tip off

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor’s favour, and Morgan records little change.

UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

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  • 101
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes #93

    Logically, a good approval rating would increase the PV/2PP.

  • 102
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    Chronic medical conditions can include things like type 2 diabetes and hypertension, which if properly treated and kept under control do not normally cause disability (except possibly for heavy physical work). Usually the affected person, unless they suffer complications at a relatively young age, can keep working to pension age. It is not correct (or at least not a complete description of someone’s situation) to describe a person with a disability as having a ‘medical condition’.

  • 103
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    People talking about shorten not connecting reminds me of the dying days of the Howard government when Dennis Shanahan would plum the depths of the latest newspoll to find some demographic where Howard and /or the Tories had improved and declare all was not lost. We all know how that ended and six years later iShanahan is still in the same job. there was that crikey rumour around last week that he might be leaving the Australian, did anybody see any more on that.

  • 104
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    On the Polls, how usual is it for a first term Government to have such poor polling so quickly into said first term ?
    How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?

  • 105
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    rossmcg,

    He was being transferred to the astrology section of News. But all the wizards and withches wouldn’t have him because he gave the prediction industry a bad name.

  • 106
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    In Newspoll this last happened in July 2010 (Gillard honeymoon poll), before that in March 2010.

    Thanks.

    Nearly four years. Certainly a very long unbroken run of polling dominance.

    Though how deserved is open to question, particularly given how fast the Libs lost it once in power, with nowhere left hide and nobody else to blame.

    Tends to add weight to the argument that the endless ALP leadershit was the main factor in that run.

  • 107
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    Here’s the link:

    Labor says a new offence of causing death by assault would attract a maximum 20-year-jail term.

    I think the political class is generally not so foolish as to provide something too specific.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/victorian-opposition-proposes-new-one-punch-death-law-if-it-win/5220296

    Confessions,

    Don’t know, but sounds like a juicy dissentation topic :P

    I’m not sure when it was implemented in WA, but I would think fairly recent (within 2 years), and so may be difficult to quantify, as I would think re-offending would be something that would have to be included in a study.

    Rex,

    Sorry if that came out a bit too snappy :)

  • 108
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    YB,

    Howard struggled through most of his first term and nearly lost in 98. However, Abbott has certainly incinerated his political popularity at a rate that has everybody scratching their heads.

  • 109
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    I have no evidence-based view on the one punch laws – am not a lawyer or an expert on the criminal justice system, but am quite happy to accept the opinions of those who have such experience.

    It would be nice to know whether such laws have had any effect in locally-based settings, or even internationally. If not, then I’m happy to lump them alongside Barnett’s stupid shark cull program: reactionary, populist and regressive.

  • 110
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Nearly four years.

    Probably more like 3.5 years.

  • 111
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    Bugler:

    Thanks. I have to say that I’m not a fan of mandatory sentencing.

  • 112
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

    If sample size was 3,500 then margin of error is about 1.7%.

    The election is nearly 3 years away but leading is better than not leading. Maybe it wi make Abbott and. Co think twice before going to far with their Thatcherite program. After all, the voters who crossed to the dark side wanted the boats stopped, an end to leadership soap opera and lower electricity bills. Few wanted to dismantle Medicare, or have their wages cut.

  • 113
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    YB

    How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?

    About ten minutes after they discover someone they can live with who is neither Abbott nor Turnbull.

  • 114
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

    Poroti re post-1945 Welfare state
    ______________________
    You make a good point
    I have just read”Paris after the Liberation” and in the first post-Liberation election in France..,the largest numkber of vote/seats went to the Communist Party with 36%…the Socialists with 20% came next..and a spate of centre parties followed..the right was destroyed because many had sided with Vichy ands the Nazis

    De Gaulle had promised an all-party National Govt and he kept the promise. The CP wanted a left-gvernment as a prelude to power
    They got a swag of cabinet posts and the Dpt PM..and De Gaulle saw that only a left policy would arrest their rise…based on their wartime role in the Resistance and the heroic role of the Red Army in defeating Hitler

    So he got a Socialist PM and initiated a welfare state like that in Britain under Athlee’s Labour Govt and in a way
    This happened over much of Europe

    So the welfare state was a remedy against Communist advances
    in that post-war time

  • 115
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    I don’t want to be a party pooper, but is it likely that a poll taken over a long weekend would tend to skew to Labor?

    No, because it was conducted on Thursday.

  • 116
    poroti
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    Hands up anyone surprised. ……….Nobody ? Good.

    Jobs figures looking good for Coalition's new lobbyists

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott's insistence that Australia is ''open for business'' is being embraced by lobbyists, with dozens of the biggest companies having signed up to Coalition-aligned influence peddlers already this year for representation in Canberra.

    The torrent of activity in the increasingly partisan lobbying industry has in turn sparked a mini jobs boom for former Howard government ministers, retired Coalition MPs and Liberal operatives.

    Nick Minchin, the Howard-era finance minister, has joined Alexander Downer at Bespoke Approach whose client list includes Wesfarmers, coal seam gas miner Santos and Chinese-owned coal miner Yancoal.

    Former treasurer Peter Costello co-owns Melbourne-based ECG Advisory Solutions with his one time political adviser David Gazard. ECG has Westpac, Transurban and detention centre operators Serco on its books

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jobs-figures-looking-good-for-coalitions-new-lobbyists-20140126-31gvg.html#ixzz2raefQgR3

  • 117
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

    Sorry, taken the dogs outside, Stephen Fry came on the tele and my sister was telling me in depth about how I should watch Frozen

    GG,

    Generally agree. However, straying into opinion territory, I think most offenders can be rehabilitated but the public and the politicians lack the stomach and concentration to implement something effective (One could cynically argue that crime is at the perfect levels to be politically convenient, low enough that it doesn’t cause so much trouble but high enough to make it an issue for people to pretend to do something about it).

    Confessions,

    I am generally opposed to the sort of “blunt instrument” approaches, on principal and because of lack of evidence. I can be convinced if the evidence is there. However, as with most things, the heavy handed political solution isn’t usually the best.

  • 118
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    One would assume SH-Y will finally challenge for a leadership position in the Greens Party in the near future ?

  • 119
    citizen
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    There have been very few Newspolls published since the election.

    From the Newspoll site: “Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings”

    10/12/13
    26/11/13
    12/11/13
    29/10/13

    http://www.newspoll.com.au/opinion-polls-2/opinion-polls-2/

  • 120
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    Work for the Dole….maintenance, repairs, gardening at aged care places.

    Who says they have the skills?

    And what will the private owner pay to have this cheap labour?

    Which Liberal MP’s own an aged care facility?

  • 121
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    For those on the “politics is everything” brigade, I also think this is politically unsound suggestion by Vic Labor as it’s an issue that the Liberals have an upper hand

    Fran @113,

    Agree totally :) .

  • 122
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    34

    I had mentioned economic policy change, just not that particular effect by name.

    Thee has been a little to much emphasis on inflation control because of the oil shock stagflation.

  • 123
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    Fran Barlow@113

    YB


    How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?


    About ten minutes after they discover someone they can live with who is neither Abbott nor Turnbull.

    Which begs another question, why the hatred of Turnbull amongst the Tories ?
    Turnbull is seemingly popular amongst the masses, why not swallow their pride if it leads to some sort of sustained electoral success ?

  • 124
    prettyone
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    ” Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.

    ALPs lead should be greater.”

    Hi Sean

    Don’t get downhearted about the 2pp: it’s to be expected, like I said before we’re in the bottom
    of the mining downswing, the $AUD is unstable and worryingly USA and China economies are troubling.
    (and we can’t get of those damn carton and mining taxes because the ALP/Greens are obstructive on purpose).

    Sean, Tony Abbott is now a popular PM. He’s respected and trusted. This is all good and very important.
    Mr Shorten is not cutting through.

    Remember, 2014 will be ups and downs but 2015/2016 we’re set and will have a conservative government
    for a number of terms.

    Don’t fret, Sean.

  • 125
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    Rex Douglas@101

    Diogenes #93

    Logically, a good approval rating would increase the PV/2PP.

    Not reliably. The relationship between Opposition Leader ratings and voting intention exists but it is weak. Tends to be drowned out by other forces a lot of the time.

  • 126
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    92

    The ALP are not proposing increased maximum sentences. They are proposing a new offence of “assault causing death” (or thereabouts) with the same maximum sentence (level 3 imprisonment (20 years)) as manslaughter.

  • 127
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    However, as with most things, the heavy handed political solution isn’t usually the best.

    Hell yeah. Can’t disagree with you on that.

  • 128
    Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    GG.

    (Dennis Shanahan) was being transferred to the astrology section of News. But all the wizards and withches wouldn’t have him because he gave the prediction industry a bad name.

    LOL,

    Like this turkey:

    http://scenecreek.com/features/good-scenes-come-to-those-who-wait/attachment/gilderoy-lockhart-harry-potter/

  • 129
    victoria
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    By John Menadue
    Posted 8 hours 31 minutes ago

    The appointment of a former military opponent of Indonesia as the Queen’s representative in Australia would not help improve the fractured bilateral relationship, writes John Menadue.

    Could we do more to offend the Indonesians? Yes, I think we could, by appointing, as has been suggested, Peter Cosgrove as our next governor general.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/menadue-is-another-indonesia-faux-pas-imminent/5220544

  • 130
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Re Jakarta Newspapers
    _______________
    If you want to muddy further Abbott Indonesian waters you might try as I have started to do…write to either of the English language newspapers there and state a few home truth to Indonesians readers

    Like the way in which an islamophobe like Bernardi was until recently Abbott’s Parlt Secretary…or the similar stuff in Websites like “Menzies House” which is always running an anti-islamic rant
    They will be shocked to know I suspect

    These papers publish letters and may even take articles from our local press…..Menzies House will shock them
    None will make Abbott more loved there

    I also have a grand-daughter who is a brilliant Indonesian language scholar and has completed Year 12(after 9 years since Gr 3) and will do further Uni studies on the language
    She is helping translate stuff for me to lob into the Indonesian press
    Have a go and see

    Daily Jakarta papers… The Jakarta Post .com.
    ………………………The Jakarta Globe.com

  • 131
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Yesiree Bob@104

    On the Polls, how usual is it for a first term Government to have such poor polling so quickly into said first term ?

    At federal level it has never happened before. That said we only have early-term polling for six previous first-term governments.

  • 132
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    Pretty person

    and we can’t get of those damn carton and mining taxes because the ALP/Greens are obstructive on purpose).

    Why shouldn’t these, very large companies, pay for the pollution they produce and environmental destruction that they wreck ?
    Moreover, why shouldn’t they pay for our resources that they, at the moment, exploit for their profit, at our expense.
    It’s not their resources, ITS OURS !!!!.

  • 133
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

    Abbott continues to parade his stupidity on the world stage…what an embarrassment he is, he is so stupid he believes the international community will believe his lies

    Abbott’s speech confirmed the nagging suspicions many have had since he assumed the prime ministership, following one of the most manipulated media campaigns in any democracy in living memory.

    It repeated all the trite slogans that worked in Western Sydney:

    “You can’t spend what you haven’t got.”

    “Markets are the proven answer to the problem of scarcity.”

    “No country has ever taxed or subsidised its way to prosperity.”

    Two stupidities.

    First, it was precisely that extensive rapid spending through the GFC which saw Australia rise from 10th-ranked economy in 2007 to the world’s top ranking by 2012, a reality all those present with an awareness of the G20 economies would have known.

    Secondly, attacks on domestic opponents are never acceptable abroad.

    In New York last October, Abbott was roundly condemned for a political attack on Kevin Rudd.

    American Academic Clinton Fernandes said he created an image of

    “… coarseness, amateurishness and viciousness.”

    Political scientist Norman Ornstein surmised:

    “Perhaps you can chalk it up to a rookie mistake. But it is a pretty big one.”

    Clearly, Abbott has learned nothing from that humiliation three months ago.

    Abbott then continued to spruik domestic politics — the commission of audit, paid parental leave, cutting the numbers of pensioners, and infrastructure, especially roads:

    “… because time spent in traffic jams is time lost from work and family.”

    He concluded with a final hypocrisy — following his attack on Labor for spending so much on infrastructure during the GFC.

    He gobsmacked anyone still listening with this:

    “Then, there’s the worldwide ‘infrastructure deficit’, with the OECD estimating that over 50 trillion dollars in infrastructure investment is needed by 2030.”

  • 134
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott is now a popular PM. He’s respected and trusted

    HA HA HA HA HA HA Jeepers, don’t you just love satire from people that don’t even realise that they are being satirical ?

  • 135
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    Tom,

    I was probably too broad in my original explanation, yes (hence the linking, so people can keep me and my opinions in check). I can’t see that it detracts from my point, though.

  • 136
    prettyone
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Also Sean

    I note conservatives are having kittens about the add-on to the Constitution regarding acknowledging the original inhabitants.
    Gee – where’s the loyalty?!!

    It’s a good thing, as it recognises our heritages in every sense.
    When people say it won’t help the disadvantage Aboriginals (still!) suffer – that’s true, but this is about
    a bringing together. Mr Rudd’s apology was excellent and beautiful, and altering the Constitutional is just
    an administrative action. Trust in Tony Abbott, all will be good.

  • 137
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    YB @123: Which begs another question, why the hatred of Turnbull amongst the Tories

    Because Malolm Turnbull is a (small ‘l’) liberal or the closest approach to one in a party of the hard right. He also believes we should be doing something about climate change. He is still as far as I know a republican. He has as much chance of leading the ‘Liberal’ party in the future as I have.

  • 138
    citizen
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Deblonay

    I also have a grand-daughter who is a brilliant Indonesian language scholar and has completed Year 12(after 9 years since Gr 3) and will do further Uni studies on the language
    She is helping translate stuff for me to lob into the Indonesian press

    You probably already know about this, but Wikipedia has an article listing a host of Indonesian newspapers published in Indonesian, English and other languages.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_Indonesia

  • 139
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    I could have sworn I read “ShowsOn” instead of “prettyone”.

  • 140
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    The Libs might hate Turnbull. They might distrust his social policies. They may even despise his positions on climate change and homosexual marriage.

    However, if Abbott’s leadership becomes terminal, they will embrace him with open arms. Never ever get between the Libs and their White Ministerial Cars.

  • 141
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes #88

    “Disabilities are medical conditions which may fluctuate.

    However most medical conditions are disabilities.”

    Both these statements are incorrect ……. I suggest you test both statements with a colleague who actually has knowledge of disabilities.

    Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition ….. It neither arises “medically” nor requires “medical” treatment. Similarly loss of an arm in a workplace chain saw accident creates a disability, which although it may need acute medical treatment in the immediate term, is not in the long term a matter of medicine (my father’s brother, a war amputee needed no medical treatment vis a vis his leg, for the next 55 years of his life.)

    Conversely, regarding your second sentence, I suggest that you refer your next appendectomy patient to the NDIS, or your next cholecystectomy patient. Good luck with that.

  • 142
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    Spoke to an elderly bluerinse lib diehard on the north shore this afternoon and she was super unimpressed with Tone. Scoffed at the notion that naval boats accidentally went into Indonesian waters. I doubled down by mentioning Christopher Pine and got a scowl. Tone is shoring up his bogan base and losing everybody else. No way to win an election.
    The question is not whether present polling means anything. The question is whether Tone and his motley crew can lift their act. There are absolutely no signs they can, which means they are odds on to be onetermers.

  • 143
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    I could have sworn I read “ShowsOn” instead of “prettyone”.

    No liberally interspersed ‘MOFO’ among the sentences.

  • 144
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    GG – I agree. But I really doubt Turnbull would be much of a saviour. He would just expose the divisions and cynicism of his party.

  • 145
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    So f ucking what?

  • 146
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    @prettyone/136

    You are complete idiot to trust a Coalition Party PM, let alone any other PM.

    Everyone remembers the hatred that Howard bring in when he was watering down the entitlement act’s.

    Abbott is favored by Howard himself.

  • 147
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    Anyhoo, don’t blame me, I voted Labor

  • 148
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    prettyone – writing notes to self (Sean)

  • 149
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    @GG/140

    Which are now bulletproof BMW’s.

  • 150
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    Back in my previous life I worked in a fairly sporting office and we would run a sweep on just about anything.
    Two bucks in and pick the winner and margin sort of stuff.
    Perhaps we could have one here, without the two bucks. Who will be the first press gallery hack to write a leadership yarn this year and will it be Labor or Tory?

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