tip off

Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

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  • 101
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    The last Nielsen poll on Victoria had Labor 54/46.

  • 102
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Oh OK PUP not standing – lucky for the Greens

    However PUP will be running a candidate in the WA Senate re-run. Whenever that happens.

  • 103
    bemused
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Greensborough Growler@97

    ross,

    Whoever posited that must have been inhaling!

    Nope, just the usual Tisme rubbish. :P

  • 104
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Re: WA Senate result/fresh election

    I must confess to being terribly wrong in my assessment of how the High Court would deal with this.

    I thought they would deal with it with a sense of urgency, and the fact that it is not a matter that requires fine legal distinctions in their role as the Court of Disputed Returns.

    However, they seem to be putting their heels up and taking a very long slow relaxed considered look at it. Comments to the effect that it might not be resolved by June 30 are very troubling.

    To my mind this lack of urgency makes me suspect that they are actually leaning towards declaring one of the original results as the outcome (ie no new election). Or they have decided the horse has bolted and it doesn’t really matter how long they take now …

    Although not having an official set of Senators from WA by June 30 would just be asking for chaos I think, so they really have to have resolved everything by then.

  • 105
    feeney
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    Based on some feedback from party workers, the feeling is encouraging.

    Certainly, the Libs were shocked at Labor swamping the electorate on the weekend.

    Labor is running a typical grass roots campaign with stalls, door knocking, telephone banking, emailing etc.

    The campaign office is QLD ALP Headquarters, and I’m certain there will be a lot of Federal resources into the campaign.

    Just today Griffith voters received an A4 size four-page colour brochure. And that is not cheap!

    Polling and betting agencies seem positive, too.

    We shall see.

  • 106
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Goodbye Napthine….

    In Vic today one of the talk-backs remarked that a major water company is installing “smart-meters”: ,,,this when done for power-meters under Brumby’s stupid minister Bachelpor aroused a similar outcry on radio..and on election eve Batchelor gave a disasterous interview on 3AW which must have costs Labor heaps of votes… areal classic
    of arrogance and incomprehension

    Listening I felt he had sealed Brumby’s fste in one go”’so bad it should be used a perfect training example of what not to say in a campaign
    Now Napthine is caught in the same crossfire,,,and another old horro returned rom thhe grave is the endless crisis on Metro rail

    If one thinks about it… when Kennett lost…by just one seat…he lost seats in East Gippsland and Midura to independents and the seat including Ararat.Maryborough held by Bolte’s nephew ,Stephen Elder..Lib royalty!!,,,to Labor

    This all helped bring him down…and all were seats where Kennett closed railway servicesa (Neo-Liberals like Thatcher and Kennett despise trains!!..why ?)

    I think the troubles of Metro helped Labor to lose those 4 Frankston line seats…all of which may go back to Labor because of the railway issues…really bad again in the heatwave conditions
    I have son who said his workmates some of whom whom on that line are really crapped off again…watch out Napthine

    My view is that only a miracle could save him…and Abbott is no help either

  • 107
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    GG

    Apparently Mary Woolridge will be heading to the seat of Kew although it would make more sense to place Woolridge into Bulleen and move Guy to Kew.

  • 108
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    I imagine there will be all sorts of conspiracy theories emerge as to why there hasn’t been a court ruling on the WA Senate result.

    But Antony Green says a re-election is the most likely outcome, and that’s good enough for me.

  • 109
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    To lose one seat on a train line is regrettable. To lose every seat on a train line is an electoral disaster.

    As you say, the Libs seem hellbent on duplicating Labor’s efforts of last time.

  • 110
    imacca
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    I imagine there will be all sorts of conspiracy theories emerge as to why there hasn’t been a court ruling on the WA Senate result.

    But Antony Green says a re-election is the most likely outcome, and that’s good enough for me.

    It is annoying that it hasn’t been announced though. :(

    Anyone know how long between an announcement from the Court and the earliest they could hold the election?? I would guess that would also depend on appeals by anyone??

  • 111
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Deblonay

    Neo-Liberals like Thatcher and Kennett despise trains!!..why ?)

    The wa liberals also hated trains! I think it might be that the workers in the past were strongly unionised. So they didn’t so much hate trains as hate workers.

  • 112
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    mb,

    There are others of influence jockeying for their preferred candidates and that isn’t necessarily Wooldridge or Guy.

    Has all the ingredients for a massive explosion.

  • 113
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    I thought they would deal with it with a sense of urgency

    A reasonable expectation I’d have thought, given the Electoral Act states that “the Court of Disputed Returns must make its decision on a petition as quickly as is reasonable in the circumstances”. Though I can’t imagine what recourse might be available should anyone think it’s failing to do so.

  • 114
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Neo-Liberals like Thatcher and Kennett despise trains!!..why ?

    Because railways are owned by the Government, not private enterprise; they are a union stronghold; and they burn less fossil fuel per passenger kilometre.

  • 115
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Frankston is the bellweather Victorian seat. Put Bracks in power in 2002, and effectively keeping Napthine in power in 2013. It was named as the next Victorian property hot spot in The Age at the weekend. Geoff Shaw the local State member holds the balance of power in the Vic Parliament and is the classic shifty LNP shyster doing property deals to benefit his local supporters. The federal LNP MP Bruce Billson is a lightweight but harmless enough. Nice place to live I might add, despite the stereotypes.

  • 116
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Isn’t the High Court, or Court of Disputed Returns going to have a hearing in late January?

  • 117
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    I would guess that would also depend on appeals by anyone

    There is no avenue of appeal re: decisions of the Court of Disputed Returns.

    They just rule on what should happen (and they can rule almost any outcome they see fit for whatever reason they see fit), and it happens. End of.

    Having no appeal, I guess, makes the court want to be very careful, but ultimately they are being called on to do a King Solomon and just tell us what the fairest outcome is.

    Of course they will be considering the cost of a new election and whether, in the grand scheme of things, it is worth it, but still.

    It seems like something that once they have the opinions of all the stakeholders who have petitioned, and have received expert advice on the implications of the various courses of actions, that they could thrash out over a weekend.

    Oh well. We’ll find out … eventually … what they are thinking.

  • 118
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    So no Newspoll tonight I presume?

  • 119
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Re Jackol @79: Rudd/Gillard obviously didn’t tear down the Howard legacy.

    A lost opportunity.

  • 120
    bemused
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    deblonay@106

    Goodbye Napthine….

    In Vic today one of the talk-backs remarked that a major water company is installing “smart-meters”: ,,,this when done for power-meters under Brumby’s stupid minister Bachelpor aroused a similar outcry on radio..and on election eve Batchelor gave a disasterous interview on 3AW which must have costs Labor heaps of votes… areal classic
    of arrogance and incomprehension

    I understand the logic of Smart Meters for electricity where they can assist with demand management to try to reduce peak usage which is very expensive in terms of the infrastructure required for maybe just a couple of days each year.

    But Smart Meters for water?

    The only possible benefit I can see is to save on having them manually read.

    Unless of course they are wanted to enforce really draconian water restrictions. Surely not.

  • 121
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    On the subject of slow judicial processes when on earth are we going to get the Ashby appeal outcome? Justice Rares reached a commendably quick determination so not sure why the appeal court is taking so long.

  • 122
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    To my mind this lack of urgency makes me suspect that they are actually leaning towards declaring one of the original results as the outcome (ie no new election).

    As I said some time ago. I think it’s quite legitimate for the Court to seek to spare us the expense of a new election. I think the most likely outcome is that they’ll uphold the first count and declare Pratt and Wang elected. But no-one really has a clue.

  • 123
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    A winter of discontent in the USA
    _________________
    right across the USA there is a spreading wave of strikes by low-income earners for a rise in the basic wage rate…as low in some places as $7 an hour…in a country where food prices are about the same as here…people working a 50- hour week can earn as little as $350 p w.

    Yhe strikes go along with all sorts of campaigns against fracking and other environmental matters..and some victories for radical candidates in Places like Seattle and New York
    In Chicago teachers won a bitter fight with the Democratic mayor… Millionaire … Abraham Emmanuel…once Obamas’ Chief of Staff but no lover of unionists…many of whom have no gteat love for Obama either …as I learned when by chanceI came across a large demo by teachers in Chicago some momths ago…I joined them and later had a drink with a few I had spoken too…and found them interesting active teacher unionists…and aware of a host of issues
    They don’t expect much from Obama in whom have little confidance
    The growing crisis over the gulf between rich and poor is a major issue in the USA and much talked about…as is the collapse of the US Empire

  • 124
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    113

    Only the big and messy stick of judicial sackings is available to speed up the High Court/Court of Disputed Returns.

  • 125
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    The winter of discontent in the USA

    http://socialistworker.org/2013/12/19/a-winter-of-discontent

  • 126
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    imacca:

    The Ashby thing is taking forever. Slow judicial processes are seemingly legendary.

  • 127
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    With most people heading back to work begrudgingly (judges and ABC types excepted) , and only the tennis to distract, I suspect the next few weeks will set the political tone for the first half of 2014. With an interest rate rise highly likely in Feb I suspect these will be challenging times for the LNP.

  • 128
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    psephos,

    Did the votes go missing after the first count?

  • 129
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    127
    An interest rate rise?

  • 130
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    They say justice delayed is justice denied. i say justice delayed is more money for lawyers.
    People point fingers at the US justice system and I know it has its faults but have have look at the speed with which iftbgets its crims before a jury, I can think of a few corporate crooks who have been in court quite quickly whereas in Australia the investigations take years and even then the success rates are low. Bernie madoff was arrested in December 2008 and in jail the following march. Wouldn’t happen here.

  • 131
    imacca
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    The Ashby thing is taking forever.

    That’s another annoying one.

    Only the big and messy stick of judicial sackings is available to speed up the High Court/Court of Disputed Returns.

    Sounding better and better. :)

  • 132
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Silmaj 129 yep … the pundits are guessing March but urging the RBA to go early….

  • 133
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    GG – yes. So the first count, although extremely close, is actually the better of the two. But the Court doesn’t need to follow that logic, it can seat anyone it likes.

  • 134
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    122

    Not holding a new election would look dodgy.

    The first count had errors in the scrutiny, which has been proved by the recount and as such cannot stand up.

    The second count has missing votes and as such cannot stand up.

    Putting the first count of the missing votes in with the second count produces a 1 vote margin with over a thousand missing votes and as such cannot stand up.

    It is just too close for the missing votes not to cause a new election. It will not bankrupt the government. Democracy costs money.

  • 135
    Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Tom,

    Only the big and messy stick of judicial sackings is available to speed up the High Court/Court of Disputed Returns.

    The Rump Returns.

  • 136
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    The falllacy of the so-called “Judeo-Christian heritage ”
    ________________________

    from the Guardian…a writer draws on many sources to show that this term much used now By Pyne.Donnelly et al is a nonsense and has no value in the educational debate

    Indeed a prominent Jewish scholar makes the good point that for most of it 2.000 year the Christian churches have activily shunned and often persecuted Jews…far from seeing them as part of a broad cultural whole

    But the phrase is much loved by conservaties…i

    a great piece

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/australias-judeo-christian-heritage-doesnt-exis

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/australias-judeo-christian-heritage-doesnt-existhe Us today it is popular with anti-islamists writers

  • 137
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    On the subject of the ABC and the judges, whilst I have empathy for their important role in civil society, it irks that the vast bulk of these professionals take off the whole of December and January. Are they some kind of protected species that require two months off each year, while the rest of us make do with a week or two at best?

  • 138
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Psephos,

    Yes, I think I can almost agree with you.

    If the votes were counted and tallied the first time, the recount is to simply correct any counting or procedural issues. Therefore, if the second count is known to have excluded a significant bundle of votes, then it has to be regarded as invalid. So, the first count result should stand in the absence of a more reliable second count.

  • 139
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    132
    Most economists expect either a cut or hold for most of year. There is however one that I know will post a outliers forecast within 30 seconds of economic data. Surely not the same pundit?

  • 140
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Silmaj 139 I’m relying on Stephen Koukoulas who usually is proved right….

  • 141
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    They say justice delayed is justice denied. i say justice delayed is more money for lawyers.

    Yes, I agree with this. But in the case of the WA Senate re-run I suspect it’s more about ensuring i’s get dotted and t’s crossed than a lawyer’s picnic. This has been a monumental stuff up by the AEC and they need to restore confidence in their independence more than anything.

  • 142
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    TTFaB – you’re looking at it very narrowly.

    If you consider only whether there is an “official” result from the 7 September election that can be guaranteed to be 100% accurate, then you are correct.

    However, that’s not the role of elections, and certainly not necessarily the role of Senate elections.

    If it was a fresh election for a House of Reps seat, and particularly where that seat outcome might affect balance of power in the HoR, then the Court would be taking a very different approach I suspect (but then, a fresh election in a single seat is also a vastly lower cost affair).

    The Senate is not where government is formed, and the complexity of the Senate voting system means that a definitive answer is not really something you can guarantee, even where votes are not lost en masse.

    And if the CoDR is more interested in what is the best outcome in the context of the September election, then either of the two possible outcomes from that election would be a better reflection of that election than holding a new election ever could be.

    Our elections and system of government are based on periodic snapshots of public will.

    I imagine that the Court could be more interested in whether the overall balance of the Senate based on the September election is reflected in whatever outcome they choose rather than necessarily whether exactly the right Senators are chosen.

    So it is a more complex question than just “can we guarantee 100% that the voting process has been reflected in the outcome of the count”.

  • 143
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    140
    Don’t put your money on that.

  • 144
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    silmaj 143 I dont intend to …. but consider it the most likely outcome. Dollar at 90c and under pressure, good retail numbers for December … all creating inflationary pressure….

  • 145
    bemused
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    imacca@131


    The Ashby thing is taking forever.


    That’s another annoying one.


    Only the big and messy stick of judicial sackings is available to speed up the High Court/Court of Disputed Returns.


    Sounding better and better.

    What a genius! NOT.
    Sack judges creating vacancies that the Abbott Govt can fill. :mad:

  • 146
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    142

    Not letting missing votes be replaced by new votes is inviting anyone wanting to mess up the election process to steal votes.

    The Senate is usually the more closely balanced that the HoR and the “The Senate is less important because it does not form government or get recounted” attitude is one of the things that caused this in the first place.

    I do not believe that the High Court has shown any inclination to refuse a revote before because the voters my have changed their minds.

  • 147
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Immaca … sacking judges is thankfully not a feature of our political landscape…

  • 148
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    135

    I sincerely doubt that it would get to the judicial sackings stage. I have more confidence in the High Court that that. I was merely pointing out there is an option, because it was said that there was not.

  • 149
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    TTFaB -

    I do not believe that the High Court has shown any inclination to refuse a revote before because the voters my have changed their minds.

    There are very few precedents here – and none directly equivalent – so you can believe what you like. The Court can choose to do pretty much whatever it feels is best, and we have very little guidance on what they are likely to be weighing up and why.

  • 150
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    There was an increase of fixed rate for 2-3 years by about 0.2% prior to Christmas. 5 year rates are also now on the move. ANZ raised their 5 year rate by 0.1% to 5.94% last Friday.

    I’d say rates have definately bottomed out. However, when they start going in the upwards direction is uncertain.

    Although there has been increased activity in the Housing Market in the last quarter of 2013, prices are only now catching up with 2010 levels. So, the maket has been flat for a long time. Most in the Housing industry are concerned that the surge may peter out due to rising unemployment and the Government appearing indifferent to job losses.

    A lower dollar will cause a rise in the cost of imported goods and start to fuel the inflation genie. However, the Government is proposing to reduce benefits, increase the cost of services and spend extra money on things we don’t really need.

    So, the answer is a pineapple at the moment.

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