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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 27, 2014

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor's favour, and Morgan records little change.

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UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2159 comments

2,159 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

  1. absolutetwaddle

    Psephos

    I am well aware of the pernicious influence of Stalinism on the Republican side but believe there was a brief window where it was possible merely to defend the republic without being used as a pawn by the Comintern.

    But yes, near the end it took on all the characteristics of a Hegelian tragedy.

  2. Psephos

    [I am well aware of the pernicious influence of Stalinism on the Republican side but believe there was a brief window where it was possible merely to defend the republic without being used as a pawn by the Comintern. ]

    The key text here, as I’m sure you know, is Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia.”

  3. absolutetwaddle

    I haven’t read that since I was a teenager, it’s about time for a re-read.

    Maybe after I finish The Spanish Holocaust, which this conversation inspired me to download.

  4. Otiose

    04:26:00 30/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

  5. frednk

    [Unitary State
    Posted Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Just a few hours ago, the smh poll had 76% dissagreeing with what Abbott had to say about the ABC.

    Now it is 61% who agree with him.

    WHAT THE HELL WENT ON THERE.
    ]
    Write a program to vote, delete the cookie and vote again. It really is quite simple. Why any one would bother is the issue.

  6. bemused

    Psephos@2134


    these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them


    There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.

    Correct except for the names being on it.

    When last in Canberra, I deliberately sought out this monument and had a good look. I was disappointed that it did not list the names as I had known a Spanish Civil War veteran and wanted to see his name listed.

  7. ShowsOn

    LOL TURNBULL CALLS ABBOTT A MORON!