Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 |
  1. A Good Day in the US Senaste
    _____________
    The blatant attempot by the zionist lobby to torpedo the negotiations between Obama and yther Iran is slipping

    A Bill to stop such peace talks…iniated by the Israeli regime supporters in the Senate …is stuck in the Senate…not helped by yesterdays’ insulted by an Israeli minister to John Kerry…who is less their puppet then they would like
    The Israelis want a US war on Iran which would leave then dominant for a long time in the M East///Abama knowing the disasters of Iraq and the blow to the US ecomy isn’t buying that idea
    War is the only real foreign policy Israeli espouses but the US can’t go down that road anymore …and unless the US meets the Iranian leaders China and Russia will end all co- operation re sanctions
    r
    so the Israli power over US policies makes is being seen to be less than they think…and that’s as” The American Conservative “says is a turning point
    The Amcon mag.. has always been very critical of the Jewish Lobbys dominance in Washington and elsewhere

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/a-bad-day-for-kirk-menendez-schumer/

    by deblonay on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:11 pm

  2. Bill has turned up. Now will Abbott show his face ?

    I don’t even understand why the LNP are contesting it, so I can’t imagine Abbott would want to link himself to a campaign that’s likely to result in an LNP drubbing.

    Maybe it’s a local thing and Glasson was so determined to do it the LNP organization couldn’t stop him.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:12 pm

  3. Sean, you seem fixated on the boats issue, as it has now stopped can you go back to your other favourite topic of reducing wages in the IT industry.

    by PeeBee on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:13 pm

  4. shows you think

    No no it doesn’t. It is however a factor in making a bet over 20 years.
    Your top notch skills are on show again.

    by Geoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:15 pm

  5. It is however a factor in making a bet over 20 years.

    So no one, ever, should make a bet over 20 years?

    Schmidt’s chances of being alive in 20 years are about the same as anyone else’s. That was my point.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:19 pm

  6. PeeBee

    To be fair it’s all there is when you can’t mention the economy, unemployment , health, education , global warming etc etc etc ?

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:22 pm

  7. Further regarding the National Curriculum: I don’t recall Christopher Pyne saying very much ( or anything) about the National Curriculum or much about any other topic relating to Education during his time as Shadow Education Minister. He showed far more interest in playing Parliamentary games than developing or discussing Education policy.

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:23 pm

  8. Professor Schmidt is a smart guy, he will adapt to being dead.

    by mimhoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:27 pm

  9. So no one, ever, should make a bet over 20 years?

    If he wants people to really take the bet then no.
    At the moment it just makes his ‘I will make a 20 year bet seem a bit hollow’
    1 of 2 things will happen when when 20 years rocks around.

    1. He is right but really would not care if anyone gives him 10K which will not be worth what it is today.
    or
    2. He is wrong but he now does not care. He no longers has a career to protect and he can just say Oops I was wrong.
    News headlines say 70 year old man say woops.

    If really believes his science abilities and actually wants someone to take on the bet then he would do it for 5 – 10 years time at a max.

    by Geoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:28 pm

  10. Steve777

    Pyne and dutton are famous for never asking questions when they were shadow ministers. I think dutton might have fronted a few times but like Pyne he was more interested in sneering across the chamber for which he coped plenty of warnings as I recall.

    by rossmcg on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:29 pm

  11. Steve777 – the ABC reports on the curriculum culture war make the unequivocal statement that:

    The Coalition promised a thorough review of the curriculum during the election campaign, arguing that Labor had politicised school teaching material to an unacceptable degree.

    Now, I don’t remember this specifically, and I’d be surprised if many voters can remember this, but apparently they said it.

    It’s not a broken promise, it’s just the LNP waging its culture wars again, dishonestly as per usual.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:30 pm

  12. Poroti, to be fair, Sean has talks about other favourite topics. For instance, he went to great lengths to explain why a carbon price was not a tax because it was like his car registration, and then he talked about how everything is radioactive.

    Give him time, he will come around to the economy, unemployment, health, eduction global warming when Abbott has fixed them all up.

    I can’t wait until he comes up with his insightful question. You know the ones, they go like this:

    ‘How’s the *topic* going for you. Oh wait……’

    by PeeBee on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:32 pm

  13. “If he wants people to really take the bet then no.
    At the moment it just makes his ‘I will make a 20 year bet seem a bit hollow’
    1 of 2 things will happen when when 20 years rocks around.

    1. He is right but really would not care if anyone gives him 10K which will not be worth what it is today.
    or
    2. He is wrong but he now does not care. He no longers has a career to protect and he can just say Oops I was wrong.
    News headlines say 70 year old man say woops.

    If really believes his science abilities and actually wants someone to take on the bet then he would do it for 5 – 10 years time at a max.”

    But Brian Schmidt didn’t propose the rules of the bet. He accepted a challenge set by Richard Lindzen and Maurice Newman.

    by mimhoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:33 pm

  14. If really believes his science abilities

    If he really ‘believes his science abilities’ (what a cackhanded way of phrasing that), he knows that AGW is a process that occurs over decades.

    Schmidt obviously believes that he will be proven right, unequivocally, in 20 years, while 5 or 10 years the year-to-year variability will still be clouding the issues.

    You want to discount the point he is trying to make – oh, a 20 year bet has no weight because he’ll be dead or old or something. Old people obviously don’t give a shit about anything anymore, so he won’t care.

    The whole ‘bet’ nonsense was started by Richard Lindzen via Maurice Newman, so if you’re complaining about stupid wagers complain about them.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:37 pm

  15. Jackol@254


    It is however a factor in making a bet over 20 years.


    So no one, ever, should make a bet over 20 years?

    Schmidt’s chances of being alive in 20 years are about the same as anyone else’s. That was my point.

    Newman’s mortality would be more of an issue.

    But somehow I just can’t get myself all worked up at the prospect of one less nutter. :evil:

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:38 pm

  16. But Brian Schmidt didn’t propose the rules of the bet. He accepted a challenge set by Richard Lindzen and Maurice Newman.

    Mimhoff you are correct I miss read.
    That makes it even worse. Richard Lindzen is 73 years old.
    Talk about making a safe bet.

    by Geoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:39 pm

  17. mimhoff@257

    Professor Schmidt is a smart guy, he will adapt to being dead.

    We all do.

    "Death is all in the mind. Once you're dead, you forget all about it." :D

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:41 pm

  18. Four months since the election and Abetz still tries to blame the Opposition for his government’s employment mess.

    Australia has had its worst year for jobs growth for 17 years, sparking talk of an interest rate cut and a political blame game...

    Federal Employment Minister Eric Abetz said the figures showed the need for Labor and the Greens to allow the coalition to deliver on its election promises, including abolishing the carbon and mining taxes and reinstating the building industry watchdog...

    "The Labor-Green alliance continues to delay legislation which will assist job creation and a stronger economy, which are so desperately needed," Senator Abetz said.

    Opposition employment spokesman Brendan O'Connor said it was a wake-up call for the coalition.

    "Since he was elected, all Mr Abbott has done is stand idly by as thousands of workers were told they would lose their jobs," Mr O'Connor said.

    http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-figures-raise-rates-cut-040112157.html

    by citizen on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:42 pm

  19. The whole ‘bet’ nonsense was started by Richard Lindzen via Maurice Newman, so if you’re complaining about stupid wagers complain about them.

    Sorry jackol you are correct in this. I thought Brian Schmidt had made it and thought if you want to be taken seriously then you would make it for a smaller time frame.

    it is about 10 times worse then I had first thought. Richard Lindzen to already in his 70s (according to wikipedia). He does not really care what happens in 20 years time.

    by Geoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:46 pm

  20. Geoff@265

    In what way is it worse? You contended that a 46-year old Brian Schmidt would never get someone to “really take” a 20-year bet, and yet what actually happened in reality is 73-year old Richard Lindzen had no trouble finding a taker!

    by mimhoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:46 pm

  21. Jackol @ 260

    Steve777 – the ABC reports on the curriculum culture war make the unequivocal statement that:

    The Coalition promised a thorough review of the curriculum during the election campaign, arguing that Labor had politicised school teaching material to an unacceptable degree.

    Now, I don’t remember this specifically, and I’d be surprised if many voters can remember this, but apparently they said it.

    You don’t remember it because it’s complete bullshit. That pamphlet at http://www.liberal.org.au/real-solutions mention the word “curriculum” precisely once, on page 40:

    We will support teachers in the classroom by ensuring our curriculum is rigorous without being too prescriptive or overcrowded

    by Narns on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:49 pm

  22. Mimhoff can you say that Brian Schmidt is taking on a highly risky bet? or even a risky bet.
    Do you think that in 20 years time if both of them are still alive that any money will change hands?

    by Geoff on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:51 pm

  23. Geoff

    Schmidt is giving Newman the benefit of interdecadal variability doubt.

    If Newman is right, then a 20 year time frame increases Newman’s chances of collecting.

    Since Newman is so sure he is right that he is willing to bet the planet on our behalf, then he is sure to accept a 20 year bet.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:53 pm

  24. One thing is for sure: the deleterious impacts of climate nutters like Newman, Switser and Abbott are likely to last long after they die.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:54 pm

  25. @weatherzone 30m
    Adelaide, Melbourne & Canberra share consecutive 40-degree days for first time in more than 70 years http://www.weatherzone.com.au/

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:55 pm

  26. lizzie

    So, in Newman’s terms, what do you think Mother Nature is trying to tell us?

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:56 pm

  27. Now let’s see.

    Who to believe? A guy who has dedicated his whole life to science and who has won a Nobel Prize?

    Or a couple of finance industry ‘workers’?

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 3:57 pm

  28. The Boats have been Stopped.

    Next up is the Carbon Tax to be Axed.

    Then after that it’s time to deliver a Budget Surplus.

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:01 pm

  29. Sean Tisme@277

    The Boats have been Stopped.

    Next up is the Carbon Tax to be Axed.

    Then after that it’s time to deliver a Budget Surplus.

    In your dreams.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:03 pm

  30. Boerwar

    :lol:

    Mother Nature is very cross with us for making up stories about her planet. If we would only stop being silly about warm days and cold days, we would understand that everything is for the best in this best of all possible worlds – but only if we put sensible Conservatives in charge, to make use of all the gifts She has provided for them. If we insist on mad schemes like allowing free love and Labor governments, she will punish us by sending cyclones and heatwaves until we forget all this progressive nonsense.

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:03 pm

  31. If Newspoll says there is no Climate Change then there isn’t.

    Sensible tradies, pensioners, shock-jocks, Murdoch gurus, Business People and Bondi Icebergers know better than the collected elitist, tit-sucking, inner-city, latte-loving, taxpayer-robbing Climate Science fraternity who have been pushing this outrageous scam for far too long.

    A boat got caught in the ice… in Antarctica!

    The Army lit the Blue Mountains fires… no biggy!

    We are a land of droughts and flooding rains… Dorathea MacKellar knew it even then!

    It was warm in the time of Jesus… we adapted!

    Anyway, the Earth is cooling, it’s all sunspots, and the thermometers in those days didn’t work properly anyway.

    What’s everyone so excited about?

    by Bushfire Bill on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:15 pm

  32. The Boats have not been stopped.

    Next up is their failure to axe the Carbon Tax.

    Then after that it’s time to forget any chance of the Abbott government ever delivering a Budget Surplus.

    by badseed on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:25 pm

  33. http://victoriarollison.com/2014/01/16/garden-variety-climate-change-deniers/
    Takes examples from Twitter, such as Chris Kenny, Masurice Newman.

    So there you have it. The first step to solving a problem is identifying it. These are the deniers we have to put up with, who are doing their best to delay or stop action to slow the catastrophic effects of climate change. These are the people the mainstream media call on to help them to show ‘balance’. These are the people our country elects to govern us all. These are the people who continue to get very rich from their denial, while poor people are the first to suffer from the effects of climate change, not having the funds to insulate themselves from harm’s way. So we keep fighting. We do it for our children. We do it for our global community. And we do it for ourselves. Because climate change is happening right now and we have to do something about it.

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:30 pm

  34. BB,

    elitist, tit-sucking, inner-city, latte-loving, taxpayer-robbing Climate Science fraternity...

    Oh, f#%^ off. Why do I have to drink latte to belong? I’m a cappuccino man. I like chocolate sprinkles. What’s the problem with that? Latte… Pffft.

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:32 pm

  35. Abbott might stop the boats, he might remove the carbon price (not a tax) and he might have a surplus (whether or not it is appropriate to the economic conditions) he might also destroy the NBN and waste billions at the same time. All this is going to be BAD for Australia.

    You must really hate Australia Sean. Very sad.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:33 pm

  36. I do hope that Abbott and Morrison have succeeded in stopping the boats because the price has been very, very high.

    In the usual way of these things, we have yet to pay our dues.

    The acid drip, drip, drip on our Indonesian relationship continues. What is being corroded here is the future.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:33 pm

  37. fire in the Southern Flinders has been burning for a couple of days starting to get nasty http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/custom/criimson/1038125.html

    by paaptsef on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:37 pm

  38. Some of you may be interested in this:

    https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/?shva=1#inbox/143995fd4117bca8

    It is the Change.org petition results from Thomas Kelly’s family. They received 135,000 signatures on their petition.

    It includes a contact point to Barry O’Farrell.

    We need to get the funds provided to political parties by the AHA and the Liquor Industry to be severely restricted.

    by MTBW on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:39 pm

  39. This is so bloody cruel

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/outrage-over-live-export-trade-as-4000-sheep-cooked-alive-20140116-30x0i.html

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:43 pm

  40. Adelaide temperature topped out at 44 degrees at 3 pm today.

    Not as bad as feared.

    by don on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:45 pm

  41. MTBW
    When I clicked on that link it took me to a Google ad for gmail.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:45 pm

  42. MTBW@287

    Some of you may be interested in this:

    https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/?shva=1#inbox/143995fd4117bca8

    It is the Change.org petition results from Thomas Kelly’s family. They received 135,000 signatures on their petition.

    It includes a contact point to Barry O’Farrell.

    We need to get the funds provided to political parties by the AHA and the Liquor Industry to be severely restricted.

    Add to your list:
    Tobacco Industry
    Gambling Industry

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:46 pm

  43. vic

    Last August? Gillard or Rudd?

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:47 pm

  44. don@289

    Adelaide temperature topped out at 44 degrees at 3 pm today.

    Not as bad as feared.

    Looks like Melbourne topped out at 43.9.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:47 pm

  45. BW,

    The acid drip, drip, drip on our Indonesian relationship continues. What is being corroded here is the future.

    In all honesty, it worries me, the future geopolitical climate facing my young son if Australian Prime Ministers were to continue antagonising China and Indonesia.

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:49 pm

  46. Boerwar

    August last year Rudd was PM

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:50 pm

  47. bemused did that link work for you!

    Boerwar try this:

    Thomas Kelly Youth Foundation info@thomaskellyyouthfoundation.org.au via mail6.mcsignup.com

    by MTBW on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:50 pm

  48. Oh dear. We now have parallel investigative processes in Indonesia and Queensland into the Bischoff deaths. Two lots of police persons. Two lots of politicians. Two lots of legal peoples.

    I trust it is worth it.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:52 pm

  49. Abbott has managed to create this Fact “22,600 jobs were shed from the economy” in December.

    It makes his million jobs promise look impossible.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:52 pm

  50. bemused@293

    don@289

    Adelaide temperature topped out at 44 degrees at 3 pm today.

    Not as bad as feared.

    Looks like Melbourne topped out at 43.9.

    Adelaid overall nastier around the suburbs and I note Roseworthy topped out at 46.4.

    Melbourne actually seems to have been hotter than any of the suburbs or nearby places except for Viewbank also 43.9. Usually there are a few hotter places than the CBD.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:53 pm

« | »