Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. Why should our national parliament open its sessions with an Anglican religious service, when I would think about 5% of the population are practising Anglicans?

    Why should our parliament open with any religious service?

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:35 pm

  2. States are broadly restricted to laws relating to “peace, welfare, and good government” which while broad should exclude imposition of religion.

    by shellbell on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:35 pm

  3. I believe in egalitarianism. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, to reach their potential, and everyone is entitled to the same respect no matter what station of life they are in.

    You don’t appear to even know what “egalitarianism” means. It does not, as you appear to think, mean that your opinion has the same value as someone who actually – you know – knows stuff.

    Pretty Boy: In my opinion, pi should equal 3
    Mathematician: But pi does not equal 3. Here’s the proof …
    Pretty Boy: But I am an egalitarian! So my opinion carries the same weight as your proof! Therefore pi equals 3.
    Mathematician: Nurse! Time for Pretty Boy’s medication …

    by Player One on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:36 pm

  4. prettyone@475

    And Player One, you calling me Pretty Boy says something about issues of respect and tolerance for someone’s differing opinions.

    I value your opinions for their comedic value, Pretty Boy, even though they are demonstrably wrong.

    You still have a way to go to catch up with ST, however.

    by Player One on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:39 pm

  5. prettyone, as with any problem that requires collective action, any single participant – in this case nations – could argue that their individual actions will have little effect. The logic of everyone making similar claims leads to the inescapable result that no action is taken by anyone.

    by DisplayName on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:39 pm

  6. Then again, maybe if the feds imposed Jedi theology, we would be far better off.

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:39 pm

  7. 501

    Those sort of terms, particularly “good government” are often subject to disagreement and the courts are loath to declare laws invalid on grounds of not falling into such subjective categories.

    by Tom the first and best on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:40 pm

  8. 31,000 full time jobs lost last month.

    31,000 families life style destroyed.

    31,000 families pushed into poverty.

    And while destroying 31,000 families Abbott has reduced taxation on the wealthy and increased benefits to the wealthy. Ensured the billionaire miners pay less tax.

    So much for the 200,000 jobs per year he promised!!!

    by AussieAchmed on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:40 pm

  9. prettyone

    Okay, but how does a carbon tax that increases our power bills actually do that?

    It encourages us to use less power – both directly (by individuals taking action to reduce their bills) and indirectly (by individuals chosing not to buy products which are more expensive because of the carbon price).

    Using less power (or using less coal-sourced power) cuts emissions for Australia dramatically, as electricity use and production is by far our biggest source of emissions.

    Is our carbon tax so terribly important that it will reduce temperatures around the world including Australia?

    The atmosphere is wrapped around the world, so it doesn’t give a flying rat’s where the emissions come from.

    To reduce emissions, each country has to do its bit. Sure, our best efforts might only reduce (say) emissions by 0.5%. But if every other country in the world reduces their share of world emissions by 0.5%, then you can achieve a pretty substantial reduction in emissions overall.

    Think of it like water restrictions – we all know that, as individuals, showering for 3 minutes and watering the garden with a bucket doesn’t actually save much water. But if none of us did it, we would all run out of water very quickly.

    (And remember, we’re not trying to reduce temperatures – we’re trying to stop them rising more than they will otherwise).

    by zoomster on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:43 pm

  10. I like this comment attached to the article linked above

    Pyne or Pyne morphing to a neo-con proponent is better than no Pyne at all. Having lost any raison d’etre for science, the neocons are resorting to religion to compensate for what it appears to be rather horrendously deficient in its policy targets. It no longer wishes to evolve towards democracy but instead it will create a ‘veil of secrecy’ under its political governance and consider it a military issue when dealing with asylum seekers. The neocons are in war mode towards all political, social, and economic issues because it lacks various capacities to discern, negotiate, and resolve any conflicts peacefully without resorting to leftist blame-gaming strategies. The LNP looks at the glory of war as the way forward and it is all hell.
    Commenter
    Neo is a Con

    Location
    Date and time
    January 16, 2014, 5:25PM

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/where-pyne-and-the-neocons-went-wrong-20140115-30v1u.html#ixzz2qYqJGySX

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:44 pm

  11. Carey,

    Actually, you’re not entirely wrong. My apologies.

    Section 116 of the Constitution says:

    “The Commonwealth shall not make any law for establishing any religion, or for imposing any religious observance, or for prohibiting the free exercise of any religion, and no religious test shall be required as a qualification for any office or public trust under the Commonwealth.”

    State laws imposing religion would, however, be inconsistent (and therefore invalid) with Commonwealth laws such as the Human Rights & Equal Opportunity Commission Act 1986 (Cth) (“the HREOCA”), the Racial Discrimination Act 1975 (Cth) and the Workplace Relations Act 1996 (Cth).

    http://www.humanrights.gov.au/publications/hreoca-religious-freedom

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:45 pm

  12. “prettyone, as with any problem that requires collective action”

    DisplayName
    I always appreciate your politeness to me.

    Okay climate arguments one way and another. Agree to disagree, there’s no absolute science in this sort of thing.

    Overall, I do think Australia faces much more important issues than the weather. Our debt level which is just ginormous and trying to find an economically sustainable way into the future and reducing our debt.

    by prettyone on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:47 pm

  13. Evening all. Getup are starting a campaign to raise money to get proper reporting from Christmas Island and other places on refugee and boat arrival numbers. Good idea :)

    If enough of us chip in now, we can end the media blackout and fund investigations into places like Nauru, Manus Island and Christmas Island. We can uncover the truth about our offshore detention centres and the genuine stories of the people within them. Can you pitch in to end the secrecy around our asylum system?

    https://www.getup.org.au/help-end-the-secrecy

    Perhaps Getup is too suspicious. Morrison’s motivation may not be secrecy. What if it is modesty? Perhaps coalition policy has been brilliantly successful, and he just doesn’t want to take too much credit at news conferences? That must be it! This policy is too succesful to reveal the full details. The boats have been turned back. There is no need for a press conference to gloat about it :)

    by Socrates on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:50 pm

  14. Bloody the quality of trolls aren’t what they used to be in the PB lounge.

    by poroti on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:50 pm

  15. prettyone

    Yes, how do we fix our debt?

    I say we back the Denver Broncos to beat the New England Patriots in AFC Championship to qualify for the Super Bowl on the weekend, what say you?

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:51 pm

  16. poroti

    Bring back Glen :(

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:51 pm

  17. Must be off:

    Thanks for the conversation. I never mean to be rude, just trying to put an opinion in, as one of those dreadful conservatives!

    Now please don’t think badly of our dear Mr Abbott. He’s gorgeous! Cheers everyone. Thanks again for allowing my thoughts.

    by prettyone on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:53 pm

  18. prettyone – your alter ego Sean ignores these graphs…will you?

    http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/tmean.aus.0112.32113.png

    http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/global_t.global.0112.6992.png

    by AussieAchmed on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:53 pm

  19. Poroti,

    Bloody the quality of trolls aren’t what they used to be in the PB lounge.

    Agree.

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:54 pm

  20. Socrates:

    If Coalition policy (whatever it is that has been implemented) had been wildly successful we’d be seeing Morrison 24/7 not the opposite.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:55 pm

  21. don't think badly of our dear Mr Abbott.

    Vomit!

    by Centre on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:55 pm

  22. Carey Moore@489


    Hope you got through the awful conditions in Adelaide okay. Watching the news it looked truly appalling for SAers.


    Barely. I ended up getting pretty badly dehydrated. I am still a bit off colour from it all. But I’ll live. The worst is over and tomorrow is forecast to only be 40 degrees (I never thought I’d live to see the day when 40 would be considered a relief.)

    Thanks for the concern

    Were you out and about in it or don’t have any cooling?

    Last I heard we had 44 forecast for tomorrow in Melbourne.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:55 pm

  23. Bring back Glen

    The masochist in me misses GP as well.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:55 pm

  24. Bring back Glen

    Yes!

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:55 pm

  25. Socrates

    When have seen a politician not gloat or race to the media with a success story.

    They only hide, like Morrison, when its all going to siht for them

    by AussieAchmed on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:56 pm

  26. prettyone

    climate arguments one way and another. Agree to disagree, there’s no absolute science in this sort of thing.

    Sorry, that’s a nonsense statement. The science is as absolute about the basics of climate change as it is about anything. (‘If heat can’t escape from a system, then things get hot’ is about as basic as it gets).

    Overall, I do think Australia faces much more important issues than the weather. Our debt level which is just ginormous and trying to find an economically sustainable way into the future and reducing our debt.

    ‘The weather’ is the basis of much of our economy, for starters. If we can’t make money by growing things, we don’t have money to pay taxes and if we don’t have money to pay taxes then we go into further debt.

    Secondly, we’re talking here about replacing a carbon price, which doesn’t cost the taxpayer that much, with Direct Action, which costs much more and doesn’t do anything.

    Thirdly, if we don’t tackle climate change, costs will rise, both for governments – who will have to shell out increasingly for disaster relief, replacing lost infrastructure, health etc as the climate continues to change – and for individuals (increased insurance premiums, food prices, water bills, etc).

    You can’t have economic sustainability without action on climate change.

    by zoomster on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:56 pm

  27. States are broadly restricted to laws relating to “peace, welfare, and good government” which while broad should exclude imposition of religion.

    Where does that idea come from? The states are sovereign entities except insomuch as they have ceded some of their powers to the Commonwealth. They are also bound by international treaties signed by the Commonwealth. But aside from that, they can legislate on anything they please.

    by Psephos on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:57 pm

  28. I can’t believe we are still debating AGW
    I mean the argument has been done and dusted, long ago.

    Only bottom feeders still think it’s either crap or all too hard to fix

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:57 pm

  29. poroti 513

    I blame the education system

    by NathanA on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:58 pm

  30. Were you out and about in it or don’t have any cooling?

    Out and about.

    Last I heard we had 44 forecast for tomorrow in Melbourne.

    Be careful and stay very well hydrated. Take it from me: it creeps up on you.

    by Carey Moore on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:58 pm

  31. Hmm, “insomuch” is a word I just invented. I think I meant “insofar”.

    by Psephos on Jan 16, 2014 at 10:58 pm

  32. The masochist in me misses GP as well.

    Lol…

    by Jake on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:00 pm

  33. An interesting article

    @johnmcternan: Polling is killing politics. My @TheScotsman column: http://t.co/0wDEPp8GVY

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:01 pm

  34. WOO HOO, It’s a relatively frigid 31 c in melbourne town atm

    by Yesiree Bob on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:03 pm

  35. @BBCBreaking: British actor Roger Lloyd-Pack, best known as Trigger in Only Fools and Horses, has died age 69, agent says http://t.co/Vzn2DgpUQk

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:04 pm

  36. Okay climate arguments one way and another. Agree to disagree, there’s no absolute science in this sort of thing.

    Actually Pretty Boy – you are completely wrong. The science is unarguable that climate change is real, is occurring now, and is man-made.

    There is in fact more evidence for climate change than there is that cigarettes cause cancer, that the universe is more than 6,000 years old, that vitamins are good for you, that evolution occurs, or that dioxin is dangerous.

    So which of these others do you also disagree with?

    by Player One on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:05 pm

  37. 526

    Some states have provisions granting the powers to legislate on such grounds, like the Commonwealth is restricted to laws “for the peace, order and good governance of the Commonwealth with respect to…(insert subsections of sections 51 & 52 here)”.

    by Tom the first and best on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:05 pm

  38. AA @517: I’ll answer on behalf of Prettyone because he/she probably can’t/won’t. The graphs were fabricated by the corrupt and willing minions of the Bureau of Meteorology because they don’t realise it’s caused by the Sun or natural variation or the urban heat island effect or volcanoes or it’s all just a coincidence and the Ice Age cometh. And look, it’s now cooler than in 1998. Oh, I almost forgot, the Bureau is part of a global conspiracy to destroy free markets and institute a global communist government.

    by Steve777 on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:06 pm

  39. I recall a day a couple of years ago when I was tempted to put a jumper on while sitting on Cable Beach Broome.

    Proof that the planet is not getting hotter?

    by AussieAchmed on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:08 pm

  40. Warming planet may be undoing Putin’s plans

    @BBCSteveR: Faster, higher, stronger (& warmer – that’s #Olympic #Sochi) http://t.co/IRCV00muYZ

    What you got to say to that prettyone?

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:09 pm

  41. Steve777@537

    AA @517: I’ll answer on behalf of Prettyone because he/she probably can’t/won’t. The graphs were fabricated by the corrupt and willing minions of the Bureau of Meteorology because they don’t realise it’s caused by the Sun or natural variation or the urban heat island effect or volcanoes or it’s all just a coincidence and the Ice Age cometh. And look, it’s now cooler than in 1998. Oh, I almost forgot, the Bureau is part of a global conspiracy to destroy free markets and institute a global communist government.

    And since Pretty Boy is no longer here, I’m sure he would also like to add …

    And by golly! Doesn't Tony look gorgeous in those budgie smugglers!

    by Player One on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:15 pm

  42. Melbourne reached 43.9 today. Tomorrow the forecast is 44. Cool change expected around 9pm.

    Feels like an eternity…….

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:19 pm

  43. Carey Moore@529


    Were you out and about in it or don’t have any cooling?


    Out and about.


    Last I heard we had 44 forecast for tomorrow in Melbourne.


    Be careful and stay very well hydrated. Take it from me: it creeps up on you.

    Yes, I have a fair idea what you mean.

    I had an appointment mid-afternoon on Tuesday in the CBD which I cancelled. There was no way I was going to spend an hour and a half or so travelling in that heat, particularly with a high chance of disruption to the railway system.

    Basically staying inside the house except for when I replenish the water in the bird bath. An air conditioner in one room is working hard.

    by bemused on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:19 pm

  44. You guys also forgot: “And if you’re saying that Greg Hunt, a Minsiter of the Crown, would lie about Direct Action, then that’s treason.”

    by zoomster on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:20 pm

  45. victoria:

    I do feel for you guys. That’s pretty awful weather to be exposed to.

    by confessions on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:21 pm

  46. States are broadly restricted to laws relating to “peace, welfare, and good government” which while broad should exclude imposition of religion.

    Where does that idea come from? The states are sovereign entities except insomuch as they have ceded some of their powers to the Commonwealth. They are also bound by international treaties signed by the Commonwealth. But aside from that, they can legislate on anything they please.

    I hate agreeing with Adam but those who want a bill of rights, and Australian head of state and separation of church and state should really be working to achieve those things rather than pretending (incorrectly) that they have them already.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:28 pm

  47. You guys also forgot: “And if you’re saying that Greg Hunt, a Minsiter of the Crown, would lie about Direct Action, then that’s treason.”

    The whole cabinet is heading for a treason conviction then, not one of them has told the truth in more than 7 years.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:29 pm

  48. Reading tonight debate about the need for a carbon tax and how it works indicates something, o boy the education system needs a good looking into.

    Prettyone The reason behind how the carbon price increasing power bills is a basic Microeconomics long-run supply and demand rule.

    Lets buy ourselves an item we will call CARBON.

    Currently a unit of power will cost a certain price.

    A carbon tax is designed to increase the cost of that unit of power

    The Microeconomics theory is that as prices increase the unit of energy demanded by the customer will fall, particularly in the long-term.

    The Government had introduced various programs to increase the availability and price attractiveness of renewable sources of energy.

    The purpose of this price is to re-adjust energy use.

    The aim is to increase the use of renewable energy sources.

    The boarder Macro question relates to transferring the economy to these preferred energy sources.

    Regarding these economic theories we know they work as we see with increasing petrol prices, demand doesn’t change in the short-run but overtime as higher prices remain motorist do change their driving behavior.

    by mexicanbeemer on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:32 pm

  49. The labour market has lost more than 67,000 full-time jobs over the past year as the unemployment rate remained at a four-year high of 5.8 per cent in December.
    Thursday's softer than expected jobs report sent the dollar tumbling more than a cent to just under US88¢, a 3½⁄-year low. The currency was buying US88.13¢ in late trade.
    Economists said the job figures would add to pressure for another cut to the cash rate, but further easing by the Reserve Bank was unlikely as it had already factored a rising jobless rate into its forecasts.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/jobs-disappear-in-growth-crunch-20140116-30xnp.html#ixzz2qZ2iYQzn

    confessions

    Looking forward to the cool change.

    Night all

    by victoria on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:34 pm

  50. The thing i forgot to add the benefit of raising prices resulting in lower demand is as the fossil fuel cost rises reducing the gap between the price of CARBON and alternative energy the alternative will become more attractive and its demand will increase.

    Overtime the need for a Carbon Tax or Price is removed but that is after a considerable transformation has taken place.

    by mexicanbeemer on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:36 pm

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