Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. Only 44?

    This proves that the hysterical CAGW alarmists, aided by an uncritical press, and aided by their ability to persecute genuine denialists, were wRONg again!

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:53 pm

  2. He said imposing extra conditions on the LSS' export licence would in effect have a financial penalty on the company.

    Tut, tut! Oh dear, how sad…

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/outrage-over-live-export-trade-as-4000-sheep-cooked-alive-20140116-30x0i.html#ixzz2qXQGANe1

    by lizzie on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:55 pm

  3. Boerwar:

    [i]I do hope that Abbott and Morrison have succeeded in stopping the boats because the price has been very, very high.

    In the usual way of these things, we have yet to pay our dues.

    The acid drip, drip, drip on our Indonesian relationship continues. What is being corroded here is the future.[/quote]

    BW – this is the second time I have been impressed by a post of yours re Indonesia. You seem to have a particularly informed interest in that country? Mine comes from way back – 60s and 70s when journo colleagues of mine were FC in Jakarta during Soekarno years and Konfrontasi.

    You seem to think the Indonesian government is unhappy with current state of affairs. And yet all this has been happening without any public carry on from them even though it is occurring within a couple of weeks of the Graud/ABC’s spy mobile phone scandal. What’s the drip drip drip effect there?

    You wouldn’t patronise by arguing the Indon Govt doesn’t know what it is saying and releasing, particularly on twitter … would you? I don’t geddit, BW.

    by Bar Bar on Jan 16, 2014 at 4:58 pm

  4. A spokesman for Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce said there was a system in place to ensure incidents like this were minimised and remained infrequent.

    ‘‘The system isn’t about shutting down the trade, it’s about policing it,’ he said.

    ‘The system is not about stopping cruelty but is about enabling companies to continue getting away with it,’ he continued.

    ‘We will continue to turn a blind eye to cruelty to thousands of Australian animals as long as we can provide cover for those who make profits out of that the cruelty,’ he explained.

    ‘How hard is that for doctors’ wives, latte sipping, inner city vego chardonnay swilling lefty do-gooders to understand?’ he wondered.

    ‘To sum up, bottom line is that, as long as we can make a buck and a vote out of it, we are prepared to put up with gross cruelty to thousands of Australian animals and boat-borne asylum seekers. Whatever. Same, same,’ he concluded.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:01 pm

  5. The Indonesian Government is slightly sidetracked by the 25,000 nationals who have fled their homes because of the volcanic eruptions.

    Boats will become an issue when these Indonesian nationals get angry at people taking their place in the queue for help.

    Close all the UNHCR camps and give people a month to leave. Where do they go?

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:07 pm

  6. Bar Bar

    You seem to think the Indonesian government is unhappy with current state of affairs. And yet all this has been happening without any public carry on from them even though it is occurring within a couple of weeks of the Graud/ABC’s spy mobile phone scandal. What’s the drip drip drip effect there?

    You wouldn’t patronise by arguing the Indon Govt doesn’t know what it is saying and releasing, particularly on twitter … would you? I don’t geddit, BW.

    I was born there. My father was a soldier in the Dutch colonial army there. So I have had a life long interest in Indonesian matters. I studied it formally in third year history.

    I try to look at these issues from what I regard as a multiplicity of Indonesian perspectives. If I get that right I am a skilled observer. If I get it wrong, am I patronising? Perhaps. It depends what drives the errors.

    It is difficult for me to go past the general notion that Morrison, Bishop and Abbott have a genuine and heartfelt contempt for Indonesia. It is not isolated incidents. It is the patterns.

    It is also difficult for me to believe that this is not perfectly obvious to Indonesians.

    This is the acid to which I was referring.

    That said, there are various players active on the Indonesian side and they will be trying to maximise their personal and institutional gains from the fracas.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:07 pm

  7. MTBW@296

    bemused did that link work for you!

    Boerwar try this:

    Thomas Kelly Youth Foundation info@thomaskellyyouthfoundation.org.au via mail6.mcsignup.com

    Nope. Drops you into email.

    Is this what you are after?

    http://thomaskellyyouthfoundation.org.au/

    by don on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:09 pm

  8. don
    Yes. I have liked the Newcastle model for some time because it works.

    Am I utterly sick of special interest profiteers who want to make a buck out of selling drugs while socializing the costs?

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:11 pm

  9. Roy Morgan Business Confidence in December continued to fall for the second month as economic realities hit

    Ang about wasn’t the election of Tony going to be an adrenaline rush for the economy by itself?

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:14 pm

  10. Don

    Yes!Thanks!

    by MTBW on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:15 pm

  11. I’m a cappuccino man. I like chocolate sprinkles. What’s the problem with that?

    Back to the ‘burbs for you!

    by Martin B on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  12. Martin B,

    I’m a cappuccino man. I like chocolate sprinkles. What’s the problem with that?

    Back to the ‘burbs for you!

    I will not yield.

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:25 pm

  13. The plain fact is the discourse on asylum seekers, animal cruelty, alcohol fuelled violence, climate change policy, educational curriculum and budget deficits due to poor revenue raising are all hi-jacked in the MSM by “vested interests”.

    Normally “vested interests” requires one to not take any part in the debate. You are supposed to honourably disqualify oneself.

    In Australia these purveyors and protectors of “vested interests” are given front billing in order to “fog” the average person with their supposed independence. This is presented in the MSM as a form of balance.

    Far from progressives setting the tone of change it’s these liars who are altering the future of Australia at great cost to all of us.

    by ausdavo on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:34 pm

  14. It seems Joe Hockey had nothing to say about today’s unemployment statistics. Anyone spot him anywhere?

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:51 pm

  15. rua

    He has put out a presser stating that the figures are an absolute disgrace.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:55 pm

  16. One million jobs promised. One million and thirty thousand to go.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:58 pm

  17. rua

    Does this count ? Well nah but it is as near as we can expect.

    Government warns against indiscriminate slashing of jobs

    The letter from Treasurer Joe Hockey ....

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/government-warns-against-indiscriminate-slashing-of-jobs-20140116-30wtd.html

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 5:58 pm

  18. The link in #316 seems like a logical approach to any further cuts in the PS.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:04 pm

  19. davidwh

    Yep but remind me again who bellowed for years about the need to slash “bloated” public service ?

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:07 pm

  20. david, the link in 317 sounds like a bunch of whinging that they didn’t get to make the cuts because they had already been made by a Labor government that the Coalition had spent a couple of terms bashing for bloated beauracracy.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:09 pm

  21. True Poroti but things change when you go from opposition to government. Things are different once you own the problems.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:09 pm

  22. Well, 44 deg now forecast for Melbourne tomorrow. :eek:

    This unprecedented in my memory. 4 consecutive days above 40 deg.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:10 pm

  23. Sure, a change like going from living in fantasy land to reality.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:10 pm

  24. DN I understand why it’s better when Labor cuts the jobs secretly ;)

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:11 pm

  25. So now it’s not “we’re going to cut Labor’s bloat” it’s “Labor didn’t make the right kind of cuts”. Hoho.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:12 pm

  26. davidwh

    This bit:

    "These reductions were largely untargeted, making no distinction between higher or lower priority areas of spending and having no regard to the financial health of different parts of government," the ministers wrote.

    Is rubbish

    It also shows a disregard for how Government works. We have one Govt not healthy bits and crook bits. This is why Health and Social Services get a shitload of money and the Heritage Commission gets a lot less, its called a Budget.

    The only fair was of introducing efficiency dividends is to apply them WoG.

    What Hockey wants to do is cut funds from programs he does not like. A very different thing.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:12 pm

  27. Sure, a change like going from living in fantasy land to reality

    Yes that’s the difference between opposition and government. Remember when both Rudd and Swannie were championing how they were both economic conservatives. You don’t get much more fantasy land than that.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:12 pm

  28. davidwh

    The “secret” published and announced reductions ? You know the ones the no longer fit for purpose msm ignored because leadershit was more important.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:15 pm

  29. Much is being made on 7 News about Adelaide being the hottest City in the World today. I am sure that is true but it’s an example if a manufactured story. I expect that the ‘distinction’ of being the hottest major city in the world would be regularly shared between Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne during the Austral Summer. Even mild and breezy Sydney probably ‘won’ that contest on January 18 last year (45.8). The only competition would be South America (mostly wet / humid / elevated / cool Ocean currents) and Southern Africa (ditto). The Middle East and India are in their cooler seasons and it’s Winter in North America.

    The real story, not being given a run, is why extremes are more extreme, happening more often and happening for longer

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:16 pm

  30. david
    That is why our media with its tendency to focus on the government and ignore the opposition is doing us no favours.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:16 pm

  31. davidwh@320

    True Poroti but things change when you go from opposition to government. Things are different once you own the problems.

    Its only just starting as well with the tories name written all over the problems.

    Unemployment particularly is the one to watch closely.

    abbott reckoned he had all the answers, more like he didn’t even know the correct questions.

    by dave on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:17 pm

  32. Media excluding the Murdoch press which has a different and obvious bias :P .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:17 pm

  33. Poroti yes I know the efficiency dividend job losses. The ones the union hardly made a sound about. The ones that don’t destroy the economy like the Newman ones did.

    Sorry I have to go now. I’m starting to sound like ML.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:19 pm

  34. Abbott reckoned he would take credit for something that was expected to happen naturally. Now that it turns out it may not happen it’s only fair that he takes some hits :P .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:19 pm

  35. victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 16, 2014 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    This is so bloody cruel

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/outrage-over-live-export-trade-as-4000-sheep-cooked-alive-20140116-30x0i.html

    At well over $100 a head by the time the get them to the middle east, it is also bloody expensive.

    The sheep being loaded are in good nick.

    by frednk on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:19 pm

  36. david
    [Sorry I have to go now. I’m starting to sound like ML.
    No you’re not :P .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:19 pm

  37. I’d just remind people that employment statistics are notoriously noisy and jump around a lot from month to month.

    A big drop this month may well be corrected by the ABS next month or they may report a corresponding big jump.

    If I were the government I’d be more concerned with the deteriorating confidence numbers.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:21 pm

  38. Steve777

    it’s an example if a manufactured story

    Don’t be so critical. Hottest city in the world headlines will grab the attention of the usually unengaged waaay quicker than headlines about longer heatwaves than normal. With attention grabbed the idea that global warming is real will not seem so unbelievable. Even if it has happened before people have not seen such headlines before.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:22 pm

  39. david, if anything you’re simply throwing back what we’re throwing at you ;) .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:23 pm

  40. davidwh

    I’m starting to sound like ML.

    Rubbish. Nearest you get is being a real live moderate lib.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:25 pm

  41. I was being a bit cheeky DN :)

    I hope ML returns soon.

    Jackol hard to fault the logic of your #336. The real problem at present is that confidence has taken a hit with much of it due to the staggering start by the new government. Politics aside I still hope they improve and Abbott proves me wrong.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:26 pm

  42. 46
    guytaur

    It is good to see the sense shown by the PB folk on heatwave precautions. Hopefully this is a sample of typical behaviour making deaths of people and animals as minimal as possible.

    I have an additional piece of advice for those without air conditioning on this exceptional day. A good day to go to the cinema and watch a couple of movies in air conditioned comfort if you are close enough to do so and animals ok to be left alone. Alternatively visit a friend who has air conditioning.

    As somebody with decades of experience at dealing with hot weather, I can recommend for those without an air-con to don a damp denim jacket (or similar), and sit in a breeze or under a fan. Works very well at keeping the core temperature down, which is the main aim of keeping cool. Works better in drier heat, but still does the job okay for humid heat. Does need rewetting every hour or so, but otherwise a very effective short term solution. Can be a genuine life saver sometimes.

    164
    poroti

    Whilst the nation cooks Darwin heads the other way.

    Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Todd Smith said yesterday was on par with the coolest January day in Darwin's recorded weather history

    Yes, and very pleasant it was too. :)

    Persistent active monsoon weather can actually be quite cool, relatively speaking. Several days of heavy overcast and rainy conditions brings the temp right down,… and the mould levels right up.

    Catch is, of course, that you are also dodging cyclones.

    by Just Me on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:27 pm

  43. david
    You, like I, are doomed to live in disappointment :P .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:29 pm

  44. I fear you are correct DN but I’m a glass half-full type of person most of the time so I hope against reason at times.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:30 pm

  45. Man it is hot out there!

    What’s going to happen to the tennis if we continue to experience these extreme temperatures?

    The top players will not be coming to play in the Australian open for sure regardless of what whip the controlling authority waves.

    What about the soccer the other night?

    The players were dripping sweat like a fountain. It certainly affected the Wanderers after their great performance in a high standard game against Sydney FC three nights before.

    The world must act to combat global warming and we must participate in that action.

    Abbott = HUGE Fail!

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:31 pm

  46. I see davidwh has switched to full Liberal now he has got down from the fence.

    LNP Good – ALP Bad is such a boring chant.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:31 pm

  47. Just Me

    Several days of heavy overcast and rainy conditions brings the temp right down

    After the build up just why I loved the wet. That and everything turning green again and I don’t mean the mold explosions :)

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:33 pm

  48. Rua I prefer LNP not always bad and Labor not alway good.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:34 pm

  49. rua

    LNP Good – ALP Bad is such a boring chant.

    I prefer ALP Good – LNP Bad, myself :P .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:35 pm

  50. @348 disclaimer.

    That’s me being cheeky.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:37 pm

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