tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

ReachTEL plus Essential plus Morgan equals no change at all in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.

ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.

2468
  • 101
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Zoomster

    My friend’s brother was doing some fencing on a property a few years ago. He was bitten on his back by a snake. He was unaware that this occurred until he collapsed. Luckily he is now okay, but the snake managed to bite through several layers of clothing.
    Perhaps you should seek medical attention?

  • 102
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    Oh, I’m loving this –

    http://ausflowers.com.au/Products/Single-Essences

    It looks like Tony might be better off supplying young couples with Boab essence –

    Boab clears negative emotional and mental family patterns that are passed on from generation to generation. Boab can access and clear those core patterns and all the related ensuing beliefs

    or some Bush Gardenia –

    For renewing passion and interest in relationships. It helps draw together those who are moving away from one another, busy in their own world (career, life, etc.). It is as if this Essence helps to turn the individual's head to reconnect to see what their partner is doing and feeling and to discover what is needed to bring them back together.

  • 103
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Clive Palmer had fhis to say on twitter yesterday.

    No surprise that @TonyAbbottMHR has been bashing @abcnews - he's just following orders from @rupertmurdoch tinyurl.com/nxkhr4h #auspol

    It is blatantly obvious what is going on re the ABC. Heck even cheerleader Katharine Murphy is onto Abbott

  • 104
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    victoria

    I’ve alerted the family in case I go even stranger (would anyone notice?) but at the moment I’m just feeling a little queasy, so I’m not too worried.

  • 105
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Abbott using the ABC rant as a distraction?

    Maybe someone has pointed out to him that company Boards are up to the armpits involved in the union corruption and just as likely to find themselves in as much trouble as the individual union officials when it comes to corruption and bribery.

    It’s not the union that is corrupt, it is the individual union officials.

  • 106
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    Have a look at the front page of the Oz today:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

    Definitely doing Rupe’s bidding.

  • 107
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    Well take care……..

  • 108
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Flower spiders aren’t poisonous to humans.

    I suspect your first impression was correct; there is a green caterpillar that is poisonous (though not deadly, so don’t panic) ;-)

  • 109
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    confessions

    It is so blatant as to be ridiculous

  • 110
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Abbott using the ABC rant as a distraction?

    Maybe someone has pointed out to him that company Boards are up to the armpits involved in the union corruption and just as likely to find themselves in as much trouble as the individual union officials when it comes to corruption and bribery.

    It’s not the union that is corrupt, it is the individual union officials.

    I understand the construction giants are onto a good thing and wouldn’t want anyone or anything messing up their playground.

  • 111
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    Sounds as if the spider orchid sends you on a transcendental journey!

    On the Museum website it says that flower spiders are not dangerous. However, I was once bitter by a fat brown one, on the palm of my hand, and I felt dizzy for a while, went indoors and fell asleep for an hour. No further complications except I am more wary when weeding in bushes.

    http://australianmuseum.net.au/Flower-Spiders

  • 112
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    Ttanya Plibersek on 24 now

  • 113
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    On twitter

    Liberal Craig Laundy, tells Tony to choose another channel! If you don't like what the ABC has to say, flick the remote! #goCraig

  • 114
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Actually, I’ve just had another thought.

    There is a species of jumping spider that is green. And I know some jumping spiders ARE poisonous.

    Let me double-check and get back to you.

    PS It’s not deadly either, so there is still no need to panic ;-)

  • 115
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    Btw Craig Laundy is the new member for Reid

  • 116
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    Plibersek:

    There is nothing more UnAustralian than sending jobs offshore

  • 117
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Maybe someone has pointed out to him that company Boards are up to the armpits

    Could be. On the from page of the GG is this headline for a Denis Shanana article.

    Tony Abbott resisting clamour for union royal commission

  • 118
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    Glad to see Tanya sticking up for the ABC. :-)

  • 119
    Just Me
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    Plibersek:

    There is nothing more UnAustralian than sending jobs offshore

    Good line. :)

  • 120
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    http://web.archive.org/web/20091027182945/http://www.geocities.com/brisbane_spiders/GreenJumpingSpiders.htm

    This says it was found around Brisbane, but I’ve seen them down in Adelaide as well, so I suspect it is found Australia-wide.

    Not toxic, but painful bite.

  • 121
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    Steven Grant haby

    Hockey said today that the parent company of Ardmona is Coca Cola Amatil. They made a profit of 200 plus million and therefore the govt should not be subsidizing Ardmona

    There is possibly a more sinister aspect to this. Coca Cola-Amatil is apparently not a direct subsidiary of the Coca Cola company. However it obviously has close links.

    Coca Cola came out recently acknowledging climate change is real and measures need to be taken (after drought in India caused problems in obtaining water and sugar). This would not please the Abbott government.

    Essentially, Abbott has just created another enemy. Coca Cola won’t be leaving Australia like GMH.

  • 122
    Just Me
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    103
    victoria

    Clive Palmer had fhis to say on twitter yesterday.

    No surprise that @TonyAbbottMHR has been bashing @abcnews - he's just following orders from @rupertmurdoch tinyurl.com/nxkhr4h #auspol

    Thank you, Clive.

  • 123
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    This report brings no surprises to bludgers, but the illogicality of cutting after school care and trade skills while retaining the PPL shows the sheer stupidity of the Libs’ policies.

    It makes perfect sense if you believe that women should be at home.

    Jackol

    If Abbott picks a fight with the ABC at the moment he’s likely to lose because the public trusts the ABC a lot more than it trusts Abbott.

    Labor made this mistake all the time – though not w.r.t. to picking fights with the ABC. Going on the offense from a weak position is double edged.

  • 124
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    “@GrogsGamut: Journalist asks Plibersek if the govt giving money to Cadbury shows they have a plan for jobs…”

  • 125
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    @MayneReport: Disgraceful to see some Murdoch outlets cheering Abbott’s attacks on the ABC rather than defending press freedom and accountability.

  • 126
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Thanks, Danny!

  • 127
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Another exclusive for the hard working reporters at the Australian … Just type up the government press release. Their counterparts at news corpse in the UK must be green with envy. They had the break the law to get a story.

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    Mayne agrees on tactics

    “@MayneReport: Absolutely bizarre for Abbott to launch on ABC straight after it gave him political gold with all this CFMEU bikies stuff. Why reboot boats?”

  • 129
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    Nancy Cato ‏@nancycato1 10m
    Watching Tanya Plibersek on TV is like turning on the aircon in a heat wave.

  • 130
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Interesting aspect of O Farrel Bill regarding one punch. It says “intoxicated” Does not specify alcohol. So it covers all drugs. Maybe even prescription.

  • 131
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Wow! Such insight! Such a nasty mind.

    Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 49s
    Cabinet Minister Kevin Andrews on the ABC 'what goes around comes around.'

  • 132
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: Cabinet Minister Kevin Andrews on the ABC ‘what goes around comes around.’”

  • 133
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Perhaps my info is correct and some of the Liberals are not wanting the union stuff to go much further cos it does implicate their own mates

  • 134
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    SCHOOL leavers will be paid up to $500 a week by taxpayers to pull out weeds and plant seedlings under an Abbott Government plan.
    The multimillion-dollar Green Army to help combat air and land quality will start from July with a workforce expanding to 15,000 by 2019.
    Designed with Gen Y in mind, participants will work six hours a day, five days a week, take morning and afternoon rests of at least 15 minutes and a lunch break of at least an hour.
    The Courier-Mail can reveal new details of the Green Army, which is open to 17-24 year olds, including school leavers, gap-year students and those on Newstart. Participants will be paid an allowance of between $10.14 and $16.45 an hour for 30 hours - which will be considered full time.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/taxpayers-to-fund-gen-ys-in-abbott-governments-national-green-army-project/story-fnii5v6w-1226813384088

  • 135
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Abbott’s attack on the ABC is just one more poorly thought out strategy in a series of poorly thought out strategies.

  • 136
    Steven Grant Haby
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Citizen – interesting report from CCA. I wonder if Abbott and his drones will have the intelligence to think outside the square.

    Just Me – Clive will be a nasty thorn in the Abbott rump if he keeps tweeting smackdowns like that!

  • 137
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Of course it is not just alcohol

  • 138
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    David Donovan ‏@davrosz 8m
    Been told senior ABC staff were told to "go easy" on the Coalition to curry favour as they were expected to win. How's that working out?

    Have to go out. What a morning!

  • 139
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    I guess after the green army finishes planting trees. They can be trained in the art of fighting bush fires…….

  • 140
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Lizzie

    Of course, it is dependent on the saplings growing and thriving in our climate

  • 141
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Sensible not to narrow it down. The $500 fine for swearing is a bit of a worry though.

  • 142
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Agreed

  • 143
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    @chrispytweets: As of this week, homosexuality has been decriminalised across all European territories. Northern Cyprus was the last. http://t.co/KQPupcFlst

  • 144
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    Abbott has just announced an enquiry into the health impacts on Wind Turbines.

  • 145
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    “of”

  • 146
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    Abbott on SPC last year –

    http://www.sharmanstone.com/MediaandSpeeches/MediaReleases/tabid/73/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/901/A-message-from-Tony-Abbott-for-SPC-Ardmona-Community-Rally.aspx

    Mind you, apart from the usual ‘this is happening because Julia Gillard is teh Evil’ stuff, all he promises to do is get rid of the carbon tax, so the SPC workers should have been reading between the lines.

  • 147
    BK
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Abbott has just announced an enquiry into the health impacts on Wind Turbines.

    MTBW
    Are you serious?

  • 148
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    MTBW

    Bloody hell . Next he will be looking at fluoridation and immunization.

  • 149
    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Im still waiting to hear from LNP supporters: in your mind, why is the Abbott government so far behind in the polls, and so early?

    Genuinely interested.

  • 150
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    BK

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/1/28/wind-power/wind-turbine-inquiry-reflects-science-free-cabinet

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