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BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn’t abated.

It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

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  • 701
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    I Can well understand how difficult it must have been.

  • 702
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    So far the “redshirt” democratic forces have not taken to the streets – I’m not sure why.

    Would the police or army act against them??

  • 703
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    victoria@689

    Boerwar

    As pointed out by bemused, losing a child has to be the worst

    By a factor of 10 or more.
    Losing an only child … I cannot even imagine. :(
    Losing more than one child …. likewise.

    But these things happen.

    The only true ‘healer’ is time. But there is never a complete recovery, just acceptance.

  • 704
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    BK

    Someone has to draw the line somewhere. For this drug, the PBAC rejected it as it said it cost about $2M for each year of extra life.

    These are the kinds of decisions we will increasingly have to make as a society as the health budget dwarfs all other expenses.

  • 705
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    Psephos
    Have they been able to get the crown princess to put on some clothes?

    (Don’t answer if you are at risk of lese majeste)

  • 706
    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    So Abbott has aligned our country with the Tea Party.
    Is it time to consider saying that we are ashamed to be Australian?

  • 707
    kezza2
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    fess

    confessions
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:01 pm | PERMALINK
    I refuse to watch Abbott overseas embarrassing us back home.

    Oh, isn’t he the complete jerk! What a bloody embarrassment.

    NewsRadio played his dickheadedness re Syria (goodies vs baddies, or goodies vs goodies FFS are we living in a MAD comic? – enough to make you vomit)before they got into the “complexity” of the situation. Marvellous stuff.

    BTW, I hope you’re being comforted in your situation. Take care.

  • 708
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear you almost feel sorry for Morrison. Almost.

    #breaking over 20 staff and at least one #asylumseeker diagnosed with malaria at Manus Island

  • 709
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    While i was watching the last of Abbott’s speech tonight, what struck me was how much he was hesitating and reading.

    Compare and contrast with Gillard or Rudd giving a speech. They would have notes, but would give the impression at least that they knew what they wanted to say and were actually talking to the audience, not reading a statement.

  • 710
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    bemused, victoria

    But there is never a complete recovery, just acceptance.

    In many, many cases it leads to the end of marriages.

  • 711
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    How can any political party foist this bogan on their country to represent us overseas? It is beyond embarrassing. :( ]

    How good was the best speech the fine Australian Public Service could convince him to stumble through?

  • 712
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    So Abbott has aligned our country with the Tea Party.

    Will Sarah Palin be flown out to speak at future Liberal party national conferences?

    Semi-serious question btw, after what we’ve seen so far.

  • 713
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    Is Abbott still going on about goodies and baddies in Syria?

    If so, there is a foolproof way to tell them apart.

    The good guys wear white hats and the bad guys wear black hats.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_hat_(film)

  • 714
    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    How good was the best speech the fine Australian Public Service could convince him to stumble through?

    Rather Credlin and her hirelings!

  • 715
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    ru

    Oh dear you almost feel sorry for Morrison. Almost.

    #breaking over 20 staff and at least one #asylumseeker diagnosed with malaria at Manus Island

    I’m amazed they weren’t taking preventive medications.

    Not exactly providing a safe work environment.

  • 716
    Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Edwina StJohn,

    OK, I am only going to say this once. After a long struggle with my gender identity, I have decided to live my life as the women I have always felt myself to be. I hope you all will respect my choice. I will not be discussing this any further.
    Thank You

    Gad, sir! What a ruse! What a corker of a plan! Becoming a girl so that you get all the inside running in the Pollbludger ladies’ toilet on what all the bolshie pacifist bimbos on this benighted blog are up to!

    You are a true Trojan Filly, sir! Infiltrate the cads from the inside, where they don’t like it up ‘em, the bounders!

    Gad, sir! I wish my old Intelligence Officer during the Malay Campaign, Lt Smelley Jockstrap, had been like you! His idea of gathering intelligence on those girlie guerrilla types was to dress up like Dame Edna, and chat them up in the bar by asking them to play, “I spy”!

    Anyhow, old bean, I might see you in the Officers’ Lounge tonight. Don’t forget to wear your tutu and I’ll buy you a pink gin or two. Toodle-pip!

  • 717
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Dio:

    I don’t think it is only a matter of cost, I think there is some doubt about efficacy as well.

    I have a quick squizz at this trial:
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23738544

    It is funded by the company that makes the drug, it is not randomised and the endpoint of 1 trial is a blood result rather than a clinically important outcome and “Alexion Pharmaceuticals and Infusion Communications provided medical-writing support” which is always, always a concern!

  • 718
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    My view is that the Army doesn’t want to stage a coup, because of the international odium they would attract, and because they didn’t enjoy their last stint in power. But they won’t lift a finger to help the government either. They see themselves as a neutral force, answerable only to the King.

    If there was serious fighting between red and yellowshirts the army would intervene against the redshirts. The police are a bit more divided in their loyalties apparently (Thaksin was a police general).

    Crown Princess Sirindorn is vastly more popular than the Crown Prince, and officially has equal status as heir apparent, but no-one knows if it’s legal for Thailand to have a queen regnant, and of course she has no husband or children.

    Afternoon teatime. Back later.

  • 719
    kezza2
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    vic

    I recall saying to my OH and the PP wtte “are you boys feeling refreshed after your morning nap”

    Wonderful. I bet they felt on the backfoot, after getting you along to tell you your place.

    And thence started the marriage . . . Well done.

  • 720
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    kezza:

    For me, Abbott has been both unsurprising but full of surprises in terms of how hopeless a PM he is.

  • 721
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Rather Credlin and her hirelings!

    That bad?

  • 722
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Abbott exeunt Right.

    Sign of the times. Rouhani packed out the hall. everyone is leaving before Tony Abbott explains Australia's ambitions for the G20 in 2014

  • 723
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    Probably have to show that you have been bitten by a mosquito before you get a an anti malaria tablet. and you can only have one at a time. These things cost money you know.

  • 724
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Everything

    It clearly didn’t always work which accounts for the $2M per QALY cost for a drug that costs a lot less than that.

  • 725
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh dear you almost feel sorry for Morrison. Almost.

    #breaking over 20 staff and at least one #asylumseeker diagnosed with malaria at Manus Island

    Isn’t this where the ALP was bragging it was going to send women and children?

  • 726
    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Rouhani packed out the hall. everyone is leaving before Tony Abbott explains Australia's ambitions for the G20 in 2014

    His reputation precesed him?

  • 727
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear you almost feel sorry for Morrison. Almost.

    #breaking over 20 staff and at least one #asylumseeker diagnosed with malaria at Manus Island

    This is old hat.

    The Dutch colonists had a prison camp in West Irian for Indonesian political prisoners – Boven Digul or Boven Digoel. Lots of prisoners died of malaria – even though the NEI produced over three quarters of the world’s quinine in 1939.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boven-Digoel

  • 728
    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Everything
    Health check shortcuts?

  • 729
    kezza2
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    psephos

    So far the “redshirt” democratic forces have not taken to the streets – I’m not sure why.

    I don’t know what to make of that. Nor your previous statement about the govt being unable to order the police or military to clear the streets.

    Smells like Teen Democracy?

  • 730
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Indeed loss and grief are too much for some marriages to survive

  • 731
    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    They’ve got a long long way to go!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-23/an-indian-village-council-orders-gang-rape-as-punishment/5216096

  • 732
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything
    Health check shortcuts?

    I would be shocked if the government was trying to save money by cutting malaria testing, it aint that expensive!

  • 733
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    BK
    Disgraceful.

  • 734
    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar
    What is it that could lead a person to order that and for others to carry it out?

  • 735
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Malaria is from mossies, of course, so it is a problem whenever people without immunity are moved to areas with malaria without adequate protections. Even with adequate protections (nets, air conditioning and insecticide sprays along with oral prophylaxis) you are likely to get it if you stay long enough.

  • 736
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Rouhani packed out the hall. everyone is leaving before Tony Abbott explains Australia's ambitions for the G20 in 2014

    Hilarious. The G20 audience have ripped off one of Tony’s own tricks he reserves for the Canberra press gallery and are playing it back on him!

  • 737
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything
    Health check shortcuts?

    I would be shocked if the government was trying to save money by cutting malaria testing, it aint that expensive!

    When a government makes it clear that it is willing to do anything and everything it thinks it can get away with to vilify, demonise, dehumanise and brutalise people then, right at the bottom of the pile, the relative ‘costs’ calculus changes. It is, IMHO, why there are a lack of transparency is so important to Morrison, Bishop and Abbott. For with transparency comes accountability.

    It is sort of inevitable, IMHO.

  • 738
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    victoria@730

    Boerwar

    Indeed loss and grief are too much for some marriages to survive

    I could never figure that out.
    I would have expected people to cling together in their shared grief.

  • 739
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    Kezza2

    OH and PP were putty in my hands. :D

  • 740
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar
    What is it that could lead a person to order that and for others to carry it out?

    Rape is still fairly pervasive in our society, IMHO. We currently have a Royal Commission looking into it inside our churches and other institutions, and we have a secret process inside the ADF which is dealing with large numbers of cases as well.

    IMHO, power without accountability, poor cultural values, an inability to see women as real people and real individuals are part of it.

    It is an absolutely typical element in wars. Dehumanisation, brutalisation, death and a lack of transparency and accountability of soldiers are common elements. But you will never be hearing the war mongers talking about rape when they urge wars.

    I loathe it.

  • 741
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    bemused
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    victoria@730

    Boerwar

    Indeed loss and grief are too much for some marriages to survive

    I could never figure that out.
    I would have expected people to cling together in their shared grief.

    There is very often a confusion about cause and causation/responsibility and accountability for the death that leads to terrible guilt. People torture themselves and each other with ‘If only I had…’ or ‘If only you had…’. If these are not resolved the acid can eat out the relationship.

  • 742
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Malaria is from mossies, of course, so it is a problem whenever people without immunity are moved to areas with malaria without adequate protections. Even with adequate protections (nets, air conditioning and insecticide sprays along with oral prophylaxis) you are likely to get it if you stay long enough.

    And here I was thinking you caught it off toilet seats.

  • 743
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    In some cases relationships become stronger, and others break under the pressure

  • 744
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Time for bed. Goodnight all.

  • 745
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    True but there would be shed loads of “if only” and “If you had of” etc.

  • 746
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar
    ....And here I was thinking you caught it off toilet seats.

    …no thats HIV

  • 747
    feeney
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    About 6 years ago, when working in the Neuroscience ward, we had a young male, aged 18, who had an inoperable brain tumour.

    The tumour first surfaced when he was 16, whilst at secondary college, and returned when he was 18 in his first year of Uni.

    He was an only child. A great athlete. Academic excellence. Dux and Captain of his leading private boys’ school in Brisbane.

    He was the perfect patient to care for – no complaints, no special demands. He endured goodness knows how much chemotherapy over this period.

    He loved all sport, in particular cricket, constantly watching the TV. When feeding him – he had lost a lot of his abilities by this stage – he would nod his head when he was ready for the next bit of food, and in his own way say “thank you”.

    I completed my shift that afternoon, said goodbye to him, and returned the next morning to find his bed empty. Staff were crying, for obvious reasons.

    He was transferred to ICU overnight, he had deteriorated so quickly.

    The most heartbreaking and moving part of all of this? His mates from his college gathered in ICU around his bed and sang the school song and Advance Australia Fair.

    His parents were of course present. You can imagine their state at this time.

    He then quietly passed away with the boys softly singing, his parents around him, and staff trying to control their emotions.

    To this day, I think of this young fellow regularly, and his parents. How do they cope with the loss of their only child – a loving, brilliantly gifted boy who had so much to give.

    At the Hospital where I work, we have to get on with our jobs and with our lives.

    But just how would his parents do the same?

    Life is difficult to understand and cope with sometimes.

  • 748
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    Night boerwar

  • 749
    kezza2
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 9:38 pm | PERMALINK
    Boerwar
    What is it that could lead a person to order that and for others to carry it out?

    ‘It’ being:

    "The girl and her lover were tied to two separate trees and fined 25,000 rupees ($US400) each as a fine for having an affair."

    The man apparently involved with the girl was freed after he agreed to pay the fine within a week.

    The woman was recovering from the attack in a hospital.

    Well, BK, it is a situation in British Law where women were regarded as “chattels” – possessions, belongings, and you can do with them whatever you want. And men, get off scot free, and women are forever punished.

    That’s why.

    And I know you don’t think like that, feel like that, but that’s where British/Christian law took us in the colonies.

    It’s what labelled women as sluts for having sex, and men as studs for doing the same.

    I can’t tell you often enough that women are sick of arguing for sovereignty over their own bodies.

    And now we’re back in the dark ages about whether or not we decide to bear a child. Courtesy of Bernardi and Abbott.

    The Indian situation, where rape of a woman is considered just punishment for having sex outside marriage, is to make sure she has the multiple opportunity to be impregnated and to have a child, and not to abort it – as per the rotten Christianity prevalent from Mother Stinking Theresa.

    Women will keep fighting. Roe v Wade wasn’t an aberration.

  • 750
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    feeney

    Heartbreaking stuff. :(

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