tip off

Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

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  • 901
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    BTW, I am not a tea drinker, chamomile or any other variety.

    Well, that certainly explains a lot.

    If you don’t drink tea, then I suggest cold showers. There must be something that will rid you of your obsession with me and your inability to deal maturely with Rudd criticism. I don’t know why it’s so hard for you. No other PBers appear to have your peculiar hangups about Kevvie.

  • 902
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    No other PBers appear to have your peculiar hangups about Kevvie.

    Except Thomas Paine!

    This is so funny!!!

  • 903
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    Off to bed for me.

    I will try to get some sleep and hope my phone and internet are restored by morning.

    Goodnight all.

  • 904
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 12:55 am | Permalink

    Goodnight all, dont let the Rednecks bite

  • 905
    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    Re Myki a complete disaster for torists and visiors
    ________________
    can you imagine a system where one can’t board a tram and buy a single trip ticket…visitors ..money in hand stand bewildered and some have been ordered off with threats of fines by the officious and often violent ticket inspectors

    I have never found another city in the world with such madness…one must buy a Myki …somewhere..the put money into it…then use it (how much money ????) and when you go you have no way of getting the unused cash back

    In S’Pore there are mmachines on stations that do just that as you leave ,,,but not in Melbourne…in Paris one can buy a small booklet of single trip metro tickets…but not in Melb

  • 906
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 1:03 am | Permalink

    You know it’s been one of those evenings when Paine shows up. Glad I’ve missed most of it.

  • 907
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    And, on Myki: that would have to be one of my biggest dislikes about visiting Melbourne. They’re just really horrible to use in every way.

  • 908
    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 1:31 am | Permalink

    Melb it’s 35deg at mid-night …one of the hoittest nights ever,,,abd we have three more days
    of extreme heatr to go before even a cool change WOW
    what will tomorrow bring….43-44deg if we are lucky,,,if not something even worse…it’s feel furnace like weather

    Tony tell us it’s not Global warming again…but it’s like Black Saturday and that was in Feb…ths is only mid-Jan

  • 909
    imacca
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 2:54 am | Permalink

    And, on Myki: that would have to be one of my biggest dislikes about visiting Melbourne. They’re just really horrible to use in every way.

    I find this Myki thing curious. Here in Perth we have Smartrider cards, and for me, those are simple and have always worked well.

    Where does Myki fail??

  • 910
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 4:28 am | Permalink

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html

    My 2014 Tasmanian State Election guide. Includes candidate list with links to websites for as many as I could find.

  • 911
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 5:46 am | Permalink

    I find this Myki thing curious. Here in Perth we have Smartrider cards, and for me, those are simple and have always worked well.

    Where does Myki fail??

    Yeah, the Metrocard here in Adelaide works pretty well too. Have had no problem with scanning or recharging. Minor problem when my original one was stolen from my wallet and I wanted to cancel it and transfer the credit to a new card but, other than that, it’s smooth sailing.

    The problem I had with the Myki was that it was hard to get the scanners to read the thing and recharging was a bit of a pain. While I prefer cards to tickets, even if I am just in town for a short time, I also think the policy of abolishing tickets was a bit short sighted and disadvantageous to visitors to the city, especially considering Melbourne tries to pride itself on how welcoming it is to visitors.

  • 912
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 5:49 am | Permalink

    Also, people in Adelaide, Melbourne, Canberra and the regions around those cities, take care of yourselves today. Stay out of the sun and well hydrated and make sure any pets are okay.

    We’re bracing for a horrible two days here in Adelaide. 45 forecast for today, 46 for tomorrow. I can’t even imagine what the northern towns are going to be like!

    I reckon we’re just a few years away from a 50 degree day in Adelaide :-(

  • 913
    Otiose
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 6:16 am | Permalink

    06:16:00 15/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy NB Pique of the Week

  • 914
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 6:37 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Is O’Farrell paying the piper?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ofarrell-blasted-for-stupid-comments-20140114-30t4h.html
    Jonathon Green makes good with his promise of more on Alex Somlyay and his “researcher” wife.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/afp-evaluates-payments-to-alex-somlyays-wife-20140114-30t4g.html
    The APH website will telecast this Senate Inquiry this afternoon. Could be fun.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/commission-of-audit-chairman-sought-delay-of-senate-hearing-20140114-30t43.html
    And further down the hole goes Abbott and Morriscum, taking the navy with them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/navy-sailors-now-on-war-footing-to-turn-back-boats-20140114-30t47.html
    Peter Martin on the rapid decline of Australia Post. It underlines the need for an effective NBN.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/entering-the-postaustralia-post-era-20140114-30t12.html
    Who should replace Virginia Trioli at ABC24. Surely not Annabel Crabb!
    http://www.theguardian.com/culture/australia-culture-blog/2014/jan/14/virginia-trioli-news-24-replacement

  • 915
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    Section 2 . . .

    Could be more popcorn required when the Victorian Parliament resumes next month.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/mp-geoff-shaw-expects-more-chaos-in-parliament-20140114-30t4c.html
    More on Pyne’s curriculum crusaders.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-wrong-men-behind-curriculum-review-20140113-30qmc.html
    One of them, Donnelly, hits back.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/14/school-curriculum-review-conservative-panellist-hits-back-at-critics
    David Rowe at the Australian Open.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Alan Moir rolls out Popeye the Nation Builder.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/01/14/5076055/shpmoirjan15-20140114164809847211-600×400.jpg
    David Pope sums up the independence of the Commissioners of Audit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

  • 916
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free

    Some cartons on the Repugs’ agenda for 2014 in Congress.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/14/cartoons-day-gop-2014-congressional-agenda/
    And some more on Chris Christie’s problems.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/13/cartoons-day-christies-bridgegate-blooms/
    The clowns on FoxNews still defend Christie by blaming feminism.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/oreilly-and-hume-double-down-remarks
    Megan Kelly of FoxNews really cops it after her assertion that Jesus and Santa Claus are white.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017169413
    Only in America!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/14/chad-oulson-movie-text_n_4594450.html

  • 917
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    BK
    Thank you, as always. I trust that all goes well down your way today.

  • 918
    Martin B
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    Oh and Sean, Napthime in Victoria has failed to heed the lessons of the 2010 Vic election, and seems determined to make the same mistakes that Brumby did.
    PT lost the election for Brumby
    PT will lose the election for Napthime

    Since the Libs
    a) didn’t expect to win the 2010 election, and
    b) don’t really care about PT anyway
    it’s not surprising they had no plans to fix the problem.

  • 919
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Morning all, and thanks BK.

    Alex Somlyay says he did nothing wrong, employing his wife “as a researcher working from home.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-14/former-mp-alex-somlyay-defends-employing-wife-as-researcher/5199544

    If it was not wrong, why did he hide it by recording it under her maiden name? Apart from coalition policy against employing family members, why did no other electoral office staff ever see the “research”?

    I sincerely hope someone makes a complaint and it is investigated. Peter Slipper might like to.

  • 920
    Martin B
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    So, I’ve had a few weeks break. Tell me, what are the latest developments in the fascinating current story of Rudd/Gillard?

  • 921
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    Navy personnel carrying out border protection were quietly stripped of some workplace safety protections and obligations last month in an apparent preparation for dangerous operations such as turning back boats.

    The Chief of the Defence Force, General David Hurley, used his powers under workplace safety laws shortly before Christmas to exempt Navy sailors from their obligation to take ''reasonable care'' to ensure their own safety and that of other sailors and asylum-seekers.
    The change aims to give sailors legal protection, meaning they would ''not face individual criminal sanctions under the Act for giving effect to Government policy'', an explanatory statement issued by General Hurley states.
    General Hurley acted in consultation with Employment Minister Eric Abetz to make the change, which effectively puts the sailors on a similar footing to military personnel fighting in battle.

    . . .

    Also on Tuesday, refugee advocates said about 50 asylum seekers had gone on hunger strikes on Christmas Island and about six had sewn their lips together.

    Activist Pamela Curr said the protests were largely over the separation of families in detention - a practice the government has denied is happening. A spokeswoman for Mr Morrison refused to comment, saying to do so could ''provide an incentive for such behaviour''.

    A leading industrial law expert, Professor Ron McCallum of the University of Sydney, blasted the workplace change, saying it seemed squarely aimed at carrying out the government's turnback policy.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/navy-sailors-now-on-war-footing-to-turn-back-boats-20140114-30t47.html#ixzz2qPIwf2bu

  • 922
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    Morning bludgers

    30 degrees overnight here in Melbourne. Expected top 41. Adelaide expecting 45! Take care BK and other SA bludgers.
    Btw we had lightening and thunder that caused outbreaks of fire. Sigh………..

  • 923
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    Tell me, what are the latest developments in the fascinating current story of Rudd/Gillard?

    No news and it’s old hat and past.

    Back in your dog kennel.

  • 924
    sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    Your wish has not fallen on deaf ears apparently

    Fraud allegations levelled against a recently retired Liberal Party MP will be evaluated by the Australian Federal Police.

    A package of classified documents has been mailed to the AFP containing details of tens of thousands of dollars worth of allegedly fraudulent taxpayer-funded payments made to the wife of Alex Somlyay, a senior MP who retired at the September election after 23 years in Federal Parliament.

    Mr Somlyay is still refusing to respond to Fairfax Media about the allegations it broke, saying on Tuesday: "I don't want to talk to you. I'm not talking to you. I'm seeking legal representation."

    Asked about Mr Somlyay's alleged conduct, a federal police spokeswoman said: "The AFP will evaluate all available information to determine whether a potential Commonwealth criminal offence has been committed."

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alex-somlyay-fraud-claim-papers-sent-to-federal-police-20140114-30t4a.html

  • 925
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    BK linked latest report on Somylay mattet at post 915

  • 926
    poroti
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    Martin B

    Tell me, what are the latest developments in the fascinating current story of Rudd/Gillard?

    Fairly quiet apart from occasional sightings of Lieutenant Hiroo Onoda

  • 927
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    Oops lightning

  • 928
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    The change aims to give sailors legal protection, meaning they would ''not face individual criminal sanctions under the Act for giving effect to Government policy'', an explanatory statement issued by General Hurley states.

    This is interesting. I can’t recall Rudd giving “pink batt companies” similar leagal protection.

  • 929
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    But where the review is also clearly not being entirely transparent is in the fact that independent schools are not beholden to teach the Australian Curriculum at all. This is the undisturbed sleeper in any government-instigated curriculum review or reform. The Australian curriculum is essentially irrelevant to independent schools.

    . . .

    The bandying about of terms such as "postmodern theory", "relativism", "cultural Left", "essential knowledge", "orthodoxy", "back to basics", "lifting the bar", "impenetrable jargon" and "partisan bias" are mischievous at best. They are weasel words that, to quote Macbeth, "signify nothing".

    The review process will actually destabilise schools and cause teachers to be frustrated that the curriculum they thought they were expected to teach and plan for, let alone prepare material for implementation, is likely to be trashed. Why should teachers, especially in state schools, now have to put on hold course materials they have developed while they wait to see if they are acceptable?

    To develop a curriculum takes years. The new Australian curriculum has taken upwards of three years to get to the point of full national implementation. A review that is to provide recommendations to Pyne in less than six months is clearly defined by haste and expediency. It is unnecessary and unwelcome.

    http://m.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/plenty-to-opine-about-in-the-federal-governments-national-curriculum-review/story-fnihsr9v-1226801809977

  • 930
    Martin B
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    Hah!! @926

  • 931
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    ‏@NickMGreen 9m
    The Fed Gov may give subsidies to companies so long as it aids their crusade against organised labour. Seriously. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/joe-hockey-sets-hard-line-on-handouts/story-fn59nsif-1226801931267#

  • 932
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    Interesting post by ru last night. Re whether the Jenny mentioned in the Ashby texts is none other than Mrs Somylay. Now that would set a cat amongst the pigeons!

  • 933
    poroti
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    This doesn’t look too good for Victoria

    Lightning strikes have started more than 250 new fires across Victoria, as the state faces another day of extreme weather conditions.

    Three emergency warnings were issued on Tuesday as the state sweltered through temperatures of up to 46C.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/lightning-sparks-256-new-vic-bushfires-20140115-30tnm.html

  • 934
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    Poroti

    It is only Wednesday. The heatwave is expected to continue until Saturday. I am not a happy camper. :(

  • 935
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Sprocket, thanks.

    Victoria

    Yes I know. I found the ABC reporting interesting, in that it did not mention those other developments, or question Somlyay’s explanation.

  • 936
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Vic – Out early and lots of fluid seems the answer.

  • 937
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Sprocket

    A package of classified documents has been mailed to the AFP containing details of tens of thousands of dollars worth of allegedly fraudulent taxpayer-funded payments made to the wife of Alex Somlyay, a senior MP who retired at the September election after 23 years in Federal Parliament.

    Wonder who did the mailing. :)

  • 938
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    Some interesting articles on education from The Conversation.
    http://tinyurl.com/lb7bfd6
    http://tinyurl.com/lrr3bcf

  • 939
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    Would be nice if an unexpected cool change showed up

  • 940
    sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    the final word on the new Geography curriculum

    https://twitter.com/vanbadham/status/423195893509009408/photo/1/large

  • 941
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    Martin B

    Tell me, what are the latest developments in the fascinating current story of Rudd/Gillard?

    Are Abbott’s poll numbers THAT low? Sean will probably have an answer when he comes on board for his turn as Liberal apologist. There is so much to apologise for already.

  • 942
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    The authority in charge of the east-west link has not adequately explained the impact the road will have on people's lives both during and after its construction, the government planning panel assessing the project says.
    The Planning Department's hearings into the $6-8 billion project began on Tuesday.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/expert-panel-calls-for-answers-on-eastwest-links-impact-20140114-30std.html#ixzz2qPOm9BRn

  • 943
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    I would like the ABC to repatriate the lovely and intelligent Lisa Millar from Washington for the ABC24 breakfast gig. That’s where they got Michael Rowland from.

  • 944
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    BK

    I read somewhere that Trioli would take over Tony Eastley’s radio spot and he would take hers on ABC24

  • 945
    Martin B
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    I note, btw, that my question above was prompted by seeing R/G being still argued out not 2 pages back. In case anyone’s irony detector has been fried, I too am heartily sick of the subject and in fact I apologise for making even a jocular reference to it.

  • 946
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    vic
    Surely they would not have two blokes on the breakfast program Beside that, Eastley is too boring.

  • 947
    poroti
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    victoria

    That hot for that long is too much.

  • 948
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    Vic

    Would be nice if an unexpected cool change showed up

    Not likely!

    Endure.

  • 949
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    BK

    Good point. It may be Ms Crabb

  • 950
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    Martin B

    Thanks, in fact I had missed the R/G references previously. Your jocular reference is appropriate, and I had only intended to play along with it.

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