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Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The ever-reliable Essential Research still has the Coalition with its nose in front on two-party preferred, but down two points on the primary vote. However, expectations for the future of the economy and various other indicators paint a very worrying picture for the government.

Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).

On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.

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  • 101
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    Go Phil! He is a class act.

  • 102
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

    mari – In the Libs? Yep, no doubt.

  • 103
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    Interesting article on Solar contridicting an article in the AFR which rubbished the performance of solar

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/1/21/wind-power/solar-pv-was-heatwave-saviour

  • 104
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-targets-eddie-obeids-millions-made-in-corrupt-coal-deal-20140121-3165z.html

    “The state government is set to pass extraordinary laws to strip corrupt former Labor minister Eddie Obeid and his family of at least $30 million in profits from a coal deal at the centre of a historic corruption probe.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-targets-eddie-obeids-millions-made-in-corrupt-coal-deal-20140121-3165z.html#ixzz2r0QtOWaC

  • 105
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    CTAR1

    Yes I meant the Libs

  • 106
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    CTar1@98

    mari


    Think any truth in this?


    I take all things on IA with a grain of salt. The have a bulshit way of making arguments.

    I.e. The members of the Melbourne Club they name just happen to be Victorians. Abbott is, of course, from Sydney.

    Well isn’t that amazing!

    A group of Melbourne Club members are Victorians!

    Now, just remind me where Melbourne is? :lol:

  • 107
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

    mb – I haven’t read all the contributions on the topic, but my impression was the attacks over power cuts were related more to wind power rather than solar because one of the very hot days was very calm over both SA and Victoria resulting in a significant drop off in wind power that day when demand was very high.

  • 108
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

    Beamer- the AFR is just a bulletin board for the cash-for-comment machine called the Institute for Public Affairs.

  • 109
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    That debate here a few days ago about the powers of State governments to pass any old kind of legislation was prescient.

  • 110
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    92
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 3:38 pm | PERMALINK
    I am waiting for my phone call from Bill Shorten at 6.30 tonight, will let bludgers know what he says, (if you’se are nice and play well together).

    We are always nice. :)

  • 111
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    mari

    After a wee bit of hoots mon yesterday a “big” story from NZ today which shows it is alive and well over there.

    Anthony Earl was the other firefighter who helped in the rescue of the boy's hand.

    "The mother had three wee kiddies there, she was very distressed to see her boy in pain. It definitely wasn't her fault. The wee boy was very stoic, he didn't cry," said Mr Bowden

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11189875

  • 112
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    Poroti 111

    Love it, I thought it would have been in Dunedin or Invercargill they are the real scottish towns arn’t they?

  • 113
    Roxanna
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much every to get worse

    William, is there a word missing here? Or should it be “everything”?

  • 114
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Sounds like the Nauru sackings are to do with what our government wants. Look where they wanted the cases heard. No press for sure there.

    Amid the judicial crisis, it has also emerged that both Mr Law and Justice Eames resisted the Nauruan government's push for the trials of asylum seekers charged with rioting to be held inside the island's detention centre, rather than in open court.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/naurus-justice-department-details-complaints-against-magistrate-peter-law-20140121-316hp.html

  • 115
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Shorten is actually a more substantial figure intellectually than many on the left give him credit for. His campaign for national disability insurance was by no means original, but it was effective in moving the issue up Labor’s policy agenda. We still have a long way to go until 2019, but if a robust and comprehensive national disability scheme does get implemented, Shorten will have played an instrumental role in one of the largest extensions of the Australian welfare state in decades.

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/01/21/shorten-needs-talk-about-inequality

  • 116
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    mari

    Yes but that particular word is all over.

  • 117
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    Or should it be “everything”?

    Corrected.

  • 118
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Poroti116

    In the south Island mainly? I have friends in Auckland who never use it

  • 119
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    Such a public event to elect a new leader was always going to cultivate internal & external rivalry/divisiveness.
    One reaps what one sows.

    Yeah coz the leadership was never an issue under the old system with Rudd or Gillard.

    Thumps face into desk.

  • 120
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse

    A cunning plan from the LNP . Get people thinking 100% of things will head south so when “only” 75% of things head south people will feel great relief and think it an LNP success.

  • 121
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: Kevin Andrews on @BreakfastNews says the disability pension is a ‘set and forget system’ where people qualify and rarely reassessed.”

    So I guess the several reviews I have had over the years (under both sides of politics) were just my fevered imagination?

  • 122
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    Funny how Kevin Andrews talks about 5 million people receiving “Welfare” (horrid US term) and the media go into a conniption fit over Newstart and DSP (a mere 1.5 million).

    Andrews is kite flying, but one area he is almost silent on is “Parenting Payments”.

    If you receive:

    Baby Bonus
    Child Care Benefit
    Child Care Rebate
    Dad and Partner Pay
    Family Tax Benefit
    Newborn Upfront Payment and Newborn Supplement
    Parental Leave Pay
    Parenting Payment
    Schoolkids Bonus
    Single Income Family Supplement

    Look out, Andrews is looking at your bank balance.

  • 123
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    Shellbell

    Thanks for the NSW Bar Association statement.

    At last someone is calling for enforcement of the existing Responsible Service of Alcohol law.

    And of course as the statement points out, the moment politicians endorse mandatory sentencing you know for sure they don’t give a shit about finding an effective solution and are happy just to endorse the ignorant populist view that tough sentences will effect (for the better) the cognitions of people who are already drunk.

  • 124
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    mari

    The pointy bit above Auckland use it. Lots of Scots settlers and all that. As for people from Auckland the rest of the country refer to them “affectionately” ;) as JAFAs . ( Just another fricken Aucklander )

  • 125
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:41 pm | PERMALINK
    Such a public event to elect a new leader was always going to cultivate internal & external rivalry/divisiveness.
    One reaps what one sows.

    Yeah coz the leadership was never an issue under the old system with Rudd or Gillard.

    Thumps face into desk.

    Careful with that face or you may need a cosmetic surgeon?

    :devil:

  • 126
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    Poroti

    Many thanks for my Kiwi lesson

  • 127
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    Things I think Andrews will do to social security payments.

    Change the indexation for pensions from the highest of CPI, PCPI or MAWOTE to the lowest.

    Abolish the June 30th $600 or $1200 Carer supplement.

    Tighten Family Tax benefit part B. Change the 35% care limit to 50%

    Sneaky tweaks more than the reform required.

  • 128
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    mari

    Careful with that face or you may need a cosmetic surgeon?

    :devil:

    PB has an excellent tree surgeon we can recommend ;)

  • 129
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Fairfax’s Peter Martin is suggesting that andrews will want to close the gap between Newstart and the DSP, which is about 250 dollars a fortnight, anyone care to suggest how this might happen?
    My bet it won’t be by increasing Newstart.
    he also rabbits on about how five million Australians are on benefits. Perhaps he might like to give a breakdown of how many of those are middle classes getting the non means tested family tax payments. Or rich superannuants who arrange their affairs so they can collect just a few dollars of the age pension but all the benefits that go with it.

  • 130
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    Some may be interested in this -

    ANNUAL REPORT TO US CONGRESS

    Military and Security Developments

    Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013

    http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf

  • 131
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    Excellent critique of Pyne and his bogus curriculum war in Crikey.

    As for the national curriculum, review it when it has been operating for at least three of four years, but for goodness sake, put in a credible review team. And get a better minister.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/21/our-education-curriculum-was-not-political-it-will-be-if-pyne-gets-his-way/

  • 132
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    Why doesn’t the government introduce a wealth tax?

    In principle, I’m DEADLY against wealth taxes. Taxes should be applied fairly to all. Of course billionaires and mega millions don’t pay taxes fairly – that’s problem!

    I believe people should be taxed ONCE and that should not be based on their wealth but on earnings. You hit them once, hard, but fairly with a PROGRESSIVE system of taxation – somewhat similar to coy tax.

    But when we have the situation where 85 people own more than half of the entire wealth in the world – we have a BIG problem.

    In the interim, lets tax mega millionaires at, say 10% above $100 million, 25% above $500 million and 50% above $1 billion.

    You get them to prepare a properly audited PERSONAL balance sheet and give them the following financial year to liquidate and pay the tax office.

    They’ve got more money than they can spend or ever need anyway.

    This useless Abbott government can weaken the power of spending, with their smokescreen commission of audit, at its own peril!

  • 133
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    9poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 5:17 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Careful with that face or you may need a cosmetic surgeon?

    :devil:

    Funny I was thinking of the same recommendation :grin:

    PB has an excellent tree surgeon we can recommend ;)

  • 134
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    dave

    Great link, thanks.

    I wonder what the real report said?

  • 135
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    The Essential figures on refugees is disgraceful. 47% think most are not genuine for god’s sake. I feel ashamed to be an Australian sometimes.

  • 136
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    If Andrews is worried about the aging population, how about increasing the Super Levy to 20%.

    Bye bye old age pension in 30 years.

  • 137
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    I wonder what the real report said?

    BW – thinking the same as I scan through it. :)

  • 138
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Yesiree Bob@11

    Yes, bring back Macguire Bob the eternal optimist, where is he?

  • 139
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    Just further to post 132.

    Say Packer must prepare a properly audited personal balance sheet as at 30/6/14.

    His net wealth may be say exactly $7 billion.

    Packer then has the following financial year to liquidate 50% of $6 billion to pay the tax office.

    That’s $3 bloody billion with just one person.

    He will never go hungry without any food don’t worry.

    Let’s go for it :shock:

  • 140
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    mh

    Of course most are genuine. There are around 45,000,000 genuine refugees. Many millions more are being created every year.

    And, really, that is before the hundreds of millions of climate change refugees get mobilized whether they want to or not.

    As Stalin is reported to have said, quantity has a quality all of its own.

  • 141
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    oh oh

  • 142
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar, naughty.

  • 143
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Somebody left the door to the italics cupboard open again.

  • 144
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Closed it.

  • 145
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    Bees have virtually disappeared from our vegie garden this summer. Germination of certain vegetables has stalled. Other amateur jardinier bee watchers are saying the same.

    Was bist?

  • 146
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar – the first step is to admit you have a problem with italics.

    Then you need to go cold turkey on italics – you know you can’t handle them even in small quantities.

    And make sure you visit your Italics Anonymous group regularly to receive support for when you feel yourself slipping and wanting to go on a slant binge.

  • 147
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    William
    My fault. Thank you.

  • 148
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar – the first step is to admit you have a problem with italics.

    Then you need to go cold turkey on italics – you know you can’t handle them even in small quantities.

    And make sure you visit your Italics Anonymous group regularly to receive support for when you feel yourself slipping and wanting to go on a slant binge.

    I prefer to think that italics have a problem with me.

  • 149
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill @76

    Nice post, good to see you back on form (not that you ever weren’t).

    BTW, someone asked the produce for the ABC – In Bed with Julia why they didn’t make a similar series on Abbott. The reply was WTTE that the didn’t think Abbott was an interesting enough person.

    I still feel sick about what happened with Julia Gillard.

  • 150
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    Morrison is probably not going to get away with crossing his fingers behind his back and stating that the seismic fracture in Nauru’s governance has got nothing to do with Australia in general or with the Abbott Government’s asylum seeker policies in particular.

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