Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. CTar1

    I will try

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 12:48 pm

  2. outside

    yeah the AHA, developers, miners and other spiv types agree

    Not as bad as some.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 12:52 pm

  3. zoomster
    Posted Thursday, January 16, 2014 at 9:06 am | Permalink
    The Coalition was careful not to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs during the term of the last government by opposing action which might have stopped the boats.

    So is it in their best interests now to do so?

    If they ‘Stop the Boats’, then in a couple of years time, fear of boats will have subsided and the focus for the issue – if there is any at all – will shift once again to the treatment of detainees.

    Without ‘the boats’ to distract them (and ‘boat people’ to blame for taking their jobs, causing traffic jams, forcing Coles to sell halal meat, stealing disabled parking places and whatever other Bad Thing boat-detesters have experienced this week) people are going to be looking – and journalists reporting – on other matters to do with the government’s performance.

    That thought has crossed my mind too. Of course the coalition would argue that only they can maintain it and that a Labor government would open the flood gates again. But Labor has already demonstrated their determination to stop the boats with the Malaysia solution and especially the PNG solution, so come the next election, all they really need to say is “me too” and then focus on the mountain of ammunition they will have acquired by then to use against the government.

    by Darn on Jan 16, 2014 at 12:53 pm

  4. So no shots fired. That’s at least something good.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:00 pm

  5. The Age: Melbourne school gardener dies after working in heat

    Ivanhoe Girls' Grammar School is mourning the death a gardener who collapsed and died at the school in Wednesday's stifling heat.

    Surely Oz should start to think about days off in heatwaves. Poor guy was probably afraid he’d lose his job if he stayed away.

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:03 pm

  6. Bw – Sister’s dog on a blanket on the floor. On her back legs up.

    Sucking up the A/C.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:04 pm

  7. david, see how low the standard they’ve set is. Now the absence of a poor action – that shouldn’t occur in the first place – is “good” :P .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:04 pm

  8. lizzie, AGW is a conspiracy by lazy, poor folk who don’t want to work.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:05 pm

  9. davidwh

    If you are basing your statement on Morrison’s denial, I think you can safely assume the asylum seekers are right and he is wrong.

    by Lynchpin on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:06 pm

  10. An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter. He’s building for himself a healthy catalogue of examples showing his approach to what can and can’t be discussed is arbitrary and self-serving.

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:14 pm

  11. The method used by the Coalition allows them to control the release of (dis)information.

    Darn and zoomster assume that with the boats “stopped” the Coalition will have no ammunition. davidwh the other day suggested that they will declare the boats stopped when it is politically convenient. I think both may be backward.s

    “Stopped” doesn’t mean absolutely no boats. Nor does it mean none setting sail – the standard set for the Labor government – now it just means none reaching our shores or ears. Abbott has already declared success.

    There will still be boats but whether we hear about them or not will be at the convenience of the Coalition. At least that’s the game we can expect them to try on the Australian public given the Coalition’s past success at manipulating the issue.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:16 pm

  12. Lynchpin I give limited credence to unconfirmed reports from anonymous Indonesian officials probably less than I even give to Morrison. Having said that politicians seldom lie directly about something that can be confirmed.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:18 pm

  13. They should ask Morrison if Op Sov borders covers a defined area of ocean. If so did the alleged shooting incident happen outside this area ?

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:18 pm

  14. An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter. He’s building for himself a healthy catalogue of examples showing his approach to what can and can’t be discussed is arbitrary and self-serving.

    He is perfectly allowed to comment on whatever he chooses in the War with People Smugglers.

    The Australian people have given him a mandate to stop the boats and that’s exactly what he is doing.

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:22 pm

  15. Whilst the nation cooks Darwin heads the other way

    Darwin the coldest capital in country

    Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Todd Smith said yesterday was on par with the coolest January day in Darwin's recorded weather history

    Not even Hobart - a perpetually wet and icy place - was a match for the Top End capital when it came to snatching the title of the country's chilliest capital city of the day.

    The weather bureau's maximum temperatures yesterday were Adelaide (45.1C), Melbourne (42.8C), Canberra (37.6C), Hobart (30.3C), Brisbane (30.2C), Sydney (27.5C), Perth (26.7C). Darwin was at the bottom of the list with a top of just 25.7C.

    http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/as-other-capitals-sweat-its-cool-to-be-in-darwin/story-fnk0b1zt-1226802644894

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:23 pm

  16. Lynchpin I give limited credence to unconfirmed reports from anonymous Indonesian officials probably less than I even give to Morrison. Having said that politicians seldom lie directly about something that can be

    Can’t think of any reaSon certainly not anything he has done that would make anyone rate Morrison as trustworthy. Don’t you lie to the population whenever it suits you in war?

    I could do a list of distrust in order from least:

    Newscorp
    Abbott
    Morrison
    Drug users
    Bad credit auto lenders
    Car warranty companies
    Second hand car dealers
    Drug dealers
    Corrupt local Indonesian officials
    National Indonesian officials

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:26 pm

  17. ST

    There is no WAR!!!

    Morrison busy denying shots fired.

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:27 pm

  18. He is perfectly allowed to comment on whatever he chooses in the War with People Smugglers.

    Should we expect “conscription” next?

    Idiot.

    by Player One on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:27 pm

  19. Given all morrison and Abbott are doing is just continuing labor’s policies on AS then it is safe to say that any credit should really go to labor for any “stopping” of the boats.

    by Henry on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:30 pm

  20. I never said he was trustworthy WWP.

    Pretty well all politicains deceive by saying things in such a way as to create the wanted perception but with sufficient wriggle-room to deny that was what they intended to imply. That’s Politics 101. However to answer a specific question with yes/no response is another matter. There is little wriggle-room then.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:31 pm

  21. @GrogsGamut: My latest for @GuardianAus: “Is the skills shortage real or is industry trying to push down wages?” http://t.co/qhdYCfHMCz

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:31 pm

  22. http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/economy-sheds-more-than-30000-fulltime-jobs-20140116-30w6a.html

    Let’s see how the Abbott government deals with this.

    by MTBW on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:32 pm

  23. dwh – lying standard.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:33 pm

  24. Given all morrison and Abbott are doing is just continuing labor’s policies on AS then it is safe to say that any credit should really go to labor for any “stopping” of the boats.

    Remind us again how many boats Labor turned/towed back?

    Even that line is now done and dusted. The Coalition have stopped the boats and the punters recognise this. They will get full credits.

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:34 pm

  25. @702sydney: 40o in Penrith now. Prepare and beat the heat…

    http://t.co/BV58Ucakxf http://t.co/dzfTp6yvL7

    This may impact voters thinking in one of the seats that went from Labor to Liberal

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:35 pm

  26. Tisme

    They will get full credits.

    Sure, but we will see whether that translates into political support.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:35 pm

  27. The kiwi tory is nothing like our one that’s for sure. Unfortunately.

    Key has an advantage, which I do not like. He could easily be a Labour Prime Minister. He occupies the same part of the political spectrum as Helen Clark. National has kept all Labour’s income transfers and increased the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest New Zealanders. Who believes Labour would not have done a deal to build an Auckland Convention Centre, the broadband fibre rollout or to have the Avatar movies made here?

    .
    Sounds familiar

    Then there are the press gallery journalists, who believe if another journalist has said it then it must have credibility. But repeating nonsense does not make it sensible.

    http://www.listener.co.nz/current-affairs/politics/richard-prebble-no-left-turn/

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:38 pm

  28. CTar we generally argue a lot about what is a lie or not. Personally I think there are just levels of deception ranging from outright lying to misleading people. Politicians do it very well but generally try to avoid the outright lie they may get caught out on.

    Brough was an exception to that during the Slipper issue :)

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:40 pm

  29. Sean Tisme@173



    Given all morrison and Abbott are doing is just continuing labor’s policies on AS then it is safe to say that any credit should really go to labor for any “stopping” of the boats.


    Remind us again how many boats Labor turned/towed back?

    Even that line is now done and dusted. The Coalition have stopped the boats and the punters recognise this. They will get full credits.

    Tow backs did not stop the boats dummy – they’re still coming.
    It’s the labor govts PnG and Nauruan policies that are working. As indeed they were when labor was in office.

    by Henry on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:45 pm

  30. @GuardianAus: Know any climate change sceptics? Turn off their air conditioning http://t.co/oKH9ITY0Is

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:47 pm

  31. What is the beting that the ‘outside experts’ turn out to be Boton Consulting Group, currently giving pro bono help to Abbott’s Audit Commission?

    This is rolling out like a rug woven to pattern on an electronic weaver

    http://dianeravitch.net/category/black-alliance-for-educational-options/
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/school-curriculum-review-expertsl-to-be-expanded/5202952

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:52 pm

  32. “@ABCNews24: The Tasmanian Premier @LaraGiddings is expected to address the media at approx 2pm AEDT. Watch LIVE on #ABCNews24 #politas”

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:53 pm

  33. re 180

    Christopher Pyne confirms more experts can be called in to help on national curriculum review

    Updated 1 hour 3 minutes ago
    A teacher gives instructions to her pupils Photo: The review follows concerns the school curriculum is failing students. (Anne-Christine Pouloulat, file photo: AFP)
    Related Story: 'Culture wars' warning over curriculum review
    Map: Australia

    Education Minister Christopher Pyne says more experts can be called in to help review the national school curriculum.

    The Government recently announced that former teacher Kevin Donnelly and academic Ken Wiltshire will conduct the review, which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.

    At the time, Mr Pyne said it was unnecessary to have a committee working on the review.

    However, he has today confirmed Dr Donnelly and Professor Wiltshire will have the power to bring in experts to help review different education areas.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:53 pm

  34. Sean you can donate here seeing as you’re so keen to cause it
    http://www.gallipoliresearch.com.au/news/GMRF_post_traumatic_stress_disorder_research.aspx

    by paaptsef on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:55 pm

  35. guytaur,

    ST

    There is no WAR!!!

    Morrison busy denying shots fired.

    Tones has only likened it to war. So far they haven’t fired any bullets – only suppositories.

    by Acerbic Conehead on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:58 pm

  36. Puff

    One way in which “western civilization” is failing Australia is the cool climate insistence on working through the heat of the day. It’s crazy, but we’ve imported a 9 to 5 culture from UK/Ireland.

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 1:58 pm

  37. lizzie@185

    Puff

    One way in which “western civilization” is failing Australia is the cool climate insistence on working through the heat of the day. It’s crazy, but we’ve imported a 9 to 5 culture from UK/Ireland.

    So what are you suggesting we should be doing?

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:00 pm

  38. About time!!!

    “@3AW693: Just in. RT @AustralianOpen: The Extreme Heat Policy has now been implemented.”

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:04 pm

  39. How are our Adelide PBs surviving
    In Melb the temp is n the way to the forecast 44 deg…

    by deblonay on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:06 pm

  40. deblonay

    Earlier I was at the shopping centre close to where we both reside. It was packed. Seems like the locals think it is the best place to stay cool today

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:08 pm

  41. An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter.

    So, now under Morriscum and Abboot the Navy does NOT fire shots over the bows of a vessel to get it to stop? That’s a useful piece of information for the people smugglers to know isn’t it? :)

    by imacca on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:09 pm

  42. bemused

    Isn’t it obvious?

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:10 pm

  43. deblonay@188

    How are our Adelide PBs surviving
    In Melb the temp is n the way to the forecast 44 deg…

    Not sure why Adelaide is so much the focus.

    Melbourne will be almost as hot and has already reached 42.7. It could even end up exceeding Adelaide’s temperature!

    This is a very widespread phenomenon with a body of hot air from Central Australia blanketing all of the south east of Australia.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:11 pm

  44. lizzie@191

    bemused

    Isn’t it obvious?

    No. If it was I wouldn’t have asked.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:12 pm

  45. “@zedwoods: Breaking: Tas Parliament to be recalled on January 28 #politas”

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:12 pm

  46. Lizzie, us tradies start at 7. Usually very productive before the heat takes over

    by outside left on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:14 pm

  47. Victoria…re the heat

    I”ve friends who have gone to a son’s 40th birthday in Adalaide and they took a caravan…finding it unliveable there and spending days in a shopping centre as the son’s appartment is not ready and he’s with friends till it is
    and the long drive home in such heat is daunting too

    by deblonay on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:15 pm

  48. “@Simon_Cullen: Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings announces the state election will be on March 15”

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:16 pm

  49. He is perfectly allowed to comment on whatever he chooses in the War with People Smugglers.

    Knob.

    by Lynchpin on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:16 pm

  50. bemused

    It’s too late to change the culture now, but look at other European nations which live with heat, for example. Our inflexibility also works against more family-friendly (especially female-friendly) working hours.

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:17 pm

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