Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. Not sure why Adelaide is so much the focus.

    Because the forecast is a dangerous 46. I am sorry this means you precious petals miss out on a little attention. We’ll try to be more considerate of your need to be the centre of attention next time we have a record heat wave, k?

    by Carey Moore on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:17 pm

  2. Really davidwh?

    I expect then that you believed Howard about children overboard.

    by Lynchpin on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:17 pm

  3. david

    Not telling the truth is about enough.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:18 pm

  4. outside left

    That’s much better – and they knock off earlier.
    Farmers/vegie growers etc can adjust their work.

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:19 pm

  5. Lara Giddings coming across very well in her presser.

    by Asha Leu on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:19 pm

  6. Lara Giddings coming across very well in her presser.

    by Asha Leu on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:19 pm

  7. Re the Portuguese
    _______________
    There’s a monument to their explores at Warnambool…which is the site now af an annual event by that community

    It deals with the mysterious”Mahogany Ship” which the Portuguese claim as one of their’ vessels
    The ship was seen wrecked on a local beach by early settlers but later broke up and the timber was taken for local buildings
    Was it Portuguese ? or mayvbe Chinese as claimed by Bruce Menzies the author of”China Discovers the world ” ….in the 15th century…long before the Europeans came here

    interesting in rethe current matter

    by deblonay on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:20 pm

  8. Top temps so far:
    Adelaide 43.6
    Melbourne 42.8

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:23 pm

  9. lizzie@199

    bemused

    It’s too late to change the culture now, but look at other European nations which live with heat, for example. Our inflexibility also works against more family-friendly (especially female-friendly) working hours.

    I am not sure what the work culture is in the hotter parts of Europe in major cities.

    The old siesta was fine in small communities where people worked close to home. But in a modern large city, that is no longer the case for most people.

    On a really hot day I just adapt by going to work early before the heat really hits and I either leave work early to avoid the peak or stay on until it is cooler after the peak. Works for me.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:23 pm

  10. Asher’

    Wild stuff happens.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:24 pm

  11. The Government recently announced that former teacher Kevin Donnelly and academic Ken Wiltshire will conduct the review, which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.

    Could these people be part of Sean’s group of friends?

    by MTBW on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:25 pm

  12. The Liberals have form when it comes to lying about asylum seekers and lying about lots else besides.

    They just do it. Just like that.

    So when they say that no shots have been fired, it might be yet another example of the truth thrown overboard for cynical political purposes.

    Who knows?

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:25 pm

  13. Mtbw’

    All things possible.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:26 pm

  14. BW, I am with you.

    by Lynchpin on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:26 pm

  15. Carey Moore@200


    Not sure why Adelaide is so much the focus.


    Because the forecast is a dangerous 46. I am sorry this means you precious petals miss out on a little attention. We’ll try to be more considerate of your need to be the centre of attention next time we have a record heat wave, k?

    Not like you to be so snarky Carey.

    I said this is a widespread phenomenon. It will be worse in places other than Melbourne and Adelaide.

    BTW, Melbourne exceeded 46 deg in 2009.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:27 pm

  16. bemused

    Adelaide is the focus as officially world’s hottest city today.

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:29 pm

  17. When I worked up at VRD in the NT, the average max in Feb was 42.7 degrees.

    It was the Wet so it was always about to rain, raining or it had just rained.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:30 pm

  18. guytaur

    And yesterday.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:30 pm

  19. Hmmmm….Stuff worth a read and a laugh.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/nobel-scientist-willing-to-bet-on-global-warming/story-e6frg8y6-1226802749576

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/14/climate_change_another_study_shows_they_don_t_publish_actual_papers.html

    Of course the reason Grumpy True Disbelievers dont get published in Journals is because of the Global Conspiracy (involving thousands of scientists, none of whom have ever blown the whistle on it funnily enough??) to suppress the truth that its all a scam. :)

    by imacca on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  20. Bw

    It was the Wet so it was always about to rain, raining or it had just rained.

    You can stick that.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:36 pm

  21. Life is one long holiday for Abbott. After three years of being in our faces pretty much 24/7 he rarely appears in public these days.

    He could beat the heat by going on another skiing holiday. There is a brand new ski resort that he could visit:

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/15/travel/north-korea-ski-resort-gallery/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

    by citizen on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:37 pm

  22. CTaR1

    Bw

    It was the Wet so it was always about to rain, raining or it had just rained.

    You can stick that.

    We didn’t have electricity or running water. Air con was sitting up to our necks in water under the shade of a cadjeput, keeping an eye out for crocs.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:39 pm

  23. CTaR1
    The JR is sticking to tradition and sleeping through the heat.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:40 pm

  24. Bw – Sounds like my childhood.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:41 pm

  25. Bw = JR doing travel.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:42 pm

  26. @702sydney: 40o in Penrith now. Prepare and beat the heat…

    This may impact voters thinking in one of the seats that went from Labor to Liberal

    It may also cause Newspoll not to be conducted next weekend.

    by citizen on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:42 pm

  27. “@Simon_Cullen: RT @rachfisher71 Another Tas election fought over a pulp mill! #backtothefuture #wesleyvale #politas”

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:43 pm

  28. The reasons that climate change deniers aren’t published in serious, peer-reviewed scientific journals are the same as the reasons that proponents of healing crystals aren’t published in medical journals and creationists in journals of biology and geology.

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:44 pm

  29. Treasurer Joe Hockey expected yesterday’s public hearing into the Commission of Audit would be a “show trial” and a “stunt”.

    And at face value he was right. Those who hoped Tony Shepherd or the other Commissioners would reveal their views on privatising Australia Post or a co-payment for doctors’ consultations were bound to be disappointed.

    http://theconversation.com/audit-commissions-secrecy-and-haste-makes-for-bad-policy-22059

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:44 pm

  30. The ASX is up nearly 1.00%

    by MTBW on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:46 pm

  31. which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.

    So the curriculum is “failing students”. That would be the new national curriculum which is only just being rolled out this school year as I understand it – ie not a single student has been taught anything under the curriculum that is, apparently, “failing students”.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:47 pm

  32. Tasmanian election thread:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/01/16/tasmanian-election-march-15/

    by William Bowe on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:48 pm

  33. Why hasn’t Direct Action stopped the heatwave?

    See, we on the left could pose as wilful moronic trolls too if we liked but we have more dignity …

    by Marrickville Mauler on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:48 pm

  34. So late afternoon and I’ve swapped an E-500 for a 1100cc Ducati.

    Survive is around it.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:49 pm

  35. Really davidwh?

    I expect then that you believed Howard about children overboard.

    Lynchpin I’m different to most here. I don’t think either side of politics is much better or worse than the other when it comes to political deception and I don’t support either sides policy on border protection.

    As for Howard on Children Overboard I did take him at his word to begin with but was disappointly proven to have been naive.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:50 pm

  36. MM

    Love it!

    by MTBW on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:50 pm

  37. MM

    How many degrees cooler will Direct Action make the planet ?

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:52 pm

  38. Imacca 218
    Brian Schmidt would be 66/67 years old in 20 years time so it starts to look like he may not even be alive then. Plus 20 years is a long time to wait for 10K and by then 10K probably would not be worth a great deal.

    He should do it for 5 or 10 years time.

    by Geoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:52 pm

  39. Siesta most civilized
    _______________
    We spnt some time one summer in Spain and with most things shut at mid-day we got into the Siesta habit after lunch…were civilised in such heat…and one felt fresher once the cooler evening came…though the Spainish eat very late…even small kids which always worried my wife who thought they shoub be in bed !…but more applicable as Bemused just said…. to small towns

    by deblonay on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:55 pm

  40. So, Hockey has publicly stated that the Commission of Audit is one big political stunt aimed at providing a fig leaf of policy development cover for whatever class war bastardry the Abbott Government thinks it will get away with?

    I do so like an honest politician.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:55 pm

  41. Poroti # 236: dunno but it should make a few selected Tory friends richer at taxpayer expense which is after all what really counts

    Sorry to bail on my own game so soon, my head already hurts from trying to take denialist logic seriously!

    by Marrickville Mauler on Jan 16, 2014 at 2:55 pm

  42. Comment pretty much superfluous …

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-refuses-to-intervene-in-visa-case-of-student-attacked-by-neonazi-gang-20140116-30whj.html

    Actually, comment. Well done Captain Freedom.

    by Marrickville Mauler on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:00 pm

  43. Tow backs did not stop the boats dummy

    Now theres an Oxymoron if ever I saw one.

    Of course tow backs stop the boats… they are stopped by being towed back to Indonesia.

    You guys are really starting to come unhinged

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:00 pm

  44. Yes, the foolish person who expects to live to the ancient age of 66/67 years! Sheesh, everyone knows that hardly anyone survives to three score and ten years.

    Life expectancy at birth for males in Australia is 80, and the life expectancy for a white male who survives their teens/twenties is significantly more … Schmidt could easily expect to live to his mid 80s.

    66/67 and likely to be dead. LOL. That explains conservative ‘long term’ thinking perhaps.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:02 pm

  45. “…which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.”

    I recently heard that line or something very similar in an ABC Newsradio bulletin on the Government’s announcement of the Curriculum review, stated without attribution and without any indication as to who was ‘concerned’. It’s similar to references to the ‘botched home Insulation program’ you hear when Pink Batts are in the news.

    This seems to be a matter of the ABC simply regurgitating statements in ministerial press releases or picking up what is printed in the morning papers (mostly controlled by guess who).

    The Curriculum was not as I recall mentioned in the election campaign. It was certainly far from the front of the campaign. It was not mentioned in the Coalition’s ‘Real Solutions’ pamphlet. There may have been obscure academics railing against it in the pages of ‘the Australian’ – I wouldn’t know, it’s been a while since I read it. But there was certainly no widespread community concern. This whole thing smacks of a strategic move in an ideological war. It also again highlights laziness on the part of the ABC.

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:03 pm

  46. Um jackol I said he may not even be alive not He will likely be dead.
    I always love your reading and analysis skills always top notch.

    by Geoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:05 pm

  47. Schmidt made precisely the point I was making.’ It is all about risk management.

    Newman and Switser are only pretending to believe in global warming. This is quite a clever sophistry ploy.

    Last year was the fourth hottest on record, globally. The oceans are gaining heat. Sea levels are rising. Global ice mass balance is going down the tubes. The rate of oceanic acidification is the highest for millenia. Thousands of species have shifted geography and phenology. Populations are variously booming (jellyfish) or going down the tubes (numerous species).

    Just one out of 9,000 peer reviewed authors thinks that the science is wRONg.

    97% of climate scientists in another study support human influence on climate by way of CO2 emissions.

    All the worlds top science acadamies think that Denierism is a crock of intellectual shit.

    If Newman and Switser want to be treated as if they have a skerrick of credibility, they have to come out with some numbers about what it is that we are NOT supposed to be worrying about:

    (1) the rate of acidification, what it will be like in 2100, and what the costs will be.
    (2) The rate of heat gain and how this will be expressed.
    (3) Sea levels in 2050 and 2100.
    (4) Atmospheric and oceans temperature gain.

    After all, if they are saying, don’t worry about it, they must be able to say what it is that we are not worrying about.

    But they will not because they can not.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:06 pm

  48. On what basis does Abbott justify spending all that money on Direct Action. Why?

    by BK on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:06 pm

  49. Geoff -

    Um jackol I said he may not even be alive

    And you or I could be hit by a bus tomorrow.

    That’s not the point.

    You were making some specious comment about planning for something in 20 years when there was a reasonable chance that the person making the bet would be dead.

    The chances of him being dead at 66/67 are very low, and that was my point. The fact that you even brought ‘may even be dead’ into the picture shows you think it a significant probability, when the facts are that he would be very unlucky (hit-by-a-bus unlucky) for that to be the case, and the notion that he should be considering his likely survival in 20 years time (more than any of us should) is just silly.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:09 pm

  50. Bill has turned up. Now will Abbott show his face ?

    Terri Butler, Bill Shorten campaign in Brisbane shopping centre

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/terri-butler-bill-shorten-campaign-in-brisbane-shopping-centre-20140116-30whx.html

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:10 pm

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