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Federal Election 2016

Jan 26, 2014

Seat of the week: Port Adelaide

Keeping things focused on South Australia as the state election looms into view, the latest instalment of Seat of the Week takes us to the state's safest Labor seat.

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Numbers indicate size of two-party preferred booth majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Port Adelaide includes Port Adelaide itself and the adjacent Le Fevre Peninsula, including the suburbs around Sempahore and Largs Bay, along with Woodville and its surrounds to the north of the city and, some distance to the north-east, a stretch of suburbs from Parfield Gardens north to Salisbury North, which are separated from the rest of the electorate by the Dry Creek industrial area. A very safe seat for Labor, its margin after the 2013 election was 14.0%, pared back from a redistribution-adjusted 20.9% by a 6.9% swing to the Liberals.

Port Adelaide was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 from an area that had previously made Hindmarsh a safe seat for Labor. Such was Labor’s strength that the Liberals did not field candidates in 1954 and 1955, when the only competition for Labor came from the Communist Party. Rod Sawford assumed the seat at a by-election in 1988 upon the resignation of the rather more high-profile Mick Young, who had been the member since 1974. With Sawford’s retirement at the 2007 election the seat passed on to Mark Butler, the state secretary of the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union and a descendant of two conservative state premiers: his great- and great-great-grandfathers, both of whom were called Sir Richard Butler.

Butler quietly established himself as a rising star over Labor’s two terms in government, winning promotion to parliamentary secretary in June 2009 and then to the junior ministry portfolios of mental health and ageing after the 2010 election. The latter promotion came despite his noted hesitancy in jumping aboard the Julia Gillard bandwagon during the June 2010 leadership coup. Butler was elevated to cabinet in December 2011 when social inclusion was added to his existing responsibilities, and he further gained housing and homeless in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the departure of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans. He remained solidly behind Gillard when Kevin Rudd challenged her for the leadership in February 2012, but emerged among the decisive defectors to the Rudd camp ahead of his successful leadership bid in June 2013. The subsequent reshuffle saw him promoted to environment and climate change, which he retained in the shadow ministry following the election defeat.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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581 comments

581 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Port Adelaide

  1. mexicanbeemer

    Ru

    My Condolences to you for your loss

  2. davidwh

    Rua best wishes and condolences.

  3. mexicanbeemer

    PeeVee

    The problem with using Centrelink as the source of unemployment is not every unemployed person does onto Centrelink benefits either due to the short term nature of their unemployment or due to not being eligible for Newstart.

  4. Fran Barlow

    Fess @378

    [For once I have to agree with Tony Abbott. I do not believe that Australian Navy personnel ordered asylum seekers to hold on to hot metal pipes, thereby inflicting serious burns to their hands.]

    Any claim that starts with “for once I have to agree with Tony Abbott” sounds too mad to countenance without compelling proof, and at this stage, there is none. That doesn’t mean on accepts the claim against the RAN but we simply need more than the credibility of this regime and an appeal to disbelief. Let’s keep an open mind until we have enough reliable evidence one way or another.

  5. zoomster

    bemused

    just to recap, because it appears you’re drifting a bit —

    1. The ABS measures unemployment, underemployment and overemployment. They do this using an internationally standard method, which is also consistent over time, so we can usefully use their statistics to compare present unemployment with past unemployment.

    2. These figures have nothing to do with Centrelink or any other form of welfare.

    3. These figures show that, for the last decade, Australian unemployment has been below 6% (slightly above ‘full employment’) and underemployment has been trending (gradually) down.

    4. I’m not arguing as to whether or not these figures are changing now, or that we don’t need to look at job creation. (I’ve even hinted at a way this could be done with minimum expense).

    5. I agree that infrastructure spending by governments is the key to ongoing good employment figures; it was directly responsible for maintaining Australia’s good employment rate through the GFC.

  6. Steve777

    Ruawake – condolences on your loss.

  7. mexicanbeemer

    Government spending does form a part of the GDP numbers.

    Many seem to underestimate the importance of government to the overall performance of the economy.

  8. Kirky

    Ruawake,

    My condolences on the loss of your father – cherish those memories.

  9. BK

    rua
    Sincere condolences.

  10. bemused

    zoomster@486

    bemused

    just to recap, because it appears you’re drifting a bit –
    ===
    Actually it is you who appears to be all over the place.
    1. The ABS measures unemployment, underemployment and overemployment. They do this using an internationally standard method, which is also consistent over time, so we can usefully use their statistics to compare present unemployment with past unemployment.

    Yes, the figures used by Bill Mitchell. So your point is?


    2. These figures have nothing to do with Centrelink or any other form of welfare.

    So who said they did? Straw-man stuff.


    3. These figures show that, for the last decade, Australian unemployment has been below 6% (slightly above ‘full employment’) and underemployment has been trending (gradually) down.

    No it is not ‘full employment’. Anyone who thinks it is, is obviously avoiding the unpleasant truth.
    Unemployment and underemployment have shifted very little downward, but at the same time the participation rate has dropped markedly. People have simply given up.
    It the participation rate had stayed at its recent peak, then the sum of unemployment and underemployment would have risen.


    4. I’m not arguing as to whether or not these figures are changing now, or that we don’t need to look at job creation. (I’ve even hinted at a way this could be done with minimum expense).

    Well why create the appearance that you are completely sanguine about the unemployment situation by playing it down?


    5. I agree that infrastructure spending by governments is the key to ongoing good employment figures; it was directly responsible for maintaining Australia’s good employment rate through the GFC.

    Yes, and we need more. We have an infrastructure deficit of many billions of dollars. Time to start filling that gap.

    Here is something from 2006 on the same topic. Note Penny Wong’s ‘shock horror’ reaction. But she is dead right. This is an ‘outrageous waste of potential’.

    Hidden jobless figure may reach 17%

    The situation now is no better and may even be worse.

  11. Diogenes

    [a person on the DSP would be counted as unemployed if their answer to the question “Are you looking for work?” is ‘yes’.]

    Wouldn’t you lose the DSP if you said you were looking for work?

  12. sohar

    Ruawake, My condolences for your and your family’s loss.

  13. mexicanbeemer

    Grog recently showed various graphs which indicated many of the issues regarding falling participation rate and underemployment.

    The labour market over the past three years as been pretty tough even for some highly educated job seekers.

    This was one of the hidden reasons behind the 2013 election result particularly in seats like McEwan where the unemployment rate is substantially higher than the official numbers.

  14. Acerbic Conehead

    RU,

    My thoughts are with you and your family at this very sad time. Cherish the good memories of your father – I’m sure there are many.

    AC.

  15. mexicanbeemer

    Dio

    No, if a person on DSP gains employment they undergo a tapering like effect until the hours and income consume the DSP payment which is then stopped but if the person loses that job within two years they are able to return to DSP, if they are employed beyond two years they need to go though the application process.

  16. Tom the first and best

    492

    Certainly not if it is less than 15 hours of work.

  17. Diogenes

    mb

    Wouldn’t they go on to Newstart if they are able to be employed?

  18. Diogenes

    Tom

    [Certainly not if it is less than 15 hours of work.]

    I meant lose it as in have it changed to Newstart.

  19. mexicanbeemer

    Dio

    If they are employed beyond two years (unless that has changed) they need to go though the DSP application process and it is quite possible that they will be placed on Newstart but that isn’t always the case depending on the person’s medical condition or disability.

    Another factor may well be the circumstances of the ceasing of employment.

  20. zoomster

    Diog

    No. You’re allowed to do some work, just as you are on any other form of pension (I think in the case of DSP it’s limited to 15 hours a week).

    Given that — as we’ve discussed endlessly — someone who works one hour a week can be counted as ’employed’, a DSP recipient working one day a week could also be counted as ’employed’.

  21. Diogenes

    mb

    Thanks for that. Obviously some medical conditions fluctuate in their severity.

  22. mexicanbeemer

    Furthermore if a person has been employed for a period of time which is less than two years Centrelink would still meet meet the person and review the person’s circumstances but generally if the person is still finding their way into the workforce Centrelink takes a flexible approach.

  23. Steve777

    Re unemployment: when I finished full time education in the early 1970s unemployment was something that my parents’ generation remembered from before the war. The Federal Government worried when unemployment climbed towards 2%. There was full employment in Australia in those days., from the end of WW2 until 1974.

    It all changed in 1974 when the ongoing impacts of the first oil shock hit Australia. Unemployment and inflation both rocketed. At the time it was all blamed on Gough. Others blamed ‘dole bludgers’, although it was never explained why several hundred thousand people decided to abandon work in the space of a year. In any case, the same was happening worldwide.

    Since that time, we’ve never been able to run the economy without pushing the bottom 5 to 10% of the workforce out of employment. Unemployment in Australia has never been below 4% since 1974 and never below 5% except for brief periods. ‘Full employment’ used to mean about 1% unemployment but since the mid 70s means about 5%.

    Business interests and their political allies say its because wages are too high, but low wage countries also have high unemployment. Clearly globalisation and the end of protection have a lot to do with it.

  24. Tom the first and best

    499

    The DSP is for those who cannot work more than 15 hour per week. Thus if they are applying for less than 15 hours of work, there is probably no reason to think they can work more than 15 hours and thus they would not loose their DSP.

  25. Diogenes

    Thank you all. That makes sense.

  26. zoomster

    bemused

    as I suspected, we were actually largely in agreement.

    Whether or not the official ABS figures (which Mitchell, as you note, uses himself) represent the true state of employment or not is a moot point. We measure things the way we measure them; you are never going to get a system which everyone agrees with (for example, we have an official measure of population which everyone accepts for the purposes of discussion, but which clearly cannot be accurate).

    The evidence is that, over the last ten years, Australia has had as good an employment position as it ever has. That doesn’t mean things are going to stay that way, and I haven’t argued that they will.

  27. Fran Barlow

    I was watching some b-grade movie his afternoon on FTA (nine probably) and they were running the story about the adolescent in Westmead Hospital who had been assaulted at a party. Naturally, they went for the “coward’s punch’ meme. They didn’t even qualify it as “what has been called … ”

    Hmm … Murdoch …

    More generally though as this was a party we don’t even have the licenced premises thing to connect it, nor can we really know how affected by alcohol the attacker was. We probably don’t even know if the attacker struck the victim once or multiple times or if the blow that ostensibly caused the victim to fall was delivered in he course of a struggle.

    On the question of “alcohol-fuelled violence” it seems to me that tougher sentences, and certainly mandatorily tougher sentences can serve no good purpose and is subversive of good sentencing practice. If we are troubled by he role of alcohol usage in predisposing dangerous physical conflict, then it seems far easier just to make alcohol somewhat less accessible. Not inaccessible mind you, but less so than it is now. Let licences to supply alcohol in a particular precinct be capped by volume and make putative licensees bid for quota. Let those entertaining customers on premises also bid for quota. Let all alcohol supply stop between 10pm and 10am. Exempt alcohol suppliers from competition policy, allowing them to collude on pricing. And of course, tax alcohol more heavily. Much more heavily. Use the extra revenue to create alternative entertainment for the under 30s and to police the licencing regime.

    Oh … And create a legal regime for the supply of THC-based drugs.

    Sure the alcohol industry wouldn’t like it, but if they are keen …

  28. zoomster

    Steve

    that’s where participation rates kick in and cloud the picture — even in the early seventies the number of women who stayed at home and weren’t seeking work was quite significant.

    When we’re comparing figures, that needs to be kept in mind.

    I think – and I haven’t checked this, so I might be wrong – that Australia has both a high participation rate and a high employment rate at present, and this is a very rare convergence.

  29. mexicanbeemer

    Tom

    Its not that they cannot work more than 15 hours but due to the disability or medical condition the person is deemed as not being able to work as productively as a skilled qualified experienced worker.

    Of course a lot depends on the person and the condition which is why Gillard was right to return it too 30 hours.

  30. Tom the first and best

    507

    The post war unemployment level was lower than it has been in the last few decades. For most of 3 decades, pretty much any employable person could get a job. There was a lower participation rate because of married women mostly not being employed but that does not explain the unemployment rate being several times higher today than then.

  31. victoria

    Mumbles writes

    [PRIME Minister Tony Abbott had this to say on the weekend about his cherished planned constitutional amendment:
    “If we had known in 1901 what we know now, if our hearts had been as big then as now, we would have acknowledged Indigenous people in the constitution back then”.
    News Ltd columnist Andrew Bolt could not disagree more, blogging in response that this was “utter nonsense”.
    “Australia’s founders no more lacked heart than do people today”, he writes. “The difference is that they were inspired by the creed that all citizens are as one before the law.”]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/abbott_and_bolt_both_wrong/

  32. poroti

    victoria

    BoltA missed a word.

    […..they were inspired by the creed that all European citizens are as one before the law.]

  33. Fran Barlow

    Victoria

    [“Australia’s founders no more lacked heart than do people today”, he writes. “The difference is that they were inspired by the creed that all citizens are as one before the law.”]

    Hardly. They got into an almighty bunfight about how to exclude the indigenous from population data and about the right of the states to treat them as if they were fauna. Equally, they were keen on keeping out those who were not of British stock, particularly if they were dark-skinned, as were many of the folk in Britain’s colonial territories.

    Bolt once again underlines his ignorance and the reality that nationalism is a form of mythology.

  34. deblonay

    Obama has real problems with his Health care plan
    _________________________________________

    Obamacare has been badly sold by the White House and a range of polls(see below) shows its support level running far below the “against” score in polls across the USA

    and this in a congressional election Year(Nov)

    How could those around the White House run such a poor campaign to sell the plan…in a place where advertising is so powerful???

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

  35. AussieAchmed

    Australia’s participation rate, which refers to the proportion of people working or looking for work during the month, was steady on 64.8 per cent.

    September’s participation rate figure was revised down from 64.9 per cent to 64.8 per cent

  36. deblonay

    FRan…re myths
    ________
    Napolean knew about nationalism…He said “men and nations are led by myths”

  37. MTBW

    rua

    If you are around I have just caught up with your news.

    My deepest sympathies to you and yours and take special care of your Mum.

    It is hard!

  38. zoomster

    Tom

    Women make up 46% of the workforce – so if we sent even half of them back home, that would create just short of 5 billion jobs.

    At present, there are around 720,000 unemployed.

  39. zoomster

    Damn maths – – 2.5 billion (read the wrong sum off my scribbling….)

    Still trumps the unemployment figure and even the underemployment figure.

  40. Jackol

    Zoom and you’re doing a Barnaby on us…

  41. leone

    If you want to know how DSP works, who gets it, how many hours a recipent can work and whatever then why not go straight to the human services website and look it up instead of playing Chinese Whispers here.
    Try this – just use the links.
    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/themes/people-with-a-disability

  42. deblonay

    More re the Murdoch Monster_________
    ____________________
    I wonder if he is the most significant propaganda figure in the history of the media after the notorious Dr Goebells

    In the USA he funds “The Weekly Standard” which is also free on line
    It is the national mouthpiece of many of Murdoch’s pet interests and favourites …The warmongering Neo-Cons,the Tea Party,(created by his Fox men )a host of right-wing Repugnants, and the zionist Lobby with really virulent ones like Kristol and Wolfowitz and Bonkers Bolton

    So they want an end to welfare,cut out food stamps,make the poor hungry and they’ll find work,and wait for the miracle of capitalism to solve all problems

    Like “The Oz” the “Weekly Standard” is often quoted by the lazy media…and like The Oz it loses millions each year….but its one of Murdochs influence buying publications and he must love it…and like the Oz it might NOT survive his demise because it is a financial black-hole…though widely available and on line too

    Have a look..see the familiar Murdoch style

  43. deblonay

    Murdoch’s “Weekly Standard”
    ______________________ Have a looki

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/

  44. bemused

    Steve777@504

    Re unemployment: when I finished full time education in the early 1970s unemployment was something that my parents’ generation remembered from before the war. The Federal Government worried when unemployment climbed towards 2%. There was full employment in Australia in those days., from the end of WW2 until 1974.

    It all changed in 1974 when the ongoing impacts of the first oil shock hit Australia. Unemployment and inflation both rocketed. At the time it was all blamed on Gough. Others blamed ‘dole bludgers’, although it was never explained why several hundred thousand people decided to abandon work in the space of a year. In any case, the same was happening worldwide.

    Since that time, we’ve never been able to run the economy without pushing the bottom 5 to 10% of the workforce out of employment. Unemployment in Australia has never been below 4% since 1974 and never below 5% except for brief periods. ‘Full employment’ used to mean about 1% unemployment but since the mid 70s means about 5%.

    Business interests and their political allies say its because wages are too high, but low wage countries also have high unemployment. Clearly globalisation and the end of protection have a lot to do with it.

    We must be of a similar vintage.

    Here is the nub of the problem:

    [Employment remains low and is lagging GDP growth, a pattern that began at least three recessions ago and that has become more pronounced with each recovery. In most advanced economies, the tradable sector has generated very limited job growth – a problem that, until 2008, domestic demand “solved” by employing lots of people in the non-tradable sector (government, health care, construction, and retail).]

    http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/michael-spence-explains-why–secular-stagnation–is-not-a-problem-that-the-us-and-other-advanced-economies-should-try-to-solve

  45. mexicanbeemer

    Leone What Chinese whispers would that be?

  46. confessions

    victoria:

    Mumble tweeted earlier re indigenous constitutional recognition:

    [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 5h
    . @Drag0nista @joshgnosis Original constitution did specifically acknowledge Indigenous Australians. Just not in a positive way.]

  47. Steve777

    Some social and economic changes since the early 1970s contributing to higher unemployment. This is my take, the list is far from exhaustive:

    – end of protection means stronger competition from imports. Of course even if it were a good idea, protection is no longer an option
    – automation, including computerisation, has eliminated many jobs that were done by the less skilled (or even those with skills – jobs involving manual record keeping, filing, typing, even jobs like bank teller)
    – many other jobs done by the less skilled have either been exported (e.g. Less skilled manufacturing) or are no longer done (e.g. tea lady, bus conductor, railway ticket collector)
    – State and Federal Governments and their agencies absorbed one quarter of school leavers year after year, including many apprentices. This no longer happens on anything like that scale
    – most of those who for whatever reason are unable to complete school and gain qualifications of some sort are effectively unemployable now but could get a job back then. They get left behind.
    – private companies are far more aware of the bottom line and are quick to get rid of surplus staff. There are no more jobs for life. In the 70s people didn’t get retrenched 5 minutes after they ran out of work (or before they ran out of work, with their erstwhile colleagues having to take it on).

  48. poroti

    Another hole for HoJo to fill.

    [Small and medium businesses locked out of ‘direct action’, Coalition warned

    The CEFC also points out in its submission that the new government’s plan to abolish it is not cost-free. Treasury’s economic forecasts put the cost of carbon price repeal at more than $7bn.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/27/direct-action-risks-failure-if-the-ret-is-scrapped-coalition-warned

  49. briefly

    rua, I’m sorry to read your news and offer my condolences to you and your family.

  50. Tom the first and best

    521

    I presume you are talking about Australia and thus mean 2.5 million jobs rather than billions.

    That of course ignores that fact that the mass employment of married and otherwise partnered women unlike the situation in the post war period, except with it increasing towards the end of that period, created many hundreds of thousands of jobs, especially in the childcare and domestic services industries, through necessity and greater demand.

    A willingness to have employment encouragement and economic equality policies more like those of the post war period would lower unemployment and underemployment and raise equality. A tight labour market is key to greater equality.

  51. Fran Barlow

    Dreadful news RUA. Let me wish you the very best in dealing with your loss.

  52. zoomster

    Steve

    all of those are trumped by the numbers of women in the workforce.

    Not saying it’s a bad thing!

    Yes, the changes you refer to occurred – but since the Industrial Revolution, these kind of adjustments have been happening.

    I could (most probably) sit down and make a similar list of vanished opportunities for the 1950s, another time of high employment (but where workforce participation was comparatively low).

    (I’m being tantalised by sources which claim to give me workforce participation graphs for Australia going back to 1967 but which only appear to start in 2002 – but even those clearly show a steady rise in the workforce).

  53. dave

    Hockey re-applies a debt limit. He only ever wanted it increased, not done away with –

    [ Hockey sets debt limit at $500bn

    Treasurer Joe Hockey has given a directive to set Australia’s debt limit at $500 billion, despite parliament voting to abolish the ceiling altogether.

    The directive relating to government borrowing was officially gazetted on January 22.

    “I direct that the maximum total face value of stock and securities that may be on issue is $500 billion,” Mr Hockey states.

    The directive expires on April 1, 2024.

    A spokesman for Mr Hockey said it was in line with the legislation passed in December to abolish Labor’s $300 billion debt ceiling and “satisfied funding and operation requirements”.

    The abolition of the debt limit was the result of a compromise with the Australian Greens, after Mr Hockey’s initial attempt to legislate the $500 billion ceiling failed.

    The mid-year economic review released last year forecast debt to rise from $310 billion in 2013-14 to $460 billion by 2016-17, and $667 billion by 2023-24 if the budget is not brought under control. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/27/national-affairs/hockey-sets-debt-limit-500bn

  54. zoomster

    Tom

    Told you my maths was wonky!

    11,000,000 in jobs, 46% of these are women, so we’ll say around 5 million, send half home and you create 2.5 million jobs for a unemployed population of 700,000. Even if you double that for ‘underemployed’ you’ve still comfortably accounted for them.

    That I can get the figures so badly wrong and it still works shows that it’s increased workforce participation by women which explains the main difference between Australia pre 1970 and now.

    Your idea that women working creates jobs for women has merit, but again the numbers don’t match – it would take ten women returning home before one childcare worker lost their job, for example.

    Of course I’m being very broad brush here!

  55. Tom the first and best

    513

    Mumble making a good point about the original Constitution but then arguing in favour of a more elitist, less progressive way of changing the Constitution.

    Having state based elected conventions or state parliaments in charge of approving (or not as the case may be) constitutional amendments, like happens in Canada and the USA, would allow genuinely publicly opposed constitutional changes through because majorities four state conventions do not represent overall public opinion.

  56. bemused

    zoomster@536

    Tom

    Told you my maths was wonky!

    Of course I’m being very broad brush here!

    Not good enough! I demand evidence and calculations correct to 3 decimal places! 👿

  57. Diogenes

    As I mentioned a few weeks back, I’m reading Shirers Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. I cannot recommend it highly enough to anyone, like me , who only knows the basics of WWII.

    Actually I’m mainly listening to it on Audible when I’m in the car which is the easy option but it’s more enjoyable.

  58. zoomster

    Having given up on the 1967 to the present graph (damn you and your website for all eternity, World Bank!) here’s this from the RBA –

    [The participation rate has risen over recent decades, peaking in late 2010 (Graph C1). However, over the past two years the participation rate has declined, owing to both structural and cyclical factors.]

    [..The upward trend in the participation rate over the past three decades has primarily reflected increased participation by women and older people in the workforce]

    Some nice graphs — from 1982 onwards – demonstrating that male participation has been basically stable, people staying in the workforce beyond 55 has risen, and the participation of women has risen dramatically.

    http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2013/feb/graphs/graph-c2.html

    The participation rate fell —

    [ over the past two years the participation rate has declined by around ¾ percentage point]

  59. confessions

    [Hockey re-applies a debt limit. He only ever wanted it increased, not done away with -]

    Plus to give Labor a whack over the economy and try to further tarnish their record in govt.

    The hypocrisy from this mob is shocking.

  60. Tom the first and best

    536

    Sending the women home , or the men home instead, would cause a massive drop in demand for goods and services because household income would decline significantly, for the same jobs create demand reason behind the paradox of thrift that means austerity makes depressions worse not better.

  61. muttleymcgee

    rua 449

    Deepest sympathy.

    I lost my folks a couple of years ago and know how you feel.

  62. zoomster

    bemused

    I’m not that picky. I’d just like you to occasionally use evidence (and particularly, evidence which supports what you’re saying. It’s a bit pointless using evidence which supports what I’m saying…)

  63. psyclaw

    Dio

    “medical condition” and “disability” are not synonymous terms.

    The demography which mainly uses the terms interchangeably, and thus to many persons with a disability insultingly, is medicos.

  64. zoomster

    Tom

    now you’re getting things confused. I’m not saying we should send women home. I’m just saying that, when you compare unemployment now to unemployment a couple of decades ago, you need to remember that women weren’t in the workforce in anywhere near the same numbers.

    That’s enough to account for the difference, without looking for any other excuses.

  65. bemused

    Diogenes@539

    As I mentioned a few weeks back, I’m reading Shirers Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. I cannot recommend it highly enough to anyone, like me , who only knows the basics of WWII.

    Actually I’m mainly listening to it on Audible when I’m in the car which is the easy option but it’s more enjoyable.

    I read it years (decades?) ago and I agree with you.

    Another good one is “The Struggle for Europe” by Chester Wilmott, although it is limited to the Western Front in Europe.

    Anthony Beevors books on WWII are all good.

    I am currently following WWII Tweets from 1942 and then looking up a lot of things on Wikipedia. Learnt a lot already.

    There was an interesting 3 part series on SBS TV that finished last night. “Generation War” which is a German production from a German perspective. Should be available on the SBS website.

    The tragedy of the whole damn thing makes me want to weep. 🙁

  66. zoomster

    Diog

    during my period of temporary disability, I was assessed as not needing to seek work (to be reviewed after a year).

    I still sought work, and indeed still worked during this period – it’s just that I wasn’t required to in order to receive Newstart benefits.

  67. AussieAchmed

    And so the lies continue

    TREASURER Joe Hockey has given a directive to set Australia’s debt limit at $500 billion, despite parliament voting to abolish the ceiling altogether.

    Mr Hockey’s directive relating to government borrowing was officially gazetted on January 22.

    “I direct that the maximum total face value of stock and securities that may be on issue is $500 billion,” Mr Hockey states.

    The directive expires on April 1, 2024.

    The government tried to set the debt cap at $500bn in 2013, but Labor would not agree to it.

    Subsequently the coalition reached a deal with the Greens to abolish the debt cap altogether.

    The Treasury has now borrowed $500bn, consistent with the government’ initial position.

    A spokesman for Mr Hockey said the decision was in line with the legislation passed in December and “satisfied funding and operation requirements”.

    Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said it was a classic example of the Coalition saying one thing before the election and delivering the opposite after.

  68. bemused

    zoomster@544

    bemused

    I’m not that picky. I’d just like you to occasionally use evidence (and particularly, evidence which supports what you’re saying. It’s a bit pointless using evidence which supports what I’m saying…)

    Get over yourself.

    My evidence supported what I was saying.

  69. Yesiree Bob

    Sorry to hear about your loss, Rua, condolences.

  70. Tom the first and best

    546

    Correlation is not causation. Just because something looks like it could have caused something does not mean that it has and therefore no other cause should be looked for. Greater participation in the labour force does not explain the whole difference.

    There are other factors, mainly in economic policy, in the post oil crisis economy that have worked against higher employment. The whole economy has been changed to shift risk from governments and companies to people and the share of income that goes to profits has increased at the expense of wage income.

    Arguing that the higher unemployment figures are the result of increased female workforce participation not other economic policies decreases political pressure on economic policies and feeds the arguments of the “women would be better at home”

  71. Tom the first and best

    My post at 552 finishes with “brigade.” as anyone can see.

  72. Steve777

    Of course today, even if a woman (or a man) wanted to stay at home and look after the kids and the house, that’s no longer an option for most except for a short period. The cost of housing in our big cities effectively absorbs all or most of a second income in a typical two income family. Time was, a man on an average wage (like my father) could buy a modest house on the proverbial quarter acre block in an OK suburb and support a wife and 2.3 (or 3.2) children. Those days won’t come back.

  73. Boerwar

    Surprise No 94. Despite repeatedly criticising the Labor Government about the level of government debt, and despite making repeated promises to deliver surpluses, and despite voting against having a debt limit in the current parliament, Hockey has set the Abbott Government has a debt limit of $500,000,000,000 billion – $200,000,0000,000 higher than Labor’s debt limit.

  74. briefly

    himi, the main propositions of MMT are non-problematic for me. They describe what money and assets/liabilities are, how they are created and how monetary and fiscal policies can be deliberately, successfully managed to maintain full employment.

    The proposition that private sector surpluses (deficits) will have corresponding public sector deficits (surpluses) is particularly relevant to our experience, and to the rapid build up in private sector liabilities in the period prior to the GFC.

    In general, I don’t think it is possible to really understand the economy without grasping the propositions of MMT.

  75. Diogenes

    [“medical condition” and “disability” are not synonymous terms.

    The demography which mainly uses the terms interchangeably, and thus to many persons with a disability insultingly, is medicos.]

    Whoever said they were synonymous.

    However every disability has a medical diagnosis.

  76. AussieAchmed

    Took Labor 6 years and a GFC to get debt to $300b, took Abbott/Hockey only around 100 days to take a Triple A economy to nearly double that

  77. Steve777

    The following link includes a graph shows the participation rate in the USA since 1962. I can’t find one for Australia but I expect that our experience would be similar: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/labor-force-shrinks-by-367000–participation-rate-falls-to-its-lowest-level-in-31-years-2012-9

    Forty years ago, there would have been:
    1. More young people aged 15 to 23 in the workforce who would now be in full time education – which would increase participation
    2. Fewer retirees aged under 65 (although that looks like a passing phenomenon – an 80s, 90s and early 00s thing). That would also increase participation
    3. A younger population so more people of working age (as a proportion of the total population
    4. Fewer women in the work force, especially those then over 40 who would have mostly married before about 1960 and become traditional homemakers.

    I think that (4.) would be the biggest factor

  78. deblonay

    Diogenes /Bemused and other re WW2 reading
    ________________________
    I agree too re Anthony Beevor,,,,but his wife Artemis Cooper has written a splendid book called”Paris after the Liberation” a great story of those terrible days before and after Liberation and the slow revival of Franceunder De Gaulle…who comes out asa great man

    As well I re-read a classic”Is {Paris Burning?” the amazing story of how the German General Von Cholitz,defies Hitler’s orders to destroy all the historic heart of Paris…and wisely stays and is talen prisoner as the allies Liberate the city…He said “I don’t want to be remembered as the vandal who destroyed Paris”

    Year later he was thanked by De Gaulle and returned to Paris where he was thanked for his work there in saving the city
    Ywo books which compliment each other and are great reading

  79. mexicanbeemer

    Whilst it is true that every disability has a medical diagnosis but there is a subtle difference between having a disability and a medical condition.

    Many people seem to consider psychical disabilities the same as intellectual when they are very difference.

    Many seem to think having a disability equals being unable.

  80. Diogenes

    Mb

    Most medical diagnoses don’t lead to a disability.

  81. mexicanbeemer

    Dio

    True, most medical conditions don’t but then this comes to the definition of a disability and also many modern medical treatments.

  82. Kevin Bonham

    Polling imminent – ReachTEL Seven News.

    We don’t have Seven as such in Tas so I’ll possibly miss it!

  83. Diogenes

    Mb

    The problem of defining a disease is hard enough.

  84. confessions

    [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 50m
    For anyone interested, here the 1891 draft referendum amendment clause. Typed words before some dolt changed it. http://mumble.com.au/misc/1891constamendclause.jpg … ]

  85. poroti

    confessions

    Although it causes problems you cannot blame the smaller states from inserting such a clause so as to try and stop them being steamrolled by the two big states.

  86. victoria

    A retired senior Royal Australian Navy (RAN) officer has hit out at the Federal Government’s stop the boats policy as “morally corrupt and totally indefensible”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/coalition-boats-policy-morally-indefensible-says-john-ingram/5220886

  87. Fran Barlow

    Fess

    Personally, I prefer the current s128 provision, though it’s still not good. I’d prefer a simple Australia votes as a single electoral division model. I’d also like it to be possible for voters to rank similar proposals much as preferential voting allows people to rank candidates.

    There should also be scope for voters to indicate why they made the choices they did in a simple multiple choice format. That would give those with a stake in the matter guidance on the outcome if it failed or passed with some reservations.

  88. zoomster

    [ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-1) ALP 53 (+1) ]

  89. victoria

    Kevin B

    I saw this via Channel 7 twitter account

    [Exclusive Seven News/@ReachTEL poll tonight on @7NewsSydney and #7news around Oz. Some surprising results on economy and politics.]

  90. mikehilliard

    Apologies if already posted.

    [a message that International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde was hammering home in Davos.

    “Business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum should remember that in far too many countries the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by far too few people. This is not a recipe for stability and sustainability,” she said.

    It is telling to contrast this with comments by Prime Minister Tony Abbott at the same event. He avoided endorsing calls for a focus on inequality above and beyond economic growth, saying: ”As always, stronger economic growth is the key to addressing almost every global problem.”

    This is not some isolated quote; it reflects the government’s economic philosophy. His primary message for the leaders at Davos was to choose policies that made way for business and to avoid “government-knows-best action”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/advance-australia-fair-maybe-not-20140126-31gpz.html#ixzz2ra5ZQE9K%5D

  91. confessions

    poroti:

    It relates to his blog post today in which he argues against the current mechanism for changing the constitution.
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/abbott_and_bolt_both_wrong/

    Personally I think he makes a valid point. Some things are simply beyond the capability of voters voting in referendums.

  92. zoomster

    Tom

    [Arguing that the higher unemployment figures are the result of increased female workforce participation not other economic policies decreases political pressure on economic policies and feeds the arguments of the “women would be better at home”]

    Well, only if you can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.

    Recognising that something caused something is not the same as arguing that that something should be undone.

  93. kezza2

    ruawake

    6.15pm: Just rejoined the conversation, and saw your post.

    Jeez, mate, so sorry to hear you have lost your father in such sudden circumstances, but good to hear the airline/Aus staff have been so supportive of your mother.

    Thinking of you and yours. Take care.

    -Kerry Byrne & family.

  94. guytaur

    Rua

    Sorry to hear your news. Like others its good to hear of the help from consular staff and airlines.

    My condolences

  95. guytaur

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 39.8 (-1.6) ALP 40.6 (+0.2) GRN 9.1 (+0.4) #auspol”

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Personal financial position after last 12 months: Better off 20.3 Worse off 39.3 #auspol”

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Aust economy heading in right or wrong direction: Right 34.9 Wrong 39.3 #auspol”

  96. psyclaw

    #469 Page 10 was to Kezza, not “Mezzanine”.

    Bloody iPhone auto correct ….

  97. zoidlord

    @guytaur/422

    yup sums up Coalition Party Work For Dole, requires a job in the first place.

  98. zoidlord

    The talk of number of hours that a person on DSP can do is useless, it’s the participation rate that is important.