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Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

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  • 101
    Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    dave
    yep.

  • 102
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    ruawake@98

    Do people on “responsible incomes” require Government assistance? It seems that people who object to means testing are those with the means to be tested.

    A legacy of howard.

    Prior to him both sides of politics broadly agreed that only the genuine needy would receive welfare, with the exemption of child endowment which was pretty modest.

    Universal access to medical cover was/ is outside general welfare as is access to a good education irrespective of economic background.

    howard did it because the money was there and his media went along with it with few exceptions such as Gittens and a few others.

  • 103
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

    @Leroy_Lynch: The bureau issues a cyclone warning for coastal areas of WA, from Kuri Bay to Broome and south to De Grey. http://t.co/6UhNI3VfWh

  • 104
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    @Dave/92

    So what about “Welfare” reforms then Mr Libs?

  • 105
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

    Z – not sure what point you are making ?

    More Info.

  • 106
    imacca
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    We are currently in a wage bubble and with increasing unemployment it just proves that it is unsustainable.

    And your basis for making this statement is??

    Or are you just letting your inner moron out to play…..again??

  • 107
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    Cyclone Christine is forecast to smash directly into Pannawonica.
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=709118952455863&set=a.244327805601649.66916.238884916145938&type=1&theater

  • 108
    Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    Sigh. Wish I was in a wage bubble.

  • 109
    Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    C

    I wish the Pannawonicans all the best.

  • 110
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

    “@abcgrandstand: BREAKING: Wild Oats has crossed the #SydneytoHobart finish-line to win a record-equalling 7th consecutive line honours. #RSHYR”

  • 111
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    Labor does not ‘hate’ people on high incomes. If someone has done well through working hard, working smart or plain good luck, that’s great. May they and their families enjoy the fruits of their efforts. Having done so well, they don’t need subsidies or handouts. And, like those on more modest incomes in the PAYE system, they are required to make a fair contribution to creating and maintaining the stable, peaceful space (Australia) where they have done so well.

    Don’t imagine we’ll be hearing any politician, certainly not on the conservative side, saying anything like “Ask not what your country can do for you…” in this current Age of Entitlement for the elite (the real elite, those who control the wealth).

  • 112
    imacca
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    Sigh. Wish I was in a wage bubble.

    So do I, but if i was i’m sure some prick like ST would come along and pop it.

    Funny how supposed “business” people consider that “market” forces are good except when applied to the labour market?

    OK, i will concede they generally consider that “market” forces are a good thing in calculating a senior execs remuneration. :)

  • 113
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    My New Year wish: that people on blogs and Twitter who post articles more than 24 hrs old (i.e. not currently “new”) would provide a date.

  • 114
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    Lizzie

    Its not so much reacting but more the enjoyment of being part of an argument, sometimes i say things to see if its a sound idea or if its an unworkable one.

  • 115
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    Do the people who do commentary on live sport have a clue what they’re talking about?

    Mostly not, I think.

    The first boat crosses the line and they’re going on about the whole crew hitting the Hobart pubs and bars tonight.

    At least half the crew if not more on the leading boats are paid professional yacht racers.

    They’ll be more interested in seeing if they can get a flight out of Hobart tonight on their way home.

  • 116
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    @Dave/105

    Search Kevin Andrews, and you will get most of the reports on what they are doing.

  • 117
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    Ctar

    Yes. I do note the sailing journalist said those not flying out will party on.

    Easy to miss the note of reality amongst the amatuars talking up the drinking culture.

  • 118
    rossmcg
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    A page or so back AussieAchmed explained why he was a labor man. That resonated with me. I first voted in the 1972 Federal election and I can say that since then I have never seen a coalition government, federal or state, who didn’t have reducing workers wages and conditions on its agenda.
    A few of them tried to hide it, but as people like to say these days, it’s in their DNA.
    I was in a workplace where we were negiti

  • 119
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    mexican

    Understand. :)

  • 120
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

    Search Kevin Andrews, and you will get most of the reports on what they are doing.

    ?

    You are the one trying to make a point – whatever that is.

    Search Google yourself if you need help.

  • 121
    rossmcg
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

    …. Bloody ipad, we were negotiation new agreement under the shadow of workchoices and the effect on a unionised used but not militant workforce was to turn them from being largely happy productive people to a surly bunch given to standing around talking. The management saw what was happening and came up with a deal fairly quickly.
    You can only push people so far before it starts to hurt your business.

  • 122
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

    @dave/120

    Yeah, and?

    I was asking if other things are on hold, or just the libs being selective.

  • 123
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

    Do the people who do commentary on live sport have a clue what they’re talking about?

    Are you seriously asking this having listened to the commentary associated with three cricket Test matches?

  • 124
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

    I was asking if other things are on hold, or just the libs being selective.

    So why do you ask me ?

  • 125
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:33 pm | Permalink

    @Dave/124

    Well, it was you’re post.

  • 126
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

    The channel nine cricket commendatory team are good at claiming something like bowler A always bowls at 150+ and bowler B bowls at 140+ yet if you watch they only occasionally bowl at that speed.

    The other clanger they make is too claim that 95k will turn up to the first day of the boxing test yet the record is just over 90k

    The next worst sports coverage is the Tennis, at this time every year we will get stories that Tomic is a world beater and a threat to the top guys who will be asked in some interview in which they will smile and say something like yes he is good and the journo will use that too justify any hype.

    Our media do try very hard, not sure who is worst, the sport or Canberra press gallery.

  • 127
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord@125

    @Dave/124

    Well, it was you’re post.

    Try going back to the start, I still don’t see the point of any of your posts -

    dave@102

    ruawake@98

    Do people on “responsible incomes” require Government assistance? It seems that people who object to means testing are those with the means to be tested.

    A legacy of howard.

    Prior to him both sides of politics broadly agreed that only the genuine needy would receive welfare, with the exemption of child endowment which was pretty modest.

    Universal access to medical cover was/ is outside general welfare as is access to a good education irrespective of economic background.

    howard did it because the money was there and his media went along with it with few exceptions such as Gittens and a few others.

  • 128
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

    At least half the crew if not more on the leading boats are paid professional yacht racers.

    They’ll be more interested in seeing if they can get a flight out of Hobart tonight on their way home.
    ================================

    From experience they’ll be sailing the boat back to Sydney tomorrow, depending on the weather, not flying back

  • 129
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    @dave/127

    Yeah, I see stuff that would include Welfare, thus the questions about, the specifics, which wasn’t provided at you’re post @ 92.

  • 130
    rossmcg
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    AA

    Times have changed. I was at a mate’s wedding in the early 80s and there was a guy there who had just sailed on an Alan bond boat to Hobart and would later go on to be crew on Australia 11. He delighted in telling us what a great time he had in Hobart for New year. his very pregnant wife sitting next to him was not amused.

  • 131
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

    mexicanb:

    I spent a lot of today in the car driving family around, so could listen to the ABC commentary. I had always thought the Ch9 commentary was worse than the ABC’s, but today the ABC’s was so bad that I would’ve downloaded the Ch9 cricket app so I could watch on my phone if I weren’t driving in patchy coverage.

  • 132
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

    ‘fess

    Are you seriously asking this

    I should have marked that bit ‘/rhetorical’.

  • 133
    mari
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/business/international/china-in-push-to-rein-in-lending-practices.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

    This to me is scary

  • 134
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord@129

    @dave/127

    Yeah, I see stuff that would include Welfare, thus the questions about, the specifics, which wasn’t provided at you’re post @ 92.

    Because it was a broad answer. Howard broadened “welfare” specifically middle class welfare – not labor.

    Before howard, the needy got help, not the rich.

    Labor tried to wind back middle class welfare but abbott fought tooth and nail on it. Remember his cries of ‘class warfare’ every time Labor tried ?

  • 135
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

    mari

    The even bigger problem, however, appears to come from the rise of a shadow banking system that has allowed a number of companies and individuals, often with political connections, to borrow from state-controlled banks at low interest rates and relend the money at much higher rates to private businesses desperate for credit at almost any price.

    Particularly this pyramid scheme.

  • 136
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

    @dave/134

    Yes, who could forget.

  • 137
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

    dave

    Remember his cries of ‘class warfare’ every time Labor tried ?

    And now we see with superannuation the start of the opposite.

  • 138
    Roxanna
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    83
    Darn
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 6:21 pm | PERMALINK
    Has William forbidden any commentary on the cricket or is there just nobody here who’s interested in it?

    He was probably hoping someone would talk about the polls at the top of the page.

  • 139
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    He was probably hoping someone would talk about the polls at the top of the page.

    Talking about quarterly polls, do they actually mean anything? They have a starting point and an ending point and report the average.

    Admittedly it is the only way to get a large sample of State voting intention, but why not just release this stuff with regular polling (despite the small sample) like Nielsen.

  • 140
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    ‘Class warfare’ means suggesting that those who are well off (say, earning more than about 50% over the median wage/salary) don’t need handouts from the government. And it’s really fighting words if you suggest that tax breaks not available to people in the PAYE system (other than for legitimate costs incurred in earning income) be wound back or withdrawn.

  • 141
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    CTar1@137

    dave


    Remember his cries of ‘class warfare’ every time Labor tried ?


    And now we see with superannuation the start of the opposite.

    and PPL. Thats the one that has his balls in an electoral vice.

    Very generous assistance to wealth families. Screw workers, their jobs, their working conditions, their super, their medicare etc etc.

    But he is not PM for life. Newspoll will work its magic against him just as it did against Labor.

  • 142
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    He was probably hoping someone would talk about the polls at the top of the page.

    I didn’t see William make a comment on cricket discussion?

    If I’m the first to comment on a post I try to make a comment on what’s been written first up, as I did on this one.

  • 143
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    ‘Class warfare’ means....

    I always took it as howard saying…”Its a sin for you to envy the fruits of my greed”.

    But the electorate sucked it all up.

  • 144
    BK
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    rua
    On the average every Australian has about one testicle and one ovary.
    Useful information?

  • 145
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

    Yes the class warfare line which Pyne was unable to use during the recent Gonski debate.

  • 146
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    Labor tried to wind back middle class welfare but abbott fought tooth and nail on it. Remember his cries of ‘class warfare’ every time Labor tried ?
    ==========================================

    When the wealthy are asked to pay or to even lose a benefit, it’s called class warfare.

    When the low paid, pensioners and poor are told they will lose benefits, have lower wages or have welfare cut imposed its described as an economic benefit to Nation.

    In the USA they issue food stamps. This year there was a cut to the food stamp program. The private company that manages the scheme for government made a $250 billion profit. They made a greater profit than the amount that was cut

  • 147
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    dave

    and PPL

    This one is such a ‘dog’ when compared with NDIS I think even Abbot will have to ‘rethink’ it (or tell the Commission of Audit to sink it for him).

  • 148
    pedant
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    Steve777 @ 140: And if you really want to start WWIII, bring up the issue of the discretionary trusts so loved by the farmers as a tax avoidance measure.

    Nobody does the entitlement mentality like the farmers. I’m so sick of their perpetual bellyaching that I make a point of buying imported produced whenever I can.

  • 149
    dave
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    pedant@148

    Steve777 @ 140: And if you really want to start WWIII, bring up the issue of the discretionary trusts so loved by the farmers as a tax avoidance measure.

    Nobody does the entitlement mentality like the farmers. I’m so sick of their perpetual bellyaching that I make a point of buying imported produced whenever I can.

    Good points. As is negative gearing.

    I think it a french expression – “Taxation is the art of plucking the goose with a minimum of hissing and snapping.”

    I laugh every time I hear GST praised as so called “efficient tax” – its efficient because those fleeced have bugger all means of fighting back.

    Most taxes can be made efficient if there is a will. eg no deductions or a alternative minimum tax, but its really about motivation not to upset the wealthy.

    Which is one of the reasons our US friends appear – at least from here to have lost their way.

    Too big to fail. Too big to jail etc.

    Everyone else – bend over.

  • 150
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    I’m so sick of their perpetual bellyaching that I make a point of buying imported produced whenever I can.

    SPC a case study of handout mentality. They have been going around telling farmers to rip up their orchards, don’t bother we will not buy from you.

    Then this subsidiary of Coca Cola-Amatil puts out its hand for $25 million of Gov funds, must think they are Cadbury.

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