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BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn’t abated.

It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

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  • 801
    Everything
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    bemused
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything@792
    Abbott inherited the AAA economy from a government that inherited it from Howard.
    …who never had to deal with a GFC.

    Howard protected us from the GFC.

    Had we gone into the GFC with Rudd/Gillard levels of debt and deficit, God only knows what economicatastrophe we would have faced….

  • 802
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    I caught a few minutes of ABC Classic FM today in which David Marr was interviewing the new Human Rights Commissioner, Tim Wilson. Wilson, it seems to me, is an extreme-speech idealist. For example, he supports the advertising of tobacco products and the right of individuals and corporations to publish material that may vilify or degrade individuals or groups. He also seems to regard personal liberty and corporate liberty as interchangeable.

    Wilson is a strong advocate. It’s got me thinking but it hasn’t made me happy.

    A lot of what we understand by rights these days is about the protection of individuals from the consequences of the acts (speech) of others, including especially corporations, who have the means to broadcast to a wide public. In this respect, we have established limitations on marketing rights.

    Wilson wants to change this. He wants marketing rights to be construed in the same way as are individuals’ rights to hold opinions, voice political views, dress themselves or express themselves creatively. But these are not the same kind things. Marketing rights are a form of property right. They make possible the creation of brands, the monoplisation of product markets and the monetisation of imagery and textual material. Broadly, marketing rights are the means by which speech is turned into money. It follows that whoever controls the rights to market products also controls consumer spending and the profits that can be derived from it.

    In the guise of Human Rights Commissioner, Wilson has been appointed our first Commissioner for Corporate Marketing Rights. This is a watershed. In the name of free speech, consumer protection is about to be seriously infringed and, perhaps, rescinded entirely.

  • 803
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Before I call it a night. Abbott talks about mountain climbing at davos. This is for real. Honestly this man is truly out of his depth

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGMeXeFfZRw&sns=em

  • 804
    kezza2
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    You don’t merit more.

    And you merit nothing other the recognition of an ability to count.

    So what.

    You have no argument about women, feminist or not, other than the weak male’s claptrap about pseudo feminism.

    Dumb gay clucks really give me the shits. You like to think you have some insight, but you have none.

    But you sure like to trade of feminine sympathies.

  • 805
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    @kezza/803

    Abbott should have stayed in Sport, he isn’t fit to be a minister let alone a PM for a country.

    Lots of money to be made in Sport:
    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/yankees–masahiro-tanaka-agree-on-seven-year—155-million-deal-150329915.html

  • 806
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    I mean Victoria not Kezza :) at post 805.

  • 807
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    Wilson hails from IPA Land. His views on matters pertaining to civil liberties should therefore be viewed in that context.

    Once again with the appointment of Wilson as an HRC, the coalition govt proves that it is incapable of governing in the national interest, choosing instead to govern in the narrow, self interests of its supporters and cheer squad.

  • 808
    Wakefield
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Consultation on “Green army” open till 4 Feb. One of the bad things the labor Govt did was change Greencorp into a shell of its useful previous life.

    http://www.environment.gov.au/topics/cleaner-environment/clean-land/green-army/draft-statement-requirements

  • 809
    Henry
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    “Howard protected us from the GFC.

    Had we gone into the GFC with Rudd/Gillard levels of debt and deficit, God only knows what economicatastrophe we would have faced….”

    You idiot mod lib, Howard protected us from nothing. It’s about the response not the debt and as many experts show Rudd/Gillard got it spot on.

  • 810
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    803
    victoria

    Before I call it a night. Abbott talks about mountain climbing at davos. This is for real. Honestly this man is truly out of his depth

    …out of his depth, or elevated beyond his ability??

    See you, victoria

  • 811
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    I suspect Abbott would have stuffed up playing sport as well. He is an embarrassment.

    Enjoy the rest of your trip.

    Night all

  • 812
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    The best organised womens group in Afghanistan opposed the US led invasion because they argued that it would weaken their struggle.

    A handful of communists who represented no-one.

  • 813
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    807.....confessions

    You’re right, confessions. And they will take a lot of stopping.

  • 814
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    briefly

    Elevated beyond his ability.

    Night

  • 815
    Wakefield
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Wilson and IPA will be busy promoting the Trans Pacific Partnership treason of allowing foreign companies in some circumstances more say over policy in Australia than the Australian government

  • 816
    Wakefield
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Psephos – history will tell I guess but I wouldn’t underestimate organisations that have spent decades battling it out for rights for women in Afghanistan.

  • 817
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    @Victoria/811

    At least it wouldn’t be a country or countries that he would stuff up as a result of his leadership or lack of.

  • 818
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    The surplus left by Howard did help contribute to Australia avoiding a recession but if the Rudd Government had not been proactive in responding with the stimulus package then that surplus would have disappeared in a sea of unemployment benefits and lost tax revenue.

  • 819
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Everything

    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Abbott inherited the AAA economy from a government that inherited it from Howard.

    Howard never got 3 x triple A ratings Howard never had to manage a GFC

  • 820
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    I wouldn’t underestimate organisations that have spent decades battling it out for rights for women in Afghanistan.

    I don’t despute the courage of RAWA women but the fact is they don’t represent anyone but a handful of university-educated leftists. They have no base in the villages where most Afghan women live. And that’s where the social revolution of the past decade has taken place. Schools, clinics, clean water, made roads, birth control, literacy classes. All brought to Afghan villages by both Afghan and international NGOs, under the protection and with the active participation of the ISAF forces. Anyone who actually cares about the lives of Afghan women, and not just about spouting sterile anti-American slogans like Kezza and Fran, must acknowledge these facts and applaud them. If they don’t they are pseudo-feminists.

  • 821
    bemused
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Everything@801


    bemused
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 11:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything@792
    Abbott inherited the AAA economy from a government that inherited it from Howard.
    …who never had to deal with a GFC.


    Howard protected us from the GFC.

    Had we gone into the GFC with Rudd/Gillard levels of debt and deficit, God only knows what economicatastrophe we would have faced….

    Mod, you are either a complete dunce when it comes to economics or you just blithely lie.

    It was precisely to counter the GFC that Rudd engaged in stimulus spending. His biggest mistake was to proceed with the Howard tax cuts he promised to match.

    Even now, Australia’s debt is minuscule by world standards. Oh, and don’t forget Jolly Joe wanted to increase his limit by 60% before the Greens helped him remove any limit.

    Debt is not the problem. The biggest problem remains insufficient demand in the economy to attain full employment.

  • 822
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    I see the Victorian Police Minister was caught out at the Tennis, as someone who was firmly of the view that Nixon should have been sacked after leaving her desk on Black Saturday for chardy with girl-friends.

    I would call for Wells to be fired except for one small thing since its highly likely that he will lose his job in November lets save the money which would be spent on printing new letter head as a new minister will most likely be sworn in in early December.

    If the government is returned he should be sent to the backbench never to be seen outside of his seat again.

  • 823
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    Too gutless to admit that Labor did a good job getting Australia through the GFC.

    Other Nations, the World Bank, the OECD etc all praised the actions of the Australian Labor Govt but the Liberals are so small minded pathetic little people they could never say a good word about Labor impressive management

  • 824
    briefly
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    801
    Everything

    Howard protected us from the GFC.

    It is scarcely worth the keystrokes, but the record will show that Howard and Costello did not reduce liabilities in the economy. They merely moved them from the public accounts, where they posed no risk to financial stability, to the private sector, where they did and still do.

    The deficits run in the public sector since 2008 have protected the private sector from an otherwise ruinous reconstruction of their balance sheets. Had the public sector been in surplus since 2008, it is an absolute certainty we would have had the greatest liquidation in private debt experienced since the 1890′s.

    Furthermore, the very slow domestic growth we now experience is directly attributable to the cosmic growth in private sector liabilities during the Howard years. He not only failed to protect us from anything, he has doomed us to a decade or more or economic stagnation.

  • 825
    Wakefield
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Psephos – the left political groups in Afghanistan gave the most impetus to secular and womens’ rights in thier period of government around 1980 before the USSR decides to get involved and organised a putsch to install their favouvite faction of the Afghan communists in power.

    That had a massive backlash which no doubt hurt most of the left groups.

    Similar outcomes are likely for the groups who have been promoted by the ISAF (even the drug lords). Its pretty hard to export any political philosophy into a society like Afghanistan – it needs to be homegrown.

  • 826
    Everything
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    briefly
    .....Furthermore, the very slow domestic growth we now experience is directly attributable to the cosmic growth in private sector liabilities during the Howard years. He not only failed to protect us from anything, he has doomed us to a decade or more or economic stagnation.

    Which I assume means that if we don’t experience economic stagnation in the next decade, then you will attribute that to the good economic management of the LNP government?

  • 827
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    I am a proud member of the Labor Party.

    I’m proud to a member of a political Party that shows compassion, empathy and care for the vulnerable and less fortunate in our society.

    I’m proud to be a member of Party that acts to help people in need.

    I remember an old adage that the Labor Party lives by;

    “Never is a man so tall as when he bends down to help a beggar”

  • 828
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    I don’t think we are heading towards economic stagnation but the government will need to work hard to maximise the workforce’s skills level and to ensure business is diversifying and open minded to regional opportunities.

    Unfortunately this government has surrounded itself with several people who are still in the 1990s.

  • 829
    Everything
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    Are you proud to support the party that cut benefits to single mothers?

    Are you proud to support the party that promoted rendition of “vulnerable and less fortunate” people to Malaysia?

  • 830
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    To confirm Bemuses point the public sector debt is about $20Bn yet the private sector has debt in the ball part of $50Bn

  • 831
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    Abbott is governing so well 30,000+ full time jobs were lost in one month under his leadership.

    Debt has doubled in 3 months. It took Abbott only 3 months to reach the same level of debt that took Labor 6 years, and Abbott hasn’t got one thing to show for that doubling of the debt

    Optimism in the community has fallen.

  • 832
    bemused
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    mexicanbeemer@822

    I see the Victorian Police Minister was caught out at the Tennis, as someone who was firmly of the view that Nixon should have been sacked after leaving her desk on Black Saturday for chardy with girl-friends.

    I would call for Wells to be fired except for one small thing since its highly likely that he will lose his job in November lets save the money which would be spent on printing new letter head as a new minister will most likely be sworn in in early December.

    If the government is returned he should be sent to the backbench never to be seen outside of his seat again.

    His position should be compared with Bob Cameron’s, not Christine Nixon.

    Ministers have a political leadership role, but it is the Commissioner of Police who has operational control and needs to be there or available for immediate contact.

    Where was Commissioner Ken Lay? :|

  • 833
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    Are you proud to support a Party that attacks the disabled?

    Attacks low income workers superannuation while increasing the superannuation fo the wealthy?

    Proud to support a Govt that supports and condones FBT rorts?

    Proud of a Government that uses taxpayer money to fund book launches and attend mates weddings, footy and rugby games?

  • 834
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    Bemused

    Fair point about the operational roles.

    Have i missed something, i did see Ken Lay take part in one or two press conferences early on in last weeks heatwave.

  • 835
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    @Mod lib/826

    Or you can thank the previous govern, for doing the hard yards while Abbott has been slacking off?

    He did say he will pledge 2 million jobs to be created by a decade, which we know to be a big fat lie.

  • 836
    Everything
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    AA:

    Given what we have been hearing about the ALP in recent times, I don’t think your momentous comments about “mates weddings” and “rugby games” hold much water:

    Recent ALP Scandals:

    Corruption:
    1. Former NSW ALP Minister Eddie Obeid

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-03/eddie-obeid-to-face-fresh-icac-inquiry/4995998

    2. Former NSW ALP Minister Ian Macdonald
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-30/icac-pushes-for-more-charges-against-ian-macdonald/4926108

    3. Former NSW ALP Minister Kelly
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-01/no-charges-to-be-laid-against-tony-kelly/4859078

    4. Former ALP MP Craig Thomson
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-18/more-than-100-witnesses-in-craig-thomson-case/4966412

    5. Former ALP President Michael Williamson
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-15/former-alp-president-pleads-guilty-to-funnelling/5024880

    Under investigation:
    1. Not reporting being bribed: NSW ALP Leader John Robertson

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-08/labor27s-robertson-denies-job-is-on-the-line-over-bribe/5009034

    2. Former NSW ALP Minister Joe Tripodi
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-01/icac-widens-inquiry-to-consider-tripodi-corruption-claims/5063596

    3. Child pornography: Former SA ALP MP Bernard Finnigan
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/south-australian-mp-bernard-finnigan-appears-on-child-pornography-charge/story-e6frg6nf-1226746808260

    4. “Unnamed senior ALP figure under investigation for rape:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tanya-plibersek-pushes-for-rape-probe-into-unnamed-senior-labor-figure/story-fn59niix-1226759757328

    BTW…..let me know if I missed any!!!!! :devil:

  • 837
    bemused
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    Everything@829

    Are you proud to support the party that cut benefits to single mothers?

    Are you proud to support the party that promoted rendition of “vulnerable and less fortunate” people to Malaysia?

    Oh, you mean the same one that was going to take 5 times as many from Malaysia and increase the overall refugee intake?

    Have you reverted to your Mrs Drown persona?

  • 838
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    victoria@730
    Boerwar
    Indeed loss and grief are too much for some marriages to survive

    I could never figure that out.
    I would have expected people to cling together in their shared grief.

    The stats on divorce rates among the parents of kids with cancer are terrible. About 70% get divorced.

  • 839
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    He meant 2 million job losses!!

  • 840
    bemused
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    Everything@836

    AA:

    Given what we have been hearing about the ALP in recent times, I don’t think your momentous comments about “mates weddings” and “rugby games” hold much water:

    I wouldn’t bother about Liberal Party scandals, they are just ongoing and one merges into another.

    In fact, the Liberal Party is sorta like a crime in progress.

    The main victims are the Australian people.

  • 841
    bemused
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    Well, enough for tonight.

    I am off to bed.

  • 842
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    3. Former NSW ALP Minister Kelly
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-01/no-charges-to-be-laid-against-tony-kelly/4859078

    you missed the bit where it says NO Charges

    Thomson didn’t commit the offences while a MP.

    Sinodinos is under investigation over his directorship of an Obeid company that was awarded the contracts after he became a Senator

    Then there’s the political donations stuff still in the pipe line.

  • 843
    Everything
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    bemused
    ....The main victims are the Australian people.

    The Australian people have experienced higher economic growth, higher real wage rises, bigger budget surpluses, lower interest rates, lower inflation and lower unemployment under the LNP.

    Victims, you say???? :)

  • 844
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    Similar outcomes are likely for the groups who have been promoted by the ISAF (even the drug lords). Its pretty hard to export any political philosophy into a society like Afghanistan – it needs to be homegrown.

    The difference is that the Soviet occupation produced no economic growth (quite the opposite), and thus did nothing to challenge or undermine traditional patriarchy. The most powerful way to undermine patriarchy is to PUT MONEY IN THE HANDS OF WOMEN. Since 2002 Afghanistan has had the longest sustained period of growth in its entire history. It has had 10% growth or more most years since then – admittedly starting from a very low base, but still a lot of growth. This has produced a very different society, still dominated by patriarchal ideology, of course, but now much more developed and complex and offering women real bases for opposing the re-imposition of the status quo ante.

  • 845
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    Liberal Party is the biggest Catholic based crime gang in Australia

  • 846
    Everything
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    AA #842:

    Haha ;) What a comeback!

    One of the 9 examples I mention didn’t result in charges! You really got me good there :devil:

  • 847
    Everything
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:28 am | PERMALINK
    Liberal Party is the biggest Catholic based crime gang in Australia

    You better hope that Ludwig doesn’t read this blog!

  • 848
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    Under Labor

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdKvbalCUAAIM_E.jpg

  • 849
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    Under Liberals

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bc9hWr4CAAAMUgm.jpg

  • 850
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 24, 2014 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    Under Liberals

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bc36JdlCcAAF3vI.jpg

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