tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate puts Labor well into absolute majority territory, marking their sixth consecutive improvement.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.

This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.

3089
  • 101
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    @TheAusInstitute: Miners and Government cut down Environment Defenders Office. Docs reveal shady dealings http://t.co/gMzE2eQMEb #edo #auspol

  • 102
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    kezza

    Please explain as I’m obviously still living in the 20C ;)

    Why did you have to own a mobile?

  • 103
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Glen Stevens is correct about a medium-term strategy to correct the budget imbalance. It would not be possible to do it in one or two budgets in any case and I don’t believe that is Hockey’s intention. However the harsh reality is we have to start somewhere particularly when you consider the large amounts required to fund education and the NDIS from around 2016/2017. If we don’t start planning for that now we have no hope for those programs.

    We need an open and frank discussion about what we, as a country, expect governments to provide and how we ALL fairly contribute to fund those programs. The time for governments using smoke and mirrors, political rhetoric and a lack of courage to hide the real position from us is past. We need to start managing the expectation gap between what we demand government to do for us and how this is funded.

    Sadly we seem to be lacking a government of any persuasion capable of doing that.

    Trouble is we seem to want it all but we expect everyone else but ourselves to pay for it all. Long overdue reality is about to hit us all. Sadly perhaps not and we will just continue to be deluded by political rhetoris and blame games.

    Basically we have been living beyond our means and unless someone with courage deals with that the situation will only worsen. I have little faith we will admit the reality and even less faith we each will be prepared to be part of the solution.

  • 104
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    Why did you have to own a mobile?

    It’s about to become requirement under the Trans
    Pacific Partnership so that the NSA can intercept your calls and monitor your movements.

    How can they do that if you don’t own one?

  • 105
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    That is not this LNP Government. The way forward was put on the table by the Henry Review.

    Things like a mining tax

  • 106
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    dwh

    Basically we have been living beyond our means...

    Clever sophistry and a cute partner with the importance of getting government out of our lives so that we can all exercise ‘choice’.

    What ‘means’ would that be?

    If you continue down our decades-long path of becoming the lowest-taxed economy in the OECD we will have no ‘means’ at all and we will all, by definition, be living beyond our ‘means’.

  • 107
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    @strom_m: Hadley has to pay $280k in damages to fish-n-chip owner

    http://t.co/2CJFUNH03p

  • 108
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    g
    Excellent. Plus Ahmad’s costs. Plus court costs. Plus the costs of his own legal team.

  • 109
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    Coalition Party should be burnt alive on the BBQ.

    They have lied to the Australian People.

    The so the voters are retreating, and markets are in full reverse – getting out of Australia.

    Coalition Party tried to blame Labor for GM and Debt, but spectacularly failed.

  • 110
    kezza2
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    To activate a new card, by phone, is fine, but to access the card you have to have a password.

    The bank (which bank!)requires the account holder to have a mobile phone to send an SMS verifying the password.

    There was another option (snail mail) but I needed to use the card immediately, hence having to visit the bank in person. And no, an email address wouldn’t suffice.

    As I don’t possess a mobile phone, a trip to the bank was required.

    The worst part was that it was a card attached to another of my accounts. Same bloody password.

    I suppose they have to be careful, security wise, but still it was inconvenient.

    I guess I’m just a step ahead of the aged pensioners, whereby they have to do the fortnightly pension visit to the bank to withdraw cash from a bankbook, rather than having the pension deposited in an account and accessing it by a keycard.

    Hope that explains it.

  • 111
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    BBill will be pleased to hear the karma bus has hit Hadley

  • 112
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    Player One

    :D

  • 113
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    @chrismurphys: Judge said he hoped Hadley attack on woman would now be laid to rest “in the gutter from which it came” #auspol http://t.co/3fUw10Qx1S

  • 114
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:28 am | Permalink

    @davidwh/103

    This goverment is not doing what it was suppose to be doing.

    And living beyond out means is just a stupid excuse for mass-cuts across the board.

  • 115
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:28 am | Permalink

    Gonski, NDIS, PPL, the surplus, anti-AGW programs, environmental protection, Indigenous funding all under the hammer, closed for business, selling us down the drain on the TPP, in strife with China and Japan and boats still arriving.

    Needs unicorn, bad.

    Credlin suggests adoption.

    So the Great Jobs Liberator does adoption.

  • 116
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    victoria

    BB is not alone. I would be happy with 2GB losing its license for its gutter broadcasting style.

  • 117
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    2gb does indeed appear to be rabid. Good idea to put it down. :)

  • 118
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    psyclaw @ 47

    He accused Abbott of focusing entirely on “want”, not “need”, subsidising the former to the detriment of the latter.

    He said that those who need for nothing and want all are the ones best served by Abbott.

    Great post!

    Although it is not until you work in a State Electorate Office as I did for five years that you see the real face of poverty and mental illness.

    Good on John Falzon for raising this issue.

    We should all count our blessings.

    I note the real compassion in your post but Abbott will not change his methodology one little bit.

    He is there to rule for the wealthy – they put him there.

  • 119
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    Trouble is we seem to want it all but we expect everyone else but ourselves to pay for it all. Long overdue reality is about to hit us all. Sadly perhaps not and we will just continue to be deluded by political rhetoris and blame games.

    Basically we have been living beyond our means and unless someone with courage deals with that the situation will only worsen. I have little faith we will admit the reality and even less faith we each will be prepared to be part of the solution.

    This is wrong.

    The time to tighten spending, to restructure…is when economies are strong. You tighten belts in the good times where there is ample time and room for people to adjust, and loosen them in the bad where opportunities are less.

    Putting people onto the dole for the sake of budget balancing in the face of recession or global slowing is the stuff of vicious conservatives, the haves. The very same people who want prolifigate govts during the good times to feather their pockets and steal from future tax payers.

    But conservatives don’t mind creating an underclass, a working poor aka USA.

  • 120
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    [BB is not alone. I would be happy with 2GB losing its license for its gutter broadcasting style.}

    Should have happened long ago!

    The courts got that one right.

  • 121
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    Hottest global November on record:

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11

  • 122
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    EAST Timor has launched proceedings in the United Nations’ top court over ASIO raids on the office of a Canberra lawyer representing the tiny country.

    Early this month, the domestic spy organisation ASIO raided lawyer Bernard Collaery’s office and seized documents relating to a dispute with Australia over a $40 billion oil and gas treaty.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/east-timor-takes-court-action-against-canberra-overasio-raids/story-e6frg6nf-1226786342684?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAustralianTheWorld+%28The+Australian+%7C+The+World+News%29

  • 123
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    kezza

    Ah yes, the compulsory text.
    Our family all have our pensions deposited straight into a card account (2 different banks). Is the Commbank out of step?

  • 124
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    Abbott sold his arse indeed, and his business mates and ideological owners are queued up behind him having a merry old time.

    Hockey twice the size is getting twice the customers.

    Abbott is a political whore.

  • 125
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    Good Morning Everyone!!!

    What a glorious day. The sun is shining, the birds are singing and Tony Abbott is still Prime Minister.. for at least the next 3 years.

  • 126
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    NATIONAL Australia Bank chairman Michael Chaney has warned that Australia is facing years of modest economic growth and higher jobless rates.

    However the bank, Australia's largest lender to business, says there are some tentative signs of an improving economic environment that it can take advantage of.

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/breaking-news/nab-chair-warns-on-jobs-growth/story-fnj6ehgr-1226786484530

  • 127
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    “The adoption unicorn”

    I thought the same, especially as he seemed to be talking without a script. Very poor presentation.

  • 128
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    MTBW #118

    :)

  • 129
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    @Sean/125

    The markets are retreating, unemployed going up, Abbott in Hiding.

    Yeah great work, idiot.

  • 130
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    Thomas Paine you don’t have to do it just by cutting expenses although it is important for any government to ensure their spending programs deliver targeted results either economic or social. So cutting waste is important. However we won’t solve our current situation by slashing spending. We need a complete overhaul of taxation programs, traditional tax breaks and welfare programs. It’s been needed for years but no government has the courage to do it and unless one does sooner rather than later we will just keep digging the hole deeper.

  • 131
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Player One

    Why did you have to own a mobile?

    It’s about to become requirement under the Trans
    Pacific Partnership so that the NSA can intercept your calls and monitor your movements.

    How can they do that if you don’t own one?

    That is wRONg and completely unfair.

    You will be allowed not to own a mobile as long as you agree to have a Foxtel set top box with a camera and microphone. :D

  • 132
    sohar
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    “Hottest global November on record” – how come, BW? Tony was elected before that, and there has been no more global warming since 7 September, 2013… apparently.

  • 133
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    Excellent. Plus Ahmad’s costs. Plus court costs. Plus the costs of his own legal team.

    What payout did the sexually abused girl get???

  • 134
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    @davidwh/130

    This goverment is worse than the previous goverment, and this goverment wants quick fixes to the economy.

  • 135
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    Right Wing types rave about waste. Yet happy to waste billions subsidisng rich corporations.

    Just hypocrisy and political use of the word waste because it is a good sounding attack line.

    We have seen Waste, Red Tape etc used by the GOP and especially its radical wing the Tea Party. The result was the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico and the Global Finance Crisis as there the lack of regulation put the crokls in charge.

  • 136
    Marty
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    @davidwh

    Read Fredex’s link on the first page about the silliness of the idea that we are living beyond our means.

  • 137
    Asha Leu
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    @Sean Tisme 125

    Good Morning Everyone!!!

    What a glorious day. The sun is shining, the birds are singing and Tony Abbott is still Prime Minister.. for at least the next 3 years.

    For once, I agree with you Sean (okay, maybe not your last point). Labor’s surging ahead in the polls, the Coalition’s stuck with a terrible leader, the knives are being sharpened in cabinet, and there’s still three more years until the Australian people can free Abbott and his government from the nightmare they’ve created for themselves and return them to the consequence-free playpen of opposition. What’s not to like?

    Though I do wish those birds would shut up in the morning.

  • 138
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    A lawyer for an Indian driver who fled Australia after a fatal car accident says his client will not receive a fair trial if he is extradited because of hatred towards Indian students.

    This lawyer from India of course doesn’t look to his own disgusting morally rotten country, the country that refuses to prosecute an epidemic of violent vicious gang rapes on women of ALL ages.

  • 139
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    Howard had a different team, they were not all clones of Barnaby and Minchin.

    The Renewable Energy Target has been the main driver in establishing Australia's clean energy industries in wind and solar. These industries provide employment and increasingly affordable energy, which is generated without polluting the air we breathe.

    The RET is also driving investment in Australian technology, with our own universities developing and designing new ways to harness the nation's abundant sunlight. This type of intellectual property is in global demand by countries ramping up their own clean energy industries. China's rapid expansion of renewable energy provides a remarkable economic opportunity for Australian engineers, scientists, manufacturers and entrepreneurs.

    Without the Renewable Energy Target, Australians can say goodbye to renewable energy in this country. If the Abbott Government strips the RET away, it will crush the industry to dust while other nations continue to rocket forward.

    Howard pragmatically combined his popular conservative rhetoric with serious policymaking on environmental issues. He deliberately flew below the radar at times to get the work done. That took real political skill. He did not abandon industries or environmental responsibilities, he did not block out the reality of a changing world. And he did not embarrass Australia in the international arena.

    A clever leader knows it is dangerous to ignore the national interest and the public good – both illuminate the path ahead. Abbott would do well to take a breath and examine his role-model’s example.

    https://newmatilda.com/2013/12/19/case-conservative-environmentalism?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

  • 140
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    Labor’s surging ahead in the polls

    Three years too early… Howard could tell you quite a story about Labor early surges in the polls. :)

  • 141
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/140

    Howard isn’t Abbott.

  • 142
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    Earlier Boerwar mentioned Niki Savva’s piece today in the Oz

    TRYING to apportion, down to the last billion, who is responsible for what portion of the stupendous $47 billion budget deficit is in some respects a pointless exercise.

    Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey can continue to hang it on Labor until the last cent of debt is paid - probably some time in the second half of this century the way things are going. They are entitled to do so because legitimate arguments can be made to say almost all of it is Labor's fault, one way or another.

  • 143
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

    Hopefully link will work

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/abbott-must-reboot-to-start-new-year-with-passion/story-fnahw9xv-1226786152088

  • 144
    kezza2
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    Sadly we seem to be lacking a government of any persuasion capable of doing that.

    Oh, puhleese, crocodile tears.

    No ‘sadly’ about it at all. We had a government prepared to gently unwind Howard/Costello’s defilement of the budget; to make it not so financially difficult for everyone of us.

    But it had to be done on tippy-toe (your so-called smoke and mirrors) so as not to offend the wealthy who had the means to destroy every attempt at correcting the underlying structural imbalance caused by Howard and Costello.

    That would be the mining oligarchs, coupled with the press barons.

    And, boy, didn’t the the obscenely rich descend into monumental outrage at the very suggestion their obscene profits were to be redistributed to all 23 million of us, including them and their families.

    And now we have a compliant government, who has or is attempting to, undo everything Labor tried,so as to look after the lives of the most needy in Australia – the wealthy.

    Sick of taxpayer dollars propping up corporate Australia?, asks the fool Abbott, as he gives more tax dollars to his corporate supporters. What a hypocrite.

    I don’t recall you, davidwh, contributing much to the discussion we needed to have. You were shillyshallying all over the place, trying to protect a mirage that somehow corporate Australia, both big and small, was all that mattered.

    Thatcherism, whereby we live in an economy not a society, in disguise.

    That’s one of the reasons I pulled you up on your “baby-sitting” shenanigans. You have responsibility for your grandchildren. You are emotionally involved in their development. You were not merely providing a child-minding service for free.

    And that’s the same Australia-wide. As a society, we have a responsibility for each other, and each other’s welfare.

    When we start relinquishing that responsibility into individual enterprise, and individual rewards, then we all lose.

  • 145
    sustainable future
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    [Hottest global November on record:

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11

    which brings us to 345 consecutive months (28.8 year!) of above long term average temperatures. the warming trend is moving up again after a brief lull – what bullshit will the anti-action crew grab on to now? (they’ve mostly moved to ‘nobody denies the planet is warming but the question is how much are humans causing it and how sensitive is the climate to warming?’ even when they still revert to ‘it’s cooling’ and ‘CO2 is harmless, colorless (& if you have the PMs deep scientific grasp of the issue ‘weightless’) plant food’ – they also stick their fingers in their ears when scientists explain that no other hypothesis explains observed warming and what the planet looked like last time CO2 levels were as high as they are now and where they are heading – the only uncertainty is whether the changes will take decades or centuries, but we are already locked into a vastly changed planet and by the time we turn this around will be locked into very severe changes and possibly a chaotic climate and ecosystems collapses/shifts over most of the habitable areas.

    Hunt and Turnbull are evil pricks for their understanding and complicity in the COALition’s attack on the environment.

  • 146
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    sohar

    “Hottest global November on record” – how come, BW? Tony was elected before that, and there has been no more global warming since 7 September, 2013… apparently.

    For 2013, Australia has been leading the charge. The interesting thing is that this November heat was achieved without the benefit of an El Nino.

    It will be interesting to see how the MSM report both global November and YTD Australia: both at record levels.

    Have checked the deniers blogs: no mention of the November stat, but plenty of pictures and references to snow in Jerusalem, etc, etc, etc.

  • 147
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Twitter

    Heard J Bishop say on ABC Radio this morn that Nauru no worse than or better than mining camps in Oz!!

    This woman can’t be real. :P

  • 148
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    December looks to be following November in the heat stakes.

    37 in Hobart today.

  • 149
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    @Victoria/143

    What Abbott needs to do is Investment, you cannot just cut.

    Investment creates jobs, which in-return creates Income Tax and GST Revenue.

    UK just announced 110 billion pounds just in Energy Investment.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-18/u-k-energy-bill-passes-into-law-underpinning-investment.html

  • 150
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    vic @ 142

    Doesn’t she know the difference between debt and deficit?

    The debt is what Labor has racked up. Deficits are essentially plans for the future. The Liberals own all of them starting now.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...