tip off

Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

2320
  • 1801
    Windhover
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    Display Name at 1779:

    I think someone once asked if I was Sean Tisme

    It is not usually a sound practice to self-report such comparisons. It is not worse than admitting having been described as a steaming, f-witted, sh&tbrained rat’s dropping, if B Loots will pardon my mixed metaphoric emphasis.

  • 1802
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    The best way out of poverty is to get a job, it isn’t to expect a bigger welfare cheque.

    Welfare is there as a last resort it is not a lifestyle choice.

  • 1803
    DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    Fran, you’re unique ;) .

    boomy, why? It seems to me they can only have been trying to flatter Tisme, what with me being such a great person and all :angel: .

    Anyway, as far as I can tell there was nothing in 1655 that hasn’t been expressed earlier in some fashion by one of us, nor do they seem particularly dangerous in combination.

  • 1804
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    Zoomster

    I think there are certain issues with people get excited about, its like disability services an area i have extensive experience with yet some naturally take a defensive position.

    The same occurs on some others like education, which of course you have extensive experience with.

    I think it was best said by Puffy one that when you read extreme views by some its easy to mistake views which may sound similar but are from a different perceptive than just posting Tea Party rants.

  • 1805
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    ST

    Tell Abbott to stop putting people on welfare then

  • 1806
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/1802

    You’re an idiot.

    There are not enough Jobs to go around.

    Give us figures jobs available vs unemployed.

    Stop giving us more crap.

  • 1807
    imacca
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    I bet never, in her wildest dreams, did she imagine she’d one day be a submarine expert.

    Well she did sink her re-election chances after all. :)

    And there may be some old men on the board of ASC who need advice and assistance??

  • 1808
    Just Me
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord @ 1634, 1668, & 1675

    Thanks for the links.

    It is going to be a hard fight. Don’t let the bastards get away with it.

  • 1809
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    I kind of think Tone should be seeking a career change, he is appearing a bit stale.

  • 1810
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    Had to share this

    @LOLGOP: REMINDER: It took the Pope to point out that what Rush and the right smear as Marxism and socialism is actually genuine Christianity.

  • 1811
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    So the ABC is replicating the bias of the Murdoch media to demonstrate to the world that it is not biased. What a cunning plan.

  • 1812
    Resurgent Turkeys
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    I get called a troll all the time. People advise others to just ignore everything I say right in front of my face. And Fran Barlow won’t even recognise that I am a human being.

  • 1813
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    Being born with a disability is not a choice either.

    If you keep the disabled living in poverty you are keeping them from reaching their potential.

  • 1814
    imacca
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    Napthine says he takes Tony Abbott at his word.

    So Napthine is really NOT into evidence based assessment and evaluation then. Sad, he seems pretty reasonable otherwise.

  • 1815
    Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    So the ABC is replicating the bias of the Murdoch media to demonstrate to the world that it is not biased. What a cunning plan.

    And of course it is failing spectacularly, because it cannot ever be right wing enough for the Bolts, Sheehans and Devines, no matter how hard they have tried since the Howard-era.

  • 1816
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    I know a professional with a degree from a G8 University and has worked for several major financial firms yet is unable to find employment in the current market.

  • 1817
    DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Turkeys, diddums.

  • 1818
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Bit of a puzzle – either employment “sets you free” or arbeit does?

    I wonder which sign will go up over the gate way?

  • 1819
    Just Me
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    Being born with a disability is not a choice either.

    Neither is acquiring one, post-partum, through no fault of your own.

  • 1820
    DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    Windhover

    It is not usually a sound practice to self-report such comparisons.

    Yes, well who suffers by the revelation of such a question, myself or the person who asked it?

    :devil:

  • 1821
    Brenda Loots
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    Darren @1794 “Poor old Auntie — garbage in, garbage out.”

    Since you seem to be in the know: Is what’s showing up as news on the ABC web site really *only* driven by what’s in the news elsewhere? They don’t do any genuine journalistic work?

    One explanation for not reporting on each poll may be that the barrage of incredulous decisions and events surrounding this government in its first 100 days may just have overwhelmed the ‘shelf-space’ for news items.

    Even here people struggled to keep up with the outrage as we tumbled from Gonski to Holden to NBN etc, just to name the major ones. Luckily somebody’s counting the ‘surprises’
    Again, I think this is the quite deliberate counterpart to the comparable ‘rarity’ of Abbott appearances in the first two months and ‘secrecy’ around some of the things going on.

    Maybe a new variety of ‘Shock and Awe’?

  • 1822
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    You will not see Abbott do this.

    @guardiannews: Obama names Billie Jean King as one of two gay Sochi Olympic delegates http://t.co/ZGJQj5K4Wl

  • 1823
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    By the way Brenda, on my very first post here, a person called “Bemused” hammered my offering.

    Nothing changes really.

  • 1824
    The Big Ship
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    Acerbic Conehead.

    A question, if you’re prepared to advise, on the origins of your sobriquet? To my hazy recollection, your moniker was an ironic twist on the name of a right wing blogger who used to post on various ‘Australian’ newspaper journalists and contributors ‘comment’ sections in the run-up to the 2007 election?

    What was that annoying Howardite’s name, if you recall?

  • 1825
    DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    Tricot, that was no doubt an attempt to bemuse you and clone himself ;) .

  • 1826
    Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    The Big Ship:

    Nice to have you back on deck!

    All the best for the festive season.

    Kindest of regards,

    Darren Laver

  • 1827
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    “@CatherineDeveny: When I’ve been torched by media for ‘offensive comments’ Tim Wilson and the IPA have defended my rights, oh wait NO THEY FUCKING DIDN’T”

  • 1828
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    The best way out of poverty is to get a job, it isn’t to expect a bigger welfare cheque.

    Gosh! What a revolutionary idea! I’m sure nobody on Newstart has ever considered getting employment before!

    I’m sure all the South Australians who will be soon added to the dole queue will appreciate the great pearl of wisdom that they need a job.

  • 1829
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    sprocket_@1575

    Glenn Stevens explaining he didn’t ask for $8.8b

    http://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Parliament

    But, but, but….ABC TV News at Noon in Sydney told us Stevens had said the opposite.

    I haven’t heard much analysis of hockey’s MYEFO on ABC TV nor much rebuttal, instead I see an ABC meek and cowed and trying their best not to upset abbott and his thugs.

    It won’t save the ABC however unless they tell abbott to STFU and govern and keep his slimy nose out of trying to intimated them, an approach he at least understands.

    Then ABC cover yourself in the flag and quite a few people will support you including many who voted for abbott.

    In Regional Australia particularly.

  • 1830
    Just Me
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    1805
    guytaur

    ST

    Tell Abbott to stop putting people on welfare then

    I think that qualifies as a Snappy Answer.

    Anybody of a certain vintage remember those?

  • 1831
    Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    By the way Brenda, on my very first post here, a person called “Bemused” hammered my offering.

    Nothing changes really.

    And who can forget my say’s first posts? I was one of the few to give her the time of day and help her out technically.

    The internet is famous for having little tolerance for “newbies” — one has to just keep on keeping on.

    Most of the abuse I have coped on here has been from our esteemed moderator. But one develops a thick skin, regardless of whether people think I am stupid, unintelligent or, as was crudely put, a “dickhead”….

    No-one has a monopoly on being a victim in this particular asylum!

  • 1832
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    @Carey/1828

    Sean runs off again into to the sunlight.

  • 1833
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    People like Sean are right that a job is the best way out of poverty but what people like Sean overlook is you need an employer to hire you and in order to be hired you need the skills to do the job.

    Its called workforce planning

  • 1834
    Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    “@CatherineDeveny: When I’ve been torched by media for ‘offensive comments’ Tim Wilson and the IPA have defended my rights, oh wait NO THEY FUCKING DIDN’T”

    I am sure if Ms Deveny had some intellectual property to defend and had anonymously donated to IPA, they would have been out in her support with guns blazing…

  • 1835
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Yes My Say is a good example but also she was an example of the limitations of the internet in terms of the need to be clear and concise otherwise misunderstandings can quickly rise.

  • 1836
    Just Me
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    It won’t save the ABC however unless they tell abbott to STFU and govern and keep his slimy nose out of trying to intimated them,...

    Hope I am never intimated by Abbott’s slimy nose. A fate worse than death, I suspect.

  • 1837
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    @MB/1833

    Yes, and a goverment that is willing to help those businesses to higher people.

    Something that this goverment has failed to do so and address in the early stages.

  • 1838
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    DisplayName@1779

    I think someone once asked if I was Sean Tisme .

    Seems a reasonable and understandable question give the bullshit…err pearls of wisdom we see from you :kiss:

  • 1839
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    hire* @ 1837.

  • 1840
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    mb – Be nice because, I guess, she still sometimes watches.

  • 1841
    DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    dave

    pearls of wisdom

    *cries*

    Someone understands me!

  • 1842
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    CTar1@1797

    I note that Shorn has made at least 2 postings in the last 24hrs that have nothing to do with politics.

    He must be pissed again.

  • 1843
    Resurgent Turkeys
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    Racial tolerance map of the world: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2013/08/racial-tolerance-map-hk-fix.jpg

    Disappointing no doubt for those who love to bash their fellow Australians as racists.

  • 1844
    Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    I thought we had already worked out that “Sean” is multiple persons, operating on a shift basis.

    That is why his writing style varies wildly at different times of the day and his “stories” lack continuity.

  • 1845
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    ‘territorial pisser’

    *barks with glee*

    I am enjoying the great Loots episode muchly, as must Loots be.

    I would be pretty sure that if you run one of those plagiarism algorithms you will find that most of Loots stuff is a repeat of where another particular concern troll took Bludger before.

    Nothing wrong with that, of course. All part of the fun. What’s more… let who never repeats on Bludger cast the first post.

    Fran, as ever, does the analytics. Spot on, IMHO.

  • 1846
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    CTar1

    I am, she sometimes takes things too hard like the advice not to write in cap lock she took at criticism.

  • 1847
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    “@StephenLongAUS: Helloo. I’ve changed my twitter handle to @StephenLongAUS to make it clear that this is not an official ABC account. So there ya go!”

  • 1848
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    Dave – The surprise was that they were in responses to exchanges between other posters and relevant and one even showed a slight bit of a sense of humour.

  • 1849
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    Someone understands me!

    You missed the dripping sarcasm sweetie

    But hey its almost Christmas :kiss:

  • 1850
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    Surprise No 61. Hockey says Stevens asked for $8.8 billion. Stevens says he didn’t.

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