election?

  • 63
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    The great thing about having 90 Seats and only 100 Days into a 1000 Day term is that you get to do all the unpopular stuff straight away and after the 3 years have the results to show for it.

    Yep thats true, I wonder when Abbott will do anything, unpopular or popular? His huge problem is he was elected to fix the debt crisis.

    Crisis? What Crisis? does not win votes.

  • 64
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    @William/30

    Perhaps should say Nielsen was either first to be early of the trend, or the others are catching up.

  • 65
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    Just like voting with your wallet, voting with your vote also applies.

  • 66
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    That’s why everyone forgot about the ‘carbon tax’ ‘lie’ — oh, wait…

  • 67
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    I noticed Mod Lib and Sean going over-drive.

  • 68
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    on Twitter – no link

    Abbott to abolish Charities & Not for Profit Commission. Meaning some Churches/charities can operate tax free & no public scrutiny.

  • 69
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

    And we already know that (i) it is very unlikely that the Coalition will be able to repeal the carbon tax in a timely fashion (and any delay beyond September 2014 is not acceptable to business) and (ii) the policy Labor will take on this issue to the next election – an ETS.

  • 70
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

    Tism

    Abbott has hit the ground reviewing, its this inaction that is killing him in the polls. Action man has turned into Report Man.

    Oh and he has pissed off every sector of society, business and foreign affairs he gazed at.

  • 71
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

    Don’t forget, nearly 7 million of your fellow Australians thought the Coalition would make the best government.

    Well, apparently a lot of them have changed their minds. Which now means that the views here are (largely) in accord with the majority of voters.

  • 72
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

    In my fantasy the moderate Libs and the Labor centre-right join forces to form a centrist party, and the left of Labor join with the moderate Greens to form the main leftist party.

    It would nicely isolate the both hard right and hard left, a re-setting of the Oz political spectrum I could live with.

    (Usual weaselly caveats apply about unforeseen consequences.)

  • 73
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    ASRC ‏@ASRC1 56m

    #BREAKING Morrison trying again to amend Migration Act to deny permanent visas to #refugees who’ve come by boat http://tinyurl.com/l4e4ng2
    Retweeted by R_Chirgwin

    Boo Abbott & Morroscum.

  • 74
    sohar
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord,
    I think ML likes polls that don’t like Tony, because that must mean they like Malcolm. Very logical, really.

  • 75
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    @ruawake/70

    Doing more damage than Labor did with FBT Changes :D

  • 76
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    What’s illogical is the idea that the Libs would replace Tony with Malcolm. They’re far more likely to replace him with Morrison.

  • 77
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    Just Me

    The Labor Unity seat of Griffith just got handed to the ALP Left in Qld, the times are a changin’. :)

  • 78
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    Although I like the idea of Tony being on the nose as it is a prerequisite for any turn to Turnbull, I hope people don’t think that I am actually predicting a Turnbull Prime Ministership anytime soon.

    I would like it, but I am not expecting it…….but one can always hope, can’t one?

  • 79
    briefly
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

    The LNP are losing 6/53rds of their vote every 100 days. If this continues, the LNP vote will be in single digits by the time of the next election. Considering the error rate by Abbott and Co, this is probably an optimistic forecast. They might disappear entirely, which would be NO SURPRISE and require NO EXCUSE.

  • 80
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    Christ! Mark Simkin is going in hard on the Abbott line, regarding deficits.

    That guy is a total tosser, completely up himself.

  • 81
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    It’s not just that I don’t like Abbott (his manner, his walk, his strange mouthing habits), but nothing that his team have done so far has been for the benefit of the country, the environment or the people. That is what is distressing me so much.

  • 82
    dave
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    4/125

  • 83
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

    BB makes a good point, the people who swung the balance to the Coalition believed the Abbott hype. Their not “insane sociopaths” just not very bright.

  • 84
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

    Andrew Greene ‏@AndrewBGreene 4m
    The ABC has learnt tomorrow’s MYEFO budget update will reveal 120 billion dollars worth of deficits over the next 4 years

  • 85
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    @lizzie/84

    Did Hockey add a few zeroes like he did with the NBN Review?

  • 86
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    Is that $30 bn multiplied by 4 years? You never know, in Hockeynomics.

  • 87
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

    @83 their should be they’re

  • 88
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

    on Twitter – no link

    Abbott to abolish Charities & Not for Profit Commission. Meaning some Churches/charities can operate tax free & no public scrutiny.

    Is that one of Gillards 457 master, John McTernans, Guns for Hire Twitter Barmy Army?

  • 89
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    The ABC has learnt tomorrow’s MYEFO budget update will reveal 120 billion dollars worth of deficits over the next 4 years

    So that’s ~$30 billion a year, a bit up on 2012-13. So its nothing unusual at all. Just mens Joe will not improve the bottom line due to political decisions Warren Truss has taken.

  • 90
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    Climate Council
    Korea leads developed countries with $40m pledge to the Green Climate Fund pic.twitter.com/FVbL0kdmdm MT @odi_development #COP19 #climate

  • 91
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:06 pm | PERMALINK
    BB makes a good point, the people who swung the balance to the Coalition believed the Abbott hype. Their not “insane sociopaths” just not very bright.

    The idea that you are smarter than those who vote for the Coalition is one of the reasons that more people actually vote for the Coalition, IMO…….it is not a very effective way of changing someone’s opinion to tell them they should do it because you are smarter than them!

  • 92
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    Leaked emails to the ABC showed that McTernan wanted his Labor stooges to go overdrive on Twitter to make “Abbott look unpopular”

  • 93
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/88

    Murdoch/IPA for hire ?

    Or is that the real Gun’s for Hire Lobby which is also from the USA?

  • 94
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    Ruawake @77

    I wonder if the Tory candidate in Griffith is having second thoughts. I recall him having a whinge About the timing of the poll, but be an opportunity to pull out and save himself some money.

  • 95
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/92

    Leaked emails showing division in the liberal party.

  • 96
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    lmao. Political strategist wanted to make opponent look unpopular.

    In other breaking news: water is wet, onions make you cry and fire is hot.

  • 97
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    Any chance that the Liberals will use tomorrow’s statement to ‘defer’ (I.e. Drop) PPL and Direct Inaction and blame it on Labor?

  • 98
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    Oh, that would make me an intellectual leftie would it ML?

    You seem to spend a bit of time around here pointing out what idiots people are anyhow.

  • 99
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    Seems Joe is throwing revenue away like a kebab wrapper.

  • 100
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    The ABC has learnt tomorrow’s MYEFO budget update will reveal 120 billion dollars worth of deficits over the next 4 years

    12 months ago

    JULIA Gillard has rebuffed concerns over the government's budget surplus by dismissing global risks to future tax revenue as "hypotheticals" that cannot be included in the official forecasts.

    The Prime Minister insisted she and Treasurer Wayne Swan were "determined" to post a $1.1 billion surplus this financial year and were "on track" to do so.

    "We stand by the predictions, the entries in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. We stand by the figures and we're on track to deliver a budget surplus," she said in Vientiane, where she is attending the Asia-Europe Meeting with dozens of other leaders.

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