tip off

Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

2320
  • 101
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    Sean, of all people, should not be giggling too hard about Labor stooges on Twitter, considering I’ve never seen a post on here by him that wasn’t a verbatim Liberal Party/Bolt Blog talking point. And, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s guilty of the same thing.

  • 102
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    That was from November 6 2012. How times change.

  • 103
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    Boo Abbott & Morroscum.

    So you want to stop the boats… but you want to give illegals permanent residency at the same time.

    God you Labor supporters are torn on what you believe…. don’t know if you are coming or going.

  • 104
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    I retract my “not very bright” accusation, please insert “easily conned” in place.

  • 105
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if the Tory candidate in Griffith is having second thoughts. I recall him having a whinge About the timing of the poll, but be an opportunity to pull out and save himself some money.

    I think he is locked in by his big mouth, Glasson funded his 2013 campaign mostly with his own funds, I guess the LNP are happy for him to do it again.

  • 106
    Darn
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Sohar, ML and ruawake for responding to my question re Morgan.

  • 107
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib,

    The last government was all about talk and spin
    ——————————————————

    the current Govt is all lies back flips and broken promises

  • 108
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/103

    You’re an idiot Sean, and continue to believe I am a Labor supporter or a Labor Member.

    Total farking idiot.

  • 109
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    mike h

    There’s no one more easily conned than the know-it-all who thinks he’s superior.

  • 110
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    lmao. Political strategist wanted to make opponent look unpopular.

    That’s okay but McTernan had his Labor Barmy Army, paid and probably unpaid, rig twitter accounts to try and make Abbott look unpopular.

    This 457 Rorter unfortunately didn’t realise however that being popular or unpopular on twitter doesn’t win you elections.

  • 111
    Centre
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    OOOHH

    It’s Reach TEL?

    Do you remember when Reach Tel said Beattie couldn’t win the seat he was contesting?

    Not many believed them then so why believe them now :P

  • 112
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    It’s been a hard day’s night. I’m off!

  • 113
    fredex
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    From Channel 7 and ReachTEL

    Prime Minister Abbott's personal rating has also tumbled; 32 percent rate him good or very good, 52 percent say poor or very poor.

  • 114
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    Leaked emails to the ABC showed that McTernan wanted his Labor stooges to go overdrive on Twitter to make “Abbott look unpopular”

    Seems that he didn’t need to bother. Abbott is doing a sterling job of that all by himself! ;-)

  • 115
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    And, if you want to talk about Twitter hacks, express any partisan opinion on the #auspol hashtag and watch how many come out of the woodwork to abuse you.

    As for the McTernan stuff, I have purposely been disinterested in the trivial revelations because I believe a guy like that deserves obscurity, not notoriety. I have known for ages to ignore tweeters like @geeksrulz (who was named), as well as other hacks and, frankly, anybody else with any common-sense or objectivity knew to as well.

  • 116
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

    Great appointment by Weatherill.

    FORMER federal Industry Minister Greg Combet will oversee the transformation of the automotive industry in South Australia in the wake of Holden's decision to stop manufacturing here.

    Mr Combet has been appointed to the new role of Automotive Transformation Coordinator.

    He will be paid $160,000 a year and his contract is open-ended.

    Premier Jay Weatherill said Mr Combet will work with the state's Advanced Manufacturing Taskforce and be responsible for coordinating assistance to auto workers and suppliers.

    Mr Weatherill said he had also asked Economic Development Board chairman Raymond Spencer to "lead efforts" to attract new industries to SA to fill the void to be left by Holden.

  • 117
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

    Has anyone read Mungo’s The Mad Marathon book?

  • 118
    poroti
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

    scorpio

    Seems that he didn’t need to bother. Abbott is doing a sterling job of that all by himself! ;-)

    Orrrrr McTernan’s cunning plan has worked :) But seriously , Abbott is the No.1 recruitment officer for the “Abbott Out Brigade”

  • 119
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

    It’s actually a very smart move by Weatherill. It shows he is trying to develop a contingency plan for the closure, rather than just navel-gaze or try and float over-ambitious long-term ideas that won’t convince voters.

  • 120
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 47s
    #ReachTEL Poll Abbott: Approve 31.7 (-5.5) Disapprove 52.1 (+5.7)

  • 121
    poroti
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    A damned fine pick .Vote 1 Combet.

  • 122
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

    What we should be doing is:

    1. Transform other Manufacturing of other industries now (Since Abbott killed the Car Industry).

    2. More support for Retail & Logistics.

    So we are not a one trick pony.

  • 123
    Centre
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

    Good to see Weatherill actually doing something.

    So far all Peta has done is twist a couple of strings to get Abbott’s mouth to move.

  • 124
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

    Hack I may be, but I’ve never tweeted on demand.

  • 125
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:33 pm | Permalink

    @fredex/113

    It is said that lower than 30 means possible Leader change?

    That what the polls saying with Japan’s Abe if it keeps going.

  • 126
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is on the teev now.

    Muted, natch.

    His lips are moving.

    Nuff said.

  • 127
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

    Another idea would be to move the population of SA involved in manufacturing to Melbourne and concentrate our efforts in one place.

    SA can then be the home of great wine, Christopher Pyne and water some people can drink.

    (ru dons flameproof suit) :P

  • 128
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

    absolutely astonishing and historical figures. there is no love affair in this marriage with the public, no honeymoon, no love for the leader at all. we are stuck with a limp whining partner in govt. yes rudd should have been magnanimous and done foreign affairs well, and given gillard a clean run against this clown. although really there was poison of june 2010 – the treatment to that illness is far far greater

  • 129
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

    soon the media and all will be playing abbott’s slogans back to him – election now election now.

  • 130
    dave
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:37 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes@102

    That was from November 6 2012. How times change.

    Indeed. Hockey & abbott were saying at that stage they would produce a balanced budget in their first year.

    Then it became first term. Now they are saying deficits for decades, while cutting tax that apply to their mates and handing out more middle class welfare via the PPL for example.

    But child care workers get a small salary increase taken back.

  • 131
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:37 pm | Permalink

    holden last week and now this – the country bleeds. and these morons will never take responsibility – holden wanted to be persuaded and they made an extraordinary attack on big business, the liberals! it beggars belief, what do they stand for except their own punctilious egos

  • 132
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:37 pm | Permalink

    Carey Moore,

    I’ll be down your way between the 22nd December & New Years Day.

    Puppy is putting together an Adelaide PB Chapter get-together and it would be great if you could come and meet up with any that you haven’t met so far and myself.

  • 133
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

    Just Me

    A moderate Libs & Labor centre-right party sounds like a good idea.

    Sean

    The government has got very little right in its first 100 days and before you come out with some leftie crap i point you to the earlier comment that calling criticism leftie is wrong.

    The government needs to get its act together, it needs to start acting more professionally and needs a clearer direction and policy focus.

  • 134
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:39 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur

    My condolences to you, hope that you are able to have a festive Christmas and next year beings happier times for you.

  • 135
    poroti
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    ruawake

    SA can then be the home of great wine, Christopher Pyne and water some people can drink.

    Or. Before donning Nuclear Biological Chemical suit

    SA can then be the home of great wine, Christopher Pyne, Lexy Downer , water some people can drink and beer that nobody will drink

    …………….. Disclaimer. Love Coopers Pale ale and Sparkling ale. Coopers Vintage Ale is nice but at over 7.0 % alcohol needs a safety warning.

  • 136
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes,

    I’ll be down your way between the 22nd December & New Years Day.

    Puffy is putting together an Adelaide PB Chapter get-together and it would be great if you could come and meet up with any that you haven’t met so far and myself.

    I’ll contact you when I know what is happening.

    If you can’t come to it, I would still love to meet up with you for a coffee at the Marion Shopping Centre.

  • 137
    spur212
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    It’s very refreshing to see the ALP finally in front in the polls but let’s not get carried away. There’s a long way to go yet.

    My theory for what it’s worth is that Abbott’s in the same category as Gillard in voters minds. My guess is as time goes on people will find it impossible to listen to him without having a negative reaction but we shall see.

    Early days

  • 138
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    Holden is an example of a lack of clear policy direction for the Government has not been able to outline a real reason for why it didn’t want to enter into a business arrangement.

    It had six years in opposition to network with Holden and others and develop a clear policy, the fact that Tone admitted in parliament that since the election he has not directly spoken to senior executives.

    When i read that the new CEO started out on the assembly line i think she may well haev been open to a mature and sensible approach which could have given both a positive ROI

  • 139
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    Abenomics (compared to Hockeynomics) get different mood in Japan despite his popularity poll, gives the business community a thumbs up, compare that to Australia:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/abenomics-gets-thumbs-up-japan-business-mood-at-sixyear-high-20131216-2zg8o.html

    & Compare public support for Abe:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/09/us-japan-politics-idUSBRE9B807120131209

  • 140
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    Scorpio, if time permits, I’d love to. Although, seeing my face might shatter the illusion of an all-knowing Adonis that you all have of me* :-P

    *joking!**

    **I’m not

  • 141
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes,

    I’ll be down your way between the 22nd December & New Years Day.

    Puffy is putting together an Adelaide PB Chapter get-together and it would be great if you could come and meet up with any that you haven’t met so far and myself.

    Your fellow Grecian, Socrates has expressed interest in coming too.

    I’ll contact you when I know what is happening.

    If you can’t come to it, I would still love to meet up with you for a coffee at the Marion Shopping Centre.

  • 142
    scorpio
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

    Carey Moore,

    I think we have already seen a likeness of you some time ago.

    You haven’t aged that badly in only a few years, surely! ;-)

  • 143
    Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

    It’s very refreshing to see the ALP finally in front in the polls but let’s not get carried away. There’s a long way to go yet.

    My theory for what it’s worth is that Abbott’s in the same category as Gillard in voters minds. My guess is as time goes on people will find it impossible to listen to him without having a negative reaction but we shall see.

    Early days

    Yes, early days. Will be interesting if the media treats him the same as Gillard too.

    I wonder when he will be thrown in a figurative chaff bag, kicked to death or Margie asked if she’s gay?

    When that all happens, then his numbers will really tumble. The media not being biased of course…

  • 144
    poroti
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

    spur212

    It has been a long dark night. Enjoying a few rays of sunshine, however long they last, should be allowed. They are a reminder that there is hope even in the darkest times.

  • 145
    Centre
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

    I will admit that I think Shorten can take a fair bit of credit for putting his nose in front within 100 days after Labor losing to a newly elected first term government.

    Well done Shorten but it couldn’t have happened if it wasn’t Abbott leading the Libs :)

  • 146
    confessions
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

    Evening all.

    The polls have continued to improve for LAbor ever since Rudd announced his retirement.

  • 147
    poroti
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    I take it you have now moved to the fall out shelter ? :lol:

  • 148
    leone
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

    Asylum seekers living in Australia forced to sign code of conduct
    Code of conduct threatens cancellation of visa and transfer to offshore processing if asylum seekers fail to meet obligations
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/16/asylum-seekers-living-in-australia-forced-to-sign-code-of-conduct

  • 149
    Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

    Evening all.

    The polls have continued to improve for LAbor ever since Rudd announced his retirement.

    Psephos, I think, predicted this.

    It was the clean air that was needed for the punters to finally focus on the Abbott Coalition.

  • 150
    Centre
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

    connie

    And the polls have continued to improve further since Gillard was booted as PM.

    Let’s hope 2014 will be Rudd/Gillard free here at PB.

    Yes I know, Parra have got a better chance of going the season undefeated and playing Wests Tigers in the grand final :shock:

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