Crikey



BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2049 Responses

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  1. Fran – A bit of bunga bunga and show us your tires!

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:35 am

  2. guytaur@584

    Indonesia seriously upset.

    “@George_Roberts: The Indonesian Government is investigating whether Australia has been forcing asylum seeker boats back into its waters.”

    They would well know no doubt. But to their credit have given an almost daily low key warnings – but abbott is still hiding and morrison is saying bugger all.

    The Indonesians are going to have to do something and soon as they are being made to look being gamed.

    Making more enemies never seems to worry abbott – but in an Indonesian election year ?

    by dave on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:36 am

  3. zoomster

    Paul McNamee (sp?) said last night that the organisers had changed the rules this year and taken away the “scientific standards”.

    Getting to be a trend around here, isn’t it.

    by lizzie on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:36 am

  4. Paul McNamee (sp?) said last night that the organisers had changed the rules this year and taken away the “scientific standards”.

    Sharapova made the same sort of comment asking that they simply tell people where the limits were – temperature etc.

    by dave on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:41 am

  5. BK

    Not only here:

    UN panel confronts Vatican on child sex abuse by clergy

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25748952

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:43 am

  6. Morning all

    Thanis BK. Otiose and others for today’s reading.

    Here in Melbourne it is currently 33 degrees. Expecting a cool change later this evening.
    Can hardly wait.

    Our trains, trams transport system have buckled under the heat, and there are fires around the place.

    Dont know if this has been posted.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-city-centre-a-death-trap-as-heatisland-effect-takes-its-toll-20140116-30xt8.html

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:44 am

  7. A good article on common grammatical errors

    Anthropomorphism in language is a well-accepted rhetorical device and while the writer might be on firm ground stylistically in cautioning against its overuse, to assert that it is a mistake is another matter. The same comment applies to the third example of jargon.

    Common usage treats ‘media’ as a collective noun capable of taken singular or plural forms and it (like ‘data’) is already listed in a number of dictionaries as such. Complaining about singular ‘media’ is an out-and-out peeve. (Cue: Fran :-) )

    by Martin B on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:46 am

  8. vic

    Expecting a cool change later this evening.

    Faark. Canberra prediction is late tomorrow.

    29C for Sydney today. Makes me think of taking a drive.

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:47 am

  9. dave

    I cant get a sense of what is going on with the low key response of indonesia this past few weeks.

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:48 am

  10. CTar1

    Sounds like a plan. :)

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:48 am

  11. Who does JulieB take advice from? It can’t be a ‘diplomat’, surely? Is it perhaps some intransigent fool like Morrison?

    by lizzie on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:51 am

  12. Cost warning on power cuts risk
    Demand, extreme conditions could see Victorians face power cuts unless we pay more for electricity

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cost-warning-on-ending-risk-of-power-cuts-20140116-30xu5.html

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:53 am

  13. lizzie

    Following our discussion the other day, re hotel accommodation in the city

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hotel-cool-factor-helps-melburnians-beat-the-heat-20140116-30xi9.html

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:54 am

  14. Morning all.

    The Royal Australian Navy has been authorised to fire over the bows of asylum-seeker boats as part of "escalation of force" measures to turn back boats to Indonesia.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/20807659/navy-can-fire-to-turn-back-boats/

    Is this really necessary? The whole boats saga is getting out of hand.

    by confessions on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:56 am

  15. The correlation between poor student performance and aggregated social disadvantage is much stronger in Australia than in any other comparable western nation; indeed, stronger than the average for all 34 OECD countries. By consigning our disadvantaged children to the bin of under-achievement, we are failing to maximise our potential stock of human capital. It is primarily this, rather than any differences in curriculum and pedagogy, which puts us behind our international competitors. So long as aggregated social disadvantage continues to have such a significant impact on educational performance, our national decline will continue.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/christopher-pynes-review-is-just-a-diversion-from-gonski-reforms-20140116-30xs0.html#ixzz2qbJYW9A1

    The Coalition framed the ‘need’ for their more generous PPL scheme as a ‘productivity issue’ – so you think they’d be concerned if some of our population are demonstrably underperforming when it comes to education.

    Except, of course, that the mums they were worried about when it came to PPL were the Right Kind of People and disadvantaged children obviously aren’t (or they’d have made sure they were born into a proper family to begin with).

    by zoomster on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:56 am

  16. lizzie

    Raden Mohammad Marty Muliana Natalegawa, more commonly known as Marty Natalegawa

    Is getting to lack a sense of humour at the moment.

    by CTar1 on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:56 am

  17. For the Climate Change deniers

    High pressure ridge stationary off California for 13 MONTHS…. drought, no winter & record temperatures

    http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_24904396/california-drought-whats-causing-it

    by milenko on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:57 am

  18. victoria@608

    dave

    I cant get a sense of what is going on with the low key response of indonesia this past few weeks.

    Vic,

    They have a range of options I would think.

    When the monsoon ends just give AS waiting in Indonesia some subtle assistance make the journey, or trade or diplomatic or co-operation across the board.

    The time will come when Australia wants and needs something from Indonesia and the goodwill will not be there.

    Long memories.

    abbott is playing a dangerous game.

    by dave on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:57 am

  19. dave

    I agree that Abbott is playing a dangerous game, but it appears that he together with his cronies believe they will emerge the winners. Why else would they go down this path. It is truly gobsmacking from where I sit

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 8:59 am

  20. Lucky the one day cricket is in Brisbane, not Melbourne.

    by dave on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:00 am

  21. victoria

    Gobsmacking actions by Abbott’s mob sums up the whole shebang.
    Not just on AS policy impacting Indonesia.

    I am sure most voters are gobsmacked and wished they knew what they were in for before the election.

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:02 am

  22. guytaur

    Most Australians dont think too deeply re the ramifications with our neighbouring country. Sadly i believe a sizeable portion of the Australian public would be applauding what Abbott and Morrison are doing right now.

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:04 am

  23. The ‘‘horrid’’ figures raised fears of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, BK Asset Management managing director Boris Schlossberg said.
    ‘‘The Australian unemployment rate is deceptively low. If the participation rate had remained at the 2011 average of 65.5 per cent, the unemployment rate would have actually risen to 7.1 per cent,’’ Mr Schlossberg said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/unemployment-data-weighs-on-aussie-20140117-30yfy.html#ixzz2qbNeuh4G

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:09 am

  24. Sadly i believe a sizeable portion of the Australian public would be applauding what Abbott and Morrison are doing right now.

    You’re most likely right. But they still don’t look like they’re in control. They should just be quietly allowing the no visa rules to take hold, and take boats off the front pages.

    by confessions on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:10 am

  25. confessions

    It is more important for the boats to be front and centre for this govt, than to ensure that the relationship with Indonesia is not damaged. Something does not add up.

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:12 am

  26. I like to find the positives and this commission of audit has at least 1 very strong positive, it sets a precedent so that the next Labor government could do a review of labor conditions without any business representative just a few union leaders and a couple of former ALP MP’s. Should be a hoot watching the business council types going troppo.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:12 am

  27. BCA backs sale of Australia Post

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/bca-backs-3b-sale-of-australia-post-20140117-30y8c.html

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:13 am

  28. It is more important for the boats to be front and centre for this govt, than to ensure that the relationship with Indonesia is not damaged. Something does not add up.

    At one point the lie Abbott and the libbots told was that people smuggling was the evil thing they are trying to stop, does operation pretend war leave the people smugglers in the boats they are turning around, ie is the Australia Government not arresting and prosecuting the evil ones? Seems to me that is just wrong. #racists

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:14 am

  29. Re Victoria @617 – Abbott thinks that the electoral advantages to accrue to him and his party outweigh any difficulties with Indonesia.

    by Steve777 on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:14 am

  30. BCA backs sale of Australia Post

    Paint me surprised.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:15 am

  31. I wonder how long it will be before these rubber ducky’s we force the AS to board to get back to Indonesia will come back to Oz as an asylum seeker boat exiting Indonesia??

    The whole thing is a farce.

    by Henry on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:18 am

  32. BW – #305 Definitely explains your interest. Must say it is refreshing to read informed and unhyperbolic analysis of our super-important near neighbour.

    Look I think the Indonesian attitude is not rocket science – just realpolitic. Indonesia adjusted to accommodate Rudd’s border protection policies after 2007, now it’s adjusting to accommodate the Abbott government, on the hard headed analysis that the coalition has won a two term mandate.

    Asylum seekers would be a pretty low order issue to Indonesia compared with what it needs/requires from Australia over the long term. Like any mature country would be that’s what Indonesia is interested in.

    by Bar Bar on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:18 am

  33. WWP

    Leave the people smugglers in the boat to go back and arrange and attempt fresh journeys to Australia. Of course, they would also be able to report back on the tactics being used by the Australian navy and devise ways to circumvent them,

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:19 am

  34. Re Victoria @620: I expect that it would be playing well with the talkback crowd and with all those Western City voters stuck in traffic on the M4. If Indonesia makes bellicose noises or the UN expresses disapproval, much the better. Abbott knows that the people appalled by these latest developments would never vote for him anyway.

    by Steve777 on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:20 am

  35. Something does not add up.

    They have no clue how to govern.

    by confessions on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:20 am

  36. Steve777

    It took years to develop a good working relationship with Indonesia. Risking it in this way is beyond me

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:20 am

  37. WWP

    is the Australia Government not arresting and prosecuting the evil ones?

    I find this incomprehensible. I thought the idea was to stop the smugglers (Labor), not punish the refugees (Coalition).

    by lizzie on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:21 am

  38. What a surprise – not.

    Government by unelected faceless big business – for big business.

    BCA backs Aust Post sale: report

    The potential $3 billion privatisation of Australia Post has received strong backing from a leading business lobby group, according to The Australian Financial Review.

    The Business Council of Australia’s acting chief executive, Maria Tarrant, said significant changes to Australia Post's business model over recent years made it a more suitable fixture in the private sector.

    “If you think about Australia Post and the services it provides, many of those services are already provided in the private sector,” Ms Tarrant, told the AFR.

    ....BCA president Tony Shepherd is chairing the audit.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/17/national-affairs/bca-backs-aust-post-sale-report

    by dave on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:21 am

  39. “@janeenorman: Immigration Minister Scott Morrison will hold an Operation Sovereign Borders briefing at 0930 in Canberra – the second this week. #auspol”

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:22 am

  40. confessions

    I saw excerpt of Morrison’s presser the other day. He is seriously pleased with himself. He is so confident that they are on a winner with their tactics

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:22 am

  41. I find this incomprehensible. I thought the idea was to stop the smugglers (Labor), not punish the refugees (Coalition).

    Seems to be you are right and it is more throw out the refugees like subhuman trash to win votes – Adam can confirm we have that right.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:24 am

  42. guytaur

    Morrison must be even more confident. Holding an early presser today

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:25 am

  43. Government by unelected faceless big business – for big business.

    They have a face that’s what they have Tony for.

    by WeWantPaul on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:25 am

  44. I saw excerpt of Morrison’s presser the other day. He is seriously pleased with himself.

    He comes across as perpetually smug.

    Will make it all the more enjoyable when, not if he comes a gutsa.

    by dave on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:26 am

  45. Twice in one week?

    Interesting.

    by confessions on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:28 am

  46. Unemployment in Victoria has reached the highest level for more than a decade, as the Napthine government braces for further job losses in the lead-up to the November election.
    In a sign that the state’s labour market is continuing to wane, Victoria’s jobless rate lifted a notch in December to 6.2 per cent using the Bureau of Statistics less volatile trend measure.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/vic-jobless-rate-highest-in-a-decade-20140116-30xb0.html#ixzz2qbSjQ3Cj

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:29 am

  47. confessions

    As i said, Morrison is very pleased with himself

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:30 am

  48. victoria

    Its false confidence. From the published polling so far its not winning them votes

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:30 am

  49. guytaur

    The coalition expect it to improve their polling. Otherwise they would not be doing this.

    by victoria on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:31 am

  50. victoria

    I agree. However the polling so far dashes their expectations.

    Maybe Howard was saved by 9/11 and not boats after all

    by guytaur on Jan 17, 2014 at 9:32 am

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