Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. What has the illegal Federal Govt excise got to do with the price of petrol?

    Your not the sharpest tool in the shed sometimes Ruawake.

    In 2009 Labors Anna Bligh scrapped the long standing QLD fuel excise subsidy. Heres the background on why the subsidy existed for QLD motorists:
    https://www.osr.qld.gov.au/historical-information/revenue-history-timeline/fuel-subsidy-act-1997.shtml

    Now what you failed to take into account with your Brisbane fuel price list that you supplied is that QLD’s fuel price was around ~10 Cents cheaper then other Eastern States due to the subsidy which Labor scrapped, forcing up the prices for QLD drivers.

    Hence your pre-July 2009 prices are lower only because QLD was the cheapest state in the Commonwealth to buy petrol before Labor pushed up the prices here in July 2009.

    by Sean Tisme on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:38 pm

  2. Tism

    If a barrel of tapis crude costs less than it did in Oct, why has petrol gone up by 20c a litre under Abbott.

    I hope you can explain. Cos nobody else has a clue why he is letting oil companies get away with it.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:38 pm

  3. poroti

    Bret Emmerton calling it a day.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:43 pm

  4. WTF?

    A lawyer for two police officers says the court cannot rule out the possibility that a man was screaming with joy when he was being repeatedly tasered at the Perth Watch House more than five years ago.

    Aaron Strahan and Troy Tomlin are on trial accused of assaulting Kevin Spratt by repeatedly tasering him in August 2008.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/lawyer-for-police-argues-against-evidence/5203772?section=wa

    Yeah right. We’ve all seen the video footage from back then, and he sure looked like he was loving every minute of the torture meted out to him.

    Lawyers FFS.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:44 pm

  5. The lawyer would be much, much more convincing if they gave him an opportunity to scream with joy while being tasered.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:47 pm

  6. There was never a fuel subsidy, I have raved on about this for years. (search PB in 2009).

    Howard imposed a fuel tax on Qld against the will of the Govt. He had to collect the money due to the illegal actions of NSW and Victoria in raising State Fuel excise.

    It eventually became a situation where Qld petrol prices were the same as NSW without a subsidy, the Govt was giving money directly to the Oil companies.

    I note the LNP has never considered giving the money to Shell and Caltex after the election.

    Plus when talking about 2008 prices, why introduce 2009 prices?

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:47 pm

  7. Boerwar:

    To have one of their own invoking the tasering equivalent of ‘she was asking for it’ must surely represent a low point for the legal industry as a collective?

    At least I would hope so.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:49 pm

  8. I would love to give people comparative petrol prices for 2008 by suburb but the Liberals and others blocked it in The Senate.

    by ruawake on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:50 pm

  9. confessions@403

    WTF?


    A lawyer for two police officers says the court cannot rule out the possibility that a man was screaming with joy when he was being repeatedly tasered at the Perth Watch House more than five years ago.

    Aaron Strahan and Troy Tomlin are on trial accused of assaulting Kevin Spratt by repeatedly tasering him in August 2008.


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/lawyer-for-police-argues-against-evidence/5203772?section=wa

    Yeah right. We’ve all seen the video footage from back then, and he sure looked like he was loving every minute of the torture meted out to him.

    Lawyers FFS.

    The lawyer should be asked to prove it by experiencing the joy of being tasered in court. :evil:

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 8:52 pm

  10. The Joy of Tasering.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:00 pm

  11. DN PB’ers are pussycats compared to other forums I have been so no chance of being bullied ;)

    by davidwh on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:00 pm

  12. The US Navy has only ever had one ship named after a foreign capital.

    And the name of that ship was:

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:01 pm

  13. Ru,

    Where was the Dollar in October compared to now?

    by Greensborough Growler on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:06 pm

  14. USS Canberra

    by Rossmore on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:08 pm

  15. R
    correct.

    by Boerwar on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:09 pm

  16. Davidwh

    aint that the truth ;)

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:09 pm

  17. Boerwar

    Defence counsel are in a class of their own when if comes to making excuses for their clients. It’s a wonder she ( I am pretty sure it’s a she) didn’t blame the carbon price.

    by rossmcg on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:13 pm

  18. Boerwar 411

    Would think USS Tripoli

    by Schnappi on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:14 pm

  19. We’re not trying hard enough then!

    *bullies david*

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:15 pm

  20. It’s a wonder she ( I am pretty sure it’s a she)

    A woman came out with that?

    FMD!

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:18 pm

  21. The lawyer should be asked to prove it by experiencing the joy of being tasered in court. :evil:

    There are websites she could use …

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:18 pm

  22. There are websites she could use …

    Or so they tell me…

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:19 pm

  23. Rossmore

    USS Canberra

    A long time ago.

    by CTar1 on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:21 pm

  24. Greetings from Rangoon, Bludgers, the city where mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun. Sadly I can’t afford to stay at the Strand, where Noel Coward stayed. Noel would easily recognise Rangoon, since nothing new has been built since the British left – although that is starting to change now that sanctions have been eased and some money is starting to flow in. Fifty years of socialism have left this city and the whole country a bankrupt ruin, but the people now are full of hope. Aung San Suu Kyi’s face is everywhere and if the regime lets her run for president next year she will win 90% of the vote. If they don’t, the country will lapse back into dictatorship and isolation, but the Burmese seem very optimistic that real change is coming soon.

    by Psephos on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:22 pm

  25. From the Guardian:

    ” The chief inspector of prisons has accused the privately run immigration detention centre at Heathrow of a shocking loss of humanity after a terminally ill Canadian man was kept in handcuffs as he died in hospital.

    Staff ignored a doctor’s report declaring the 84-year-old unfit for detention or deportation and in need of social care.

    The chief inspector, Nick Hardwick, said that on at least two occasions staff at the Geo-run Harmondsworth immigration removal centre have needlessly handcuffed elderly, vulnerable and incapacitated detainees in what he called “an excessive and shocking manner”. He said that the two men were so ill that one died shortly after his handcuffs were removed and the other, the 84-year-old, who has been named as Alois Dvorzac, died while still restrained.”

    Now we know where the people in charge of detention in Australia get their ideas.

    by rossmcg on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:25 pm

  26. WeWantPaul@391

    It is deliberate economic vandalism. I honestly (and stupidly) thought Turnbull would do the right thing if elected.

    Me too. I am very, very disappointed with Turnbull. I expected better.

    by don on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:25 pm

  27. Headlines in tomorrow’s The Age….

    Hundreds of Victorians will die as a result of this week’s heatwave, a leading climate researcher predicts.
    Heat hits trains and trams
    Beaches off limits for swimmers
    More than 1000 tennis fans treated
    Fires threaten several towns
    Homeless chased from cool spots

    Sad to say that it’s only these types of headlines that will get CC back on the agenda and a striking indicator of our failed political leadership. The silence of the LNP politicians in not drawing a link to CC is just disgusting.

    by Rossmore on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:26 pm

  28. It’s raining here. I’ve had to shut the windows and put a jumper on as it’s a bit nippy.

    Looking forward to autumn when we get those sunny, still days and chilly nights. My favourite time of the year here.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:26 pm

  29. Confessions

    yep!

    Police Union lawyer Karen Vernon was this morning unwilling to concede CCTV footage of the incident depicted Mr Spratt crying out in pain, saying “I cannot say whether it was in joy or laughter”.

    by rossmcg on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:30 pm

  30. Rossmore@413

    USS Canberra

    There is a little place in the Oltenia region of Romania called Canberra, supposedly because it sounds romantic and far away and the ends of the earth.

    by don on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:31 pm

  31. “The world must act to combat global warming and we must participate in that action.

    Abbott = HUGE Fail!”

    Why is that carbon tax not working? It’s disgraceful. We were promised the world’s temperatures would come down!

    by prettyone on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:37 pm

  32. CTar1

    poroti

    Bret Emmerton calling it a day.

    You have a laser like ability to spot sport peasants I rooly could not care less about :lol:

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:39 pm

  33. PO Physics isn’t your strong point, is it ?

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:43 pm

  34. There is a very interesting movie that I saw at the cinemas that is about to be released on DVD, Bludgers.

    It stars Jodie Foster and it combines two political issues of climate change and boat people, or in this case flight people – the movie being a sci fi.

    The earth gets so polluted from global warming in the future that the filthy rich build a heavenly space station for themselves outside the earth’s atmosphere.

    Those, that are not rich enough that are left on the earth to live in misery in oppressive conditions, risk their lives to gain access into the heavenly space station – called Elysium.

    Well, that’s what I could make of the movie given that I was constantly distracted by Jodie oolala :twisted:

    Bludgers check it out if you can :)

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:44 pm

  35. prettyone, there are several scenarios
    a) reverse the trend
    b) stop the trend
    c) slow the trend
    d) do nothing

    The most likely looks like (c). So no, temperatures are not going to fall.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:44 pm

  36. rossmcg:

    Words fail.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:47 pm

  37. rossmcg:

    Words fail.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:47 pm

  38. On twitter

    So I wonder when the LNP Govt. might start getting worried about the impact of climage change on productivity...

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:48 pm

  39. The other side of weird weather shit that comes from global warming. Fcuking cold even for sheepens.

    Cold front hitting NZ 'like a freight train'

    The front was dredging up cold Antarctic air from well south of New Zealand

    For parts of coastal Southland and Otago, the highs would reach a mere 11C to 13C degrees tomorrow.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11187656

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:49 pm

  40. “The most likely looks like (c). So no, temperatures are not going to fall.”

    So why do we have to have increased power bills if there’s no payoff with cooler temperatures?

    by prettyone on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:56 pm

  41. poroti:

    As I’ve observed previously, AGW simply means the extremes become the new normal.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 9:59 pm

  42. “As I’ve observed previously, AGW simply means the extremes become the new normal.”

    So what’s the point of a carbon tax?

    by prettyone on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:00 pm

  43. In breaking news the Government has released an apology for the mistype in their employment election policy.

    Abbott meant to say he would cremate 1 Million jobs.

    by Greensborough Growler on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:01 pm

  44. Psephos,

    Great post.

    I’ve always been a huge fan of Aung San Suu Kyi. Her courage just blows me away.

    What are you doing there?

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:01 pm

  45. confessions

    More extremes both hot and cold have always been part of the equation.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:02 pm

  46. So why do we have to have increased power bills if there’s no payoff with cooler temperatures?

    Oh I don’t know….
    Perhaps it’s so our children can enjoy bearable temperatures into the future.

    Sheesh, what a dumb question to ask

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:03 pm

  47. It’s a bit sad of Ms Giddings to sack two apparently effective ministers to win an election.

    I’ve got no interest in Greens, though, apart from the days when it may have been about environmental factors and saving endangered species and protecting the waterways.

    Trying to scrap the Lord’s Prayer though shows they have a different agenda and it’s not much to do with the environment.

    by prettyone on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:03 pm

  48. poroti:

    Indeed.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:04 pm

  49. Has PB done any Greensborough Growler / PUP jokes?

    Surely you guys have exploited that irresistible comic opportunity?

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:05 pm

  50. “Sheesh, what a dumb question to ask”

    I’m positive Bob Brown and Ms Gillard said the temperatures would decrease with a carbon tax.

    by prettyone on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:05 pm

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