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Seat of the week: Makin

Held by the Liberals throughout the Howard years, the north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin swung heavily to Labor in 2007 and 2010, and remains firmly in the party fold despite the 2013 election defeat.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. Together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north, Makin is one of three Adelaide seats which the Liberals held in the final term of the Howard government before blowing out to double-digit Labor margins at the 2010 election, and which remain securely in the Labor fold despite the 2013 election defeat. In Makin’s case the Labor margin reached 12.0% in 2010, before the 2013 swing reduced it to 5.1%.

Makin was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of the safe Labor seat of Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. It was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. A swing against Draper of 0.2% in 1998 compared with a statewide swing of 4.2%, and she consolidated her margin by 3.0% in 2001. Draper hit trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had breached parliamentary rules by taking a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, but she survived by 0.9% in the face of a swing that was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.

The seat was then won for Labor on the second attempt by Tony Zappia, who had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and was at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely thought to have been a victim of his factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann successfully prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia. The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term as he proved unable to win the seat, whereas Wortley was elected from the number three Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, Zappia performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since been elected as a Senator for Family First.

The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have been a backer of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenges, and of Anthony Albanese over Bill Shorten in the post-election leadership contest. After spending the period in government on the back bench, he won promotion after the election defeat to shadow parliamentary secretary for manufacturing.

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  • 51
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Abbott has always behaved weirdly. But nothing to date to suggest that he would do anything to jeopardise his positiion. He does self interest really well

  • 52
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    This from finny

    Australia & Indonesia are back to KONFRONTASI days of the 60s and @TonyAbbottMHR simply runs and hides

  • 53
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    Abbott has admitted to being a “grog monster”, trying to run the place surrounded by what he has to work with would be enough to weaken anyone’s resolve to stay off the bottle.

  • 54
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    Very true.

  • 55
    Smaug
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Abbott is and remains a cruiser. He doesn’t “do” anything, it has always been done for him. When he was in School/University Daddy and Mummy looked after him, if he got in trouble, daddy hires lawyers, if his grades weren’t so good, well he went to only the “best” schools.
    But, you say, Abbott is a Rhodes scholar. Yep, daddy organised it and Abbott got it through boxing which mainly consisted of the tool putting his head in front of someones fist until such time as the other person got sick of hitting him.
    Abbott couldn’t handle being a jesuit (I don’t for a minute believe the BS he puts forward as to why he didn’t complete his time at the seminary, it was too much work for him, pure and simple).
    His “connections” (and daddy again) got him a job as a journalist. God knows what he did as a journalist. I can’t seem to find anything that indicates he was even halfway talented in the field.
    He got his seat presented to him on a platter again, no effort on his part.
    He got to be leader of the opposition by chance.
    He got to be prime minister thanks to Murdoch and the IPA, again, no personal effort required on his part.
    Now that he is the PM, for the first time in his life, he is personally responsible and NO-ONE else can take the blame or responsibility off him. The buck stops with Abbott in every case, there is no-one else he can flick pass to. Think about it, he has never had to be responsible for anything, his personal financial situation was a basket case. His wife despises him (c’mon, every single interview with both of them included indicates through body language that she’d rather be kissing a dead lizard, there is NO affection that I can see between them).
    The man isn’t so much in above his head, he is several thousand leagues under the sea. The funny thing is the LNP know this and given their behavior over Rudd/Gillard and the likely electoral response to removing Abbott would be fatal to say the least they are keeping him hidden and managed. They can’t hide him when parliament is sitting but don’t expect to see too much of him outside of that.

  • 56
    leone
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Abbott doesn’t do the marathon events and triathlons any more, his last few triathlons have been partial – he’s done only the bike ride as part of a team – and he hasn’t done one at all for a couple of years now. His last run was last year’s City to Surf, so easy that little kids do it. You don’t need an athlete’s level of fitness for it. Pollie Pedal is done in easy stages and we don’t know what happens when the cameras leave. Ever wondered why an event that was once open to any politician is now strictly Coalition only? Scared a Labor MP might spill the beans?

    You might have seen that footage of Abbott ‘surprised’ after a surf a week or so ago. He was puffing and out of breath.

    Abbott is on record saying he needs his daily bike ride and gets edgy if he can’t do it. But riding a bike does not mean he is still super fit.

    There’s plenty of precedent for a leader hiding deteriorating health from his people. For example, Franklin D Roosevelt hid the extent of his polio paralysis from the US people very successfully. He even managed to make them believe he was getting better. Although he needed a wheelchair his public appearances were arranged and stage managed so it wasn’t present. He used crutches or was supported by aides. The truth was only revealed much later.

    Conspiracy theory? Maybe. But I still want to know why Abbott has been missing when there’s so much going on. He should be visiting fire victims and offering support, holidays or no holidays. He should have held a presser on the Indonesian thing. He didn’t. Where’s Tony?

  • 57
    MTBW
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Smaug

    That is a great summation of the man.

    I think you have nailed him.

    Being the only male in his family would also have meant indulgence.

  • 58
    MTBW
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    leone

    He should be visiting fire victims and offering support, holidays or no holidays. He should have held a presser on the Indonesian thing. He didn’t. Where’s Tony?

    In hiding! He basically has no idea.

  • 59
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    Smaug
    You are spot-on.

  • 60
    Smaug
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    MTBW,
    In future years Dictionary.com will display a picture of Abbott with the words “Spoilt brat”
    The fact that Abbott’s parents dotted on him and treated his sister as “the girl child” pretty much outlines why he is what he is.
    His desire to join an all male religious order, his awkwardness around woman and his aggressive anti-gay attitude makes me suspect he and his good mate Cori have a few more things hidden in the “closet” of denial than would, on the surface be apparent.

  • 61
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    mtbw
    He was mater and pater’s golden child, their only son.

  • 62
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    Someone remind me of the story about Latham who “went missing” over Christmas. That became a national scandal, according to the media.

  • 63
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    @DanJCass: Historic: Paramount to stop distributing movies on film #digital #cinema http://t.co/JiXfoKFkoz

  • 64
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    “@craigjack36: Good News Everybody
    Abbott come back from his second lot of Xmas Holidays Tomorrow
    I wonder if he has been out fighting fires ?
    #auspol”

  • 65
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    Abbott’s speaking pattern makeshift began immediately after he was so easily defeated and humiliated in a health debate against Rudd as opposition leader.

    Now, Abbott speaks very slowly thinking before muttering every word with lots of ummms and aaars and saliva swallowing.

    It serves two purposes, 1)it may hopefully perceive him to be more prime ministerial and 2) it may hopefully avoid him from putting his foot in it.

    I believe Abbott exercises strenuously to make himself feel in some way superior to compensate for his inferiority around the many others in his chosen profession.

  • 66
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Smaug – no need for anyone to write a biography of Tone now. You’ve boiled it down to its essentials.
    There was something spooky calm about Abbott during the election (meds?) that was way out of character.
    People say that Abbott’s negativity in opposition was a master-stroke. It wasn’t really. Abbott doesn’t have the mental flexibility or nous to do anything else.

  • 67
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    In some people’s eyes, this could be seen as a bribe. It also tells us that the Coal’s asylum policy is more important than any humanitarian considerations. Is the supply of a clean water supply “environmental” or “humanitarian”? Obviously less important to Liberal re-election than maintaining cages for refugees.

    Foreign minister Julie Bishop announced the cuts for the groups as well as a complete defunding of international environmental programs. The government is redirecting a pared back aid budget towards the region and maintenance of spending on countries such as Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and Nauru, whose co-operation is necessary for the success of its asylum policy.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/18/aid-groups-accuse-coalition-of-broken-promise-after-it-announces-new-aid-cuts

  • 68
    Astrobleme
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Sean Tisme was banned!!??

    HUZZAH!!!!

  • 69
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    I said from the time Abbott won the election, without bias, that I genuinely thought Abbott could not do the job of PM.

  • 70
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    CENTRE – There is no doubt that body-builders are putting on muscle because it’s armour to protect against low self-esteem.

  • 71
    Outsider
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    Abbott seminary time was in the Diocesan Seminary at Manly. A much shorter training period than required to become a Jesuit priest.

    Also looked for examples of Abbott journalism and came across this article relating to the closure of the seminary Abbott had attended. It’s a most perplexing read. Note it is dated February 1996.

    http://www.ad2000.com.au/articles/1996/feb1996p7_746.html

  • 72
    Astrobleme
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    I think Abbott’s speech pattern is an affectation to make him sound more like JWH.

    His choice of words and use of logic is interesting too, he tries to appeal to people with lower levels of education, and people who would use syllogisms as decision making tools.

    I don’t believe he is stupid or sick. I think he is good at playing a game. The game is ‘Hide my real intentions’

  • 73
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    I have no doubt that a lot of people who voted Liberal now regret it.

    This is not the government they voted for and no amount of spin or use of terms like teflon coating can change this.

  • 74
    leone
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Abbott comes back from holidays tomorrow and flies off to Davoz pretty much straight away. He’s taking Andrew Robb with him. Abbott makes his presentation on Thursday.
    http://theaustralian.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

  • 75
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Kevin17

    Well, it’s probably the only thing Abbott thinks he can do that he’s good at doing.

  • 76
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    smaug

    Spot on assessment.

    He is the PM and the buck does stop with him. He said wtte that they woukd be a govt of no excuses and no surprises and that the buck stops with him.

    He cant play hide and seek for much longer

  • 77
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    WTF

    How many holidays is he (Abbott) taking?

    France – cricket – holidays again.

    He’s another GW Bush. Dubya used to run the US from the golf course.

  • 78
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    My question is what is Labor doing. Abbott and team in opposition would have been on every media available day after day talking about incompetent government.

    Well now we really have one Labor should be everywhere in the face of the public. The Greens have been getting more media than Labor.

    Where are they?

  • 79
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    314 million dollars spent on advertising by Vic govt. Yet TAFE funding was slashed. Not happy Jan!

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/victorian-government-defends-314-million-spent-on-advertising-20140118-311ty.html

  • 80
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    So it would appear that Scott Morrison gave the Navy orders to do ‘whatever it takes’ to stop and turn back asylum seekers, probably in a way that gives him plausible deniability.

    Senate enquiry now.

  • 81
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Steve777

    Yep. Senate enquiry is in order

  • 82
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    uytaur,
    No, I don’t think they do regret it. A war with Indonesia might clear the delusions, maybe. Australians have turned into greedy racist selfish arskeholes.

  • 83
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    Good cartoon

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MissKayeSera/status/424685115168391168/photo/1

  • 84
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    I am hoping Labor are busy doing their homework.

  • 85
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    mari@6

    yes look on last night’s posts on previous thread sean told another PBer ‘To top themselves” disgusting I have friends who have lost a son through suicide and many PBers complained to William

    Hi mari, how long ago did that happen to your friends?
    Have they received appropriate support?

  • 86
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    It was Abbott’s Mother who rang Abbott’s finance on the wedding day to tell her that Abbott had changed his mind.

    Run away Abbott avoids making tough calls

  • 87
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    AA

    Hahahaha

    How do you know that?

  • 88
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    Fran Barlow@41

    From defunct thread…

    I have long found Adams a genial chap to listen to in short bursts, but what I did find annoying was his tendency to talk over the often very interesting guests and to put words into their mouths, often when they were coming to the point he inserted over their commentary or else when they were about to go somewhere more interesting to me.

    I’m not sure whether this was Adams showing he knew stuff or whether he really was just over enthusiastic about the guest’s particular corpus of expertise, but in a short show it was really annoying.

    What I think it shows is that Adams has done his preparation well, knows about his subject and what they have to say, and seeks to cut to the chase by leading his subject.

    To prepare to the level Adams appears to do, takes either an impossible amount of background knowledge or a lot of work.

  • 89
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    I read it ages ago in an article, I think it was David Marr who wrote it.

  • 90
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    AA

    I was under impression it was mother who called fiancee to call off wedding, but not on the actual day.

    I coukd be wrong, but Abbott’s former fiancee has since passed away

  • 91
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    My question is what is Labor doing. Abbott and team in opposition would have been on every media available day after day talking about incompetent government.

    Well now we really have one Labor should be everywhere in the face of the public. The Greens have been getting more media than Labor.

    Where are they?

    Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
    Napoleon Bonaparte

  • 92
    rossmcg
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    Bemused

    While I admit to being an Adams fan, I have always thought that is is likely he has very good producers and is probably very good a mastering a brief before he does his interviews.

  • 93
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    A good example of how Tones has long been a Murdoch pet. From 2005

    A Walkley-award winning journalist, Julie-Anne Davies, got a tip some weeks ago about Abbott being reunited with his son. She approached Abbott, who confirmed it but asked her to hold off publishing the story in order to give him time to talk to relevant people. The magazine could have run the story last week but agreed to Abbott's request. He then betrayed them.
    Last Sunday afternoon, just after Davies had filed her story, Abbott rang his good friend Piers Ackerman.......

    ......................, readers of News Ltd papers around the country enjoyed the unusual treat of a folksy front-page story from Ackerman - his first page one since 2001 - the spin on which set the tone for the radio and television frenzy that followed. The story stressed the "Thank you for having me",

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2005/02/24/1109180038442.html

  • 94
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Astro

    Sean Tisme was banned!!??

    He actually decided to stop posting when he realised he’d said something very stupid.

    William agreed that what he had said was beyond the pale.

    Actually banned, I don’t know.

  • 95
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Job losses will cause a reduction in revenue and an increase in costs as more people join the dole queue for this Abbott Govt.

    Add the revenue reduction of $3.4 billion in tax changes that Labor had planned to implement and now abandoned by the Abbott Govt, the repealing of the changes to stop FBT rorts worth another $1.8 billion, the planned repeal of the MRRT and carbon price, the repealing of the tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000 per year and we can easily see that the Abbott Govt is heading for increased debt and ballooning deficits.

    That well and regularly promised surplus is getting further and further away from fruition.

  • 96
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Re Lizzie @62 – I’d forgotten about Mark Latham going missing over December / January 2004/5. There were raised eyebrows when he made no appearance to offer condolences to victims of the Boxing Day Tsunami disaster. And he was only Leader of the Opposition. In that case it turned out to be a health crisis, possibly not unrelated to stress.

    After the way Tony fought tooth and nail for the job, his apparent disappearance does seem odd, especially given the multiple crises his new Government has to deal with (mostly of its own making, not Labor’s). Abbott does not seem like someone who likes to exercise power from the shadows. More of a tool of those who do, which means he needs to be upfront. Actually more of a tool full stop.

  • 97
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    AA

    I was under impression it was mother who called fiancee to call off wedding, but not on the actual day.
    =================================================

    I read the article a far while ago. Due to dimming memory, I would argue about when Mummy made the call for him.

    My point was more about his lack of internal fortitude and courage

  • 98
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    Sean will be back (in some guise) because you are his only family and he gets off on your attacks.

  • 99
    leone
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    This is the charming young sailor who is being investigated by the navy.
    http://theantibogan.wordpress.com/2014/01/18/jamie-patton-adf-navy-deals-with-asylum-seekers/

    You will notice a comment there from Ralph Cerminara. Jamie has such lovely friends. Cerminara is president of ADL – Australian Defence League, an anti-Islam group of nasties. How many defence personnel have links to this mob? I don’t think young Jamie is the only one. Here’s a bit about Cerminara -
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2013/07/01/anti-islam-group-seeks-expand

    His Twitter account
    https://twitter.com/PresidentADL

    The ADL website – enter at own risk.
    http://www.australiandefenceleague.com.au/

    For balance, here’s an anti-ADL group.
    http://aaadl.blogspot.com.au/

  • 100
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    rossmcg@92

    Bemused

    While I admit to being an Adams fan, I have always thought that is is likely he has very good producers and is probably very good a mastering a brief before he does his interviews.

    I too am something of an Adams fan.
    Yes, he does not work alone and his producers and any other staff share some of the credit.

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