tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate puts Labor well into absolute majority territory, marking their sixth consecutive improvement.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.

This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.

3089
  • 3051
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    cud chewer@3050

    All I want for Xmas is a Liberal leadership spill

    Insufficient!

    Election Now! :D

  • 3052
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    bemused

    Election Now! :D

    Right on!

  • 3053
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    CTar1@3052

    bemused


    Election Now!


    Right on!

    Hey, you haven’t picked up that carton of milk you asked me to get for you when I went grocery shopping on Saturday. When can I expect you? :P

  • 3054
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    3051

    Block supply!

    As Fraser showed, that is how to get fresh election.

  • 3055
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    bemused _ I thought you said you’d drop it off!

    A good day today I hope for You and Yours.

  • 3056
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    CTar1@3055

    bemused _ I thought you said you’d drop it off!

    A good day today I hope for You and Yours.

    Are your difficulties with eyesight or reading comprehension? :P

    And I hope you and yours also have a good day today.

  • 3057
    don
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    cud chewer@3050

    All I want for Xmas is a Liberal leadership spill

    Nooooooooo!!!!

    Tony is the best asset Labor has!

  • 3058
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    3057

    The comment says nothing about it being a successful spill! Abbott deserves leadership instability.

  • 3059
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    Carlos Santana embracing the Christmas spirit.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/music/carlos-santana-has-been-reunited-with-his-former-bandmate-marcus-malone-after-more-than-40-years/story-fni0bvjn-1226789580144

  • 3060
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    Here’s something to cheer the Murdoch haters.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1aZcsY-O8Q

  • 3061
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    Merry christmas all! 2014 certainly promises to be a better year for Labor than 2013 was. The only way is up for Labor with a ham fisted Liberal government and an economy requiring some actual decisions from two people whose only career skills have been to promote fear and criticise sensible reforms. Now they need to introduce some reforms of their own.

    The WA Senate election rerun should be a hoot. I’d love to hear an interview with the marginal Liberal Senator when the result is announced.

    Off to heat pudding and drink wine. Looking forward to the cricket tomorrow too :)

  • 3062
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    soc

    Off to heat pudding

    Use the microwave. I’ve just done it and it works well.

  • 3063
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    CTar

    Agreed. Back from heating, and eating, the pudding and you are correct bout the microwave. I just added a little bit of water to stop it drying out in the microwave. Too easy, and it was delicious. The brandy cream was not bad either :)

    Santa, any chance you could convince the elves to make brandy cream through the year, espcially winter, and not just stock it at christmas?

  • 3064
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    Socrates

    Come on,it’s easy and this is real brandy not flavouring :lol:

    1 cup heavy cream (whipping cream)
    2 -3 tablespoons icing sugar
    3 tablespoons brandy

    Directions:

    1
    Whip cream & icing sugar together until soft peaks form.
    2
    Then quickly fold in the brandy.

  • 3065
    cud chewer
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    We usually add a bit of orange juice to stop the pudding drying out, or re hydrating it later.

  • 3066
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    Vanilla Ice Cream with a drip of Brandy on it. YUM!

  • 3067
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    I hadn’t seen this before. :D

    ‏@BrashsHelpline 18 Sep
    @TurnbullMalcolm We have some great deals on 3.5" disks if you're looking for a fast alternative to FTTN

  • 3068
    Cameron Chen
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Merry Christmas to you all.

    Just wondering how likely a WA Senate rerun election is.
    I believe that the most likely result of a WA rerun would probably be 3 Liberal, 2 Labor and 1 Green if there is a swing away from the Abbott Government? It would be at the expense of a right-wing minor party.

    So Abbott Govt would now need 6 out of 7 crossbenchers rather than 6 out of 8? (Not too sure about the actual numbers)

    Either way this is enough to repeal carbon tax but not for introduction of direct action or the paid parental leave scheme in its current state?

    Griffith looks like Labor retain?

  • 3069
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

    Hey all, back from the family gathering.

    Chaotic as usual when Kids are involved, but that’s what we adults (the real ones, not the ones in Parliament) do best.

    Kids are pretty happy with their presents.

    It’s hot and sticky/dry in Brisbane.

    27.8 degrees.

    Ah well, I don’t have much long before I visit Winter Japan.

  • 3070
    briefly
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    It’s sublime in Perth, as usual. We’ve taken the customary swimming and body-surfing to heart, and now enjoying cucumber salad and prawns while preparing tomorrow’s bumper lunch.

    All is well in paradise.

  • 3071
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    Watch out for sharks, Bemused. We wouldn’t want to lose you at this late stage.

  • 3072
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

    1
    Whip cream & icing sugar together until soft peaks form.
    SAMPLE BRANDY

    2
    Then quickly fold in the brandy.

    SAMPLE BRANDY AGAIN JUST TO CHECK

    SAMPLE SAUCE

    SAMPLE BRANDY

    PASS OUT QUIETLY

  • 3073
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    kinkajou

    As long as you do it quietly and don’t frighten the horses!

  • 3074
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    Well, I’ll be darned.

    I thought PB was on hols. Seem to remember history stopped for nearly two weeks without PB this time last year??

    One just can’t be away from the hurly-burly a second these days without the world/caravan/circus moving on without you.

    Hope PBers have a Christmas they would hope for.

  • 3075
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

    Can you get a better Christmas gift than having five of the best grandkids saying “Love you Poppy”. Nup, life is good.

    Hope everyone has had a great day. Bless you all.

  • 3076
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

    PASS OUT QUIETLY

    ….and I think they all did boys and girls…only 3 posts in almost 2 hours

  • 3077
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    One just can’t be away from the hurly-burly a second these days without the world/caravan/circus moving on without you.

    julia Gillard forgot to come back…beginning of the end

  • 3078
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/pictures/national-geographic-best-travel-photos-of-2013-9015423.html

  • 3079
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill@3070

    Watch out for sharks, Bemused. We wouldn’t want to lose you at this late stage.

    Too cryptic for me BB. :|

  • 3080
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/fallen-idols-22-heroes-of-popular-culture-we-said-farewell-to-in-2013-9018927.html

  • 3081
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Just back from having a very casual Christmas evening meal at my eldest sons place, on the deck beside his pool.

    I used to think swimming pools in Melbourne didn’t make a lot of sense with too short a season. But with a pool cover to keep the heat in at night and a heat pump pretty much entirely powered by his solar panels, it is just great and the season much extended.

    Youngest grand-daughter turns 4 in April, but can already dog-paddle across the pool, jumps in, goes under water with no fear and won’t have a bar of floaties or any other flotation device. Just amazes me.

    Yep, I am one hell of a proud grand-father. :D

  • 3082
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    lizzie@3064

    Socrates

    Come on,it’s easy and this is real brandy not flavouring

    1 cup heavy cream (whipping cream)
    2 -3 tablespoons icing sugar
    3 tablespoons brandy

    Directions:

    1
    Whip cream & icing sugar together until soft peaks form.
    2
    Then quickly fold in the brandy.

    Hi Lizzie, I passed that recipe on to my wife for her to consider against alternatives.

    Thanks for posting it.

  • 3083
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    No Christmas hiatus yet this year?

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/legislative-council-voting-patterns.html

    Tasmanian Legislative Council voting patterns – revised analysis taking things up to the end of 2013. I’ve found the Liberal Party often doesn’t get things its own way.

  • 3084
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Merry Xmas, bludgers. I over indulged, again. I went on the Port River dolphin cruise Xmas luch with my Mum, sons and a couple of friends.
    Good lunch, nice wine, saw dolphins.

  • 3085
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    You don’t need brandy in the cream if you put enough over the pudding. Brandy, that is.
    This is the correct recipe.
    t
    taste pudding
    taste brandy.
    sprinkle brandy over pudding.
    taste brandy
    Look at pudding.
    Pour brandy over pudding.
    Set it alight
    Don’t burn down kitchen.

  • 3086
    Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, December 25, 2013 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Re Christmas pudding – you also need to add threepences and sixpences. I suspect my grandmother slipped them into the slices after they were cut to ensure that no one missed out and all the kids came out more or less equal.

  • 3087
    Schnappi
    Posted Thursday, December 26, 2013 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    Steve777
    Although never let on ,caught both my Mum and Grandmother salting the Pud with threepence and sixpence ,being silver, as they first boiled the coins, and slipped in just before serving

  • 3088
    paaptsef
    Posted Thursday, December 26, 2013 at 3:05 am | Permalink

    more than 6,700 people have been killed in Iraq since the beginning of 2013, according to AFP figures based on security and medical sources http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-26/an-iraq-bombs/5174946

  • 3089
    Posted Thursday, December 26, 2013 at 4:42 am | Permalink

    New thread.

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