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Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

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  • 901
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    @silmaj/897

    You are no different to Sean, once someone from the liberals start it, you continue it.

  • 902
    silmaj
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    898
    I thought Sean’s point although perhaps poorly worded is that he prefers his own doctor and makes an appointment. His reasons are his own but obviously he believes that his health may be benefited.

  • 903
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 8:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Oakeshott Country

    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

    How is paying for a health service a tax?
    ===============

    Same reason paying a carbon price is a “tax”.

    ————–well said indeed. and why you’re add it, why not include private insurance and school fees and road tolls and …. as forms of indirect tax because that is what they are – and usually not as good value for money as direct taxation on the whole …

    the $5 fee to doctors is a big tax abbott

  • 904
    silmaj
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    900
    Be sure to ask the next person driving alone in there car with the mask.

  • 905
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    @silmaj/902

    Umm, You do that anyway?

    Ring up family doctor, set time and date, done.

  • 906
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    @Silmaj/904

    Never had to.

  • 907
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Silmaj 902
    ________
    I don’t understand your comment
    I have used several Bulk Billing clinics since the 1970irs and still do

    I ALWAYS have an appointment …as is required…or I wouldmn’t be seen
    what are you talking about?

  • 908
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Be sure to ask the next person driving alone in there car with the mask.

    Is this before or after I accuse them of snobbery?

  • 909
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    If your into cricket and want some entertainment reading pommy comments this is a good link.
    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/dec/29/australia-win-fourth-ashes-test-match-report

  • 910
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    re BB appointments just as Zoidlord says in post 905.906
    hr is absolutely right !

  • 911
    Jackol
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    silmaj doesn’t have a point. He/she just wants to attack the resident lefties/defend the resident righties because that’s the natural order of the universe or something.

    Oh, and we should all attack people wearing masks. Or something.

  • 912
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Deblonay,

    Though I doubt it’s either silmaj or sean’s point, some clinics don’t take appointments on weekends. I had to wait an hour and a half when I went on a Sunday. Not that it mattered, as it was non-urgent and I was new to the clinic so had to fill in forms anyway.

  • 913
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    Jackol,

    Quite.

  • 914
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    @cnnbrk: More than 1.1 million people enrolled in Obamacare between October 1 and December 24, government says. http://t.co/o06IqZIJRp

  • 915
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    silmaj

    Sure i will grant Sean that waiting in a busy medical clinic isn’t much fun.

  • 916
    sustainable future
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    Those paying for private health insurance are often on an income where they avoid an extra medicare levy payment if they have private health insurance. They often get a better service by having private insurance (but not always), and I can’t see why they should get 30% subsidies on top of this. My wife and I choose to remain in the public system (and pay the extra levy and significantly more tax as a result – I was raised being told “Pay your taxes and be proud – they are the glue that holds this country together”), because we have lived in the US and don’t want to support a shift to their health insurance system – which is massively expensive for much poorer service for most. we find our system to be excellent and without the charges the privately insured get hit with.

    If you understand economics 101 you’d understand all paying a levy does is allow insurers to charge more – something dutton just allowed them to do at about three times more than the CPI rate. Labor held premiums down, but the libs raised them without question – which leads to the question (hopefully to be asked of dullard dutton in parliament) “How much did the private health insurance lobby donate to the liberal party, IPA, and other groups funneling funds and other support to the libs?”

    the other thing about the privately insured is they are more likely to use services (they’re paying for them) – I am sure the sports medicine/spas industry love them, as well as elective surgery surgeons – drawing on the public purse and taking resources from those who need it more. I know from conversations with friends and doctors that privately insured patients typically get a lot more referrals to specialists,allied health (physio, etc), etc for elective/minor issues.

    I also know well-paid people who are getting mickey mouse private insurance to avoid the extra medicare levy but then going as public patients to get equivalent services without the added charges hospitals charge the privately insured – for example, as genuine public patients we paid only a few dollars for a nappy cleaning service when we had our kids at a public hospital – but friends at the same hospital at around the same time paid $100s in fees as private patients that were below the excess of their fund. After that, other friends who have private insurance declared they were public when they went there – no body checks. I have heard this is common – with some nurses in public hospitals advising those being admitted to tick the ‘no private health insurance’ boxes to avoid costs.

    The private health insurance is upper middle class welfare that makes no economic sense unless the government keep premium rises to CPI or lower (and one way to do that is to not sell medicare private, but rather use it to keep the other funds competitive – same could be done with a nation-owned/commonwealth bank or a government telecommunications/NBN system – or how about a commonwealth power distribution/retail corporation to keep the market honest?)

  • 917
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Ocean Protector still at Singapore, last contact 8hrs ago.

  • 918
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Goodnight

  • 919
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    907
    My point is not about the political issue. It is about the fact that some people for different reasons choose to look after their health in a way of their choosing. Calling them a snob for what they believe is fine but there are others who go to a more extreme extent to look after themselves. What should they be called.

  • 920
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    Sean was called a snob for saying that medical clinic rooms were full of the smelly masses.

  • 921
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    @MB/920

    Exactly.

    Silmaj,

    You should really read what Sean says before making assumptions.

  • 922
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    920
    As I said earlier his wording is poor. However my grandparents use to avoid the same situation. I will never put them in the snob category, perhaps just overly cautious as many are.

  • 923
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:25 am | Permalink

    You should really read what Sean says before making assumptions.

    I don’t think anyone “should really read what Sean says”. Except for amusement value.

    But I agree that leaping in to defend Sean over what were clearly very silly (and probably deliberately provocative) comments is not generally a good plan.

  • 924
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    As I said earlier his wording is poor.

    Yes, I saw your attempt to “reinterpret” Sean Tisme for us.

    What a stupid concept.

    He clearly says whatever he feels like. He meant to say the silly and snobbish things that he said. Whether he had any intention of contributing to a debate is open to question – I just assume he wanted to provoke us as per usual.

  • 925
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    have decided most comments on PB are redundant perhaps borish – quips, asides, insults, anecdotes, one lines, one worders, small stories, vignettes, recipes, tips, tv schedules, cricket scores, inventive, rants, grammatical correction, jokes – 100 of these to one such as ‘sustainable futures’ last

  • 926
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    924
    I interpret what I read and that is it. Poetic license is what others use.

  • 927
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:37 am | Permalink

    Some of the largest metropolitan suburbs that were not home to any same-sex couples included Donvale with 2879 opposite-sex couples overall, Hallam (2244 couples) and Chirnside Park (2218), while regional population centres such as Benalla (2220) and Ararat (1649) were also gay and lesbian-free zones.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/a-new-kind-of-neighbourly-love-in-airport-west-20131228-300tj.html#ixzz2os2nhh68

    Therein lies the problem with these statistics. I can assure you there are at least two gay couples in Chirnside Park

  • 928
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:40 am | Permalink

    1.3 million will loose unemployment benifits by 2014:

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/12/28/_1_3_million_americans_lose_long_term_unemployment_benefits_as_congress.html

    This is what Abbott is doing, especially to the disabled, by moving them off DSP onto Newstart, where jobs don’t exist.

  • 929
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    Zoid
    Shouldn’t you rephrase that to 1.3 million Americans.

  • 930
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:47 am | Permalink

    927

    Were they there for the 2011 census?

  • 931
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    @silmaj/928

    No, because the link is American.

    We don’t have a congress also.

  • 932
    sustainable future
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    geoffrey – I appreciate what you’re saying, but I typically get about 100 grammatical and spelling mistakes, quips, asides, insults and ‘jokes’ into a single post/rant – particularly if I make the mistake of responding to trolls such as sean or turkey.

    I agree the quality of ‘debate’ at night has been particularly poor of late – it is generally better during the day at present. Sean and turkey are the main culprits with endless carping, bolt-mimicry and low calibre abuse e.g. ‘leftard’ or even ‘leftist’ (& just for the records chaps, I am very proudly a ‘leftist’ (i.e. progressive/social democrat/ communitarian/ humanist/ environmentalist), so it sort of doesn’t work as a term of abuse). At least compact crank seems to have got a life. I should as well. goodnight.

  • 933
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 12:55 am | Permalink

    TtFatB,

    I believe so. One of the couples weren’t living together at the time. Though I am noting rather odd things with the info-graphic, e.g. the Airport West couple in the article, but it says there are no SSC in Airport West. It also says there are no male-male couples in another suburb despite a family friend living with his partner there for longer than I’ve been alive. Not that you can really expect these things to be particularly accurate, especially if the percentages can be radically altered if even a single couple is overseas, or wish not to declare. I mean, it’s interesting, nonetheless.

  • 934
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 1:04 am | Permalink

    Ms Campbell and Ms Jemison moved to the suburb shortly after that data was collected, joining its 1562 opposite-sex couples.

    I get an fail grade for comprehension it seems.

  • 935
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 1:08 am | Permalink

    931
    Just trying to grab the comparison of your post. The post refers to Americans unemployment benefits lapsing if congress doesn’t extend it. 1.3 million Americans and a possible revue of the 800,000 people who currently are on a disability of some description in Australia is not similar at all.

  • 936
    Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    Mex,

    Sure i will grant Sean that waiting in a busy medical clinic isn’t much fun.

    He would have a great time in my doctor’s waiting room.

    He could go into the corner with the other kids, play with the blocks, and look at the pictures in the Peppa Pig books.

  • 937
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 1:38 am | Permalink

    @silmaj/935

    Worse, those on DSP would loose upto $500 ($250 each fortnight) a month by forcing many on DSP to goto Newstart, when Abbott is suppose to look for work.

    $751 a fortnight DSP vs $501 a fortnight Newstart.

    What possible revenue?

  • 938
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 1:51 am | Permalink

    937
    Despite you not identifying the comparison I would say that a benefit being removed in America does not compare with a possible review and possible change to DSP in Aus.

  • 939
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 2:01 am | Permalink

    @Silmaj/938

    That’s infact what Kevin Andrews is doing.

    You’re own ignorance is not a surprise.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-23/government-defends-plans-to-alter-disability-support-pension/5171914

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/23/coalition-disability-pension-overhaul-may-create-two-tiered-system

    “Kevin Andrews has refused to rule anything in or out but has signalled that mentally ill people could be case-managed and the pensions of people under 40 could be reviewed in his overhaul of the Disability Service Pension (DSP).”

  • 940
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 2:17 am | Permalink

    Oh dear. Things are getting smelly in Libland, and Sheehan comes out with a leadershit unicorn.

    Tony Burke as next Labor PM.

    A suggestion Mr Sheehan, concentrate on who will succeed Abbott as PM in the next few months, and you may at the same time have successfully prognosticated as to who will be the next Liberal Leader of the Opposition.

  • 941
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 2:22 am | Permalink

    fulvio

    Things are getting smelly in Libland, and Sheehan comes out with a leadershit unicorn.

    Our “Press” are little more than RW Touts.

  • 942
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 2:24 am | Permalink

    @FS/940

    So they can’t even get the party right.

  • 943
    Otiose
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 5:00 am | Permalink

    Update 30/12 Nett_NEWS http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

  • 944
    BK
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Medicine seems to suffer from a sort of reverse Moore’s Law when it comes to cost.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/healthcare-why-tony-abbott-wants-to-charge-a-fee-for-visiting-bulkbilling-doctors-20131229-301nv.html
    Gareth Hutchens asks if this is the end of Medicare.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-considers-end-to-free-gp-visits-20131229-301su.html
    It will be interesting to see how this business model works in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/costco-gets-another-110-million-from-us-parent-for-australian-expansion-20131229-301ll.html
    What clowns!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/teenager-clocked-at-205kmh-in-sydney-20131229-301nr.html
    Such a nice sport!
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/anderson-silva-breaks-leg-in-horrific-ufc-168-injury-against-chris-weidman-20131229-301ku.html
    Paul Sheehan shows his colours here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-burke-likely-to-be-next-labor-pm-20131229-301nd.html
    Alan Moir sums up our China policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html

  • 945
    BK
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free -

    Why superheroes wear their underwear on the outside.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/12/29/video-mid-day-distraction-superheroes-wear-underwear-outside/
    Corporations have religions too.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/12/28/bonus-cartoon-day-corporations-religion/
    A dispenser of justice Texas style in the frame himself.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2013/12/texas-judge-arrested-dragging-girlfriend
    The scandal that is the US minimum wage.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/12/29/1257039/-Millions-of-minimum-wage-workers-are-getting-a-raise-no-thanks-to-Congress
    6 year old drumming prodigy.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017167092

  • 946
    don
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Thanks BK!

    Love the six year old drummer. The only thing missing is the tattoos!

    Wait for the drum solo two thirds the way in.

  • 947
    Socrates
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Morning all, and thanks BK. The attack on medicare is not subtle. Surely Labor will make a united fight against it? Abbott has no mandate for this, and Dhorten must be strong defending it.

    A good article here on the nature of political bullies, and their undesirability in office.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/29/opinion/sunday/the-elected-bullies.html?_r=0

    Sadly, examples exist in both sides of Australian politics too. I just as much wish the Labor ones were removed as the Liberal ones. They give the side a bad name.

    Have a good day all.

  • 948
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    Terry Barnes has a solution to his own problem. The added admin costs for all this is beyond humour.

    Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 2m
    States should charge a matching co-payment to stop patients going to emergency hospital depts to avoid GP fee says Terry Barnes.

  • 949
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    Crikey took a long time to wake up today.

  • 950
    BK
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    Clive Palmer issues a Motoring Party/PUP agreement with hidden redaction. Not a good look, Clive!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-30/clive-palmer-releases-palmer-united-motoring-party-mou/5178026

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