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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 30, 2014

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New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.

ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2468 comments

2,468 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

  1. William @ 2411
    It’d be nice to have more information. Who the respondents support and a comparison with a similar poll while Labor were in power, for example.

    The other day the idea was floated that the ABC is somewhat cowardly because it is bashed by both sides of politics, whereas it’s always been my impression that the majority of attacks comes from the conservative and right.

    On the other hand, perhaps the majority comes from the supporters of whoever is in power at the time and it’s incorrect to assume that a belief that it’s biased one way correlates (inversely) with being a strong supporter the other way.

  2. See no reason for question on Bryce at all,consider result totally misogynist

    Perhaps asked as Shortens Motherinlaw,but still outtreogous

  3. It’s more important what powers a president has than how they get elected/appointed. There are some risks in having a popularly elected president with too many powers.

    Personally I think they should be appointed through a majority vote in the lower house.

  4. Every year the ABC commissions Newspoll to conduct an “appreciation survey”, invariably finding satisfaction with it to be extremely high. It has however been trending gently downwards on “balanced and even-handed when reporting news” in the last few years, from 83% positive to 78%, prompting a predictable line of bullshit from The Oz. Personally though, I suspect the decline came from Labor supporters, rather than those who buy The Oz’s line on the matter. In short, the Newspoll appreciation survey is wanting for any data on the partisanship of respondents, which would make it a lot more illuminating.

    As for the ReachTEL figures, they come after a week where Tony Abbott has primed Coalition supporters to respond negatively to a question about ABC bias, and in doing so primed Labor supporters who might have accused the ABC of Liberal bias a year ago to take a more defensive view of it.

  5. Same powers as the current GG. Ie no change except to the method of appointment; by election.
    As to possible removal; by 2/3 of a joint sitting of both houses.
    It is important that the govt of the day cannot simply remove a president if that govt fears the president may withdraw their commission & call fresh elections.

    Precedent?

    If Whitlam had got wind of what Kerr was planning he could have got in first & had HM remove Kerr. Then we would have had a real constitutional crisis.
    The president’s only real constitutional duty should be to withdraw a commission & require fresh elections( a double dissolution) if there is deadlock between HOR & senate. If the PM has the power to remove a president then why have one at all?

  6. Unitary State

    Phil Cleary was a household name in the Coburg area as he was the captain of the local VFA side.

    Not surprised he won that by-election, during the early 1990s the ALP in Victoria were in similar condition to the current NSW ALP.

  7. The joy of a filthy, brutal, disgusting but successful ‘turn the boats back’ event I think has its foundation in the imagination of Israel and hatred of Palestinians. One can hardly criticise one but not the methods of the other.

    So a hardline heartless even murderous outlook is required for these types of things to avoid charge of hypocrisy when we see and support Israel’s holocaust like thinking toward Palestine.

  8. To elaborate I understand from your comment you view Israel in much the same way every quasi-Trotskyist groupuscule in Australia does, the part that confused me was how this connects to the asylum seeker debate here. It’s such a vast and unexplained disconnect it’s almost a non sequitur.

  9. [Psephos
    Posted Saturday, February 1, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Furthermore, this is a documented example of successfully turning back unauthorised boat arrivals, despite the general view here that it’s impossible. So that is a big win for Morrison.
    ]

    Three deaths.
    1/2 million dollar boat.
    Incursion into Indonesian waters.

    You Psephos are one crazy mixed up person.