Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. Tennis god at moment.

    Goonight

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:41 pm

  2. god=good

    by guytaur on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:42 pm

  3. god=good

    can I quote you on that normally you hate god with a passion that would embarrass Satan.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:44 pm

  4. Can i just comment that i find zoomster’s apparent patience with the idiot kool aid addict Petty One quite amazing.

    There is in fact more evidence for climate change than there is that cigarettes cause cancer, that the universe is more than 6,000 years old, that vitamins are good for you, that evolution occurs, or that dioxin is dangerous.

    So which of these others do you also disagree with?

    Thats a terribly unfair way to deal with card carrying true disbeliever morons!!! It may have to think and look beyond the current denialist doctrine!!

    by imacca on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:45 pm

  5. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

    They are not entitled to have it taken seriously if they cannot provide good evidence and logic for it.

    by Just Me on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:53 pm

  6. They are not entitled to have it taken seriously if they cannot provide good evidence and logic for it.

    Yes they are entitled to hold it, but they are not entitled to express it without fear of ridicule and abuse for stupidity.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:56 pm

  7. Good on ya Zoomster for putting in plain language a complex issue. In a well functioning democracy our political leaders would be explaining in similar terms to the populace. But what do we get??

    Dissembling, denial, look over there … my, how badly history will judge out current political leaders in Australia

    by Rossmore on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:57 pm

  8. prettyone,

    So what’s the point of a carbon tax?

    Leaving your misnomer aside, it’s clear you aren’t a team player.

    Just because you, as a striker/goal shooter or a fly-half, cannot win a game all on your own (except in a Boys Own, or similar comic) you give up.

    Classic individualism.

    Which has got us into the fine mess we find ourselves in.

    by Acerbic Conehead on Jan 16, 2014 at 11:59 pm

  9. Confessions, Achmed

    Precisely. A bully like Morrison only runs to hide when he knows he is losing.

    Night all.

    by Socrates on Jan 17, 2014 at 12:01 am

  10. Re Religion and Politics
    _________________
    The Catholic Church which among many attributes is a kind of political institution,may now have a Pope who is deeply concerned with Global warming and climate change

    Several recent reports say that with the assistance of some lsymen snd clerics he is preparing a Papal Encyclical dealing with the environment and notably with Global warming snf its’ long term inplications for the human race
    which he sees as profound and a matter for his concerns

    The effect of such a letter might be quite marked (where would Cardinal Pell stand ?)and how would catholics in high office react…notably Abbott and Hockey ?

    I may focus great media attention on the subject and we must hope this is so….as the concerns most of us feel
    are in need a new boost in the public debate

    by deblonay on Jan 17, 2014 at 12:27 am

  11. Jake # 510

    Nice try but there is no way the Cth Australian Human Rights Commission Act (that’s what its title has been for the last few years now by the way not the HREOC Act) invalidates State laws for inconsistency with human rights. It doesnt create a justiciable charter of rights as against the Cth much less the States.

    Were it otherwise the AHRC (the real one I mean, not the Human Rights Commissioner still yet to be appointed by the Governor General) wouldnt have been confined to putting out statements expressing concern about Qld’s VLAD laws – we would have seen High Court action based on the AHRC Act. We havent and we won’t. Such a result would require a bill or charter of rights, and one broader than any recent attempts.

    The Racial Discrimination Act does affect inconsistent state laws but isnt per se about religion?

    Not sure what you have in mind re the Fair Work Act either.

    The point about State parliaments and legislation for “peace order and good government” is a little more interesting. Although they don’t have a limited list of powers in the way the Cth does they are still creatures of constitutions – albeit constitutions that can be changed. There was a NSW case back in 1986 about the BLF where the NSW Court of Appeal left open the possibility that “peace order and good government” might impose constraints on legislative power. That suggestion was rejected by the High Court but the case didnt depend on it and in an extreme enough case you never know.

    Still, its hard to get past the point that s116 in the Cth Constitution only binds the Cth. In practical terms I think Psephos is right, States can do fairly much what they like.

    by Marrickville Mauler on Jan 17, 2014 at 12:41 am

  12. http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-the-feds-would-be-no-2-helped-wreck-russia/

    The new V-Pres of the US reserve.bank is a ..a controversial choice as the man who is said to have urged Yeltsin to follow harsh neo-liberal policies that brought the Russian economy to ruin after Gorbachov fall

    Now he is in the Us Reserve Board

    by deblonay on Jan 17, 2014 at 12:44 am

  13. Sooner or later this route is going to end in tragedy and one would hope criminal prosecutions…

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/first-lifeboat-used-to-return-56-asylum-seekers-20140116-30y0d.html

    by Rossmore on Jan 17, 2014 at 12:44 am

  14. Our F Minister Bishop is described as a” zio-looney ” by a US website…for her amazing statements yesterday justifying Israeli settlements on Palestinian lands on the West Bank

    This was made in the presense of senior Israeli ministers after her attendance at ganster Sharon funeral

    http://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/zio-looney/

    by deblonay on Jan 17, 2014 at 12:49 am

  15. Deblonay

    I am gob smacked for the second time today by a lawyer. then again Bishop did help run the defence against the claims of asbestos victims.

    by rossmcg on Jan 17, 2014 at 1:03 am

  16. So, Australian naval vessels picked up Non-Indonesian persons at sea from a sinking boat, put an Indonesian person in charge of a brand new boat and told him to take these persons to Indonesia.

    Indonesians are going to be very unhappy methinks. Especially since the Australian Govt is now buying and providing the boats. Aust Govt sponsored irregular arrivals??

    by imacca on Jan 17, 2014 at 1:28 am

  17. Rossmcg re Bishop

    Yes amazing stuff…and next month the Indonesian Govt is organising a world Conf in Jakarta on the whole of the Palestinian issue with many nations taking part

    I quess we won’t be there however

    My quess is that Bishop will get a blast there
    ow could she be so syphantic of the Israelis

    by deblonay on Jan 17, 2014 at 1:36 am

  18. 04:52:00 17/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy NB Pique of the Week

    by Otiose on Jan 17, 2014 at 4:52 am

  19. The Australian carries an ominous story…

    Hordes of stingers head south
    SARAH ELKS THE AUSTRALIAN JANUARY 17, 2014 12:00AM

    JELLYFISH that inflict a pain so intense victims beg for death are stinging people off the coast of Fraser Island, hundreds of kilometres further south than they’re usually found.

    In the space of 48 hours this week, a 40-year-old man and a 19-year-old woman have been choppered off the southeast Queensland sand island suffering suspected irukandji stings.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/hordes-of-stingers-head-south/story-e6frg8y6-1226803609622#

    I couldn’t get past the paywall, but this seems to have something to do with ocean temperatures rising.

    Strange that it should come from the same newspaper that editorially mocked scientists stranded in ice for a few days in Antarctica.

    Then again, sea monsters (however small) will always trump silly scientists in the mind of the real newsmen at The Oz.

    by Bushfire Bill on Jan 17, 2014 at 6:45 am

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I bet his clown would be the first to complain if he got a dodgy spring roll.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/patients-of-dentist-informed-of-possible-exposure-to-hiv-hepatitis-20140116-30xtw.html
    An interesting article on the reticence of bystanders to assist people in trouble.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-bystander-effect-why-we-do-nothing-when-a-stranger-needs-our-help-20140116-30xih.html
    Robert McEwen, the father of Michael McEwen who survived an assault in Bondi in December writes a good article giving O’Farrell some advice.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-time-barry-ofarrell-acted-on-alcoholfuelled-violence-20140116-30xt1.html
    Another day and deeper down the hole they go.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/first-lifeboat-used-to-return-56-asylum-seekers-20140116-30y0d.html
    Now the Navy appears to be under instruction s to lie.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seekers-say-they-were-tricked-by-navy-20140116-30xtz.html
    Operational matters?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/four-detainees-attempt-suicide-as-others-resort-to-selfharm-20140116-30xtt.html
    Where is 4 Corners? And have a look at the hollow words quoted at the end of the article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/outrage-over-live-export-trade-as-4000-sheep-cooked-alive-20140116-30x0i.html
    This process is fraught with potential problems especially given the often demonstrated malleability of auditing businesses.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/families-warned-about-tax-plan-20140116-30y13.html

    by BK on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:03 am

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Cathy Wilcox on generational attitudes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope take the Tasmanian election to the Australian Open.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe has had enough of Morriscum.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

    by BK on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:04 am

  22. poroti

    Soccer not really my thing but Emerton a pay your money and you get a mid-fielder who’ll do the work.

    Ex-Blackburn Rover and the third most capped Australian international.

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:22 am

  23. And from the Land of the Free -

    This should give some focus to Pyne’s voucher schools brain fart.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/15/wi-voucher-school-closes-in-dead-of-night-only-1-student-proficient-in-reading-2012-13/
    FoxNews shows its colours again on gun control.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/fox-news-guest-warns-another-holocaust-one
    Governor Christie, they’re coming for you!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/panel-investigating-bridge-scandal-enlists
    Want to go shopping in Indiana?
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/gunman-shoots-two-women-dead-indiana
    Walmart’s hairy-chestedness is to come under legal scrutiny.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/16/1270061/-Walmart-s-retaliation-against-striking-workers-to-go-before-a-judge
    Ohio tries a new execution method with horrible results.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/16/dennis-mcguire-execution_n_4610582.html
    A good article on common grammatical errors.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-reinalda/grammar-mistakes_b_4604776.html

    by BK on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:26 am

  24. BK – Moir on the groove.

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:32 am

  25. Sigh.

    Our local –

    Yes it’s a scorcher, but it has been far hotter here before

    ...
    .
    DON’T be shocked by the extreme heat this week — it’s been far more severe.

    A few days of summer with temperatures higher than 40 degrees isn’t usual for Albury-Wodonga.

    Gosh, we’ve had it worse.

    Indeed, the highest recorded temperature was 46.66 degrees on January 13, 1939...

    Hundreds more people died in NSW and Victoria from the effects of the heat, among them babies and old people, but also people in their 40s and 50s.

    At least 10 people died from the heatwave in Albury alone.

    .. Albury recorded 115 on January 12 and 116 (46.66 degrees Celsius) next day.

    So has Albury ever had a run of four-five days of weather over 40? Interestingly, the opinion piece skips that question, but this is suggestive…

    It’s difficult to determine the statistics as pre-1973 they are not “official” ones gathered by the Bureau of Meteorology but by local recorders, such as The Border Mail and Albury Banner.

    Hmmm.

    This newspaper kept a thermometer and rain gauge at its offices and published readings daily.

    They prove it’s nonsense to claim our summers are getting hotter as time passes — the climate pattern is reflected in the cycle of heatwaves, droughts and floods going in this district back to the 1850s.

    We’ll just have to take the writer’s word for it on this, I guess.

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2028859/yes-its-a-scorcher-but-it-has-been-far-hotter-here-before-opinion/?cs=11

    by zoomster on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:35 am

  26. zoom – ‘Lost in space’ is not too far away.

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:39 am

  27. A must read from the smh today, written by Ken Boston who used to run the Education Dept in NSW.

    If there had been no Gonski report, there would be no review of the national curriculum. The purpose of the review is to allow Education Minister Christopher Pyne to divert attention away from the inequality of opportunity which is the real cause of decline in educational achievement in Australia, and which it suits his purpose to maintain.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/christopher-pynes-review-is-just-a-diversion-from-gonski-reforms-20140116-30xs0.html#ixzz2qaywiq5A

    by Phil Vee on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:41 am

  28. Morning all. This story on the jobs trend in 2013 (stagnant growth and some losses) highlihts an issue on which neither Liberal nor Labor should feel proud:

    Australia had its worst 12 months for jobs growth for 17 years in 2013, sparking talk of an interest rate cut and a political blame game.

    Employment fell by 22,600 in December but a plunge in participation kept the jobless rate steady at 5.8%.

    The Liberals have only made things worse. But things were already trending down since Swan’s terrible May 2013 budget, which foolishly deferred spending in a vain attempt to claim a surplus. Now we do not have a surplus anyway, and meanwhile the jobs record Labor built up so well in the period 2007-2011 has been tarnished.

    This is also why I do not care about Holden. It is ultimately a small part of a bigger problem. We need to fix the overall problem, not waste billiosn propping up jobs for a tiny group.

    by Socrates on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:41 am

  29. The expression peace, welfare etc in the case of NSW appears in section 5 of the NSW constitution. Whether the words limit power or not is absolutely unresolved.

    At most the limitation operates only in most extreme cases. The academic but grisly example given is a law mandating the killing of blue eyed babies.

    In Kable’s case Toohey J quoted this:

    “Whether the exercise of that legislative power is subject to some restraints by reference to rights deeply rooted in our democratic system of government and the common law … is another question which we need not explore.”

    The usual way to attack extreme state legislation is to say it has some federal element which traverses the Cth constitution.

    by shellbell on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:46 am

  30. Link for 577
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/16/australia-posts-its-lowest-annual-jobs-growth-in-17-years

    by Socrates on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:52 am

  31. MM

    Traditionally the legislative constraints on the states are:

    1. Law must have some connection with the jurisdiction passing it
    2. Law cannot be in breach of s92 or areas where Commonwealth has power and seeks to “cover the field.
    3. Law cannot attempt to disturb matters inter se (relating to powers between the states)
    4. Powers deemed to be outside the “letters patent” originating the states as entities.

    The last two are very obscure and are a kind of catch all. As far as I’m aware, no objection to the purported exercise of a state’s authority has relied on this constraint since Federation. Even the first one is unusual.

    But in theory, subject to the above, the states as original jurisdictions, can legislate as they please. If the good governance of NSW somehow demanded the NSW passed a law requiring people to change their underwear daily and to show compliance by wearing it on the outside then NSW could indeed legislate it.

    by Fran Barlow on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:54 am

  32. Scooter would be right at home with this guy:

    An Italian MP has “blacked up” to deliver a staggering anti-immigration rant in the country’s parliament, smearing his face from a makeup pad and asking whether “we need to be a bit darker” to get benefits from the state.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/italian-mp-gianluca-buonanno-blacks-up-to-deliver-racist-antiimmigration-rant-in-parliament-chamber-9065215.html

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:55 am

  33. Should read “is not absolutely resolved”

    by shellbell on Jan 17, 2014 at 7:59 am

  34. They finally implemented the extreme heat policy at the tennis yesterday. Why not two days earlier?

    Australian Open officials applied the extreme heat policy for the first time this week at Melbourne Park.

    After temperatures consistently hovered above 40 degrees in Melbourne since Tuesday, tournament referee Wayne McKewen opted to enforce the extreme heat rule on Thursday.

    Player safety obviously comes second to broadcasting comitments and revenue. They forget there is nothing to broadcast without players and fans turning up.

    Have a good day all.

    by Socrates on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:04 am

  35. Indonesia seriously upset.

    “@George_Roberts: The Indonesian Government is investigating whether Australia has been forcing asylum seeker boats back into its waters.”

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:05 am

  36. Well that’s obviously why Goodyear make their tyres black CTar1 … ;-)

    You really have to shake your head at fools like this.

    by Fran Barlow on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:06 am

  37. @QldFES: UPDATE WATCH & ACT #Thepines – finalise bushfire plans and prepare to leave if required. http://t.co/3DEFLjd3fz

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:08 am

  38. Re Zoomster @674: a number of Australian heat records set in the 19th and early 20th centuries have been discounted because the equipment and method by which they were recorded was non standard. A thermometer on the back verandah will be likely to be affected by radiant heat from nearby roads and buildings, for example.

    In the case of the 1939 heatwave, many reliable ‘official’ records were eclipsed in 2009 (e.g. Melbourne) and 2013 (many places including Sydney). It’s also interesting to note that these two events comparable to but worse than the 1939 heatwave happened just four years apart in recent years.

    by Steve777 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:08 am

  39. Fran

    The turkey is a Sylvio supporter …

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:08 am

  40. Apple in more trouble:

    The High Court has ruled that a group of British users suing Google for breaking privacy laws can do so in the UK.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/google-to-be-tried-in-the-uk-high-court-upholds-british-claimants-secret-tracking-case-9064826.html

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:14 am

  41. My best wishes for those in feat and fire affected areas today. It is not looking good.

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:16 am

  42. guy

    for those in feat

    I’ve just checked and still have two, however spelled.

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:19 am

  43. Liberal leadershit by proxy warfare:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbottbishop-split-looming-over-showdown-for-liberal-party-presidency/story-fn59niix-1226803668111

    by Boerwar on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:19 am

  44. In the wake of the finding at the Malstrom base in Montana, the Air Force has begun re-testing all of those still assigned to the nuclear arsenal

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-air-force-suspend-34-airman-manning-critical-nuclear-missile-launch-sites-after-discovering-they-cheated-on-proficiency-tests-by-text-9065357.html

    Yanks.

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:26 am

  45. @Newsweek: Earth ↓ U.N. says climate change could be beyond fixing in 15 years. Is it us or did it just get warmer? #ConventionalWisdom

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:29 am

  46. Soc

    I thought a player hallucinating that he could see Snoopy after one set was indication enough that the authorities needed to intervene.

    Once someone reaches those levels, they can’t make rational choices for themselves about whether or not it’s safe to continue.

    Also gobsmacked by one commentator who said wtte that although several players had had to have treatment, none of them had experienced anything life threatening…which begs the question, what exactly did he want to see happening before games were called off?

    by zoomster on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:29 am

  47. The last time my block (and all around it) was burnt out was in 1939, which gave me a shiver when the anniversary and the heat came around this year. Up the slope from our house was an old chimney, the bulbs and buried paths of an old garden, and a layer of ash about a handspan below the surface. Near the chimney the remnants of a rubbish dump, with bottles dated in the 1930s, some containing powder (!).

    Local historians insist there was never a building there, which goes against the evidence.

    by lizzie on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:31 am

  48. Steve

    yes, interesting how quick denialists are to dismiss modern temperature records because they think the site of the recording station was dodgy, but will cite something recorded a century ago in dubious circumstances as gospel truth.

    by zoomster on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:31 am

  49. CTar1

    Oh I know that. Maybe Berlusconi should explain his … err … proclivities to Mr Goodyear.

    ;-)

    by Fran Barlow on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:34 am

  50. Fran
    I’m sure you will appreciate this article.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-reinalda/grammar-mistakes_b_4604776.html

    by BK on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:35 am

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