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Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

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  • 1
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    The WA result a shocker for the local Libs but I expect most of it is down to State politics.

    However when we may have a second attempt at the Federal Senate vote and once people get in mind the want to vote for the Opposition next time out some of this would effect the re-vote.

  • 2
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    Invariably with anything in life, when the growth of something gets so large it is out of touch with reality at some point the bubble must burst.

    We are currently in a wage bubble and with increasing unemployment it just proves that it is unsustainable.

    It will be interesting to see unemployment numbers 12 months from now.
    ===========================================

    Increasing as Abbott’s policies chase manufacturers out of Australia.

    Abbott will never achieve his added two million jobs promise.

    The only thing he’s added to is the unemployment lines

  • 3
    PeeBee
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    At least Sean is walking the talk by only getting $100k a year (after years of building up his business). Keep up the good work Sean, I would hate to see your wage burst (or has it already done so?).

  • 4
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    Sean has the gauls to complain about him making $100k and no hire anyone.

  • 5
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    1
    CTar1

    The WA result a shocker for the local Libs but I expect most of it is down to State politics.

    The Senate re-vote will amount to a State-wide by-election, something the LNP should approach with trepidation. Voters can give the LNP a total hiding without upsetting the balance of power in the House of Reps and they most likely will.

    At a local level, the LNP clearly just lied their way back into office. I think there is widespread shock with the budget cuts, the loss of the credit rating and the postponement of promised infrastructure spending. Voters will want to let Abbott know they won’t tolerate the same kind of games from him.

  • 6
    Tricot
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    CM at other thread. Yes, you are right, but you get the point I am sure.

    I am sure Al Capone had it right at the time!

  • 7
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    Like with everybody else, I don’t actually give a shit what Sean does for coin, or how much he earns. Whether he’s on Centrelink, a small business owner or the CEO of a fortune 500, I don’t give a shit. To each, their own.

    However, he smugly spends his time here gloating about the big bucks he’s earning and how much he’s working (implying that makes him superior to everyone else.) So, it’s very hard to avoid being sceptical and point out his inconsistencies and bullshit claims.

    I do confess, however, I went overboard last night and probably made the board uncomfortable for visitors. For that, I apologise. I will reel it back in.

  • 8
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    but you get the point I am sure.

    Yes, I did :-)

    Typical Huguenot! :-P

  • 9
    John Ryan
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    After Frank your an Amateur

  • 10
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    Sean Tisme

    We are currently in a wage bubble and with increasing unemployment it just proves that it is unsustainable.

    There is no basis for this claim. In fact, the data show that as labour demand stagnates, earnings growth has also ticked down is just about matching the (recently below trend) growth in prices.

    However, we have experienced a very prolonged real exchange rate appreciation – recently partly reversed – which has pushed incomes well above those of our trading partners. This is a real problem for exporters and import-competing industries. The causes of this lie mostly outside this economy, in the monetary policies of the US, EU and Japan.

    The result is very feeble growth in the domestic economy. If Sean is finding his IT service business is not growing fast enough to allow him to compete for talented workers, he should ask how growth rates can be lifted in the economy as a whole and how he can improve his own firm’s productivity. And he should reflect on the decisions and leanings of the LNP, which will only retard growth rates and inhibit investment.

  • 11
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    Sean tells us that he runs an IT business and yet supports the COALitions fraud band over the NBN.

    That tells me that he doesn’t really run an IT business.

  • 12
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    I didn’t think you could make that much selling Tupperware from Mum’s lounge room

  • 13
    John Ryan
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    Sean must a great businessman if he supports 4th best as the best option,you don’t need a new part says Sean you will do better with this 4th hand knockdown.

  • 14
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    At least Sean is walking the talk by only getting $100k a year (after years of building up his business). Keep up the good work Sean, I would hate to see your wage burst (or has it already done so?).

    There comes a point where you have too much work to make anymore money… but to hire someone will cost you a significant amount.

    I am at that point, hence my complaint about minimum wages.

  • 15
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    From reading 14 it appears you are at the point of needing an extra person but are not big enough yet to hire full-time.

    If that is correct, start by hiring part-time then as the business grows in scale you can then increase their hours.

  • 16
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    14
    Sean Tisme

    There comes a point where you have too much work to make anymore money… but to hire someone will cost you a significant amount.

    I am at that point, hence my complaint about minimum wages.

    This would only make sense if your hourly charge-out rate was close to the minimum wage, in which case, it’s hard to see how you can be making much of an income in the first place.

    Rather than complaining about the modest wages available to low-skilled workers – who could not possibly work in IT and who you never employ – you should ask what you can do to attract and retain high-value workers who can improve your business.

  • 17
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    ST, considering how little regard you have for those who work for others, it is, in fact, highly unlikely that you could recruit and retain talented workers in any case.

  • 18
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    on that cheerful note, I’m off

  • 19
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    I assume Tisme wishes to hire someone to take over some of his more menial chores and that he doesn’t consider them (the chores) to be worth $25k pa. Is that right?

  • 20
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    Sean Tisme@14


    At least Sean is walking the talk by only getting $100k a year (after years of building up his business). Keep up the good work Sean, I would hate to see your wage burst (or has it already done so?).


    There comes a point where you have too much work to make anymore money… but to hire someone will cost you a significant amount.

    I am at that point, hence my complaint about minimum wages.

    In other words, you’re just Greedy.

  • 21
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    DN

    I assume Tisme wishes to hire someone to take over some of his more menial chores and that he doesn’t consider them (the chores) to be worth $25k pa. Is that right?

    I assume Tisme wants to employ someone as cheaply as possible to do all of the work.

  • 22
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/14

    1. Part-Time.
    2. Contractors.
    3. 457?

    Other options are probably available, now stop complaining about minimum wages, when it effects every one, not just you’re business.

  • 23
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    Tism

    How about this, you have too much work available, so you raise your prices.

    Then you make more money from those willing to pay, and others can do the left over work and they make money as well.

    Too simple?

  • 24
    Ian
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    If he does it’ll be one of those…Speed up your computer now!!…scams. Though serious consideration must be given to the possibility of tisme being a Nigerian I.T. expert.

  • 25
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    Sean simply objects to others earning enough just to feed themselves.

  • 26
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

    CTar, you are a cynic ;) .

  • 27
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    yb

    ST just wants to drag Australia down to the US level on wages.

    Of course if he was in IT he would realise workers in that sector are the best paid as companies are scared of the maverick start up syndrome if a worker feels underpaid.

  • 28
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    Well at least Tisme knows how to get advice for free.

    Convince a bunch of bleeding heart lefties on an internet forum that he lacks imagination and then talk about his business struggles. They all then leap in with helpful suggestions coz they’re such nice people who like to help those in need ;) .

  • 29
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    100k? I make more than that on my superannuation and thanks to Abbott people like me are even better off.

  • 30
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    DisplayName

    I am amazed at how many small businesses are actually a job creation scheme for the unemployable.

    Get a payout and start your one man (or woman) consultancy.

  • 31
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    Some people have forgotten the financial advantages that immigrants bring to Australia. Also, how many skilled workers amongst the boat refugees are we ignoring?

    The number of young doctors trained in the UK or Ireland but now working in Australian A&E departments has soared by 69% from 285 in 2008 to 481 last year, the study shows.

    Dr Cliff Mann, president of the College of Emergency Medicine, which represents A&E doctors, said the growing exodus of registrars represented "a colossal loss of talent by A&E units which cannot afford to lose them" at a time when demand from patients has reached unprecedented levels.

    He said the trend was "an unacceptable waste of taxpayers' money, because each of these UK-trained registrars has cost about £610,000 over the five years of their medical degree and subsequent five years as a junior NHS doctor".

    There are now so many registrars from the UK and Ireland in Australian emergency departments that they comprise almost one in four (23.1%) of the workforce there, according to the Australian College of Emergency Medicine.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/dec/27/exodus-nhs-doctors-australia

  • 32
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    If Morrison grants a protection visa to this lady, I wonder what SH-Y’s reaction will be?

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/28/ambassador-asylum-plea-scott-morrison-will-assess-case-on-its-merits

  • 33
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    In the meantime will Manus and Nauru be options Morrison will consider?

  • 34
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    If Morrison grants a protection visa to this lady, I wonder what SH-Y’s reaction will be?

    Scooter will hire a paddle-boat and sign the approval while out on Lake Burley Griffin.

    It will be an ‘on-water operational matter and therefore ‘Secret’.

  • 35
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    Hasn’t Morrison done a TPV fiddle by saying no protection visas will be granted until next year?

  • 36
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    rua

    He’s already taken that Regulation back as it was going to be challenged in the HC.

  • 37
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think Morrison actually knows what he’s doing at the moment, but if he tries to send the Ambassador home he’ll cop everything but the kitchen sink, therefore he’ll break his own “rules” if he thinks it necessary, and that will be UNFAIR.

  • 38
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Abbott reckons Australia is a great place…

    just not the place to have your family holidays!!!

  • 39
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    AA

    Shhh there could be a European Aviation strike brewing, Abbott could be stranded until rescued by the RAAF.

    Or maybe he could find a boat to cruise on. :lol:

  • 40
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    @AA/38

    Apparently no one but them is allowed to take holidays, with low wages, and high living conditions.

  • 41
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    High costs of living* @ 40.

  • 42
    PeeBee
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    Lizzie ‘Some people have forgotten the financial advantages that immigrants bring to Australia.’

    That may not be a financial advantage if. Similar proportion of who they attend to are also immigrants. That they bring both financial advantages and financial liabilities.

  • 43
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    Increasing prices wont necessary make a business more profitable as higher prices will reduce the quantity demanded from customers and the level between the two will be determined by local market conditions.

  • 44
    PeeBee
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    Sean, you don’t make sense. Last night you said you were on a high hourly rate and only make $100k because you don’t work many hours (giving you time to reno the bathroom and post here).

    Now you are saying you are flat out and have too much work!

    Which is it?

    If you have too much work, you are ideally place to take on labour. The thing with a successful business is having some one buy what you have to offer. It sounds like you are in that situation (at least what you have said today). You have to negotiate a cost with your client a charge out rate of say 2.5 times the salary you pay your employee. Problem solved and you are well on the way to retirement.

    I would say the problem in your field is the low ‘barrier to entry’. Why would an employee work for you when they could go to your client and ask for the 2.5 times what they are getting from you and set up in competition to you.

    Your problem has nothing to do with high minimum wage. If you paid what you want to pay an employee, they would walk.

  • 45
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    DN

    Yes i think we should e sending Sean the bill for services provided by the PB business consultancy firm.

  • 46
    Mr Pajama Pudding
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    Tisme has built an IT business “over many years”, yet he cannot afford staff on the minimum wage??? Forgive me, but BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Surely this is bullsheet?

    I’ve been working in IT for 16 years. The first 3 years were running my own business, then I joined a company as IT Manager for a decade, before returning to running my own IT business due to a turn for the worse in my life partner’s health. I now work from home on a part time basis, in-between caring for my partner.

    It’s not difficult for an IT business to make a good profit, assuming the business owner has the relevant expertise, is willing to work hard and has the ability to communicate effectively with customers. The last bit is the most important: if you arent a very good listener, your IT business will struggle to retain customers and your business will eventually fail.

    I think it’s hilarious that someone encumbered by the cognitive dissonance displayed by Tisme is even able to use a computer, much less run an IT business and service the demanding customers IT professionals must accommodate. This gives us clues as to some of the sources of Tisme’s many prejudices and his bitter heart – he has to deal with customers who expect an IT service provider to know how to solve complex problems!

    It’s no wonder he can’t afford employees, especially given the amount of time he wastes trolling Poll Bludger…

  • 47
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    PeeBee

    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    Lizzie ‘Some people have forgotten the financial advantages that immigrants bring to Australia.’
    ——————————————-

    Immigrants made Australia the great nation it is today.

    Although we do have one trying to tear it down. Bloody Abbott!!!!

  • 48
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    AAchmed

    I am very pleased that someone who is as financially secure as you seem to be is still a Labor supporter. Shows a good conscience :)

  • 49
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    AA
    Hope that didn’t sound patronising. I certainly didn’t mean it to be.

  • 50
    Bobalot
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    PeeBee@44

    Sean, you don’t make sense. Last night you said you were on a high hourly rate and only make $100k because you don’t work many hours (giving you time to reno the bathroom and post here).

    Now you are saying you are flat out and have too much work!

    Which is it?

    Someone lying on the internet? Who would have thought.

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