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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 27, 2014

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor's favour, and Morgan records little change.

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UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2159 comments

2,159 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

  1. mikehilliard

    Election now!

  2. mari

    What can I say but what a time to log onto PB

  3. confessions

    poroti:

    It relates to his blog post today in which he argues against the current mechanism for changing the constitution.
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/abbott_and_bolt_both_wrong/

    Personally I think he makes a valid point. Some things are simply beyond the capability of voters voting in referendums.

  4. Fran Barlow

    From last thread

    Personally, I prefer the current s128 provision, though it’s still not good. I’d prefer a simple Australia votes as a single electoral division model. I’d also like it to be possible for voters to rank similar proposals much as preferential voting allows people to rank candidates.

    There should also be scope for voters to indicate why they made the choices they did in a simple multiple choice format. That would give those with a stake in the matter guidance on the outcome if it failed or passed with some reservations.

  5. mikehilliard

    From previous thread.

    Apologies if already posted.

    [a message that International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde was hammering home in Davos.

    “Business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum should remember that in far too many countries the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by far too few people. This is not a recipe for stability and sustainability,” she said.

    It is telling to contrast this with comments by Prime Minister Tony Abbott at the same event. He avoided endorsing calls for a focus on inequality above and beyond economic growth, saying: ”As always, stronger economic growth is the key to addressing almost every global problem.”

    This is not some isolated quote; it reflects the government’s economic philosophy. His primary message for the leaders at Davos was to choose policies that made way for business and to avoid “government-knows-best action”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/advance-australia-fair-maybe-not-20140126-31gpz.html#ixzz2ra5ZQE9K

  6. William Bowe

    Any time is a great time to log on to PB, Mari.

  7. Darren Laver

    On primaries looks like there were modest gains for Labor and Greens, and a modest fall for Coalition — less than 0.5 points in each case…

    They also said something about Abbott’s approval figures improving and Shorten’s worsening without giving numbers.

    Watching Seven News Sydney is an eye-opener – so much violent crime is reported as headlines… it’s “action news” as the Yanks used to say.

  8. Darren Laver

    [Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 6:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Any time is a great time to log on to PB, Mari.]

    True!

  9. Fran Barlow

    If it bleeds, it leads Darren.

  10. mari

    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 6:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Any time is a great time to log on to PB, Mari.

    Touche William 😀

  11. mari

    Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 6:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 6:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Any time is a great time to log on to PB, Mari.

    True!

    Of course Darren, but some times are better than others and this is one 🙂

  12. mikehilliard

    From article posted by victoria -Stop the boats asylum seeker policy ‘morally corrupt and indefensible’, former Navy officer says

    [(retired RAN Captain John Ingram)

    “We’ve painted ourselves into a corner. We need an honourable way out. And we need a way out very soon.”]

  13. poroti

    mikehilliard

    [This is not a recipe for stability and sustainability,” ]

    As I’ve mentioned several times before. JK Galbraith, who was there, said the post war push for the welfare state was not for the benefit of the poor. It was for the benefit of the “elites”. They being the ones who saw an incredible destruction of wealth during and after the war. Virtually total behind the iron Curtain.

    The theory was that it was the poverty of the 20’s + 30’s which made extreme politics attractive to the masses. So if a system was set up to prevent people falling in to such depths of poverty then they would not be attracted to extreme politics/ideologies.

    The 1% seem to have forgotten that.

  14. briefly

    That figures…Abbott comes back from holiday, makes an ass of himself, Labor’s numbers improve.

  15. mikehilliard

    Outlaws here for dinner, catch you all later. 😉

  16. zoomster

    poroti

    On that, I once heard a senior New York policeman being interviewed on the radio.

    He said wtte of “When I saw how generous your welfare policies were, I wondered why anybody worked. And then I saw your crime stats, and I’m a convert.”

  17. Schnappi

    Work for the dole was a failure.

    A Conclusion in a report on abbott and his attitude to his welfare wording .

    Conclusion

    Most leading government figures including John Howard and PeterCostello favor some retrenchment of the welfare state. However,their agendas seem to be moderated by broader political andelectoral pragmatism.In contrast, Tony Abbott’s attack on the welfare state isdriven by an unqualified belief in neoliberal agendas andsolutions. Abbott’s objective is to redefine unemployment assolely a matter of personal motivation and character, ratherthan as a broader question of government policy and societalstructures. The solution being to remove the welfare safety netso as to encourage and ultimately bully the unemployed intoaccepting whatever jobs may be available

  18. mexicanbeemer

    Work for the dole might work if it was a real placement in which a person gained exposure to their preferred career.

    For example if interested in health care then a month in a hospital might have some benefit.

  19. confessions

    briefly:

    Did you see this new service from the BoM, a heatwave forecast?
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/

    It was released a couple of weeks ago, but I missed it when it first came out. Pretty cool.

  20. poroti

    Zoomster

    Brilliant and exactly so. What is going to happen in the US when millions, thanks to the Repugnants , lose their food stamps this year ? Starve or steal ? I know what I’d pick.

  21. briefly

    [19
    confessions]

    Thanks for the link, confessions. The BoM do good work – really good work.

  22. Darn

    Is this the bombshell ESJ was rabbiting on about a couple of days ago?

  23. mexicanbeemer

    Yes the silly Repubs, lock the unemployed out of the economy only hurts you economically and socially but yeah they clearly don’t have a clue.

  24. mexicanbeemer

    Clearly those who think any job is good enough don’t have much H.R or recruitment experience as any one with such experience will tell you that the job title is pretty important at determining the roles open to you.

  25. zoomster

    poroti

    I’m astonished America is still holding it together. The power of the dream must be very strong.

  26. briefly

    17
    Schnappi

    We have had nearly of 70 years of social insurance mediated by the Commonwealth. It’s hardly generous, but it does work and it has served the community, its most disadvantaged members and the economy for a long time. The LNP seem to wish to undo this for no good reason – perhaps simply to extinguish Chifley’s light on the hill once and for all, to confront Labor and to punish those who support them.

  27. Darn

    Does anyone know when we last saw a poll – any poll – showing 53-47 to Labor?

  28. William Bowe

    [Is this the bombshell ESJ was rabbiting on about a couple of days ago?]

    I believe he was referring to his “sex change”. Crazy name – crazy guy.

  29. mexicanbeemer

    Not sure, maybe during 2007/08 maybe some in 2009

  30. don

    confessions@19

    briefly:

    Did you see this new service from the BoM, a heatwave forecast?
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/

    It was released a couple of weeks ago, but I missed it when it first came out. Pretty cool.

    Thanks Fess. Bookmarked.

  31. dave

    victoria@568

    A retired senior Royal Australian Navy (RAN) officer has hit out at the Federal Government’s stop the boats policy as “morally corrupt and totally indefensible”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/coalition-boats-policy-morally-indefensible-says-john-ingram/5220886

    I would be amazed if there are not a lot more RAN personnel, retired and active who feel the same way.

    abbott playing with fire. Deaths can easily occur to our service people as well as the AS in the high risk circumstances this has all become. Damaging the ADF’s hard earnt reputation too boot and politicising them as well.

    Not that it worries abbott & morrison, atm anyway.

  32. William Bowe

    The last Morgan poll was 53-47 on previous election preferences, if that counts.

  33. Darn

    Thanks William. I think Bemused sort of tried to explain that to me the other night but I didn’t quite get what he was talking about.

  34. MagicPudding

    In the discussion here (now on the previous thread) of unemployment, no-one has mentioned the NAIRU – the “Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment”. Until the 1970’s, the economic policy settings of Australia and similar countries were aimed at maintaining full employment. The rise of neoliberal economics saw the emphasis change, and the primary task of central banks became, and remains, to keep inflation at a low level. In the theory they use, if unemployment drops below the NAIRU it is a sign that the economy is overheating and inflation will rise, so they must raise interest rates until the extra employment goes away.

    This means that government policy deliberately maintains unemployment at or around the NAIRU, and this rate is redefined as “full employment”, throwing one person in 20 under the bus and defining them out of existence. Government policy does not make any particular person unemployed, but it does ensure that somebody will be. Since the choice of who gets employment is left almost entirely to the free market, mostly the same groups of people will be regarded as the least desirable employees, and will remain unemployed for long periods.

    It may really be necessary for the health of the economy to maintain a pool of unemployed, but if that is so, the people subsisting on tiny incomes should be thanked for their contribution, not stigmatised so as to make their life even more difficult. there should also be more effort to share unemployment around, rather than have it always fall to the same people.

    This is not a partisan issue; both parties have the same policies in this area. I generally liked and admired Gillard, but when questioned about the inadequacy of the Newstart Allowance, she mumbled the Tory line about the best welfare being a job, and went on with insulting rubbish about kids needing to see their parents going to work. The insinuation is that unemployment is the fault of the unemployed. I maintain that it is immoral to call someone a bludger until you have offered them a job and they have refused it.

    Thanks to Himi ( I think) for the link to Bill Mitchell’s blog; his “Job Guarantee” idea
    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?cat=23
    is about the best suggestion for addressing these problems that I have come across.

  35. poroti

    Just for a larf

    [John Howard 1987 Election Commercial]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HokVECktpTo

  36. sohar

    Where did “Edward” go for his/her sex change. Did he/she get a government rebate?

  37. Darn

    Thanks again William – I forgot about the Morgan. But I was really wanting to know how far back before that we have to go to get a 53-47 to Labor.

  38. spur212

    More from ReachTEL

    Primary vote

    Coalition 39.8, Labor 40.6 Greens 9.1

  39. spur212

    Abbott’s rating has improved, Shorten’s rating has fallen.

    Also some stuff on the public’s predictions on the economy. Mostly gloomy

  40. poroti

    MagicPudding

    +100 Darn right. It was all about “slaying” the inflation dragon. The first and second oil crisies were most excellent excuses for them to push their barrow.

  41. Acerbic Conehead

    Darn,

    [Is this the bombshell ESJ was rabbiting on about a couple of days ago?]

    I think this is what he was crapping on about:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/01/23/bludgertrack-52-5-47-5-to-labor/?comment_page=15/#comment-1894322

  42. William Bowe

    Ryan Moore ‏@mooreryan3 1m
    #Reachtel Poll Australian Economy: Right direction 34.9 Wrong direction 39.3 Undecided 25.8 #auspol

    Ryan Moore ‏@mooreryan3 2m
    #Reachtel Poll Financial position this year: Better off 20.3 Worse off 39.3 Undecided 40.4 #auspol

  43. Carey Moore

    [Where did “Edward” go for his/her sex change. Did he/she get a government rebate?]

    She might be transgender (i.e. identifies as a female, but is biologically male) and therefore didn’t need a sex change.

  44. poroti

    sohar

    I had one of these from the farm ready and waiting but Edwina nee Edward went elsewhere. 🙂

    http://aces.nmsu.edu/pubs/_b/b-227/images/Figure_03_opt.jpeg

  45. Edwina StJohn

    Its hard to be an opinion leader but I take up the challenge with relish.

    Good to see the Liberals under pressure – there not worth a crumpet if they cant deal with the pressure of governing and the viccisitudes of opinion polls.

  46. Ratsars

    I know that Polls today are no guide to an election in 2.5 years time but it gladdens my heart

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 48m
    #ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-1) ALP 53 (+1) #auspo

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
    #ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 39.8 (-1.6) ALP 40.6 (+0.2) GRN 9.1 (+0.4) #auspol

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I see channel 7 had to dig to the bottom of the stats barrel in news tonight. They said Abbott will be pleased that his disapproval rating has gone down while Shorten’s as gone up. Probably all within the MOE anyway.
    😆

  48. psyclaw

    #469 Page 10, previous thread, was to Kezza, not “Mezzanine”.

    Bloody iPhone auto correct ….

  49. guytaur

    So the Coalition has not improved in the polls.

    Memo to Abbott secrecy is not helping.

  50. Darn

    Thanks AC. I missed that announcement. I guess it IS something of a bomb shell.

    These changes of gender are not as rare as one might think. I had one in my circle of friends a few years ago. It seemed really weird at the time but we all got used to it after a while and it seems to have been successful for the individual involved.

  51. Steve777

    Bemused back at 526 in the previous thread – interesting link to Michael Spence’s article. Some Government leadership / public investment being needed to grow employment. Free markets on their own can’t do it.

  52. zoomster

    The nice thing about the these polls (it being too far out in the cycle to really be of much use federally) is that they must be scaring the cr*p out of those Liberal Opposition leaders facing a state election this year.

    Been cruising, up til now — but now voters are being reminded, thanks to dear Tony, that what Liberals promise and what they deliver are very often vastly different things…

  53. guytaur

    zoomster

    Also explains no Abbott in Griffith and the panic attempts to try avoid a Senate election in WA

  54. Kevin Bonham

    Just checked the available primaries to see what they come out to as a decimal 2PP (because ReachTEL rounds the 2PP) but I get 53.0-47.0 on my formula for that anyway.

    As the current Morgan series appear skewed to Labor this is the worst poll for the Abbott government so far.

  55. confessions

    There is also the Senate re-run in WA which might also be worrying the coalition in terms of these polls.

  56. guytaur

    I hope some detail William is getting will be what people think is more important stopping boats or avoiding war with Indonesia

  57. Rex Douglas

    Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.

    ALPs lead should be greater.

  58. zoidlord

    From the other thread:

    @guytaur/422

    yup sums up Coalition Party Work For Dole, requires a job in the first place.
    581
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

    The talk of number of hours that a person on DSP can do is useless, it’s the participation rate that is important.

  59. spur212

    This is just a guess: Abbott has already been around for 4 years as opposition leader and he’s had a public profile since around 2001. I reckon people are sick and tired of him already. He has no story to relate with and it’s all process like Gillard. The only difference is his process stuff is ideological rather than pragmatic (which gives him more of a base to play with).

    We’ll see if that plays out over the next few months or so

  60. Darn

    [Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 7:33 pm | Permalink
    Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.

    ALPs lead should be greater.]

    I get the impression Rex that you’d still be complaining if it was 55-45.

  61. Rex Douglas

    Darn,

    What do you suggest is the reason for Shortens fall in approval ?

  62. himi

    Magic Pudding @34:

    I discovered Bill Mitchell’s blog via (I think) Victoria, and I’ve been quite impressed by the stuff I’ve read there. I was asking about MMT because it almost seems too good to be true – a branch of economics that seems like it has potential to not only provide real predictive power, but also supports a whole lot of progressive shibboleths.

    The job guarantee is a really really wonderful idea to my mind. Much better than current unemployment policies, more humane, and more economically sensible. Sadly, it’s probably politically impossible, at least in this country. Maybe after the next revolution against the 0.1% . . .

    himi

  63. guytaur

    Rex Douglas

    Wait until we see figures. If MOE its no change.

  64. Darn

    William and Kevin

    I don’t want to be a party pooper, but is it likely that a poll taken over a long weekend would tend to skew to Labor?

  65. Fran Barlow

    [Rex Douglas: Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.]

    I did a straw poll the other day and it turns out that he isn’t connecting with people sitting on park benches, hosing their front yards or wearing sandwich boards either. All of them are pretty casual also.

    Next week, I might try asking the pretty vacant. 😉

  66. zoidlord

    In regards to new ReachTel poll, I’m not surprised, simply because it is not just Abbott that is the problem, it’s the Coalition Party.

    Out of Touch, Out of Ideas, this government has done zero to help the jobs or the economy that it so said it will help to fix.

  67. Kevin Bonham

    Should be noted that ReachTEL don’t provide approval ratings as such. They are performance ratings: very good, good, satisfactory, poor, very poor. Now while the poor and very poor are clearly disapprovals and the very good and good are clearly approvals, the “satisfactory” term is ambiguous – it can be taken as neutral or positive. By comparison with other polls I think about half of those who say “satisfactory” would also say “approve”.

  68. Just Me

    [Primary vote: Coalition 39.8, Labor 40.6]

    Must be while since the LNP primary vote has been below both 40 and Labor’s primary.

  69. Steve777

    Re Schnappi @17: The solution being to remove the welfare safety net so as to encourage and ultimately bully the unemployed intoaccepting whatever jobs may be available

    And there’s the rub – what jobs? The unemployed are unemployed because the jobs aren’t there. There can’t be many people who want to try to live on $250 while being made to go through a sorts of hoops for the privilege. The neoliberal solution is to eliminate the minimum wage. And where will these people working full time for $250 per week live? In shanty towns in the fringes of our cities like in the third world?

  70. guytaur

    100 days of boats and not supporting jobs as in Holden has produced these results.

    When are journalists going to ask was the Howard win 9/11 not boats?

  71. confessions

    How many people were polled in this Reachtel?

  72. Kevin Bonham

    Just Me@68


    Primary vote: Coalition 39.8, Labor 40.6


    Must be while since the LNP primary vote has been below both 40 and Labor’s primary.

    In Newspoll this last happened in July 2010 (Gillard honeymoon poll), before that in March 2010.

  73. himi

    Kevin Bonham@67

    Should be noted that ReachTEL don’t provide approval ratings as such. They are performance ratings: very good, good, satisfactory, poor, very poor. Now while the poor and very poor are clearly disapprovals and the very good and good are clearly approvals, the “satisfactory” term is ambiguous – it can be taken as neutral or positive. By comparison with other polls I think about half of those who say “satisfactory” would also say “approve”.

    “Satisfactory” definitely seems like a positive, though not strongly positive. It might be equated with a passing grade – good enough, though not worthy of extra praise.

    himi

  74. Rex Douglas

    ABC News ‏@abcnews 14m
    Jacki Weaver is named as the 39th recipient of the Raymond Longford Award for roles in movies over the past 52 years. http://t.co/tFCkTENo2Z

    What an aussie legend !

  75. psyclaw

    Dilgenes

    “medical condition” and “disability” are not synonymous terms.

    The demography which mainly uses the terms interchangeably, and thus to many persons with a disability insultingly, is medicos.”

    Who said they were synonymous?

    Youused them synonymously at #502 in the previous thread in the discussion about the Disability Pension.

  76. don

    poroti@44

    sohar

    I had one of these from the farm ready and waiting but Edwina nee Edward went elsewhere.

    http://aces.nmsu.edu/pubs/_b/b-227/images/Figure_03_opt.jpeg

    Not funny, Poroti.

  77. psyclaw

    #75

    Sorry …….big fingers, little iPhone.

    Should be “Diogenes”.

  78. Bugler

    Vic Opposition have promised to propose “one punch” laws. I have to say I’m a little disappointed and a little surprised as they’re electorally unnecessary and the issue would likely have disappeared before the election, and the proposed laws don’t achieve or really do anything. I don’t know how wise it is for Labor to make law and order an issue, especially so late in the cycle when they’re doing so well because of other issues. If anything, it gives the Liberals a chance to discuss what little they have done.

  79. Bugler

    I hate to be one of those people, but… *test*

  80. Bugler

    … and this is why I’m not in IT

  81. guytaur

    @SwannyQLD: As @NYTimeskrugman says, the right use debt obsession to slash social programs #thatsjustwhattheydo http://t.co/SsfgngqeRH

  82. WeWantPaul

    [Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.

    ALPs lead should be greater.]

    You have got to be drunk still, that is a Sean silly post.

  83. guytaur

    One thing we can conclude. The trend is still going towards Labor not away.

  84. Rex Douglas

    Bugler #78

    Harsh deterrents are needed.

  85. poroti

    Bugler

    Re “One Punch ” laws. Ya reckon the lawyers might argue 2,3,4 punches were thrown ?

  86. spur212

    Confessions

    The sample was 3500

  87. Rex Douglas

    WWP #82

    If Shorten was connecting, his approval wouldn’t be stagnating.

  88. Diogenes

    psyclaw

    Disabilities are medical conditions which may fluctuate.

    However most medical conditions are disabilities.

  89. guytaur

    Rex Douglas.

    You do not know that. We have not seen the figures.

  90. Steve777

    The last time I think Labor polled 53:47 was in the early part of 2010 before Labour announced that it was postponing a response to the ‘greatest moral challenge of our time’. That seemed to be the turning point.

  91. spur212

    As Kevin Bonham @67 notes, ReachTEL’s personal ratings are a bit different to other major pollsters. I wouldn’t pay much attention to them in regards to any movements one way or the other at this point.

  92. Bugler

    Rex Douglas,

    For starters, Labor is proposing increased maximum penalties, not increased penalties. Then, there’s the problem that the Liberals have already increased minimum sentences and reduced suspended sentences. Third, both approaches are bunkum for reasons I and other posters have outlined before. If you’re willing to read through studies, I can provide them. To use the most extreme examples, states in the US that have the death penalty by also have higher violent crime rates.

    This “coward punch” episode is going to be remembered in the history of criminology and where governments say a lot but do nothing.

  93. Diogenes

    [If Shorten was connecting, his approval wouldn’t be stagnating.]

    As long as Labor are winning the 2PP, Shorten’s approval means bugger all.

  94. confessions

    Bugler:

    What penalties are Vic Labor proposing, if any to the so-called one-punch laws?

    We have similar laws in WA, and I have no idea whether they’ve contributed to curbing the incidence of violent attacks in the Perth nightclub area which we were seeing a few years ago.

  95. Diogenes

    poroti

    [

    Re “One Punch ” laws. Ya reckon the lawyers might argue 2,3,4 punches were thrown ?]

    Or a kick. Or a baseball bat. The possibilities are endless.

  96. Rex Douglas

    Bugler,

    My #84 was just a general comment.

  97. confessions

    Thanks spur. 3500 is a hefty sample.

  98. confessions

    [Re “One Punch ” laws. Ya reckon the lawyers might argue 2,3,4 punches were thrown ?]

    Has this been the case here with our laws?

  99. Bugler

    Poroti,

    Well, I could only at best give a bush lawyer opinion, and I can’t even say for sure if Labor actually intends, if it wins office, to implement them. I’m not certain this idea came from Andrews. I doubt they’ve formulated a full policy and are just “feeding the chooks”, i guess, or looking for a reaction and seeing how it goes from there.

    P.S. When I finished HS I did apply for Arts/Law, but didn’t get a high enough score. When I got a good enough score to transfer to Arts/Law or Law I decided I was happy with what I was doing and went for the double major instead. (If I’m still unemployable after I finish, I guess a JD is always an option)

  100. Greensborough Growler

    Bugler,

    Agree. Young men have been punching on forever. Sure, you can reduce alchol availability. However you are never going to get rid of testorone, young men with a chip on their shoulder and smart arse teenagers that know just enough to talk themselves in to trouble.

    These events occur, will continue to occcur and harsher penalties are not going to change a thing.

  101. Rex Douglas

    Diogenes #93

    Logically, a good approval rating would increase the PV/2PP.

  102. Steve777

    Chronic medical conditions can include things like type 2 diabetes and hypertension, which if properly treated and kept under control do not normally cause disability (except possibly for heavy physical work). Usually the affected person, unless they suffer complications at a relatively young age, can keep working to pension age. It is not correct (or at least not a complete description of someone’s situation) to describe a person with a disability as having a ‘medical condition’.

  103. rossmcg

    People talking about shorten not connecting reminds me of the dying days of the Howard government when Dennis Shanahan would plum the depths of the latest newspoll to find some demographic where Howard and /or the Tories had improved and declare all was not lost. We all know how that ended and six years later iShanahan is still in the same job. there was that crikey rumour around last week that he might be leaving the Australian, did anybody see any more on that.

  104. Yesiree Bob

    On the Polls, how usual is it for a first term Government to have such poor polling so quickly into said first term ?
    How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?

  105. Greensborough Growler

    rossmcg,

    He was being transferred to the astrology section of News. But all the wizards and withches wouldn’t have him because he gave the prediction industry a bad name.

  106. Just Me

    [In Newspoll this last happened in July 2010 (Gillard honeymoon poll), before that in March 2010.]

    Thanks.

    Nearly four years. Certainly a very long unbroken run of polling dominance.

    Though how deserved is open to question, particularly given how fast the Libs lost it once in power, with nowhere left hide and nobody else to blame.

    Tends to add weight to the argument that the endless ALP leadershit was the main factor in that run.

  107. Bugler

    Here’s the link:

    [Labor says a new offence of causing death by assault would attract a maximum 20-year-jail term.]

    I think the political class is generally not so foolish as to provide something too specific.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/victorian-opposition-proposes-new-one-punch-death-law-if-it-win/5220296

    Confessions,

    Don’t know, but sounds like a juicy dissentation topic 😛

    I’m not sure when it was implemented in WA, but I would think fairly recent (within 2 years), and so may be difficult to quantify, as I would think re-offending would be something that would have to be included in a study.

    Rex,

    Sorry if that came out a bit too snappy 🙂

  108. Greensborough Growler

    YB,

    Howard struggled through most of his first term and nearly lost in 98. However, Abbott has certainly incinerated his political popularity at a rate that has everybody scratching their heads.

  109. confessions

    I have no evidence-based view on the one punch laws – am not a lawyer or an expert on the criminal justice system, but am quite happy to accept the opinions of those who have such experience.

    It would be nice to know whether such laws have had any effect in locally-based settings, or even internationally. If not, then I’m happy to lump them alongside Barnett’s stupid shark cull program: reactionary, populist and regressive.

  110. Just Me

    [Nearly four years.]

    Probably more like 3.5 years.

  111. confessions

    Bugler:

    Thanks. I have to say that I’m not a fan of mandatory sentencing.

  112. Steve777

    If sample size was 3,500 then margin of error is about 1.7%.

    The election is nearly 3 years away but leading is better than not leading. Maybe it wi make Abbott and. Co think twice before going to far with their Thatcherite program. After all, the voters who crossed to the dark side wanted the boats stopped, an end to leadership soap opera and lower electricity bills. Few wanted to dismantle Medicare, or have their wages cut.

  113. Fran Barlow

    YB

    [How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?]

    About ten minutes after they discover someone they can live with who is neither Abbott nor Turnbull.

  114. deblonay

    Poroti re post-1945 Welfare state
    ______________________
    You make a good point
    I have just read”Paris after the Liberation” and in the first post-Liberation election in France..,the largest numkber of vote/seats went to the Communist Party with 36%…the Socialists with 20% came next..and a spate of centre parties followed..the right was destroyed because many had sided with Vichy ands the Nazis

    De Gaulle had promised an all-party National Govt and he kept the promise. The CP wanted a left-gvernment as a prelude to power
    They got a swag of cabinet posts and the Dpt PM..and De Gaulle saw that only a left policy would arrest their rise…based on their wartime role in the Resistance and the heroic role of the Red Army in defeating Hitler

    So he got a Socialist PM and initiated a welfare state like that in Britain under Athlee’s Labour Govt and in a way
    This happened over much of Europe

    So the welfare state was a remedy against Communist advances
    in that post-war time

  115. William Bowe

    [I don’t want to be a party pooper, but is it likely that a poll taken over a long weekend would tend to skew to Labor?]

    No, because it was conducted on Thursday.

  116. poroti

    Hands up anyone surprised. ……….Nobody ? Good.

    [Jobs figures looking good for Coalition’s new lobbyists

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s insistence that Australia is ”open for business” is being embraced by lobbyists, with dozens of the biggest companies having signed up to Coalition-aligned influence peddlers already this year for representation in Canberra.

    The torrent of activity in the increasingly partisan lobbying industry has in turn sparked a mini jobs boom for former Howard government ministers, retired Coalition MPs and Liberal operatives.

    Nick Minchin, the Howard-era finance minister, has joined Alexander Downer at Bespoke Approach whose client list includes Wesfarmers, coal seam gas miner Santos and Chinese-owned coal miner Yancoal.

    Former treasurer Peter Costello co-owns Melbourne-based ECG Advisory Solutions with his one time political adviser David Gazard. ECG has Westpac, Transurban and detention centre operators Serco on its books]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jobs-figures-looking-good-for-coalitions-new-lobbyists-20140126-31gvg.html#ixzz2raefQgR3

  117. Bugler

    Sorry, taken the dogs outside, Stephen Fry came on the tele and my sister was telling me in depth about how I should watch Frozen

    GG,

    Generally agree. However, straying into opinion territory, I think most offenders can be rehabilitated but the public and the politicians lack the stomach and concentration to implement something effective (One could cynically argue that crime is at the perfect levels to be politically convenient, low enough that it doesn’t cause so much trouble but high enough to make it an issue for people to pretend to do something about it).

    Confessions,

    I am generally opposed to the sort of “blunt instrument” approaches, on principal and because of lack of evidence. I can be convinced if the evidence is there. However, as with most things, the heavy handed political solution isn’t usually the best.

  118. Rex Douglas

    One would assume SH-Y will finally challenge for a leadership position in the Greens Party in the near future ?

  119. citizen

    There have been very few Newspolls published since the election.

    From the Newspoll site: “Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings”

    [10/12/13
    26/11/13
    12/11/13
    29/10/13]

    http://www.newspoll.com.au/opinion-polls-2/opinion-polls-2/

  120. AussieAchmed

    Work for the Dole….maintenance, repairs, gardening at aged care places.

    Who says they have the skills?

    And what will the private owner pay to have this cheap labour?

    Which Liberal MP’s own an aged care facility?

  121. Bugler

    For those on the “politics is everything” brigade, I also think this is politically unsound suggestion by Vic Labor as it’s an issue that the Liberals have an upper hand

    Fran @113,

    Agree totally 🙂 .

  122. Tom the first and best

    34

    I had mentioned economic policy change, just not that particular effect by name.

    Thee has been a little to much emphasis on inflation control because of the oil shock stagflation.

  123. Yesiree Bob

    Fran Barlow@113

    YB


    How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?


    About ten minutes after they discover someone they can live with who is neither Abbott nor Turnbull.

    Which begs another question, why the hatred of Turnbull amongst the Tories ?
    Turnbull is seemingly popular amongst the masses, why not swallow their pride if it leads to some sort of sustained electoral success ?

  124. prettyone

    ” Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.

    ALPs lead should be greater.”

    Hi Sean

    Don’t get downhearted about the 2pp: it’s to be expected, like I said before we’re in the bottom
    of the mining downswing, the $AUD is unstable and worryingly USA and China economies are troubling.
    (and we can’t get of those damn carton and mining taxes because the ALP/Greens are obstructive on purpose).

    Sean, Tony Abbott is now a popular PM. He’s respected and trusted. This is all good and very important.
    Mr Shorten is not cutting through.

    Remember, 2014 will be ups and downs but 2015/2016 we’re set and will have a conservative government
    for a number of terms.

    Don’t fret, Sean.

  125. Kevin Bonham

    Rex Douglas@101

    Diogenes #93

    Logically, a good approval rating would increase the PV/2PP.

    Not reliably. The relationship between Opposition Leader ratings and voting intention exists but it is weak. Tends to be drowned out by other forces a lot of the time.

  126. Tom the first and best

    92

    The ALP are not proposing increased maximum sentences. They are proposing a new offence of “assault causing death” (or thereabouts) with the same maximum sentence (level 3 imprisonment (20 years)) as manslaughter.

  127. confessions

    [However, as with most things, the heavy handed political solution isn’t usually the best.]

    Hell yeah. Can’t disagree with you on that.

  128. Acerbic Conehead

    GG.

    [(Dennis Shanahan) was being transferred to the astrology section of News. But all the wizards and withches wouldn’t have him because he gave the prediction industry a bad name.]

    LOL,

    Like this turkey:

    http://scenecreek.com/features/good-scenes-come-to-those-who-wait/attachment/gilderoy-lockhart-harry-potter/

  129. victoria

    By John Menadue
    Posted 8 hours 31 minutes ago

    The appointment of a former military opponent of Indonesia as the Queen’s representative in Australia would not help improve the fractured bilateral relationship, writes John Menadue.

    Could we do more to offend the Indonesians? Yes, I think we could, by appointing, as has been suggested, Peter Cosgrove as our next governor general.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/menadue-is-another-indonesia-faux-pas-imminent/5220544

  130. deblonay

    Re Jakarta Newspapers
    _______________
    If you want to muddy further Abbott Indonesian waters you might try as I have started to do…write to either of the English language newspapers there and state a few home truth to Indonesians readers

    Like the way in which an islamophobe like Bernardi was until recently Abbott’s Parlt Secretary…or the similar stuff in Websites like “Menzies House” which is always running an anti-islamic rant
    They will be shocked to know I suspect

    These papers publish letters and may even take articles from our local press…..Menzies House will shock them
    None will make Abbott more loved there

    I also have a grand-daughter who is a brilliant Indonesian language scholar and has completed Year 12(after 9 years since Gr 3) and will do further Uni studies on the language
    She is helping translate stuff for me to lob into the Indonesian press
    Have a go and see

    Daily Jakarta papers… The Jakarta Post .com.
    ………………………The Jakarta Globe.com

  131. Kevin Bonham

    Yesiree Bob@104

    On the Polls, how usual is it for a first term Government to have such poor polling so quickly into said first term ?

    At federal level it has never happened before. That said we only have early-term polling for six previous first-term governments.

  132. Yesiree Bob

    Pretty person

    [and we can’t get of those damn carton and mining taxes because the ALP/Greens are obstructive on purpose).]

    Why shouldn’t these, very large companies, pay for the pollution they produce and environmental destruction that they wreck ?
    Moreover, why shouldn’t they pay for our resources that they, at the moment, exploit for their profit, at our expense.
    It’s not their resources, ITS OURS !!!!.

  133. AussieAchmed

    Abbott continues to parade his stupidity on the world stage…what an embarrassment he is, he is so stupid he believes the international community will believe his lies

    Abbott’s speech confirmed the nagging suspicions many have had since he assumed the prime ministership, following one of the most manipulated media campaigns in any democracy in living memory.

    It repeated all the trite slogans that worked in Western Sydney:

    “You can’t spend what you haven’t got.”

    “Markets are the proven answer to the problem of scarcity.”

    “No country has ever taxed or subsidised its way to prosperity.”

    Two stupidities.

    First, it was precisely that extensive rapid spending through the GFC which saw Australia rise from 10th-ranked economy in 2007 to the world’s top ranking by 2012, a reality all those present with an awareness of the G20 economies would have known.

    Secondly, attacks on domestic opponents are never acceptable abroad.

    In New York last October, Abbott was roundly condemned for a political attack on Kevin Rudd.

    American Academic Clinton Fernandes said he created an image of

    “… coarseness, amateurishness and viciousness.”

    Political scientist Norman Ornstein surmised:

    “Perhaps you can chalk it up to a rookie mistake. But it is a pretty big one.”

    Clearly, Abbott has learned nothing from that humiliation three months ago.

    Abbott then continued to spruik domestic politics — the commission of audit, paid parental leave, cutting the numbers of pensioners, and infrastructure, especially roads:

    “… because time spent in traffic jams is time lost from work and family.”

    He concluded with a final hypocrisy — following his attack on Labor for spending so much on infrastructure during the GFC.

    He gobsmacked anyone still listening with this:

    “Then, there’s the worldwide ‘infrastructure deficit’, with the OECD estimating that over 50 trillion dollars in infrastructure investment is needed by 2030.”

  134. Yesiree Bob

    [Tony Abbott is now a popular PM. He’s respected and trusted]

    HA HA HA HA HA HA Jeepers, don’t you just love satire from people that don’t even realise that they are being satirical ?

  135. Bugler

    Tom,

    I was probably too broad in my original explanation, yes (hence the linking, so people can keep me and my opinions in check). I can’t see that it detracts from my point, though.

  136. prettyone

    Also Sean

    I note conservatives are having kittens about the add-on to the Constitution regarding acknowledging the original inhabitants.
    Gee – where’s the loyalty?!!

    It’s a good thing, as it recognises our heritages in every sense.
    When people say it won’t help the disadvantage Aboriginals (still!) suffer – that’s true, but this is about
    a bringing together. Mr Rudd’s apology was excellent and beautiful, and altering the Constitutional is just
    an administrative action. Trust in Tony Abbott, all will be good.

  137. Steve777

    YB @123: Which begs another question, why the hatred of Turnbull amongst the Tories

    Because Malolm Turnbull is a (small ‘l’) liberal or the closest approach to one in a party of the hard right. He also believes we should be doing something about climate change. He is still as far as I know a republican. He has as much chance of leading the ‘Liberal’ party in the future as I have.

  138. citizen

    Deblonay

    [I also have a grand-daughter who is a brilliant Indonesian language scholar and has completed Year 12(after 9 years since Gr 3) and will do further Uni studies on the language
    She is helping translate stuff for me to lob into the Indonesian press]

    You probably already know about this, but Wikipedia has an article listing a host of Indonesian newspapers published in Indonesian, English and other languages.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_Indonesia

  139. Jackol

    I could have sworn I read “ShowsOn” instead of “prettyone”.

  140. Greensborough Growler

    The Libs might hate Turnbull. They might distrust his social policies. They may even despise his positions on climate change and homosexual marriage.

    However, if Abbott’s leadership becomes terminal, they will embrace him with open arms. Never ever get between the Libs and their White Ministerial Cars.

  141. psyclaw

    Diogenes #88

    “Disabilities are medical conditions which may fluctuate.

    However most medical conditions are disabilities.”

    Both these statements are incorrect ……. I suggest you test both statements with a colleague who actually has knowledge of disabilities.

    Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition ….. It neither arises “medically” nor requires “medical” treatment. Similarly loss of an arm in a workplace chain saw accident creates a disability, which although it may need acute medical treatment in the immediate term, is not in the long term a matter of medicine (my father’s brother, a war amputee needed no medical treatment vis a vis his leg, for the next 55 years of his life.)

    Conversely, regarding your second sentence, I suggest that you refer your next appendectomy patient to the NDIS, or your next cholecystectomy patient. Good luck with that.

  142. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Spoke to an elderly bluerinse lib diehard on the north shore this afternoon and she was super unimpressed with Tone. Scoffed at the notion that naval boats accidentally went into Indonesian waters. I doubled down by mentioning Christopher Pine and got a scowl. Tone is shoring up his bogan base and losing everybody else. No way to win an election.
    The question is not whether present polling means anything. The question is whether Tone and his motley crew can lift their act. There are absolutely no signs they can, which means they are odds on to be onetermers.

  143. confessions

    [I could have sworn I read “ShowsOn” instead of “prettyone”.]

    No liberally interspersed ‘MOFO’ among the sentences.

  144. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    GG – I agree. But I really doubt Turnbull would be much of a saviour. He would just expose the divisions and cynicism of his party.

  145. Greensborough Growler

    So f ucking what?

  146. zoidlord

    @prettyone/136

    You are complete idiot to trust a Coalition Party PM, let alone any other PM.

    Everyone remembers the hatred that Howard bring in when he was watering down the entitlement act’s.

    Abbott is favored by Howard himself.

  147. Yesiree Bob

    Anyhoo, don’t blame me, I voted Labor

  148. AussieAchmed

    prettyone – writing notes to self (Sean)

  149. zoidlord

    @GG/140

    Which are now bulletproof BMW’s.

  150. rossmcg

    Back in my previous life I worked in a fairly sporting office and we would run a sweep on just about anything.
    Two bucks in and pick the winner and margin sort of stuff.
    Perhaps we could have one here, without the two bucks. Who will be the first press gallery hack to write a leadership yarn this year and will it be Labor or Tory?

  151. Diogenes

    psyclaw

    [

    However most medical conditions are disabilities.]

    I agree this statement is incorrect. I meant to say most medical conditions don’t cause disabilities.

    [Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition ….. It neither arises “medically” nor requires “medical” treatment. Similarly loss of an arm in a workplace chain saw accident creates a disability, which although it may need acute medical treatment in the immediate term, is not in the long term a matter of medicine]

    There is no such thing as “arises medically”. And just because something is a medical diagnosis, it doesn’t follow that it requires medical treatment. Most medical diseases don’t require treatment.

  152. confessions

    rossmcg:

    Pretty sure we’ve already seen a Labor leadershit story appear this year. Was it the other day? I can’t remember who wrote it.

  153. Yesiree Bob

    RossMCG, it will be Michelle Gratton, and her story will be on Abbotts arsing.

  154. Diogenes

    [Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition ]

    Yes it is. It has an ICD 10, DSM V and WHO medical diagnosis code.

  155. Jackol

    Wasn’t Sheehan spruiking Porter earlier? Not quite leadershit, but in the context of recent history pretty darn close.

  156. Yesiree Bob

    Diogenes@154


    Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition


    Yes it is. It has an ICD 10, DSM V and WHO medical diagnosis code.

    Which, for the lay person mean ?

  157. Tom the first and best

    156

    It has official boxes to tick to diagnose it officially.

  158. confessions

    [Which, for the lay person mean ?]

    It’s based on rigorous assessment.

  159. Asha Leu

    Er, Prettyone, that’s not Sean you’re replying to, its Rex Douglas. A Labor supporter. Sean’s still banned, as far as I know.

    I kind of miss Sean, to be honest. I was enjoying watching him gradually go insane as the Libs plunged in the polls. Just think of all the hilarious apoplectic rants we’re missing right now.