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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 27, 2014

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor's favour, and Morgan records little change.

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UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2159 comments

2,159 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

  1. Fulvio Sammut

    Just Me I seem to be confusing quite a few people here tonight.

    I was trying to say Abbott’s private life, whatever it is, should be off limits, unless of course he choses to make it public.

    But that’s my view only, and you are free to say what you will.

  2. absolutetwaddle

    Magic Pudding

    “I doubt that many real people could be organised so quickly; my guess is that the site was hacked and a bot used.”

    I agree. A pointless exercise if there ever was one.

  3. Diogenes

    Rossmore

    [Diog 2038 Or the stunning failure of the ABC to fairly report the recent international diplomatic breakthrough by the Australian PM in describing the Syrian civil war as a case of baddies v baddies.]

    And when he wins the Nobel Peace Prize for it I bet they won’t report it either.

  4. AussieAchmed

    FS – did you hold the same view about Rudd or Gillards private lives?

  5. Unitary State

    How is the betting for the Griffith by-election going?

    Has the LNP blown out past $8 yet?

  6. absolutetwaddle

    Fulvio

    Just Me was confused because he/she never mentioned Abbott’s private life. Someone else did.

  7. Fulvio Sammut

    Certainly, in fact I was incensed at the personal vindictive attacks made upon them then, and indeed that continue to be made even now.

  8. Fulvio Sammut

    I owe you an apology, Just Me. I got the wrong poster!

  9. ShowsOn

    Is Abbott pissed off that he didn’t get chosen as the new host of Media Watch when Jonathan Holmes retired?

  10. Unitary State

    ShowsOn @2068

    He is always pissed. Its because he cannot accept the fact that the world is always changing and has to change. He is trying to be god and stop time in its tracks.

  11. Fran Barlow

    You don’t need anything like 40000 people to freep an online poll. All you need is an app, a connection and a web enabled device. People have demonstrated this before. One culture warrior could do that.

    Indeed, it might have been done by someone who couldn’t care less about the topic but is either a troll, or wants to bring online polls into further disrepute.

  12. Rossmore

    More allegations of a corporate conspiracy by News in the UK hacking trial …

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/29/news-world-hacker-dan-evans-news-international

  13. absolutetwaddle

    Fran Barlow

    Do you moonlight at freerepublic? 😉

  14. bemused

    Fulvio Sammut@2066

    Certainly, in fact I was incensed at the personal vindictive attacks made upon them then, and indeed that continue to be made even now.

    They even continue on PB 🙁

  15. Fran Barlow

    AT

    [Do you moonlight at freerepublic? ]

    No. AIUI they are some bunch of RW libertarians so I wouldn’t fit in there at all.

  16. guytaur

    The Australian is reporting that a “saving” is going to be to scrap the Australia Network. If Murdoch cannot have it nobody can apparently

  17. bemused

    ShowsOn@2068

    Is Abbott pissed off that he didn’t get chosen as the new host of Media Watch when Jonathan Holmes retired?

    New Avatar Shows?
    The writing is too small. Put it on 2 lines and make it larger.

  18. absolutetwaddle

    Fran

    Your use of the verb ‘freep’ struck me as out of place on an Australian message board, that’s all. They basically invented the practice of purposefully skewing online polls.

    I read it daily for a laugh.

  19. William Bowe

    I’ve now got a link up to my South Australian election guide on the sidebar, having satisfied myself that everything’s more or less where it should be:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/sa2014

  20. confessions

    [The Australian is reporting that a “saving” is going to be to scrap the Australia Network. If Murdoch cannot have it nobody can apparently]

    Now that is a surprise. I’d expected the coalition govt to just hand it over without blinking.

  21. Psephos

    [In 1950 Menzies passed the ” Communist Partry Dissolution Act’ sought to ban the Communist Party of Australia
    The High Court rejected this and stuck down the legislation.

    Later Menzies went to the Privy Council in the UK but got the same result
    This led in 1951 to the Referendum to entrench the provisions of Menzies legislation in the Constitution but the Referendum was defeated]

    I’m pretty certain the Communist Party case did not go to the Privy Council. I can’t find any reference to it doing so. George Winterton, in his long discussion of the case in “Australia’s Constitutional Landmarks”, makes no mention of a Privy Council appeal.

  22. Fran Barlow

    Ah, I see. I noted some Tea Party type boasting about it on YouTube a while back.

  23. bemused

    Fran Barlow@2081

    Ah, I see. I noted some Tea Party type boasting about it on YouTube a while back.

    Send it to Fairfax.

  24. guytaur

    @TheAviator1992: BBC has picked up the story of our press-controlling Prime Minister #auspol http://t.co/UCyMWOlKk6

  25. lyndajcla

    My grandfather spoke in Parliament against the bill to outlaw the CPA. He was apparently to the right of the party at that time…left now…Nana was an out and out communist and their politics had them divorced but they both held social justice dear. I have his original writings before going into the house. He died in office in 1960 before I was born holding the federal seat if Bendigo. Maybe his notes should be preserved

  26. deblonay

    RE Communist Party Di8ssolution Act
    ______________
    I may have confused the matter re the Privy Council with the Privy Council hearing some years earlier over Chifley and his Bank Nationalisation Bill in 1947-48
    From memory I think Dr Evatt took that case to London

  27. Psephos

    The BBC would be very familiar with this issue, because Abbott’s attack closely resembles Thatcher’s attack on the BBC during the Falklands War, when BBC news referred to “British forces” and “Argentine forces”, rather than “our forces” and “enemy forces” as they had done during WW2.

  28. guytaur

    Good night

  29. confessions

    guytaur:

    Is there a link for the Oz Aust Network story? Nothing on their homepage.

  30. Psephos

    Your grandfather was Percy Clarey? You should be very proud of that. A great Labor stalwart. He was ACTU President before being elected to parliament.

  31. ShowsOn

    [He died in office in 1960 before I was born holding the federal seat if Bendigo. Maybe his notes should be preserved]
    Post them to the Smithsonian.

  32. Psephos

    And yes, you should give his papers to the National Library.

  33. confessions

    So Team Abbott can’t even launch an original attack on Australia’s public broadcaster, instead having to rip one off from England back in Thatcher’s day?

  34. Fran Barlow

    Bemused quoted me

    [ Fran Barlow@2081
    Ah, I see. I noted some Tea Party type boasting about it on YouTube a while back.]

    Then said:

    [Send it to Fairfax.]

    I feel sure they would know. There’s been no shortage of talk on the matter.

  35. Psephos

    [I may have confused the matter re the Privy Council with the Privy Council hearing some years earlier over Chifley and his Bank Nationalisation Bill in 1947-48
    From memory I think Dr Evatt took that case to London.]

    That’s correct.

  36. jules

    There’s some debate over the real meaning of freeping.

    Maybe we should all go here and try and turn the No 1 definition of freeping into “stalking on facebook”.

  37. Tom the first and best

    2086

    Neutral being the more professional stance for journalists.

  38. guytaur

    confessions

    It was on ABC Latenight what the papers say. So will be up when News deems its the new issue.

  39. Fulvio Sammut

    Cover blown.

  40. guytaur

    night

  41. Unitary State

    I am beginning to think the next newspoll will be 54-46 Labor’s way instead of 53-47 which was my prediction a couple of days ago

  42. deblonay

    Lyndajcla re Grandfather and notes
    __________
    Certainly thwy should be placed in an appropriate place
    There are several such repositories
    The National Library in Canberra would be interested I am sure,as would the Butlin Archives at ANU,and indeed The State Linbrary of Victoria also should be consided

  43. Psephos

    Ten times more people in Austalia are killed by horses every year than by sharks.

  44. confessions

    Thanks guytaur.

    Goodnight.

  45. lyndajcla

    Thanks psephos and shows on. The notes ate obviously hand written and full of his thoughts for the days battle. How did you know pseph?

  46. Tom the first and best

    2012

    It is a good thing that horse are no longer a major means of transport because of that reason and also the public health issues of the manure in cities.

  47. Fran Barlow

    Psephos

    [Ten times more people in Australia are killed by horses every year than by sharks.]

    There you go. They shoot horses don’t they?

  48. Fulvio Sammut

    They also jump sharks.

  49. Unitary State

    I still wish we had horses as a means of mainstream transport. It would be amazing.

  50. Just Me

    {2067
    Fulvio Sammut

    I owe you an apology, Just Me. I got the wrong poster!]

    No problem, I suspected as much. 🙂

    FWIW, I broadly agree with you, the sexual lives of politicians are off limits, except if they are being hypocrites or breaking the law.

  51. Just Me

    [2067
    Fulvio Sammut

    I owe you an apology, Just Me. I got the wrong poster!]

    No problem, I suspected as much. 🙂

    FWIW, I broadly agree with you, the sexual lives of politicians are off limits, except if they are being hypocrites or breaking the law.

  52. Fulvio Sammut

    Although come to think of it, in WA they shoot sharks don’t they?

  53. deblonay

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-calls-ministerial-meeting-on-european-boycotts/

    The Times of Israel notes that Netanyahu is to seek a cabinet meeting to deal with the latest Boycott action by Dutch pension funds withdrawing from dealings with Israeli banks

    This follows a spate of such actions across the EU and is related to policies on the West Bank affecting the Palestinians

  54. bemused

    Psephos@2102

    Ten times more people in Austalia are killed by horses every year than by sharks.

    The solution is obvious.
    CULL THE HORSES! 👿

  55. confessions

    [Although come to think of it, in WA they shoot sharks don’t they?]

    And Barnett was musing on the news tonight about culling saltwater crocs in Broome, even if the method of culling wasn’t yet determined.

    Shooting horses is a vastly different proposition from shooting sharks, though.

  56. Schnappi

    2105

    Think Motor vehicles ,have killed far more than Horses

  57. bemused

    Schnappi@2115

    2105

    Think Motor vehicles ,have killed far more than Horses

    Oh, alright then.
    CULL THE CARS! :EVIL:

  58. davidwh

    That Age poll has to be an error. I have never seen aFairfax. Poll that favoured Abbott until this one. We need a recount.

  59. deblonay

    Psephos re your plans for” dealing” with Iran
    ________________________
    When Bemused asked this question last night you fobbed him of with some statement re the Elders of Zion and you still working on the project

    Your may be interested to know that the PM of Turkey has taken advantage of the opening to Iran by making his first visit to Tehran this week,and starting a number new trade deals,etc with Iran,notably re oil and gas

    and tonight in his State of the Union speech Obama made it clear that the attempts in Congress by the usual suspects for tighter sanctions of Iran, will not succeed
    so what ARE your plans

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXoUDKOYl59M6k19GxSQwvTNFNyQ?docId=121985c5-dfe6-49bd-9015-cab577ed32b8

  60. Fulvio Sammut

    I think the only fair way to kill sharks and crocodiles is in unarmed combat.

    And I think all Coalition politicians should have the courage of their convictions and lead by example.

  61. Tom the first and best

    2115

    Cars have killed more than horses, for many decades, but they have a lot more contact with people. At similar traffic levels, horses kill more than cars but the trouble is that cars allow a much higher level of traffic. Horses are not the solution but car use does drastically reduced. PT, walking and bicycles are the answer.

  62. Diogenes

    Most animal related deaths in Australia are actually caused by motor vehicle accidents. Horses, cows, kangas, emus, dogs etc.

  63. bemused

    Fulvio Sammut@2119

    I think the only fair way to kill sharks and crocodiles is in unarmed combat.

    And I think all Coalition politicians should have the courage of their convictions and lead by example.

    Any way we could arrange for the crocs and sharks to fight it out? 😀

  64. rossmcg

    Confessions

    We do shoot horses in WA. Remember just a few months ago there was a massive wild horse cull in the Kimberley.
    As for Barnett raising the matter of a croc cull, er croc mitigation campaign, that was just a thought bubble.

  65. Fulvio Sammut

    I was joking.

    I intend no harm to sharks and crocodiles.

  66. Fulvio Sammut

    Anyway, sharks and crocodiles won’t fight Coalition politicians.

    It’s a matter of professional courtesy.

  67. Psephos

    [Thanks psephos and shows on. The notes ate obviously hand written and full of his thoughts for the days battle. How did you know pseph?]

    How did I know the MHR for Bendigo who died in 1960 was Percy Clarey? Because I know the membership of the House of Representatives since Federation pretty much by heart.

  68. confessions

    rossmcg:

    Culling horses in the Kimberley impacts our biodiversity in a positive way.

  69. confessions

    [Anyway, sharks and crocodiles won’t fight Coalition politicians.]

    Because the sharks and spivs line up to take shots at the ALP.

  70. rossmcg

    Confessions

    I had no problem with the horse cull.

  71. bemused

    Goodnight all.

  72. Psephos

    [and tonight in his State of the Union speech Obama made it clear that the attempts in Congress by the usual suspects for tighter sanctions of Iran, will not succeed
    so what ARE your plans]

    My plan is support Israel’s right to take whatever steps it deems necessary to defend itself against the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. Since Rouhani succeeded Ahmedinejad that threat has diminished somewhat, but not by a great deal. If Israel deems it necessary to attack Iran’s nuclear sites (as it previous attacked sites in both Iraq and Syria), I will support their right to do so.

  73. Acerbic Conehead

    Psephos,

    [I’m pretty certain the Communist Party case did not go to the Privy Council.]

    Maybe the report went to the privy instead.

  74. lyndajcla

    Hi pseph you have memory of all that? Walking history you are…. I thought I alone remembered and know. Thankyou. A friend just told me about her grandfather who fought in Spain and was executed at 34…would have been a believer like Nana….these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them…no recognition by and large

  75. Psephos

    [these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them]

    There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.

  76. confessions

    rossmcg:

    Nor do I.

  77. Yesiree Bob

    Fran Barlow@2106

    Psephos


    Ten times more people in Australia are killed by horses every year than by sharks.


    There you go. They shoot horses don’t they?

    only when they’re nags and can’t win the cup

  78. Tom the first and best

    2137

    Did any Australians die fighting on the wrong side (Franco)?

  79. absolutetwaddle

    Psephos

    “There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.”

    I note you said ‘all’ twice. I take it this means the Nationalists and Republicans are listed together?

    If so I wonder how they’d feel about that.

  80. lyndajcla

    Thanks pseph…I travelled to Canberra to show my girl the Parliament… stopped along the way and never saw it… glad though…many Australians fought and its mostly forgotten. They lived their beliefs and died without fanfare..
    It would fitting to document and show it to people on the telly….ordinary but extraordinary people…

  81. Tom the first and best

    2139

    Follow the link in 2137 and read the inscription. A distinctly republican memorial (which is good).

  82. Psephos

    [I note you said ‘all’ twice. I take it this means the Nationalists and Republicans are listed together?]

    So far as I know, no Australians served with the Francoist forces. There was no international volunteer force comparable to the International Brigades serving on the Francoist side, although there were some individual fascists from other countries who volunteered. Franco of course had a large Italian Army force and a German Luftwaffe unit, the Condor Legion, serving with him.

  83. Psephos

    I may be wrong in saying that the names of the Australian volunteers are listed on the memorial. None of the photos I’ve looked at online shows names.

  84. absolutetwaddle

    I asked because I remember an awkward conversation with my late, earnestly Catholic grandfather in which he recalled a strong desire to join the Nationlist forces in Spain. He ended up somehow donating a large sum if money to the effort instead.

    Yeah.:/

    I figure given the militancy if the time at least a few Aussies ended up there on the side of fascism.

  85. Psephos

    [I figure given the militancy if the time at least a few Aussies ended up there on the side of fascism.]

    Not that I’ve ever heard, and I read most of the material on Australian involvement in Spain while I was researching my thesis.

  86. absolutetwaddle

    Psephos

    Good!

  87. lyndajcla

    I think this is really interesting and largely unknown history to many…Chrissie Pyne may not like it but it speaks of a time when people had empathy for one another and fought for it with their lives…they died because they knew it was important to do so…people who cared about working people’s lives…only unions gave us z better life….if they are destroyed then so are we…

  88. absolutetwaddle

    It was an unspeakably ugly conflict and I cannot help but marvel at the conviction and bravery of those that chose to stand against mechanised fascism in such a way. It boggles the mind.

  89. Psephos

    I broadly agree with both 2147 and 2148, but we should not overly romanticise the other side. The International Brigades were organised by the Comintern and served the propaganda purposes of Stalin’s regime. Republican Spain rapidly degenerated into a colony of Stalin’s Soviet Union, complete with secret police, purges and executions. Andres Nin, the leader of the Trotskyist POUM, for example, was murdered by the NKVD. By 1939 there wasn’t much to choose between the two sides.

  90. lyndajcla

    I guess your right psephos…great movements have created horrors that weren’t envisaged at the start.. when it all seemed clear..
    I’d rather be hopeful though of course people fuck stuff up….sadly so

  91. absolutetwaddle

    Psephos

    I am well aware of the pernicious influence of Stalinism on the Republican side but believe there was a brief window where it was possible merely to defend the republic without being used as a pawn by the Comintern.

    But yes, near the end it took on all the characteristics of a Hegelian tragedy.

  92. Psephos

    [I am well aware of the pernicious influence of Stalinism on the Republican side but believe there was a brief window where it was possible merely to defend the republic without being used as a pawn by the Comintern. ]

    The key text here, as I’m sure you know, is Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia.”

  93. absolutetwaddle

    I haven’t read that since I was a teenager, it’s about time for a re-read.

    Maybe after I finish The Spanish Holocaust, which this conversation inspired me to download.

  94. Otiose

    04:26:00 30/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

  95. frednk

    [Unitary State
    Posted Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Just a few hours ago, the smh poll had 76% dissagreeing with what Abbott had to say about the ABC.

    Now it is 61% who agree with him.

    WHAT THE HELL WENT ON THERE.
    ]
    Write a program to vote, delete the cookie and vote again. It really is quite simple. Why any one would bother is the issue.

  96. bemused

    Psephos@2134


    these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them


    There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.

    Correct except for the names being on it.

    When last in Canberra, I deliberately sought out this monument and had a good look. I was disappointed that it did not list the names as I had known a Spanish Civil War veteran and wanted to see his name listed.

  97. ShowsOn

    LOL TURNBULL CALLS ABBOTT A MORON!

  98. mari

    https://twitter.com/arveed/status/429016838412832768/photo/1

    Yes very selective is Tony Abbott memory