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ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor’s favour, and Morgan records little change.

UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

2159
  • 351
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    Meanwhile Bill Shorten has travelled to Europe on his firat official visit

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shorten-off-to-europe-on-first-official-visit-20140127-31j5v.html

  • 352
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Wish that was Melbourne’s max. We are expecting 39 in the city and 40 in the suburbs today.

  • 353
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    Why is the dept trying to keep some stuff secret? Or is that by the command of the non-education minister?

    But the department has returned to the web much less than was there before. It has published only the 286-page final report requested by Fairfax. The issues paper. The previously-published commissioned studies and submissions remain hidden.

    And the department has taken steps to distance itself from the report. It has included a disclaimer noting that it was commissioned by the previous government and provided posted "for historical purposes only".

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gonski-school-funding-report-back-online-20140128-31jfr.html#ixzz2rdgx6dPd

  • 354
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    Heatwave forecast for the next 4 days:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/

  • 355
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    Guardian has more unbiased headline

    @GuardianAus: Union officials ‘helping crime-linked building companies win contracts’ http://t.co/CaergrJOIR

  • 356
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    confessions

    I know. I long for winter. :(

  • 357
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Unitary State@299

    bemused @293

    Not at all bro, I am just here explaining visions I draw in the back of my head about what our future should be like

    Are the visions accompanied by voices?

  • 358
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Drought is threatening to take hold in the Yass region, with farmers already reporting feed is scarce because of late frosts last year.
    Third-generation farmers Graham and Neil Privett are storing as much feed as possible on Glenleigh, their 950-hectare grazing property near Yass, in case substantial rain does not fall in autumn, leaving them facing a grim winter.

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/yass-farmers-face-feed-crisis-due-to-late-frosts-lack-of-rain-20140127-31j5a.html#ixzz2rdl9uxW3

  • 359
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    SHY has been visiting Christmas Island Detention Centre. Her report here. A rare lifting of secrecy veil so will be hard to contradict her view.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christmas-island-detainees-vulnerable-senator-hansonyoung-20140127-31iy1.html

  • 360
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    Take the piss …. Never Victoria.

  • 361
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Australia’s mining construction boom has well and truly peaked – and it is about to become a “notable problem” for the economy, a report says.
    Deloitte Access Economics has just published its quarterly Business Outlook, a comprehensive and well-respected report on the state of the Australian economy.
    It shows Australian economic activity will grow at a slower pace than usual for the next two years, while the unemployment rate will creep higher.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/report-mining-boom-peak-spells-danger-for-the-economy-but-its-not-all-bad-news-20140128-31j8l.html#ixzz2rdmRQba1

  • 362
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    ESJ

    Surely you jest. :D

  • 363
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    I’ve always been as the Germans say a realo rather than a fundi Victoria.

  • 364
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Victoria #361
    And yet there is this report in West Australian

    Chinese demand for the Pilbara’s premium-grade iron ore looks set to strengthen on the back of tougher air pollution standards imposed by Beijing.

    The country’s smog crisis, which has sparked a community backlash and forced official action, is likely to see steel, cement and electricity producers pressured to source purer raw materials to meet emission standards, Reuters has reported. The news agency has quoted trade officials predicting that new air pollution standards could squeeze out iron ore suppliers from Iran, Mexico and Vietnam.

    Iranian ore contains up to 1.5 per cent sulphur, which contributes to smog. Sulphur levels in Indonesian and Mexican ore can reach 2 per cent, compared with 0.05 per cent in ore from Pilbara powerhouses Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, and Brazil’s Vale.

    Australia’s market share rose 4 percentage points to account for 51.2 per cent of China’s total imports in 2013. Brazilian operators claimed a 19 per cent share.

  • 365
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    AA

    Hmmm, who to believe

  • 366
    1934pc
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    “”Turnbull is seemingly popular amongst the masses,”"

    His attitude regarding the NBN shows he is an out and out IDIOT!.

  • 367
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    1934pc

    Saw promo for Womens weekly on commercial tv last night. Apparently Turnbull writes a love letter to Lucy his wife for valentines day.

  • 368
    liyana
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Well big congratulations to the CFMEU for leaving the Door open for the destruction of their members wages and conditions by the LNP. How could they be so stupid?

    Of course there will be no repercussions for developers or companies who are also involved….

  • 369
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    Victoria
    When I saw the news this morning I thought of your warning re unions last week.
    Hope that things arn’t too traumatic for you and your family this week

  • 370
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    AA

    Hmmm, who to believe
    ==================================

    Contradicting stories in the media have become the norm.

    It’s the same with property and things like the building industry and retail market.

    One article of doom and gloom, the other full of positives.

    And that just muddies the debate.

  • 371
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Why would anyone see Cosgrove as not a political appointment, it is a political appointment. What do we know about him except he joined the army and was ok at it?

    I have heard him speak and wasn’t at all impressed, can’t remember if I had a strong view or a on balance view he was a lib then.

  • 372
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    Oh Dear. FTA going to lose more youth viewers.

    @channeltennews: TEN’s National weekend bulletin has a brand new face as Mike Munro joins the network on February 9! http://t.co/lD9nGLW3kV

  • 373
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    mari

    Appreciate your sentiments. As a family we are doing our best under the circumstances

    I felt it was in the interests of bludgers to know what was on its way re the union corruption investigation

  • 374
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Edwina StJohn@363

    I’ve always been as the Germans say a realo rather than a fundi Victoria.

    Talking about Germans – do as they say, but not the same for them ?

    Germany's Bundesbank said on Monday that countries about to go bankrupt should draw on the private wealth of their citizens through a one-off capital levy before asking other states for help.

    The Bundesbank's tough stance comes after years of euro zone crisis that saw five government bailouts. There have also bond market interventions by the European Central Bank in, for example, Italy where households' average net wealth is higher than in Germany.

    "(A capital levy) corresponds to the principle of national responsibility, according to which tax payers are responsible for their government's obligations before solidarity of other states is required," the Bundesbank said in its monthly report.

    ...In Germany, however, the Bundesbank said it would not support an implementation of a recurrent wealth tax, saying it would harm growth.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-27/bundesbanks-stunner-broke-eurozone-nations-first-bail-your-rich-citizens

  • 375
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    The Guardian headline has had its effect. Mention of building firms now part of their headline news.

  • 376
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    Sorry redoing post 375.

    The Guardian headline has had its effect on News 24. Mention of building firms now part of their headline news.

  • 377
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Interesting to see the partisan groupings on the ReachTEL poll’s approval ratings.

    Coalition voters are really loving Abbott right now. It’s almost as if they’re still in honeymoon mode. Everyone else is the complete opposite

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-23january2014

    Wasn’t mentioned last night but there was a question on reviewing the welfare system which had: Yes 59.2, No 16.9

  • 378
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Of course the building companies are part of fhe corruption. How else do the union reps get paid for favours. Workers ie union members have nothing to offer union officials other than their actual labour.

  • 379
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    Which is why I'm all for government support of relationship counselling. But don't hand out vouchers for use with educators such as Mrs Andrews - make it Medicare claimable.

    Relationships get diseased. Think of counselling as preventative medicine.

    Sigh. We put things on Medicare when there’s a provable benefit, not just because someone thinks something worked for them.

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/relationship-counselling-is-welfare-and-it-works-20140127-31iuk.html#ixzz2rdxAy7V8

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/relationship-counselling-is-welfare-and-it-works-20140127-31iuk.html#ixzz2rdvLFgKV

  • 380
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    vic
    As always – follow the money!

  • 381
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    spur

    With the Lib vote declining, the pool of identifying ‘Liberal voters’ is getting smaller proportionally. You’d expect someone who’s switched their voting intention to Labor because they didn’t like Abbott to bouy the dissatisfaction rating in that demographic. Similarly, you’d expect those remaining Liberal voters to be those who were more enthusiastic about Abbott to begin with.

  • 382
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Opening address at the Royal Commission Caser No 5 – Salvation Army.
    http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/newsroom/webcasts/

  • 383
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    BK

    Yep following the money is where it is at.

    To illustrate the tenuous connections within groups. For those who are unaware of the Grollo Constructions connections. It was surprising to me that it took so many years for this to be reported

    ONE of Melbourne's more unusual family trees can be revealed: tycoon Daniel Grollo and bikie family patriarch Joe Pegoraro became step-brothers when their clans were joined at a Valentine's Day 2004 wedding.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/grollo-family-link-to-bikie-brothers-daniel-and-ben-pegoraro/story-fni0fee2-1226769977175

  • 384
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Z

    Sigh. We put things on Medicare when there’s a provable benefit, not just because someone thinks something worked for them.

    There is good evidence the counselling.

    There are heaps of things on Medicare there is no evidence of a provable benefit.

  • 385
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    Further to my post @ 382 I love watching Justice Peter McClellan at work at the Royal Commission. He is so measured, smooth, incisive and effective.

  • 386
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Drat, the first part of my post at 389 went missing. Can’t be bothered rewriting it, but the gist was that the author thinks we’re against the idea of funding marriage counselling because it came from Abbott, whilst admitting that there’s no evidence that it works at all.

    But it worked for her, so it should be funded.

    Seriously bad basis for public policy.

  • 387
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    While schemes such as Work For the Dole may appear attractive there is little evidence that picking up garbage or painting rocks in a public park has a real impact on long-term unemployment numbers.

    To the contrary, a 2004 study by Jeff Borland and Yi-Ping Tseng from the University of Melbourne’s Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research found the opposite to be the case.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-the-abbott-governments-populist-work-for-dole-scheme-just-wont-serve/story-fnihsr9v-1226811494568

  • 388
    Unitary State
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    Are we expecting a newspoll in a weeks time?

  • 389
    markjs
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    Statement from the CFMEU …probably wont get much coverage in the Old Media as not sensational enough:

    http://www.cfmeu.asn.au/news/statement-from-national-secretary-dave-noonan

  • 390
    Assantdj
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    IMHO the last question on the poll is useless. People wanting disability reined in would answer yes as would people wanting increased taxes for people retired with massive superannuation packages. Watch the debate unfold because I believe the government and the MSM will see the result as confirmation that people want to stop the welfare mentality.

  • 391
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    Unitary state

    No idea. Perhaos William may know

  • 392
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    Diog

    even the author of the piece promoting it (linked above) admits there isn’t.

  • 393
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    The opening address at the Royal Commission is harrowing in its detail of how the boys were treated.

  • 394
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    victoria

    A friend of mine worked for the Dept of Environment in Victoria when ‘work for the dole’ was last operational.

    They had spent a couple of years (and a lot of government money) perfecting a strain of eucalypts for a particular purpose. When the trees were ready to go, they were handed over to a Work for the Dole gang to plant.

    The planted trees died off very quickly. On examination, it was found the gang had been simply tearing off the tops of the trees and sticking them in the ground.

    If people resent the work they’re doing, they’ll do it badly.

  • 395
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    @ESJ/342

    How is the Governor General Office de-politicalized with the events that Abbott & Co created so far? With a Former Deference Chief ?

    Me thinks your another idiot (same level of that Sean).

  • 396
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    @Assantdj/390

    People are being fooled by the headlines MSM create, and the fear the Coalition Government created by aiming those DSP.

    The entire question about Welfare Reform is useless without job creation sector reform.

  • 397
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    “Climate and vaccine deniers are the same: beyond persuasion.”
    A great article from The Conversation gives Maurice Newman’s appointment some prominence.
    http://tinyurl.com/n6unk24

  • 398
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    Ignorance and lack of supervision. What a bloody waste.

    There have been many example where a “tree planting scheme” has resulted in dead saplings inside those beaut green plastic shelters.

  • 399
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    AA and Vic,

    The stories of declining mining investment, and its employment and GDP effects, do not contradict the potential rise in demand for Pilbara premium iron ore. It is simply a case of a highly-automated extraction process, in which increases in production don’t have much of an effect on employment, and returns that go to the companies’ (largely foreign) owners.

    It does beg the question: since it is our dirt, why do we sell it so cheap?

  • 400
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    The NSW allegations can be referred to ICAC in relation to CFMEU

    No need for special Royal Commission there.

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