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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 16, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The Track is back – but with only two new poll results to go on, and no sign so far of any change since before the break.

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With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2049 comments

2,049 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

  1. Otiose

    04:59:00 16/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol NB Pique of the Week

  2. Al Dente

    When the government of the day can’t even get a poll bump out of a 5-0 Ashes win…

  3. Socrates

    When the Prime minister of the fay enters the commentary box during one of our greatest cricket triumphs, and can’t stop talking about himself, he doesn’t deserve a bounce. It showed how desperate he is, and how self centred.

  4. William Bowe

    [When the Prime minister of the fay enters the commentary box during one of our greatest cricket triumphs, and can’t stop talking about himself, he doesn’t deserve a bounce.]

    Not even the Harold Larwood variety?

  5. Socrates

    William

    Indeed, Abbott may have made far more people happier had he taken to the nets like that english journo against Brett Lee. Lee could then have given him the appropriate bounce.

  6. Socrates

    Vry hot in Adelaide overnight, causing me to wake up early. It was just over 30 degrees at 6 AM, on the way to a forecast 46, equalling the all time record. Is climate change crap, Mr Abbott?

  7. Otiose

    Socrates

    Especially given his alternate understanding of the term ‘box’ 😉

  8. Socrates

    BTW William, I hope you are finishing your PhD. I think there is a career in psephology for you. The number of people who understand the stats and electoral process, and can comment on them intelligently and impartially, is not so high.

  9. Socrates

    Otiose

    Yes, then we would all be hoping for good length deliveries on middle stump 🙂

    Like most bullies, I suspect Abbott is too much of a coward to go out in the middle. That takes actual courage.

  10. shellbell

    The Qld AG is really saying he did everything to keep Fardon in jail notwithstanding no power to do so.

    That is when the AG has taken the dark path from most senior legal officer to an ordinary politician.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-15/qld-abandons-high-court-appeal-over-sex-offenders/5202298

  11. Carey Moore

    Be absolutely careful today, Socrates and other SA bludgers. If it reaches the forecast temp today, it’s going to be very bad.

    Also, make sure any pets are well sheltered and have easy access to plenty of cool, clean water. It’s only just short of 6:30 and my cats already look out of it.

    (Same sentiment applies to other heat wave affected parts of the country)

  12. lizzie

    Good morning, heated ones.

    A wonderful 23 deg here with a cool breeze, so I’ve opened up all doors and windows, fed the chooks and am about to bunker down.

    Meanwhile, I took my OH to hospital last night (bronchial infection) so at least he’ll be in a cool place for a few days. Why do so many medical crises happen when the specialists are all on hols??

    And my dear almost blind mother has tipped out all the week’s recycled stuff in the carport to find some birdseed she ‘accidentally’ threw away. I left her to it – makes her cross if I ‘interfere’. 🙂

  13. Steve777

    Re Socrates @6 – Tony Abbott and his cheer squad would say that’s just the normal variation in the weather, records are broken sometimes, blah blah blah.

    On the other hand, had the temperature been 10 degrees this morning on the way to a forecast 18, equalling a cold January record, that would be ‘proof’ that Climate Change is not happening.

  14. Fran Barlow

    William

    [Indeed, Abbott may have made far more people happier had he taken to the nets like that english journo against Brett Lee. Lee could then have given him the appropriate bounce.]

    Lee is apparently a fan of Abbott these days.

  15. CTar1

    lizzie – all the best.

  16. lizzie

    CTar1

    Thanks. I’m torn between tears and laughter at the moment. A diary of all the things that go awry in this household might be amusing, but I don’t have the energy.

    And here’s an excellent crit of Pyne’s rubbish.
    [Since federal Education Minister Christopher Pyne’s launch last week of a two-man curriculum review panel, of conservative educationist Kevin Donnelly and conservatively inclined business academic Kenneth Wiltshire, levels of incredulity, derision and cynicism among educators and political commentators (outside News Corp media) have gone off the Richter scale.

    Pyne might as well have announced he was rearranging the communal henhouse by shoving two foxes through its front door. The curriculum history wars, part of the bigger culture wars that have been blighting the Australian cultural and political landscape for more than a decade, were on again.

    The history wars are an invention of the political right which sees hidden ”cultural-leftist” influence at every turn in the government school curriculum, a chimera supported in particular by News Corp’s broadsheet The Australian.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/where-pyne-and-the-neocons-went-wrong-20140115-30v1u.html#ixzz2qV3CwnQB

  17. Socrates

    Carey

    Thanks and agreed. We keep the cats inside and they have plenty of water. I work in an air conditioned building.

    The 6am temperature was the overnight minimum in Adelaide. It did not get below 30 C. The temperature was still 35 C at 2am. This will kill quite a few frail people. The entire week has been unrelenting.

    See Adelaide hour by hour temp here:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60901/IDS60901.94675.shtml

  18. Socrates

    Fran 17

    Sorry to hear that about Lee. Could Mitch Johnson have sent a few down against Abbott? He is a leftie 🙂

  19. CTar1

    lizzie,

    Pyne is about as full as as it comes.

    Keep your end up and try not to drive around too much.

  20. BK

    And from the Land of the Free –

    Weekly upchuck roundup.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/14/upchuckin-away-chuck-the-most-shocking-religion-news-of-the-last-week/
    Brit Hume of FoxNews has a bromance with Chris Christie.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/14/brit-hume-admits-gay-bromance-with-chris-christie/
    How the Repugs have used dog whistles to help wreck the middle class.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/dog-whistle-politics-how-use-coded-racial
    Rush Limbaugh – Christians cannot believe in AGW. One must be agnostic or atheistic to do so. FFS!!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/dog-whistle-politics-how-use-coded-racial
    Jon Stewart really take the piss out of a new FoxNews program, “The Five”.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017169557
    The Vatican to undergo some significant scrutiny from the UN regarding sexual abuse.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/15/vatican-sex-abuse_n_4601167.html

  21. cud chewer

    There’s a fairly obvious response to this tactic. Escorting boats back requires a lot of resources. It ties up at least one navy vessel for days.

    Its only a matter of time before the smugglers figure out the best tactic is an old war time one. Organise a floatilla/convoy.

    50 boats all turning up at once. The navy would not have the resources. Most if not nearly all of them would succeed.

  22. deblonay

    Apology forced fom Israel after a MinisterS venomous attack on John Kerry and Obama ____________\_______

    Arrogance leads Israel minister into a savage attack he will regret and a demand for an Apology from the USA

    Arrogance and extremism…that’s the Israelis genuine brand and the US is crapped off
    http://www.juancole.com/2014/01/messianic-palestinian-obsession.html

  23. don

    BK@13

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    As I said yesterday, they are going further and further down the hole.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-from-indonesia-20140115-30vds.html

    Thank as always BK.

    What I can’t understand is why the AS did not scuttle the boat, forcing the navy to rescue them.

    This scenario has been discussed on PB before as the reason that turning back the boats won’t work – yet it appears to be working fine, at least so far as getting the boats headed back to Indonesia is concerned.

  24. lizzie

    don

    On the morning news, Indonesia not at all happy with newest developments.

  25. Socrates

    Cud 24

    You are dead right. The visual horizon for a ship at sea is under 20 nautical miles, radar maybe 30. The area we patrol is over 1000 nautical miles. We would need 40 ships. We have less than two dozen ships, and they have to be rotated for servicing. At night there is no chance we could stop them all.

  26. poroti

    A headline which for some reason tickles my funny bone.

    [Archduke Franz Ferdinand descendant: don’t blame us for first world war]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/15/archduke-franz-ferdinand-first-world-war

  27. Socrates

    This piece quotes several economists disputing the justification or the Federal governments Audit commission. In real terms the federal public service is smaller now than when Zhoward took office in 1996.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/economists-dispute-audit-commissions-federal-government-growth-claims-20140115-30v9o.html

    Have a good day all. Stay cool.

  28. zoomster

    Carey

    my cat seems to be doing a ‘places you never guessed were cool’ tour of the house.

    Yesterday, it was behind the garbage bin in the kitchen. The day before, it was the saucepan cupboard under the sink.

    On a more serious note, having put a sprinkler hose in one chicken enclosure and regularly thrown buckets of water in to cool down the ground in the other, I forgot all about providing water for the free – roaming birds — fortunately they’re good at hinting.

  29. Everything

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

    Obama has a positive approval rating in the latest Rasmussen poll.

    The first time in any poll since July it appears.

    Obamacare approval not doing as well: steady at about 40% approve, 55% disapprove

  30. BK

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/marty-natalegawa-says-australia27s-asylum-seeker-policy-a-27s/5202340
    It’s quite simple. Either a shot was fired or not. The Captain’s log must hold the answer.
    The only problem is the information conduit of the toy soldier and Morriscum. And where woulf this leave Hurley?

  31. guytaur

    Good Morning

    @smh: Taxpayers have allegedly been defrauded of tens of thousands of dollars by a recently retired Liberal MP. http://t.co/WCnMVa5omo

    “@jonathanvswan: I’m sure the Australian Federal Police will be eager to see the evidence of Mrs Somlyay/Donovan’s 870 hours work between July & December.”

    Everything

    Presdent Obama has just had a huge win

    @nytimes: Breaking News: House Passes $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill and Sends It to Senate
    http://t.co/eqDfdEsmLj

  32. guytaur

    “@bevvo14: Tassie election expected tobe called today @BreakfastNews @ABCNews24”

    Rumoured to be March 15 the same day as South Australia

  33. lizzie

    I hope that all the global warming do-nothings are having a very, very bad day.

    In USA, special provisions are made during heatwaves. I’m not aware that the Vic Gov has thought about protecting the homeless.

  34. Carey Moore

    [Rumoured to be March 15 the same day as South Australia]

    I certainly hope not. Get your own day, Tasmania!

  35. lizzie

    China. A 60km long traffic jam. The Nirvana of conservative pollies?

    [Anthony Scott ‏
    This is what happens if you keep building roads & don’t put money into public transport infrastructure.
    #auspol
    pic.twitter.com/8NRuzP0OKt ]

  36. confessions

    Morning all.

    Thanks for the links BK. Thoughts are with those in horrendously hot parts of the country.

  37. Carey Moore

    Zoomster, it sounds just like my cats. Very creative.

    And good on you for caring about the local bird population’s hydration.

  38. confessions

    Two state elections on the one day would make a very busy night for William!

  39. shellbell

    Weren’t there 2 state elections on same day in March 2009? qld and?

  40. fredex

    If it reaches the forecast temp today, it’s going to be very bad.]

    Our forecast is for ‘high 40s’ and given we are usually a coupla degrees above that its possible we’ll hit 50.
    Hope not.
    We have been up since before sunrise walking the dogs who otherwise get bored with being housebound.
    Filled the bird baths with water, they are showing their appreciation, and now we’re inside a closed up house with the temperature under the front verandah already at 33.
    Bad day ahead.

  41. poroti

    Good luck to all the resident crow eaters.

    [. . . and you thought yesterday was a scorcher

    BLISTERING heat in South Australia is threatening to break records, with the fourth day in one of the worst ever heatwaves in the state bringing temperatures of up to 48C. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/and-you-thought-yesterday-was-a-scorcher/story-e6frg6nf-1226802737139

  42. Carey Moore

    Tweet made by SA Premier Jay Weatherill last night:

    [@JayWeatherill: If you’re out and need somewhere to escape from the heat, you’re welcome to step into the foyer of any SA Government building & cool down]

  43. guytaur

    It is good to see the sense shon by the PB folk on heatwave precautions. Hopefully this is a sample of typical behaviour making deaths of people and animals as minimal as possible.

    I have an additional piece of advice for those without air conditioning on this exceptional day. A good day to go to the cinema and watch a couple of movies in air conditioned comfort if you are close enough to do so and animals ok to be left alone. Alternatively visit a friend who has air conditioning.

    Good luck to all.

  44. zoomster

    Don’t worry, folks – global warming is just part of the natural cycle (ordained by God and thus not subject to causation).

    A few thousand years after we’ve gone extinct, the climate will cool again.

    (Totally true – if we go extinct, it will).

  45. guytaur

    @Tim_Morris14: Sunrise over the hottest city on earth today #adelaideheatwave @sunriseon7 @7NewsAdelaide @Y7News http://t.co/jugEAdD98X

  46. Steve777

    Sydney’s missing out on all this heat so far and looks likely to escape this heat wave. For the last few days it’s been brilliant blue skies and cicadas, maxing out in the high 20’s with high humidity near the coast, 30 to 33 away from the Harbour and the beaches but getting into the high 30’s in the outer Western suburbs where all those key voters who worry about ‘boats’ live.

  47. guytaur

    @Leroy_Lynch: Australian heatwaves more frequent, hotter and longer: Climate Council report http://t.co/JMCtqxkZKV #climatechange

  48. Steve777

    Guytar @46 – or maybe just go to the local shopping Mall if there’s one nearby.

  49. confessions

    We’re not getting any heat either thank heavens. I loathe the heat.

  50. guytaur

    @wikileaks: The Scourge of Secrecy: Evidence from the TPP Environment Chapter
    https://t.co/Ncwljpvpk3

  51. zoomster

    The Coalition was careful not to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs during the term of the last government by opposing action which might have stopped the boats.

    So is it in their best interests now to do so?

    If they ‘Stop the Boats’, then in a couple of years time, fear of boats will have subsided and the focus for the issue – if there is any at all – will shift once again to the treatment of detainees.

    Without ‘the boats’ to distract them (and ‘boat people’ to blame for taking their jobs, causing traffic jams, forcing Coles to sell halal meat, stealing disabled parking places and whatever other Bad Thing boat-detesters have experienced this week) people are going to be looking – and journalists reporting – on other matters to do with the government’s performance.

  52. poroti

    A blast from boats past.

    [Sri Lankan refugee Nimal is coming to Australia. This may not seem a newsworthy event, except that, in 2009 and 2010 this man played a leading role in one of the most extraordinary events in the annals of asylum-seeking.

    Nimal was one of a group of 254 Tamil asylum seekers heading to Australia by boat when then prime minister Kevin Rudd, alarmed at a sharp rise in arrivals, phoned Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to ask a favour. Dr Yudhoyono deployed his navy, which brought the little boat back to the West Java port of Merak]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/nimals-long-journey-to-australia-has-an-ending-at-last-20140115-30vaf.html

  53. confessions

    [The State Government has failed to introduce key recommendations stemming from the Keelty inquiry into the 2011 Kelmscott-Roleystone fire that destroyed 71 homes, including tougher planning laws and fire mitigation strategies, the former president of the Emergency Services Volunteers Association says.

    In the wake of another destructive blaze, John Iffla said he was frustrated that necessary changes had not been implemented to reduce the risk in bushfire-prone areas.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/20787259/major-points-of-keelty-inquiry-not-acted-on/

  54. guytaur

    BK

    At least in SA the homeless can shelter in government building foyers thanks to Labor.

    True concern for the people

  55. victoria

    Morning all

    Twitterfeed of Jonathan Swan fairfax journo. Interesting

    [In my next tweets I’m going to post scans of documents showing former Liberal MP Alex Somlyay’s wife’s very curious employment arrangements.]

    https://mobile.twitter.com/jonathanvswan

  56. victoria

    [A tiny drawing of a kangaroo curled in the letters of a 16th-century Portuguese manuscript could rewrite Australian history.
    The document, acquired by Les Enluminures Gallery in New York, shows a sketch of an apparent kangaroo (”canguru” in Portuguese) nestled in its text and is dated between 1580 and 1620. It has led researchers to believe images of the marsupial were already being circulated by the time the Dutch ship Duyfken – long thought to have been the first European vessel to dock in Australia – landed in 1606.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/16thcentury-manuscript-could-rewrite-australian-history-20140115-30vak.html#ixzz2qVZOHJS2

  57. poroti

    victoria

    Odds on as the Portuguese were in Timor from the early 1500’s .

  58. victoria

    poroti

    Quite probable

  59. WeWantPaul

    [Don’t worry, folks – global warming is just part of the natural cycle (ordained by God and thus not subject to causation).

    A few thousand years after we’ve gone extinct, the climate will cool again.

    (Totally true – if we go extinct, it will).]

    I don’t know God may be planning to save two of each animal in an arc, or perhaps he is building a new planet for us somewhere!

  60. lizzie

    WWP

    No, that was George Bush, wasn’t it? Flight into space?

  61. poroti

    victoria

    Quite amazing to me that the Portuguese were trading sandalwood , spices etc with places as far away as Timor 500 years ago.

  62. Steve777

    Zoomster @54 – if asylum boat arrivals remain at very low levels through to the next election I expect that the Coalition will dial up the issue again, especially if there’s a lot of other stuff happening then that they don’t want to talk about.

    The Liberals will want to claim credit for ‘stopping the boats’ and loudly proclaim that they will keep them stopped. That the people of Western Sydney in particular have bigger things to worry about – unemployment, the cost of education and health care, climate change – all of which are made worse by the Liberals – will see the ‘boats’ issue get a big run.

    The dogwhistle has proved invaluable for the Liberals. They will want to use it at every opportunity.

  63. victoria

    poroti

    Humans are a resourceful bunch….

    There is so much about our history that is amazing

  64. guytaur

    We see Abbott’s true character today. No attempt to match SA Premier Wetherill on shelter from the heat in Federal Government Buildings.

  65. don

    zoomster@47

    Don’t worry, folks – global warming is just part of the natural cycle (ordained by God and thus not subject to causation).

    A few thousand years after we’ve gone extinct, the climate will cool again.

    (Totally true – if we go extinct, it will).

    My favourite quote along those lines is:

    ‘All pollution and global warming would cease if everyone on earth just held their breath for ten minutes.’

    :devil:

  66. victoria

    The Government is under pressure to explain reports the Australian Navy fired warning shots in a bid to force an asylum seeker boat back towards Indonesia.

    Fairfax media says an Australian vessel “shot into the air” during the interception of a boat full of asylum seekers within sight of Christmas Island.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/marty-natalegawa-says-australia27s-asylum-seeker-policy-a-27s/5202340

  67. lizzie

    guytaur

    Where is Abbott? Why do we keep hearing from the “Deputy PM”?
    Truss seems to be flashing in and out of the media like the Cheshire Cat.

  68. guytaur

    lizzie

    very good question. To me it says a PM not interested in governing. The reason I think most of Labor’s legacy will survive.

    As we know ven repeal of the carbon price is not certain.

  69. confessions

    Abbott is still on holidays I thought.

  70. confessions

    poroti:

    Will Abbott campaign in Griffith?

  71. shellbell

    The Federal Court in Adelaide is one of the best court buildings in Australia

  72. poroti

    confessions

    Not if the Libs think they’ll lose.

  73. lizzie

    fess

    But he was in Canberra for cricket 11? Or am I dreaming?
    Feels more as if the army is in charge atm.

  74. fredex

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/australian-heatwaves-getting-hotter-and-longer/5202272

    [“It is clear that climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and severe,” report co-author Professor Will Steffen said in a statement.
    “Heatwaves have become hotter and longer and they are starting earlier in the season.”]

    Dog help us, the denialists from the media and the government, and even here, will continue to deny.

  75. confessions

    lizzie:

    Truss is still being referred to as ‘acting prime minister’ so I’m assuming Abbott not back on deck yet.

  76. sprocket_

    Tony Abbott’s leave arrangements were over Xmas period where he went skiing in Switzerland – flying economy class which suprisingly “was noticed” – perhaps also a breif visit to a “health clinic”

    And also the week we are currently in, so Truzz acting. So the key questions are:

    1. Why did Abbott show up at the PM’s X1 game on Tuesday?
    2. What Abbott stunt will be “exclusivley revealed” in this weekends Murdoch press?

  77. Henry

    Pretty sure Abbott is back from leave as he has been doing his usual belly rub interviews with the RW shock jocks recently.
    I think he is adopting the small target approach.
    Suits me, the less i see and hear his his mumbling and bumbling the lower my blood pressure.

  78. guytaur

    In my inbox

    [On February 8, voters in Brisbane’s electorate of Griffith will go to the polls for a by-election. It’s going to be a close contest, and the whole country will be watching the outcome.

    Even more important is this: despite promising that Medicare was safe before the election, Tony Abbott’s government plans to charge Australians to see a bulk billing GP. Local Liberal candidate for Griffith – former AMA head, Bill Glasson – supports a tax on doctor visits and it could be policy as early as May.

    Want to put a stop to this Medicare attack before it goes any further, and send the Liberals a message they can’t miss? Click here to throw your support behind Medicare and Labor, and chip in to help the Griffith campaign right now.

    donate_red_ed.jpg

    Your donation will have a real impact – putting Save Medicare signs on major roads all across Griffith and distributing Save Medicare t-shirts to volunteers campaigning on the ground. It costs nearly $10 for every sign and $15 for every shirt that gets made.

    With your help, we’re hoping to order 500 signs as well as 400 shirts to show Australia what’s at stake nationwide, and to stop this insidious attack on Medicare before it goes any further.

    If we do nothing, we could soon see the foundations of our health system undermined. The most vulnerable Australians will be forced to pay to see a GP.

    If that happens, it would be the beginning of the end of Medicare as we know it. So we have to demonstrate that any threat to Medicare will cost the Abbott Government too much politically. Chip in now to send a message they can’t miss: take Medicare off the table.

    Thank you – this is important.

    Bill

    PS: We’ve got a great candidate in Griffith, Terri Butler. She believes in Medicare, in great public schools, hospitals, 21st century broadband, effective climate action and quality, affordable childcare. Right now the polls are incredibly tight, and we know Terri will be outspent by her Liberal opponent unless we help. Thanks for pitching in what you can today.]

  79. Tricot

    poroti@72

    And, I see from an ad in the West yesterday, that Shorten is coming over to Perth to address some kind of business forum.

    Clearly, the days of “We don’t want Gillard/Rudd here” or ‘youse is scared to come’ have passed by.

    It is a wonder we have not seen Wonder Man Abbott, Fire Fighter Extraordinary over here doing his gig as a quiet and unassuming volunteer – in the recent fires up in the hills.

  80. sprocket_

    [Griffith Qld ‏@GriffithElects 40m At least 9 parties plan to contest #Griffithvotes ALP, Greens, LNP, KAP, Secular, Population, Pirate, Family First, & one Indp @NoFibs]

  81. Acerbic Conehead

    William,

    [“It’s not easy and there’s ups and downs, no sick leave, no 4 week ARL, and Christmas time often brings dow time.
    It’s harder than you might think.” (prettyone)

    You don’t rock’n’roll for a living by any chance?]

    Probably Country and Western.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsWg0bt9kp4

  82. poroti

    Henry

    [Suits me, the less i see and hear his his mumbling and bumbling the lower my blood pressure.]
    Probably why he is keeping low. Their 2PP vote drops every time people hear him speaking 🙂

  83. Rossmore

    Continuing to get great enjoyment from Rachel Maddow’s coverage of Bridgegate …. this story will run and run and has dashed any hopes Governor Christie has of being the next Republican Presidential nominee ….

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show

  84. poroti

    Tricot

    Good to hear he is coming over. Abbott and the Emperor offer a real opportunity for Labor.

  85. Tricot

    Where’s Wally?

    According to Hockey, when you don’t see him, he is “Flat out running the country” don’t you know?

    His invisibility is part-manufactured (lowering the political heat after the election was a strategy straight out of the Malcolm Frazer book on managing the post-election period) and part deliberate avoidance of scrutiny.

    When even your propaganda sheets, such as the Murdoch press, admit that “Tony knows he is not popular” and says so quite openly, what options do you have?

    Very hard to be liked and even more difficult to be respected. Might as well just be as invisible as possible.

    Why should anyone be surprised? He and his supporters keep claiming they have a “mandate” but that does not include open and accountable government. Who thought it would?

  86. Sean Tisme

    The Australian people voted for Abbott and Morrison to stop the boats and turn them back to Indonesia and that’s exactly what they are doing as their mandate governs.

    Not sure why the left are complaining about Abbott keeping his election promised unlike the previous Rudd/Gillard/Rudd circus.

  87. guytaur

    “@All_Eskat: Abbott isn’t talking about repealing the carbon tax this week. It’s such a hot topic. #heatwave #auspol”

  88. MTBW

    ST

    I have asked this a number of times but have received no answer:

    How do you describe the left?

  89. guytaur

    ST

    Abbott showing his true character today. Hiding while the SA Premier acts.

  90. guytaur

    “@profsarahj: 1/2 There’s a War on peoplesmugglers, basically proxy for a war on asylumseekers. “War” footing used to justify opacity & exceptional powers”

    “@profsarahj: 2/2 which is such BS as, um, THIS IS NOT A WAR!”

  91. lizzie

    So having a pleasant chat on a right-wing radio station counts as part of a holiday?

  92. Carey Moore

    [How do you describe the left?]

    Relative to him, about 90% of the population.

  93. sprocket_

    Now which parts of this Bill Glasson campaign team photo have been doctored, and which haven’t?

    https://twitter.com/bustersdah/status/423590046059360257/photo/1/large

  94. lizzie

    My mother has just turned on her heater because she’s feeling cold. This is why you really do have to check the elderly on a hot (or a cold) day.

  95. guytaur

    “@mpesce: Almost all food crops of any sort will die after 7 continuous days of 40C. How many years from that is South Australia? Victoria? WA?”

  96. Steve777

    Bill Shorten’s latest email indicates that the Medicare ‘Co Payment’ will be an issue Laor will campaign on in the Griffith by-election: Even more important is this: despite promising that Medicare was safe before the election, Tony Abbott’s government plans to charge Australians to see a bulk billing GP. Local Liberal candidate for Griffith – former AMA head, Bill Glasson – supports

    Good. That should be a winning point. No one wants Medicare wound back apart from vested interests in private health. Calling it a ‘tax’ – way to go, even if not accurate. Accuracy never troubled Labor’s opponents in politics or the media.

    This is what Labor should be giving strongest emphasis to: “If we do nothing, we could soon see the foundations of our health system undermined. The most vulnerable Australians will be forced to pay to see a GP.

    If that happens, it would be the beginning of the end of Medicare as we know it. So we have to demonstrate that any threat to Medicare will cost the Abbott Government too much politically.

  97. Tricot

    poroti

    The event for Shorten as advertised in the West is February 14.

    He is addressing a breakfast at a local hotel under the banner “Leadership Matters” and the event is sponsored by the West, Woodside and Murdoch Uni.

    If you have a spare $98 you could buy yourself a very expensive breakfast or if you can get 9 other ‘corporate’ friends you can have a whole table to 10 to yourself. No discount I notice.

    The interesting thing is that just a few weeks into his leadership he is actually taking this kind of stuff on and part of the blurb says….”Join the man who wants to become Australia’s next prime minister for breakfast as he talks about leadership and his plans to return Labor to power.”

    For his critics here, this action seems pretty proactive to me.

    I am not a Shorten fan as such, but perhaps the days of the celebrity leader/messiah are over for Labor?

  98. Sean Tisme

    Jay Weatherhill,

    The best Liberal Leader that SA Labor has ever had, hasn’t actually done anything about the heatwave Guytaur.

  99. guytaur

    ST

    You show your ignorance yet again.

  100. sprocket_

    No he couldn’t, he wouldn’t, surely not…..

    [Bianca Hall ‏@_Biancah 16 mins So the Bullet Train Party says Kevin Rudd will make “an important announcement” at 10.30am at http://www.bullettrainforaustralia.com.au . Intriguing. #auspol]

  101. victoria

    Tricot

    Interesting. It is indeed a proactive action by Shorten and team Labor

  102. victoria

    sprocket

    Good grief. What does Rudd have in mind?!

  103. DisplayName

    A train full of bullets?

  104. cud chewer

    Is fraudband being spoken of in Griffith?

  105. sprocket_

    Trolled by the BulletTrainParty

    it was an endorsement by rudd impersonator Anthony Ackroyd. Mind you, a bullet train on the East Coast would be a very good idea imho.

  106. Carey Moore

    Fortunately, ultra-conservative Coalition hacks from Far North Queensland have no voice in our state elections, so Sean’s opinion on Weatherill is irrelevant.

  107. victoria

    sprocket

    Thank goodness it wasnt for real

  108. guytaur

    @mbachelard: Scott Morrison denies shots fired over asylum boat. Natalegawa says Aussie lifeboat plan a “slippery slope”. http://t.co/tuhIZ2pDdv

  109. lizzie

    [Mark Pesce ‏
    Almost all food crops of any sort will die after 7 continuous days of 40C. How many years from that is South Australia? Victoria? WA?]

  110. victoria

    Re earlier discssion.

    I found it curious fhat on the same day, Truss was out and about as acting PM, and Abbott was at the PMXI game doing the coin toss. Weird

  111. poroti

    lizzie

    Renmark expecting 48C today. Stewed fruit will be their only crop before long.

  112. sprocket_

    Oh dear…

    [Stephen Smiley ‏@StephenSmiley 3 mins ABC understands @LaraGiddings has sacked Greens Ministers @NickMcKim and @CassyOConnorMP from cabinet. Premier speaking at 2 pm #politas]

  113. leone

    Life is one long holiday for Abbott. After three years of being in our faces pretty much 24/7 he rarely appears in public these days. When he dopes it’s for trivia like having a surf or hanging out at the cricket. The serious stuff is left for others to handle. He’s the Claytons PM, kept only for show, trotted out for the odd video message just so we’ll know he’s still alive – somewhere.

    So, the big question – will our alleged PM appear on Australia Day? Will he attend a citizenship ceremony in Canberra or maybe in his own electorate? Or will he just make another video wishing us all a happy day and including a few anecdotes about his own ten quid pom origins and, of course, his days as a rugby player? I’m going with the video.

  114. CTar1

    sprocket

    [Mind you, a bullet train on the East Coast would be a very good idea imho.]

    If the UK can’t get HS2 up we’ve got bugger all chance.

  115. WeWantPaul

    [For his critics here, this action seems pretty proactive to me.

    I am not a Shorten fan as such, but perhaps the days of the celebrity leader/messiah are over for Labor?]

    We live in hope.

  116. fredex

    Remember this?

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Children_Overboard

    [“A number of children have been thrown overboard, again with the intention of putting us under duress” Ruddock told a media conference on October 7, 2001.[1]

    Australian Prime Minister John Howard said on talkback radio “I can’t comprehend how genuine refugees would throw their children overboard”. [2]

    The military tried to correct the record but the federal government refused to hear ..

    …the claims that children were thrown overboard were disproved…

    .. the Government directed that key staff not appear before the committee to give evidence.]

  117. Boerwar

    cf the Portuguese ‘cangaru’, I would not hang someone on the ‘evidence’:

    (a) The illustration might be of a kangaroo. But then again, it might not.

    (b) Even if it were a kangaroo, there are macropods in New Guinea. The Portuguese explored it in the 16th Century.

    BTW, Indonesians who refer to Australia as ‘kangaroo land’ obviously don’t know that Indonesia also has kangaroos.

  118. Steve777

    It’s very hard to see a High Speed Rail getting up for Eastern Australia. The ‘corridor’ that it would serve, even if defined at its greatest extent to include SE Qld, Newcastle-Sydney-Wollongong, Canberra and Melbourne-Geelong would have a population of about 14 to 15 million in an area comparable to that of France (population 66 million) and larger than that of Japan (127 million). It would certainly be great once it was up and running but who would lay out the tens of billions to build it? Not Governments any more and given the high risks and multi-decade investment and payback, it’s hard to see private money building it.

  119. Diogenes

    CT

    The destination is the problem with HS2. Most people would pay good money never to visit Birmingham.

  120. outside left

    Lizzie, once a regular customer of mine got me to isolate her gas cooker as she was scared her dementia suffering mother would leave it on and either gas herself or blow up the house! Fran, Brett Lee had Alan Jones as his ‘mentor’

  121. Acerbic Conehead

    This is the campaign song for Operation Sovereign Borders.

    Sing along with Tones and Scoot.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Pns4Aq-RNs

  122. DisplayName

    fred, yup. The information blackout allows the government release (dis)information as and when it is politically convenient.

  123. lizzie

    outside left

    Very understandable precaution. My mother’s section of the house only has electricity and the safety switch has had a workout several times!!

  124. Tom the first and best

    125

    Government refusal to invest directly in infrastructure is a phase. They will grow out of it, eventually.

  125. DisplayName

    The Labor government may have been all over the place w.r.t. to asylum seekers but that’s an apple to the orange of the Coalition’s cynical manipulation of the issue over the past two decades.

  126. CTar1

    Dio

    [Most people would pay good money never to visit Birmingham.]

    It and Leeds are not the ideal getting off place.

    HS2 should go all the way to Waverly/Edinburgh or even Aberdeen.

  127. guytaur

    If you saw it through the technical difficulties good presser by Shorten on the campaign trail in Griffith.

    Lots of mention of the tax on GP visits

  128. Diogenes

    CT

    Surely Glasgow and Edinburgh should have been the destinations.

  129. leone

    Oh well done Tony and Joe!
    [Dismal Australian employment figures, full time job losses a worry

    The Australian employment change for December came at -22.6K vs 10K expected and 21K last, with the jobless rate at 5.8% vs 5.8% expected and 5.8% last. In terms of full time employment change, December saw -31.6K vs +15.5K last, with part-timers +9K vs +5.5K last. The participation rate came at 64.6% vs 64.8% exp and 64.8% last.

    The data is a big blow for the Australian economy, which continues to see large numbers of full-time jobs being lost. The 30+K deviation between what was expected and the actual data was only balanced out by an increase in part-time jobs over the summer period. The participation rate saw also a decrease of 0.2%, which is discouraging]

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=16df8a92-7a93-4ddf-a22f-d00cc1edb49e

    The Aussie dollar is, dare I say it, plummeting as a result of those figures, now down to 88.25 and still falling.

    I’m so glad the adults are in charge now and are going to fix the economy and create a zillion new jobs. What would things be like if they weren’t there?

  130. CTar1

    Dio

    [Surely Glasgow and Edinburgh should have been the destinations.]

    Yep, the politicians understand but lack the gonads at the moment.

    Lots of borrowing required.

  131. CTar1

    [Hacking trial: Cleaner found Charlie Brooks’s erotic magazine in bin bag, court hears ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/hacking-trial-cleaner-found-charlie-brookss-erotic-magazine-in-bin-bag-court-hears-9062598.html

    The gift that keeps giving!

    😆

  132. DisplayName

    leone

    A little while back we had a discussion about Labor pushing on the Liberal’s promise to create jobs and whether it was good timing. I thought (and still think) that it may be premature. However if opposition are sure that the negative predictions are accurate, then getting the government to recommit to that promise may be a good tactic.

    We have the prior example of Labor doing itself over with repeated promises of a surplus.

  133. DisplayName

    @139, should be “there was a discussion”

  134. CTar1

    London 11C and raining.

    Think I’ll stay here with the A/C on.

  135. victoria

    Ventured out into the environment. A breezy 42 degrees…….

  136. CTar1

    vic,

    Well at least there was some breeze.

  137. Kinkajou

    BTW, Indonesians who refer to Australia as ‘kangaroo land’ obviously don’t know that Indonesia also has kangaroos

    just the tree ones I think….which are a tad possumish

  138. victoria

    CTar1

    As long as the power supply is not disrupted, we will get through the next few days, but have to say it has been a shocker so far.
    Had to take youngest to work in local shopping centre. It was packed to the rafters. Daresay people think going to the shops is a good pastime on a stinking hot day

  139. CTar1

    Lot’s of nutters running State Govts but BO’F not going too bad.

  140. CTar1

    vic

    [As long as the power supply is not disrupted]

    Last time I can recall it in Canberra was 1985.

    I’m still capable of sleeping on the floor.

    Keep cool!

  141. outside left

    CTar1, yeah the AHA, developers, miners and other spiv types agree

  142. victoria

    CTar1

    I will try

  143. CTar1

    outside

    [ yeah the AHA, developers, miners and other spiv types agree]

    Not as bad as some.

  144. Darn

    [zoomster
    Posted Thursday, January 16, 2014 at 9:06 am | Permalink
    The Coalition was careful not to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs during the term of the last government by opposing action which might have stopped the boats.

    So is it in their best interests now to do so?

    If they ‘Stop the Boats’, then in a couple of years time, fear of boats will have subsided and the focus for the issue – if there is any at all – will shift once again to the treatment of detainees.

    Without ‘the boats’ to distract them (and ‘boat people’ to blame for taking their jobs, causing traffic jams, forcing Coles to sell halal meat, stealing disabled parking places and whatever other Bad Thing boat-detesters have experienced this week) people are going to be looking – and journalists reporting – on other matters to do with the government’s performance.]

    That thought has crossed my mind too. Of course the coalition would argue that only they can maintain it and that a Labor government would open the flood gates again. But Labor has already demonstrated their determination to stop the boats with the Malaysia solution and especially the PNG solution, so come the next election, all they really need to say is “me too” and then focus on the mountain of ammunition they will have acquired by then to use against the government.

  145. davidwh

    So no shots fired. That’s at least something good.

  146. lizzie

    The Age: Melbourne school gardener dies after working in heat
    [Ivanhoe Girls’ Grammar School is mourning the death a gardener who collapsed and died at the school in Wednesday’s stifling heat.]

    Surely Oz should start to think about days off in heatwaves. Poor guy was probably afraid he’d lose his job if he stayed away.

  147. CTar1

    Bw – Sister’s dog on a blanket on the floor. On her back legs up.

    Sucking up the A/C.

  148. DisplayName

    david, see how low the standard they’ve set is. Now the absence of a poor action – that shouldn’t occur in the first place – is “good” :P.

  149. DisplayName

    lizzie, AGW is a conspiracy by lazy, poor folk who don’t want to work.

  150. Lynchpin

    davidwh

    If you are basing your statement on Morrison’s denial, I think you can safely assume the asylum seekers are right and he is wrong.

  151. Jake

    An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter. He’s building for himself a healthy catalogue of examples showing his approach to what can and can’t be discussed is arbitrary and self-serving.

  152. DisplayName

    The method used by the Coalition allows them to control the release of (dis)information.

    Darn and zoomster assume that with the boats “stopped” the Coalition will have no ammunition. davidwh the other day suggested that they will declare the boats stopped when it is politically convenient. I think both may be backward.s

    “Stopped” doesn’t mean absolutely no boats. Nor does it mean none setting sail – the standard set for the Labor government – now it just means none reaching our shores or ears. Abbott has already declared success.

    There will still be boats but whether we hear about them or not will be at the convenience of the Coalition. At least that’s the game we can expect them to try on the Australian public given the Coalition’s past success at manipulating the issue.

  153. davidwh

    Lynchpin I give limited credence to unconfirmed reports from anonymous Indonesian officials probably less than I even give to Morrison. Having said that politicians seldom lie directly about something that can be confirmed.

  154. poroti

    They should ask Morrison if Op Sov borders covers a defined area of ocean. If so did the alleged shooting incident happen outside this area ?

  155. Sean Tisme

    [An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter. He’s building for himself a healthy catalogue of examples showing his approach to what can and can’t be discussed is arbitrary and self-serving.]

    He is perfectly allowed to comment on whatever he chooses in the War with People Smugglers.

    The Australian people have given him a mandate to stop the boats and that’s exactly what he is doing.

  156. poroti

    Whilst the nation cooks Darwin heads the other way

    [Darwin the coldest capital in country

    Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Todd Smith said yesterday was on par with the coolest January day in Darwin’s recorded weather history

    Not even Hobart – a perpetually wet and icy place – was a match for the Top End capital when it came to snatching the title of the country’s chilliest capital city of the day.

    The weather bureau’s maximum temperatures yesterday were Adelaide (45.1C), Melbourne (42.8C), Canberra (37.6C), Hobart (30.3C), Brisbane (30.2C), Sydney (27.5C), Perth (26.7C). Darwin was at the bottom of the list with a top of just 25.7C.
    ]

    http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/as-other-capitals-sweat-its-cool-to-be-in-darwin/story-fnk0b1zt-1226802644894

  157. WeWantPaul

    [Lynchpin I give limited credence to unconfirmed reports from anonymous Indonesian officials probably less than I even give to Morrison. Having said that politicians seldom lie directly about something that can be]

    Can’t think of any reaSon certainly not anything he has done that would make anyone rate Morrison as trustworthy. Don’t you lie to the population whenever it suits you in war?

    I could do a list of distrust in order from least:

    Newscorp
    Abbott
    Morrison
    Drug users
    Bad credit auto lenders
    Car warranty companies
    Second hand car dealers
    Drug dealers
    Corrupt local Indonesian officials
    National Indonesian officials

  158. guytaur

    ST

    There is no WAR!!!

    Morrison busy denying shots fired.

  159. Player One

    [ He is perfectly allowed to comment on whatever he chooses in the War with People Smugglers. ]

    Should we expect “conscription” next?

    Idiot.

  160. Henry

    Given all morrison and Abbott are doing is just continuing labor’s policies on AS then it is safe to say that any credit should really go to labor for any “stopping” of the boats.

  161. davidwh

    I never said he was trustworthy WWP.

    Pretty well all politicains deceive by saying things in such a way as to create the wanted perception but with sufficient wriggle-room to deny that was what they intended to imply. That’s Politics 101. However to answer a specific question with yes/no response is another matter. There is little wriggle-room then.

  162. guytaur

    @GrogsGamut: My latest for @GuardianAus: “Is the skills shortage real or is industry trying to push down wages?” http://t.co/qhdYCfHMCz

  163. CTar1

    dwh – lying standard.

  164. Sean Tisme

    [Given all morrison and Abbott are doing is just continuing labor’s policies on AS then it is safe to say that any credit should really go to labor for any “stopping” of the boats.]

    Remind us again how many boats Labor turned/towed back?

    Even that line is now done and dusted. The Coalition have stopped the boats and the punters recognise this. They will get full credits.

  165. guytaur

    @702sydney: 40o in Penrith now. Prepare and beat the heat…

    http://t.co/BV58Ucakxf http://t.co/dzfTp6yvL7

    This may impact voters thinking in one of the seats that went from Labor to Liberal

  166. DisplayName

    Tisme
    [They will get full credits.]
    Sure, but we will see whether that translates into political support.

  167. poroti

    The kiwi tory is nothing like our one that’s for sure. Unfortunately.

    [Key has an advantage, which I do not like. He could easily be a Labour Prime Minister. He occupies the same part of the political spectrum as Helen Clark. National has kept all Labour’s income transfers and increased the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest New Zealanders. Who believes Labour would not have done a deal to build an Auckland Convention Centre, the broadband fibre rollout or to have the Avatar movies made here?]

    .
    Sounds familiar
    [Then there are the press gallery journalists, who believe if another journalist has said it then it must have credibility. But repeating nonsense does not make it sensible.]

    http://www.listener.co.nz/current-affairs/politics/richard-prebble-no-left-turn/

  168. davidwh

    CTar we generally argue a lot about what is a lie or not. Personally I think there are just levels of deception ranging from outright lying to misleading people. Politicians do it very well but generally try to avoid the outright lie they may get caught out on.

    Brough was an exception to that during the Slipper issue 🙂

  169. Henry

    Sean Tisme@173



    Given all morrison and Abbott are doing is just continuing labor’s policies on AS then it is safe to say that any credit should really go to labor for any “stopping” of the boats.


    Remind us again how many boats Labor turned/towed back?

    Even that line is now done and dusted. The Coalition have stopped the boats and the punters recognise this. They will get full credits.

    Tow backs did not stop the boats dummy – they’re still coming.
    It’s the labor govts PnG and Nauruan policies that are working. As indeed they were when labor was in office.

  170. guytaur

    @GuardianAus: Know any climate change sceptics? Turn off their air conditioning http://t.co/oKH9ITY0Is

  171. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    What is the beting that the ‘outside experts’ turn out to be Boton Consulting Group, currently giving pro bono help to Abbott’s Audit Commission?

    This is rolling out like a rug woven to pattern on an electronic weaver

    http://dianeravitch.net/category/black-alliance-for-educational-options/
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/school-curriculum-review-expertsl-to-be-expanded/5202952

  172. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: The Tasmanian Premier @LaraGiddings is expected to address the media at approx 2pm AEDT. Watch LIVE on #ABCNews24 #politas”

  173. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    re 180
    [Christopher Pyne confirms more experts can be called in to help on national curriculum review

    Updated 1 hour 3 minutes ago
    A teacher gives instructions to her pupils Photo: The review follows concerns the school curriculum is failing students. (Anne-Christine Pouloulat, file photo: AFP)
    Related Story: ‘Culture wars’ warning over curriculum review
    Map: Australia

    Education Minister Christopher Pyne says more experts can be called in to help review the national school curriculum.

    The Government recently announced that former teacher Kevin Donnelly and academic Ken Wiltshire will conduct the review, which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.

    At the time, Mr Pyne said it was unnecessary to have a committee working on the review.

    However, he has today confirmed Dr Donnelly and Professor Wiltshire will have the power to bring in experts to help review different education areas.
    ]

  174. Acerbic Conehead

    guytaur,

    [ST

    There is no WAR!!!

    Morrison busy denying shots fired.]

    Tones has only likened it to war. So far they haven’t fired any bullets – only suppositories.

  175. lizzie

    Puff

    One way in which “western civilization” is failing Australia is the cool climate insistence on working through the heat of the day. It’s crazy, but we’ve imported a 9 to 5 culture from UK/Ireland.

  176. bemused

    lizzie@185

    Puff

    One way in which “western civilization” is failing Australia is the cool climate insistence on working through the heat of the day. It’s crazy, but we’ve imported a 9 to 5 culture from UK/Ireland.

    So what are you suggesting we should be doing?

  177. guytaur

    About time!!!

    “@3AW693: Just in. RT @AustralianOpen: The Extreme Heat Policy has now been implemented.”

  178. deblonay

    How are our Adelide PBs surviving
    In Melb the temp is n the way to the forecast 44 deg…

  179. victoria

    deblonay

    Earlier I was at the shopping centre close to where we both reside. It was packed. Seems like the locals think it is the best place to stay cool today

  180. imacca

    [An interesting thing about Morrison’s denial of shots fired is his willingness to comment on the matter, given it would have to be an ‘on water’ or ‘operational’ matter.]

    So, now under Morriscum and Abboot the Navy does NOT fire shots over the bows of a vessel to get it to stop? That’s a useful piece of information for the people smugglers to know isn’t it? 🙂

  181. lizzie

    bemused

    Isn’t it obvious?

  182. bemused

    deblonay@188

    How are our Adelide PBs surviving
    In Melb the temp is n the way to the forecast 44 deg…

    Not sure why Adelaide is so much the focus.

    Melbourne will be almost as hot and has already reached 42.7. It could even end up exceeding Adelaide’s temperature!

    This is a very widespread phenomenon with a body of hot air from Central Australia blanketing all of the south east of Australia.

  183. bemused

    lizzie@191

    bemused

    Isn’t it obvious?

    No. If it was I wouldn’t have asked.

  184. guytaur

    “@zedwoods: Breaking: Tas Parliament to be recalled on January 28 #politas”

  185. outside left

    Lizzie, us tradies start at 7. Usually very productive before the heat takes over

  186. deblonay

    Victoria…re the heat

    I”ve friends who have gone to a son’s 40th birthday in Adalaide and they took a caravan…finding it unliveable there and spending days in a shopping centre as the son’s appartment is not ready and he’s with friends till it is
    and the long drive home in such heat is daunting too

  187. guytaur

    “@Simon_Cullen: Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings announces the state election will be on March 15”

  188. Lynchpin

    [He is perfectly allowed to comment on whatever he chooses in the War with People Smugglers.]

    Knob.

  189. lizzie

    bemused

    It’s too late to change the culture now, but look at other European nations which live with heat, for example. Our inflexibility also works against more family-friendly (especially female-friendly) working hours.

  190. Carey Moore

    [Not sure why Adelaide is so much the focus.]

    Because the forecast is a dangerous 46. I am sorry this means you precious petals miss out on a little attention. We’ll try to be more considerate of your need to be the centre of attention next time we have a record heat wave, k?

  191. Lynchpin

    Really davidwh?

    I expect then that you believed Howard about children overboard.

  192. CTar1

    david

    Not telling the truth is about enough.

  193. lizzie

    outside left

    That’s much better – and they knock off earlier.
    Farmers/vegie growers etc can adjust their work.

  194. Asha Leu

    Lara Giddings coming across very well in her presser.

  195. Asha Leu

    Lara Giddings coming across very well in her presser.

  196. deblonay

    Re the Portuguese
    _______________
    There’s a monument to their explores at Warnambool…which is the site now af an annual event by that community

    It deals with the mysterious”Mahogany Ship” which the Portuguese claim as one of their’ vessels
    The ship was seen wrecked on a local beach by early settlers but later broke up and the timber was taken for local buildings
    Was it Portuguese ? or mayvbe Chinese as claimed by Bruce Menzies the author of”China Discovers the world ” ….in the 15th century…long before the Europeans came here

    interesting in rethe current matter

  197. Steve777

    Top temps so far:
    Adelaide 43.6
    Melbourne 42.8

  198. bemused

    lizzie@199

    bemused

    It’s too late to change the culture now, but look at other European nations which live with heat, for example. Our inflexibility also works against more family-friendly (especially female-friendly) working hours.

    I am not sure what the work culture is in the hotter parts of Europe in major cities.

    The old siesta was fine in small communities where people worked close to home. But in a modern large city, that is no longer the case for most people.

    On a really hot day I just adapt by going to work early before the heat really hits and I either leave work early to avoid the peak or stay on until it is cooler after the peak. Works for me.

  199. CTar1

    Asher’

    Wild stuff happens.

  200. MTBW

    [The Government recently announced that former teacher Kevin Donnelly and academic Ken Wiltshire will conduct the review, which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.]

    Could these people be part of Sean’s group of friends?

  201. Boerwar

    The Liberals have form when it comes to lying about asylum seekers and lying about lots else besides.

    They just do it. Just like that.

    So when they say that no shots have been fired, it might be yet another example of the truth thrown overboard for cynical political purposes.

    Who knows?

  202. CTar1

    Mtbw’

    All things possible.

  203. Lynchpin

    BW, I am with you.

  204. bemused

    Carey Moore@200


    Not sure why Adelaide is so much the focus.


    Because the forecast is a dangerous 46. I am sorry this means you precious petals miss out on a little attention. We’ll try to be more considerate of your need to be the centre of attention next time we have a record heat wave, k?

    Not like you to be so snarky Carey.

    I said this is a widespread phenomenon. It will be worse in places other than Melbourne and Adelaide.

    BTW, Melbourne exceeded 46 deg in 2009.

  205. guytaur

    bemused

    Adelaide is the focus as officially world’s hottest city today.

  206. Boerwar

    When I worked up at VRD in the NT, the average max in Feb was 42.7 degrees.

    It was the Wet so it was always about to rain, raining or it had just rained.

  207. poroti

    guytaur

    And yesterday.

  208. imacca

    Hmmmm….Stuff worth a read and a laugh.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/nobel-scientist-willing-to-bet-on-global-warming/story-e6frg8y6-1226802749576

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/14/climate_change_another_study_shows_they_don_t_publish_actual_papers.html

    Of course the reason Grumpy True Disbelievers dont get published in Journals is because of the Global Conspiracy (involving thousands of scientists, none of whom have ever blown the whistle on it funnily enough??) to suppress the truth that its all a scam. 🙂

  209. CTar1

    Bw

    [It was the Wet so it was always about to rain, raining or it had just rained.]

    You can stick that.

  210. citizen

    [Life is one long holiday for Abbott. After three years of being in our faces pretty much 24/7 he rarely appears in public these days.]

    He could beat the heat by going on another skiing holiday. There is a brand new ski resort that he could visit:

    [ http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/15/travel/north-korea-ski-resort-gallery/index.html?hpt=hp_c2 ]

  211. Boerwar

    CTaR1

    [Bw

    It was the Wet so it was always about to rain, raining or it had just rained.

    You can stick that.]

    We didn’t have electricity or running water. Air con was sitting up to our necks in water under the shade of a cadjeput, keeping an eye out for crocs.

  212. Boerwar

    CTaR1
    The JR is sticking to tradition and sleeping through the heat.

  213. CTar1

    Bw – Sounds like my childhood.

  214. CTar1

    Bw = JR doing travel.

  215. citizen

    [@702sydney: 40o in Penrith now. Prepare and beat the heat…

    This may impact voters thinking in one of the seats that went from Labor to Liberal]

    It may also cause Newspoll not to be conducted next weekend.

  216. guytaur

    “@Simon_Cullen: RT @rachfisher71 Another Tas election fought over a pulp mill! #backtothefuture #wesleyvale #politas”

  217. Steve777

    The reasons that climate change deniers aren’t published in serious, peer-reviewed scientific journals are the same as the reasons that proponents of healing crystals aren’t published in medical journals and creationists in journals of biology and geology.

  218. victoria

    [Treasurer Joe Hockey expected yesterday’s public hearing into the Commission of Audit would be a “show trial” and a “stunt”.

    And at face value he was right. Those who hoped Tony Shepherd or the other Commissioners would reveal their views on privatising Australia Post or a co-payment for doctors’ consultations were bound to be disappointed.]

    http://theconversation.com/audit-commissions-secrecy-and-haste-makes-for-bad-policy-22059

  219. MTBW

    The ASX is up nearly 1.00%

  220. Jackol

    which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.

    So the curriculum is “failing students”. That would be the new national curriculum which is only just being rolled out this school year as I understand it – ie not a single student has been taught anything under the curriculum that is, apparently, “failing students”.

  221. Marrickville Mauler

    Why hasn’t Direct Action stopped the heatwave?

    See, we on the left could pose as wilful moronic trolls too if we liked but we have more dignity …

  222. CTar1

    So late afternoon and I’ve swapped an E-500 for a 1100cc Ducati.

    Survive is around it.

  223. davidwh

    [Really davidwh?

    I expect then that you believed Howard about children overboard.]

    Lynchpin I’m different to most here. I don’t think either side of politics is much better or worse than the other when it comes to political deception and I don’t support either sides policy on border protection.

    As for Howard on Children Overboard I did take him at his word to begin with but was disappointly proven to have been naive.

  224. poroti

    MM

    How many degrees cooler will Direct Action make the planet ?

  225. Geoff

    Imacca 218
    Brian Schmidt would be 66/67 years old in 20 years time so it starts to look like he may not even be alive then. Plus 20 years is a long time to wait for 10K and by then 10K probably would not be worth a great deal.

    He should do it for 5 or 10 years time.

  226. deblonay

    Siesta most civilized
    _______________
    We spnt some time one summer in Spain and with most things shut at mid-day we got into the Siesta habit after lunch…were civilised in such heat…and one felt fresher once the cooler evening came…though the Spainish eat very late…even small kids which always worried my wife who thought they shoub be in bed !…but more applicable as Bemused just said…. to small towns

  227. Boerwar

    So, Hockey has publicly stated that the Commission of Audit is one big political stunt aimed at providing a fig leaf of policy development cover for whatever class war bastardry the Abbott Government thinks it will get away with?

    I do so like an honest politician.

  228. Marrickville Mauler

    Poroti # 236: dunno but it should make a few selected Tory friends richer at taxpayer expense which is after all what really counts

    Sorry to bail on my own game so soon, my head already hurts from trying to take denialist logic seriously!

  229. Sean Tisme

    [Tow backs did not stop the boats dummy]

    Now theres an Oxymoron if ever I saw one.

    Of course tow backs stop the boats… they are stopped by being towed back to Indonesia.

    You guys are really starting to come unhinged

  230. Jackol

    Yes, the foolish person who expects to live to the ancient age of 66/67 years! Sheesh, everyone knows that hardly anyone survives to three score and ten years.

    Life expectancy at birth for males in Australia is 80, and the life expectancy for a white male who survives their teens/twenties is significantly more … Schmidt could easily expect to live to his mid 80s.

    66/67 and likely to be dead. LOL. That explains conservative ‘long term’ thinking perhaps.

  231. Steve777

    “…which follows concerns the curriculum has become too left-leaning and is failing students.”

    I recently heard that line or something very similar in an ABC Newsradio bulletin on the Government’s announcement of the Curriculum review, stated without attribution and without any indication as to who was ‘concerned’. It’s similar to references to the ‘botched home Insulation program’ you hear when Pink Batts are in the news.

    This seems to be a matter of the ABC simply regurgitating statements in ministerial press releases or picking up what is printed in the morning papers (mostly controlled by guess who).

    The Curriculum was not as I recall mentioned in the election campaign. It was certainly far from the front of the campaign. It was not mentioned in the Coalition’s ‘Real Solutions’ pamphlet. There may have been obscure academics railing against it in the pages of ‘the Australian’ – I wouldn’t know, it’s been a while since I read it. But there was certainly no widespread community concern. This whole thing smacks of a strategic move in an ideological war. It also again highlights laziness on the part of the ABC.

  232. Geoff

    Um jackol I said he may not even be alive not He will likely be dead.
    I always love your reading and analysis skills always top notch.

  233. Boerwar

    Schmidt made precisely the point I was making.’ It is all about risk management.

    Newman and Switser are only pretending to believe in global warming. This is quite a clever sophistry ploy.

    Last year was the fourth hottest on record, globally. The oceans are gaining heat. Sea levels are rising. Global ice mass balance is going down the tubes. The rate of oceanic acidification is the highest for millenia. Thousands of species have shifted geography and phenology. Populations are variously booming (jellyfish) or going down the tubes (numerous species).

    Just one out of 9,000 peer reviewed authors thinks that the science is wRONg.

    97% of climate scientists in another study support human influence on climate by way of CO2 emissions.

    All the worlds top science acadamies think that Denierism is a crock of intellectual shit.

    If Newman and Switser want to be treated as if they have a skerrick of credibility, they have to come out with some numbers about what it is that we are NOT supposed to be worrying about:

    (1) the rate of acidification, what it will be like in 2100, and what the costs will be.
    (2) The rate of heat gain and how this will be expressed.
    (3) Sea levels in 2050 and 2100.
    (4) Atmospheric and oceans temperature gain.

    After all, if they are saying, don’t worry about it, they must be able to say what it is that we are not worrying about.

    But they will not because they can not.

  234. BK

    On what basis does Abbott justify spending all that money on Direct Action. Why?

  235. Jackol

    Geoff –

    Um jackol I said he may not even be alive

    And you or I could be hit by a bus tomorrow.

    That’s not the point.

    You were making some specious comment about planning for something in 20 years when there was a reasonable chance that the person making the bet would be dead.

    The chances of him being dead at 66/67 are very low, and that was my point. The fact that you even brought ‘may even be dead’ into the picture shows you think it a significant probability, when the facts are that he would be very unlucky (hit-by-a-bus unlucky) for that to be the case, and the notion that he should be considering his likely survival in 20 years time (more than any of us should) is just silly.

  236. poroti

    Bill has turned up. Now will Abbott show his face ?

    [Terri Butler, Bill Shorten campaign in Brisbane shopping centre]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/terri-butler-bill-shorten-campaign-in-brisbane-shopping-centre-20140116-30whx.html