Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. Dear Mr Abbott,
    These heat waves are not crap. The increasing frequencies of extreme heat waves are not crap, The smashing of weather records are not crap, 4 41 + days in a row, is not crap.
    Our climate has changed, AGW is not crap.

    You, however …..

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:39 pm

  2. Has any economic indicator ( real ones not touchy feelies) improved since Abbott was elected? Thought not.

    Was there 22,600 people looking for a job in Dec who had one in Nov. Yep.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:41 pm

  3. I heard Adelaide is going to be the hottest city in the world tomorrow?

    What cam you say?

    Glad it ain’t Sydney :twisted:

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:42 pm

  4. Have to really go now. May be back later but have three days of grandparenting starting in about an hour.

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:44 pm

  5. I would advise cooked southerners to move to Qld, but cooking is better than Newman.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:44 pm

  6. Centre

    I heard Adelaide is going to be the hottest city in the world tomorrow?

    Actually Adelaide is Hot Hot Hot for the whole year. Lonely Planet lists Adelaide as one of the 15 must see cities in 2014.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:44 pm

  7. david, don’t let them bully you ;) .

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:45 pm

  8. Jackol@336

    I’d just remind people that employment statistics are notoriously noisy and jump around a lot from month to month.

    A big drop this month may well be corrected by the ABS next month or they may report a corresponding big jump.

    If I were the government I’d be more concerned with the deteriorating confidence numbers.

    Yes there is truth in what you say, but there are a range of decisions already taken by abbott that will also feed into future unemployment numbers – some of those decisions made for ideological reasons which the tories will have to wear if it turns to mush.

    Gottliebsen set some of it out last year -

    dave@780 on Seat of the week: Calwell | The Poll Bludger

    Not a good look for abbott – Gottliebsen, writing for murdoch puts the boot into abbott -

    Australia’s five tidal waves of unemployment

    Four enormous tidal waves are coming towards us not so much in calendar 2014 but in 2015 and especially in 2016 (the election year).

    The biggest wave is the decline in the mining investment boom.

    Leaving aside maintenance and normal capital expenditure mining investment rose from around 2 to 3 per cent of GDP to around 7 per cent.

    It looks like falling back to its traditional levels as the election approaches. We are looking at 70 per cent size reductions in a countless number of contractors. Many will disappear.

    At the same time as the mining investment collapse – 2015 and 2016 – we are going to see a second wave. Higher gas and power costs. The price of gas will double in eastern states – if it is available.

    Our third tidal wave is the rise in retail shift allowances and penalty rates, which will slash employment in our second largest employment industry.

    Our fourth wave is the proposed public service reductions.

    Festering the Coalition for decades is the deep belief that the motor industry should be shut, given that the only way in can be competitive when the Australian dollar is above 80 to 85 US cents is government subsidies.

    …in 2013 it becomes a fifth tidal wave equal in power to both mining investment and retail. And the motor industry tidal wave hits Australia at the same time as the other four.

    But we have a majority in cabinet that believe, with a passion, that 2016 is just the time to hit the economy, that Australia needs to be taught a lesson and the labour force requires a good cleansing. So as a deliberate policy they are determined to abandon the previous government’s deal to save the motor industry at least until 2022.

    So in 2015 and 2016 we will see at least 350,000 jobs lost in mining investment, motor, retail and the public service. My guess it that job losses will go close to 500,000.

    …Ian Macfarlane, fully understands the implications of the five tidal waves and is working feverishly to stop cabinet’s motor carnage coming at the same time as the other blows.

    But clearly the more cavalier cabinet members can see the chance to shut down the industry and do not care about the timing or any other consequences.

    Because most of the myriad of companies involved in the motor industry will not be able to pay retrenchment, the decision to shut down motor will cost the government more than $1 billion. Then add that to that the economic costs of the other four tidal waves.

    I think Tony Abbott could have been a really great Australian prime minister but Australia has never before seen a prime minister act this way towards employment.

    It is good to see Bill Shorten will mix with world leaders at the Nelson Mandela memorial service.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/9/economy/australias-five-tidal-waves-unemployment

    by dave on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:47 pm

  9. rua

    Every economic indicator has been worse under Abbott.

    More unemployment to come when GMH start to clean out the office.

    All this government is concerned about is their commission of audit to slug the people most in need.

    Is it wise to weaken the power of spending with a slowing economy.

    Ideology from government doesn’t cut it anymore and we are all the poorer for it!

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:49 pm

  10. Coalition set for clean sweep.

    How bloody depressment

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-set-for-clean-sweep-as-year-of-elections-begins-20140116-30x5i.html

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:49 pm

  11. dave

    We are looking at 70 per cent size reductions in a countless number of contractors. Many will disappear.

    After seeing how many people are on site before and after the construction phase I’ve been looking forward to the inevitable comeuppance of CUB’s.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:53 pm

  12. There’s no question there is a recession risk at the moment, and what the government does will have a big impact.

    And if the LNP do end up wearing a recession – particularly if it’s more than 6 months since the ALP left office – then they will wear the blame for the first recession in 22 years or whatever it is.

    They won’t recover from that if it happens.

    On the flip side if confidence magically recovers (the budget lift!) and the economy puts on some solid growth numbers, helping bring the budget back to surplus, they will be feted as geniuses and will reign for 3 or 4 terms.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 6:59 pm

  13. victoria

    Not so long ago the highest elected Liberal was the Mayor of Brisvegas. Things change quickly.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:00 pm

  14. Jackol

    What really matters is the global economy. If it recovers then all will be good . Recessions and booms are claimed + blamed by/on local treasurers but it is the global situation which matters more.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:03 pm

  15. Reasonable chance the tories will lose government in Victoria.

    by dave on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:04 pm

  16. poroti

    The global economy is recovering.

    The truth is that you can’t make decisions to disallow important foreign investment into the country that send the wrong signal, effectively demise (words of an institutional dealer not mine) the car manufacturing industry, get offside with your trading partners and not expect it to have any effect on the economy and the wealth of all Australians.

    We are going backwards, NZ is braining us, they’re facts that are real.

    Also the LNP don’t have the foggiest of what to do with Qantas!

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:11 pm

  17. poroti – of course the global economy has a significant impact, but local cyclical factors are probably more important.

    Normally different countries find themselves at different points in the cycle (and this is generally a good thing for global economic stability). Certainly the aggregate world economy is supposed to be on a sluggish upswing at the moment, but even if that continues it won’t be decisive in keeping us out of recession.

    Global crises (eg GFC, oil shocks of the 70s, great depression/world war) do tend to ‘sync up’ economies, but many different factors drive each economy in different directions over time.

    Australia not quite falling into recession during the GFC or Asian crises is a good example.

    The external factor that will most determine whether we go into recession is probably the exchange rate. If the AUD is allowed to fall significantly, as it did in the early stages of the GFC, then we’ll be fine. If China holds up and the forex numpties keep buying AUD because of that, then we’ll be in trouble.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:13 pm

  18. If the AUD is allowed to fall significantly, as it did in the early stages of the GFC, then we’ll be fine.

    Fine if you like inflation and petrol at $2 a litre plus. The high A$ exported our inflation and kept consumer goods cheap (in fact all imported goods). This is over.

    Poor Tony.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:22 pm

  19. Coalition set for clean sweep.

    How bloody depressment

    The Tasmanian and SA governments are very long serving though. The it’s time factor must be strong.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:22 pm

  20. jackol @ 366 good post.

    But I don’t know about the falling dollar saving us from a recession. Petrol prices are going to fair dinkum explode if the dollar falls heavily.

    Personally, I don’t think we will fall into recession but some of our states will.

    I think the HUGE factor to watch is the way the RBA assesses our economy and the global economy (micro/macro factors) AND their long term outlook for interest rates.

    I think rates will most likely be kept on hold until at least September.

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:23 pm

  21. Petrol prices are going to fair dinkum explode if the dollar falls heavily.

    Top story on local TV news tonight. Petrol up by 20c a litre overnight.

    If only Howard had continued with petrol indexing, we would be paying $3 a litre and not complaining.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:25 pm

  22. rua

    Correct.

    And with rising inflation, the RBA can’t lower rates if we experience a slow down.

    Monkey at the wheel – god help us :shock:

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:25 pm

  23. No question petrol will get very expensive and that will be a big problem for the LNP.

    As you say, poor Tony. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving polly.

    by Jackol on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:25 pm

  24. Another shocking and horrific decision from Abbott is not to complete the FTTH NBN.

    For heavens sake, it’s a public asset with the potential to increase SUBSTANTIALLY in value.

    How can it’s value be realised if it’s incomplete?

    Murdoch is happy but the LNP are a disaster for the wealth of all other Australians.

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:38 pm

  25. 51° mid north SA not a bad effort
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=636021873123609&set=a.378053492253783.82902.374558949269904&type=1

    by paaptsef on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:43 pm

  26. If only Howard had continued with petrol indexing, we would be paying $3 a litre and not complaining.

    Howard didn’t know the Tampa was on its way.

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:43 pm

  27. Murdoch is happy but because the LNP are a disaster for the wealth of all other Australians.

    Minor correction.

    by Player One on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:45 pm

  28. Friday morning a bit problematical in Canberra.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:50 pm

  29. CTar1

    In case you missed it over the road. One of your former neighbours “in the prestigious Barbican estate” hit the news today.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/former-num-leader-arthur-scargill-tried-to-buy-london-flat-under-margaret-thatchers-righttobuy-scheme-9061392.html

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:56 pm

  30. poroti

    Anything can happen in the Shakespeare Tower. Arthur is one of them.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 7:59 pm

  31. Petrol prices are much lower than they were in 2008

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:00 pm

  32. Shut up idiot tism

    http://www.oesr.qld.gov.au/products/tables/petrol-avg-retail-price-type-bris/index.php

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:09 pm

  33. Sean – Two thing are true.

    Petrol prices will go up no matter what the Govt does.

    And you’ll still be a Turkey.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:11 pm

  34. Shut up idiot tism

    Grow a brain dumb wanker

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/fuel-subsidy-scrapped-20090602-bthm.html

    And once you’ve added the 9.2 Cents(+GST) to the pre-June 2009 price, then take into account inflation and discover you are a rolled gold moron.

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:16 pm

  35. For Tism edumacation.

    Back in June 2008, petrol prices nudged $1.60 a litre in Melbourne before the crude oil price fell 71.73% from its peak. The knock-on effect didn’t take long. By November, petrol prices had dropped to $1.15.

    The good ol cherry pick

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:17 pm

  36. What has the illegal Federal Govt excise got to do with the price of petrol?

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:20 pm

  37. Hasn’t inflation averaged only around 2 % since 2009 ?
    If so Seans rubbery figures seem rather overstated.

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:21 pm

  38. The good ol cherry pick

    Yes, one of top half dozen tools of the intellectually dishonest used to delude the gullible and provide succor to the fan boys. Sean however is one of those rare types that is both a gullible idiot, and thinks everyone else is.

    by cud chewer on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:22 pm

  39. Of course, when I were a Lad, inflation always seemed to nudge around 10%.
    When I were a Lad, John Howard was Treasurer.

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:23 pm

  40. Tisme

    Petrol was much cheaper under treasurer Howard back in 82 and 83 than under Gillard and Rudd in 2012 and 2013.

    Pity the economy was totally fuacked though then as well!

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:24 pm

  41. Ruawake… you make this way way too easy to prove your lies wrong some times

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sydney-petrol-prices-skyrocket/2008/07/09/1215282927997.html

    July 10, 2008
    The price of petrol has skyrocketed to record highs overnight, with some Sydney service stations selling unleaded fuel for 173.9 cents a litre.

    The high bowser prices this morning come as world oil prices, which had been falling steeply earlier this week, plateaued after reports of an Iranian missile test.

    The price of 173.9 cents a litre - recorded at petrol stations on the lower north shore - is more than 15 cents higher than yesterday's average bowser price in Sydney, which the NRMA recorded at 158 cents a litre.

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:25 pm

  42. Another shocking and horrific decision from Abbott is not to complete the FTTH NBN.

    For heavens sake, it’s a public asset with the potential to increase SUBSTANTIALLY in value.

    How can it’s value be realised if it’s incomplete?

    Murdoch is happy but the LNP are a disaster for the wealth of all other Australians.

    It is deliberate economic vandalism. I honestly (and stupidly) thought Turnbull would do the right thing if elected.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:25 pm

  43. yes Bob

    The Tories dont like to talk about that golden age and if they do they blame Fraser of not letting JWH have a free hand running the economy.

    by rossmcg on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:26 pm

  44. There always is an excuse with those folk, isn’t there Rossmcg

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:27 pm

  45. It is deliberate economic vandalism. I honestly (and stupidly) thought Turnbull would do the right thing if elected.

    Not me. He is as ideological as the rest of them, he just does a better job of hiding it.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:28 pm

  46. Ruawake… you make this way way too easy to prove your lies wrong some times

    You do realise you are proving my point.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:29 pm

  47. Quoted from a post above: “Shut up idiot tism
    Grow a brain dumb wanker”

    Perhaps we should raise the tone.

    As I remember, petrol prices escalated rapidly to $1.50+ per litre just before the GFC, crashed to about $1.00 shortly after and have resumed their inexorable upward track, accelerated by the recent decline in the $A to be now back to the $1.50s. $2 can’t be far behind. Let ‘s blame Abbott. I know it’s not his fault but accuracy has never been one of his concerns when allocating blame and avoiding responsibility.

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:30 pm

  48. WWP

    Turnbull is chicken of Murdoch!

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:30 pm

  49. Turnbull knows that AGW is on. Yet he belongs to a Government run by AGW deniers.

    He should resign.

    There is absolutely nothing more to say about him.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:32 pm

  50. Tisme wants to go back and live in the economy controlled by Treasurer Howard back in 1982/83 exactly 30 years before Gillard and Rudd in 2012/13.

    Sheezus Tism, why don’t you loosen your nickers, they’re restricting oxygen to your brain.

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:34 pm

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