tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

ReachTEL plus Essential plus Morgan equals no change at all in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.

ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.

2468
  • 1401
    confessions
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    poroti:

    They had to let a 2.6m shark go this morning.

  • 1402
    citizen
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    Perhaps this shark catching thing is a cover for a secret “protect our borders” project to intercept enemy midget submarines.

  • 1403
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    It was able to prove it was a real-estate shark, and therefore a Liberal voter.

  • 1404
    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    Oi Oi Oi . For Strayans that go “Yawn” it means the Oz team overtake India and are No.1 ranked one day team in the world.

    Black Caps 4 India 0

    Tales of New Zealand cricketing triumph tend to be rare. The 4-0 one-day international series victory over world champions India is the best in the sport's shorter forms since the 3-0 Chappell-Hadlee trophy defeat of then-world champions Australia in February 2007.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11194947

  • 1405
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    Do we have any reliable figures on boat arrivals since the election, and as compared with the same period last year?

  • 1406
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    Yes another tiger shark apparently. Last fatal tiger shark attack in metro waters 70 something years ago i believe

  • 1407
    Henry
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    Just had to have a dig at the aussies there didn’t they poroti…

  • 1408
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    William is it time for me to leave ? Just say it I won’t be hurt.

  • 1409
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    Do we have any reliable figures on boat arrivals since the election, and as compared with the same period last year?

    No reliable figures, Morrison could pop up in a couple of months and say, actually I had to mislead you for operational reasons, 30 boats have arrived. We just don’t know.

  • 1410
    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    It was able to prove it was a real-estate shark, and therefore a Liberal voter.

    Years ago in W.A. a high profile lawyer was on his usual early morning paddle on his surf ski off Cottesloe beach. A very large White Pointer attacked and virtually bit it in two. He survived fully intact. Dean Alston in The West Australian had a real :lol: cartoon on the incident. The last panel had the answer as to why the shark had not harmed him as being “Professional courtesy” .

  • 1411
    Tricot
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    Oh, please spare me the hypocrisy of the compassionate conservative….

    “Keeping the beach safe for kids……”

    The credentials of conservatives when it comes to do with any matters pertaining to the environment is of a low order in general.

    Like our esteemed host, I am not moved much one way or the other by the shark cull thing in Perth. Two different species of sharks hooked today and both under the ‘statutory’ 3 metres and let go.

    All this is a political fix for a political problem and the weighing in by a conservative mouthpiece here pretending to be a bleeding heart is about as phoney as it comes.

  • 1412
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Speaking of sharks, I see Don Farrell tried to jump the shark today. Dio, help please, the man badly need a new neurologist.

  • 1413
    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Henry

    Never let a chance go by :)

  • 1414
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    Socrates,
    Farrell needs a retirement slip.

  • 1415
    victoria
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    Lib MP makes east-west link gaffe
    Napthine government embarrassed by blunder in which MP inadvertently took part in event.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-liberal-mp-makes-eastwest-link-gaffe-20140131-31sde.html

  • 1416
    pom
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

    Braking NEWS………….
    News LTD: Study shows that transporting caught sharks North of CI will deter AS. Abbott implements the report and adds it will save money

  • 1417
    Henry
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

    Fair cop poroti.
    NZ is my favourite place to visit, love the joint.
    Poms being smacked in the T20 and we can all agree that’s a good thing.
    Pommy bastards.

  • 1418
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Let us hope for a world record in the cricket tonight, to banish Farrell from the front page of the Advertiser tomorrow morning.

  • 1419
    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Henry

    Kiwis smashing India. Australia smashing England. Antipodean happy days :)

  • 1420
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d4O1A-mmBWw

    I had to :)

  • 1421
    citizen
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    The last panel had the answer as to why the shark had not harmed him as being “Professional courtesy”.

    That’s about as corny as the story of Kerry Packer and Clive Palmer out sailing on one of their super yachts. There’s a terrible storm and both men are flung into the sea without life jackets.

    “Can you float alone?” asks Clive.

    “This is no time to talk business” replies Kerry.

  • 1422
    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    cud chewer

    And you made me link these fine….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aMN3OJYz5k

  • 1423
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    Puff

    The SA voters gave him one at the last Senate election where, despite his awesome personal charisma, he was on a ticket that got a vote barely exceeding 20%.

    The problem is that he cannot accept the verdict of the people. If he was so desperate to cling to the power that is clearly his obsession, why not go for pre-selection in his home seat of Bragg, where his personal vote would surely make the difference. That way he really would have credibility as a vote winner.

  • 1424
    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    cud chewer

    You are also to blame for…

    Split Enz - Shark Attack

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teD1WIGtw5w

  • 1425
    Just Me
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    1398
    theintellectualbogan

    Sharks only eat people who go into the water. This suggests a fairly simple means of guaranteeing avoiding being attacked.

    Well, exactly.

    Don’t want to sound callous, but it is their home and has been for millions of years. So either stay out of it, or accept the well known risks of going for a paddle and don’t complain about any nasty toothy consequences.

    Same rules as crocs and waterways, and box jellyfish and seas during the wet season, across the north of Oz.

  • 1426
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    “They had to let a 2.6m shark go this morning.”

    The WA Liberals appear to be soft on youth crime.

  • 1427
    BK
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    It’s now official. Farrell is very much politically dead, buried and cremated.
    Vale Don.

  • 1428
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Don Farrell can take consolation in the fact this is all part of God’s plan.

  • 1429
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    The SA voters gave him one at the last Senate election where, despite his awesome personal charisma, he was on a ticket that got a vote barely exceeding 20%.

    That’s a very serious reflection on Penny Wong, who was at the head of the ticket. (Really some of you people need to grow up.)

  • 1430
    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Just Me

    Yep. It is very simple. Assume every water body has a croc in it. Having done so any actions you take are on your own head.

  • 1431
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    BK

    “It’s now official. Farrell is very much politically dead, buried and cremated.
    Vale Don.”

    Don’t talk too soon, Don’s a big believer in resurrection.

  • 1432
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    Fine then…

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CgnlSJRBTRo

  • 1433
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    BK

    Yes, a bit like one of those Mongol Khans. Trouble is, they tended to have their servants and close followers killed and buried with them, just as Don has done with Labor’s SA State government.

    At least all his factional supporters in Ministerial offices can look forward to taking great opportunities in the private sector after the election. Given their CVs, it should be easy.

    In fact, those factional types would be better off spending their time polishing their CVs, rather than continuing to justify this madness.

  • 1434
    imacca
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    The last panel had the answer as to why the shark had not harmed him as being “Professional courtesy” .

    :) poroti, i remember that one. It happened very close to where i have to snorkel quite often to collect stuff for work. i used a shark shield for a while after that, but in the shallows the horrid thing makes my old amalgam fillings ache. :)

    The below was inked a page or so ago:

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seeker-transferred-to-christmas-island-ending-six-week-period-without-any-arrivals-20140131-31sev.html#ixzz2rxlK3cG5

    And it does rather beg the question of where this person came from. :( I would hope that some of the media will have the backbone to question this.

  • 1435
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    The RBA’s reserve fund has had a big boost from the falling Aussie dollar and a more settled US economy. Joe Hockey’s ill-conceived $8.8 billion handout is looking sillier by the day, Glenn Dyer and Bernard Keane write.

    To raise the one-off $8.8 billion payment — Hockey has yet to produce legislation authorising the raising and the payment of the capital into the bank — the government will boost its debt by the same amount, instead of adding to the bank’s fund out of tax revenues over a period of years, which would have been a smarter and cheaper way of doing it. The extra debt could cost taxpayers over $400 million a year in extra interest costs.

    Then again, the real purpose of the extra $8.8 billion was to paint the former ALP government in the worst possible light, an attempt that continued with the mid-year economic statement in mid-December.

  • 1436
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    Don Farrell can take consolation in the fact this is all part of God’s plan.

    God’s views are often very closely aligned to those of his followers.

  • 1437
    Just Me
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Yes, it is simple. But also amazing how many people think those immutable rules don’t apply to them.

  • 1438
    Just Me
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    God’s views are often very closely aligned to those of his followers.

    And highly amusing to the rest of us when they are not. :D

  • 1439
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    AT

    Liberals soft on youth crime … That is a classic

  • 1440
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    And just show and expose the lies of Abbott, Hockey and the Liberals in general;

    RBA data shows its holdings of foreign currencies were worth $47.978 billion at the end of December, up $6 billion from the end of June 2013. The bank’s gold holdings were valued at $3.447 billion, up from $3.3 billion at June 30. Since the end of last year, the total value of those holdings of foreign exchange, gold, special drawing rights and the reserve position in the IMF has risen even further to more than $60 billion as at January 22, from $59.4 billion at the end of December and $51.8 billion at the end of June 2013.
    ————————-
    Proof that Labor did not raid the RBA forcing Hocky to increase debt by giving the RBA $8.8 billion.

    That $400 million a year in interest could have saved Holden, SPC and seen the need to attack the disabled as unnecessary.

    These Liberals couldn’t manage a manage a brothel for Union Officals and make a profit

  • 1441
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    Just me

    Part of me is laughing about Farrell, but the trouble is the other part of me that is conscious about what it means for the election in six weeks is not laughing. I have friends in the SA public service. The truth is it needs reform, especially in bloated admin areas and health and education generally. But now that reform will be done with a blowtorch by a Liberal government that can cite debt ad the perfect excuse.

  • 1442
    Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    BW,

    Who exactly pays for the Productivity Commission?

    Remind me.

    Is it 100% subsidised by the government, aka, us taxpayers?

    How productive are they?

    Is that the same crowd who donate all their reports to Barnaby to use as toilet paper?

    If so, as Barnaby produces so much effluence, they are surely providing an invaluable public health service.

  • 1443
    meher baba
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    I’m astonished to see some on here still trying to blame Farrell for the farcical events of today.

    Yes, the preselection deal maybe wasn’t a great one. But there is no possible excuse for Weatherill’s outburst.

    Political advice 101 would say that there was only one conceivable form of words Weatherill should have used today: “the arrangement will need to be ratified by the party, and that’s by no means certain” (or WTTE) and, then, “if Don Is successful in being preselected, his ability and experience will make him an excellent addition to my team”.

    This would have left him free to continue to try to stop it behind closed doors.

    The way Weatherill behaved today was ill-disciplined nonsense. Don’t try to pretend anything else.

  • 1444
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    @Ross/1439

    Considering that youth crime is up in QLD, I wouldn’t laugh at that… :S

  • 1445
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    Night all. Hopefully Australia chasing down 130 can console me.

  • 1446
    Just Me
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    Part of me is laughing about Farrell, but the trouble is the other part of me that is conscious about what it means for the election in six weeks is not laughing.

    Yes, it is a mixed bag. He is out, but at a cost.

  • 1447
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    meher baba

    “Political advice 101 would say that there was only one conceivable form of words Weatherill should have used today: “the arrangement will need to be ratified by the party, and that’s by no means certain” (or WTTE) and, then, “if Don Is successful in being preselected, his ability and experience will make him an excellent addition to my team”.”

    I for one an am unimpressed with this slightly Orwellian use of the English language.

    Weatherill wasn’t impressed with the proposition put to him and said so in plain English (as opposed to Blairite “no one can be offended by anything I say” newspeak). Unusual in today’s political discourse yes, but a bad thing? Hardly.

  • 1448
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    “Closing Time”

    Closing time
    Open all the doors and let you out into the world
    Closing time
    Turn all of the lights on over every boy and every girl
    Closing time
    One last call for alcohol so finish your whiskey or beer
    Closing time
    You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here

    Chorus:

    I know who I want to take me home
    I know who I want to take me home
    I know who I want to take me home
    Take me home

    Closing time
    Time for you to go out to the places you will be from
    Closing time
    This room won’t be open till your brothers or your sisters come
    So gather up your jackets, move it to the exits
    I hope you have found a friend
    Closing time
    Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end

    Chorus:

    I know who I want to take me home
    I know who I want to take me home
    I know who I want to take me home
    Take me home

    Closing time
    Time for you to go out to the places you will be from

    Chorus:

    I know who I want to take me home
    I know who I want to take me home
    I know who I want to take me home
    Take me home

    Closing time
    Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end

  • 1449
    meher baba
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    It is also funny seeing all the fervent Gillard supporters on PB dumping on one of the two significant faction leaders who remained steadfastly loyal to Gillard to the end (the other being Conroy).

    Armchair lefties are a funny bunch !

  • 1450
    pedant
    Posted Friday, January 31, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    meher baba @ 1443: “if Don Is successful in being preselected, his ability and experience will make him an excellent addition to my team”.

    With great respect, have you gone out of your mind? I despair when I see apparently politically active people posting here who haven’t learnt the elementary fact that voters are sick and tired of being told obvious, transparent lies, known to be such by both the speaker and the audience.

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