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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 21, 2014

Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The ever-reliable Essential Research still has the Coalition with its nose in front on two-party preferred, but down two points on the primary vote. However, expectations for the future of the economy and various other indicators paint a very worrying picture for the government.

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Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).

On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1416 comments

1,416 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

  1. Tom it is valid point to call for natural monopolies to be Government owned but i suspect the main reasons why the politicians don’t want to own them is by doing so they become directly responsible for

    -Any pricing decisions
    -The risk of having events effect the community

    We saw this in the 1990s when the state of Victoria removed tram conductors partly as they didn’t want to continuing dealing the union.

    The ultimate decision to privatise the PT system occurred after an industrial dispute.

    The Pollies use privatising as a means of reducing direct responsibility.

    There are some natural monopolies which occur from the private sector and can only be overcome by new entrances to the market which can be difficult hence part of the reason the natural monopoly occurred.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    And herein lies a big problem for such legislation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/legal-eagles-punch-holes-in-mandatory-sentence-plan-20140122-31965.html
    Do these doctors really know who they’re asking to show leadership?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/push-for-national-summit-on-violence-20140122-3196q.html
    Speaking of leadership, how’s this? (Apparently there is a cartoon in the GG on this subject saying business will lead the way – until the next GFC!).
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-tells-davos-let-business-lead-way/story-fn59niix-1226808069849#
    The idiot just can’t help himself.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-prods-indonesia-over-boat-turnbacks-20140122-31972.html
    From the Royal Commission yesterday.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/22/royal-commission-church-role-as-facilitator-of-healing-is-questioned
    Now the Winter Olympics WILL be worth watching (at times).
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/hg-nelson-and-rampaging-roy-slaven-sign-with-ten-to-bring-russian-revolution-from-sochi-20140123-hv9hx.html
    Alan Moir brings a large-nosed Pyne out for a run.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/01/22/5096886/shpmoirjan23-20140122163630978935-600×400.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox on Gallic political values.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Pat Campbell doesn’t think Australian politics is too bullish at the moment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    David Rowe – Abbott in Switzerland. (What is Morriscum eating?)
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO