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South Australian election guide: March 15

Introducing the Poll Bludger's comprehensive seat-by-seat guide to South Australia's March 15 state election.

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The Poll Bludger’s guide to the South Australian state election is open for business, offering comprehensive overviews of each of the state’s 47 lower house electoral districts including, in most cases, booth result maps (with an upper house guide to follow when I can find time). Labor goes into the election with 26 seats against 18 for the Liberals, with three independents. The numbers are unchanged from the 2010 election, there having been no party resignations or defeats for incumbent parties at by-elections.

Labor did remarkably well to secure the above score line at the 2010 election, given that they were outpolled 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. The margins listed on the election guide entry page tell the story, with Labor holding 11 of their 26 seats by 5% or less compared with only three for the Liberals, and the Liberals holding five seats on margins equal to or greater than Labor’s safest seat. This may point to a difficulty for a one-vote one-value regime in delivering balanced party representation when conservative support is strongly concentrated outside the city, Labor’s only substantial basis of support outside Adelaide being in the declining “iron triangle” cities. Of these, only Whyalla continues to furnish Labor with a reliable seat in Giles, with Port Augusta and Port Pirie respectively subsumed in the conservative seats of Stuart and Frome. By contrast, Adelaide is home to swathe of marginal seats which appear, on the basis of the 2010 result, to have a slight natural lean to Labor.

A provision in the state’s constitution requiring that an effort be made to achieve “electoral fairness” has for most of the past two decades resulted in redistributions after each election which have specifically aimed to even up any biases, the target being to guarantee victory to the party that exceeds 50% in the event of a uniform swing. That assumption was seriously confounded by the 2010 result, at which the only two swings to Labor in the whole state happened to be in their two most marginal seats (Light and Mawson, at Adelaide’s northern top and southern tail). Elsewhere, a combined 9.4% swing in Adelaide deflated Labor margins in a brace of seats where blowouts had occurred in their favour in 2010, but only Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood switched to the Liberal column (Norwood, its name now changed to Dunstan, was won from Labor by none other than Steven Marshall, who took less than three years to rise from marginal seat challenger to Opposition Leader).

As I wrote in Crikey last week, this caused the boundaries commissioners to put the uniform swing objective into the too-hard basket, and they proceeded with an unambitious redistribution that contented itself with clipping Labor’s wings in marginal seats where the opportunity presented itself. Consequently, a Liberal Party that starts from a 2010 election base of 51.6% needs to gain still more to win office, so long as the uniform swing assumption holds. Three pieces of low-hanging fruit are available in the form of Hartley (0.1%), Bright (0.5%) and Ashford (0.6%), but beyond that point the Liberals run into the problem of the three independents, all from naturally conservative seats – Don Pegler in Mount Gambier, which was last held by Labor in 1975; Geoff Brock in Frome, where Labor’s base of support in Port Pirie is more outweighed by surrounding country territory; and the naturally conservative seat of Fisher in foothills suburbs in southern Adelaide, which former Liberal MP Bob Such has held as an independent since quitting the party in 2000.

The Liberals have talked up their chances in all three, but Bob Such in particular will surely be very hard to shake loose, having won by 16.6% in 2010. However, a trend against independents around the country over recent years suggests Geoff Brock can take nothing for granted in Frome, which he won narrowly at a by-election in 2009 and retained by 7.5% at the general election the following year. Mount Gambier is hard to predict, as sitting member Don Pegler won by a hair’s breadth in 2010 upon the retirement of another independent, Rory McEwen. Independents generally perform well after they have had a term to entrench themselves, but a mood for majority government might make this time an exception. There appears an outside prospect of independents poaching metropolitan seats from Labor in Lee, where popular local mayor Gary Johanson is targeting a seat where the Labor member is retiring, and Mitchell, where Labor-turned-independent MP Kris Hanna is trying again after retaining the seat as an independent in 2006, then falling short in 2010. There are no major independent threats in Liberal seats that I am aware of; the Nationals lost their only seat to the Liberals in 2010, and do not seem likely to make a comeback this time.

Should Pegler, Brock and Such remain where they are, that leaves the Liberals needing another three seats if they are to go all the way, which the pendulum suggests is likely if they achieve a swing of 3%. That doesn’t seem a particularly high mountain to climb for an opposition facing a 12-year-old government, but it requires a two-party preferred win of beyond 54-46, which is not something the polls have been crediting them with with any consistency. Failing that though, as the 2010 result makes clear, it’s by no means impossible that a smaller swing can give them what they need provided it’s fortuitously distributed.

If one South Australian election guide isn’t enough for you, Ben Raue’s typically thorough effort is available here, and I gather Antony Green’s should be along any day now.

UPDATE (31/1): A fairly comprehensive update to my entry for the seat of Napier will shortly be required following gobsmacking developments, in which a) member Michael O’Brien announced he would make way in the seat for Don Farrell, the principal powerbroker of his Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association faction and a soon-to-be former Senator and powerbroker, b) Jay Weatherill threatened in an ABC Radio to quit politics if this proceeded, invoking Farrell’s involvement in the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd and agreeing voters might perceive a possibility that Farrell would move against him after the election, and and c) Farrell backed down and announced he would make no further efforts to pursue a career in politics when his Senate term expires in the middle of the year.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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94 comments

94 thoughts on “South Australian election guide: March 15

  1. Danny Lewis

    I make the bold prediction here and now that 2014 will be very much like 2010: the swings will be all over the place.

    Labor will retain seats it expected to lose and lose seats it expected to retain.

    But don’t be surprised to see the Weatherill Government re-elected …

  2. Diogenes

    Danny

    There is so much apathy about this election that anything could happen. No-one feels strongly about either leader (they are basically interchangeable from the little I have seen of them) and I really don’t think it matters much to SA who wins.

  3. Everything

    [Danny Lewis
    …..But don’t be surprised to see the Weatherill Government re-elected …]

    I will be! :devil:

  4. Danny Lewis

    Interesting to read reports (admittedly from News Limited, so who knows how true they are) that Don Farrell is being parachuted into Napier for the coming election.

    There is a very good reason they would put him in Napier; he can’t represent the area he lives in because it is blue ribbon Liberal and the chances of Labor ever winning it are Buckley’s and none.

    You see, he lives in Burnside. Waterfall Gully Road, Burnside, to be precise. Some of the most expensive real estate in Adelaide, for the benefit of those outside South Australia who wouldn’t know these things. Fancy a union official living in a million dollar mansion, eh?

    On the other hand, the seat he has been picked to stand for, Napier, houses some of the poorest people and has some of the most significant generational social problems in the state. It will additionally have been very hard hit by the closure of Holden, as many of the people who are or were employed either work for Holden or for one of the local car component manufacturers who rely on their custom.

    But never mind; I’m sure he’ll have no problems fitting in. After all, the incumbent, Michael O’Brien, lives in Springfield, which isn’t that much further down the “wealth” ladder than Burnside.

    At least Annette Hurley and Terry Hemmings (previous members) lived and worked in the electorate prior to their preselection; they were very much “of” the area and the constituents would have known this.

    The Labor Party seems to be labouring (pardon the pun) under the delusion that it’s perfectly okay to parachute any person into a safe Labor seat and people won’t give a shite whether or not that person is a local or whether they could be adequately represented by someone who doesn’t understand or can’t relate to their issues.

    That may be right for this seat for the moment (as the electorate would never elect a Liberal unless the boundaries change dramatically) but I suspect the day will come when Labor will get a rude awakening from a strong local Independent. If and when that day happens, that Independent will pretty much have a career for life.

  5. spur212

    Jay Weatherill has just threatened to resign before the state election if Don Farrell is preselected.

  6. Toorak Toff

    Jay is taking on the dominant Right which put him where he is. This signals the end of the Machine – the Right-Left alliance – and the end of 12 years of Labor government in SA.

    A new, refreshed Labor Party will arise from the ashes.

  7. Toorak Toff

    BTW Danny Lewis, I reckon Springfield is far more silvertail than Waterfall Gully. Don Farrell’s house is on First Creek and prone to flooding. But the dam is about to burst in SA Labor.

  8. Danny Lewis

    Good on him.

    Can’t stand Farrell. His fingerprints have been all over every major stoush in the SA Labor Party for every one of the 20 years+ I’ve been involved.

    But worse still, he’s a nest-featherer. No interest in policy except for those which further his personal agenda. He’s after a sinecure from which he can continue to turn the SA Labor Party into a sad facsimile of the DLP.

    If he gets preselected the ALP can kiss goodbye to any support from me. I’ve had enough of the bastard.

  9. Danny Lewis

    TT: yeah, I think you might be right.

    “The Machine” was one of the saddest developments in the Party. By locking out non-factional members (or people from the smaller factions) from involvement in party matters, all it achieved was to send the message the party wasn’t interested in the views of ordinary members.

    I was both a Personal Assistant and a Sub-Branch Secretary at this time and the lengths the factions were prepared to go to – particularly Farrell’s SDA contingent of the Right – to shut out participation was frightening. My member’s and my own branch had people stacked into it; some of whom had no idea they had been joined up to the Labor Party. One guy told me he didn’t even vote Labor!

    If nothing else comes out of this, let’s at least have a discussion about democracy in the Labor Party. It’s about time power was put back in the hands of the membership, and that “Godfathers” like Farrell become a thing of the past.

  10. Danny Lewis

    Nah, Springfield is a bit too nouveau riche.

    Burnside is where the old money is 😉

  11. caf

    Without wanting to detract from the substance of your comment, it’s still worth pointing out that in an era of ~$500k median house prices a “million dollar mansion” ain’t what it once was.

  12. Independently Thinking

    Thanks for the great guide Bill!

    If I may point out that Kris Hanna in Mitchell was Labor-Green-Independent but apart from that very spot on.

    After this morning’s offer by Premier Weatherill to resign if Don Farrell is pre-selected in Napier, I am sure the Right of the ALP in SA will take him up on the offer.

    People in politics know Don Farrell has no interest in being Premier or anything too burdensome – but he certainly runs the place – and within a matter of days Jay Weatherill will be leading a dispirited & disunited ALP into an election massacre or he will be replaced by leading right bovver boy ‘Turbo’ Tom Koutstantonis – who will still lose.

    BTW, interestingly, the ALP have made yet unreleased ads for the election based on actors bagging the Libs (Fed & State) and the positive ads prominently feature Tom K in hard hat as the voiceover spruiks the State Government’s infrastructure spending. Of course Weatherill features in voiceovers and some scenes, but he is easy enough to replace…

  13. Unitary State

    I don’t know why Don Farrell is bothering. He is over 60 years old for God’s sake. He should just piss off and live in his ultra lux mansion for life.

    I fear, that with his destructive factionalism he is going to cost Labor winning a perfectly winnable election.

    If Weatherill sticks to his word and emerges with Don not preselected, than he will have more legitimicy and strength than ever. I somehow fear this may not be the case.

  14. Carey Moore

    And, just like that, SA Labor became NSW Labor. I certainly hope Weatherill follows through on his threat – he shouldn’t have to wear the blame of Farrell’s goons.

  15. Unitary State

    Don Farrell right now is criticising Rudd and blaming him for his loss – yet in this case he is no different to Rudd in that he puts his own interests before his own party.

  16. Patrick Bateman

    [Jay Weatherill has just threatened to resign before the state election if Don Farrell is preselected.]
    About time someone stood up to these bastards.

    Having participated in the carnage at the Federal level, Farrell is now slithering back to state politics to have a go at trashing that. He and his ilk should shove off and allow some kind of functional Labor/centre-left/progressive party to be rebuilt from the wreckage they have left behind.

  17. Carey Moore

    Unsurprisingly, the hard right, elitist faction hacks of PB are in the main thread trying to defend this and present Farrell as an angel who is only trying to make the world a better place.

  18. Carey Moore

    [ABC News ‏@abcnews 1m
    #BREAKING: Labor Senator Don Farrell withdraws his candidacy for seat of Napier in SA Parliament]

  19. Carey Moore

    [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 1m
    Don Farrell on @ABCNews24 ‘I shall play no further part in public life, state or federally.’ Big for SA Labor politics.]

    Okay, today just became a great day for SA.

  20. Patrick Bateman

    My take on the suburbs issue –

    Springfield is where you live when you want to be able to tell people how impressive you are. Lots of large black Mercedes 4WDs, super-over priced women’s clothing shops, and ostentatious renovations.

    Burnside (which Waterfall Gully Rd borders) is where you live where you want to live in a rich, private part of town. Lots of pedigree dogs, lawn tennis clubs, and large rambling houses with large rambling gardens.

  21. Carey Moore

    After all of this, still do not underestimate the ability of the SA Libs to say or do something stupid and ruin their advantage from today.

  22. Danny Lewis

    I agree, Carey.

    It is still entirely possible that Vicki Chapman will say something monumentally stupid during the last week of the campaign 😉

  23. Danny Lewis

    Patrick: a very good friend of mine grew up on Waterfall Guly Road, Burnside.

    Her house is just a few doors up from Chateau Farrell 😉

  24. Danny Lewis

    *Gully, obviously

  25. Toorak Toff

    Jay should come out of this with an enhanced reputation.

  26. Danny Lewis

    I wonder if Farrell has been offered something else?

    He said “take no further part in public life at either a state or federal level”, but that leaves open all sorts of other opportunities at an international level 😉

  27. Danny Lewis

    TT: I love the way Psephos is suggesting this was an evil Left plot designed specifically to bring down The Don.

    *snork*

    😀

  28. Carey Moore

    Danny

    Farrell for local Council 😉

  29. Carey Moore

    [Jay should come out of this with an enhanced reputation.]

    Probably not amongst general voters though.

  30. Unitary State

    I have no doubt Jay Weatherill will emerge from today stronger than ever. Good on him for sticking to his word and taking no prisinors. I admire him more than ever now. I wish he would one day in the not too distant future be a figure in federal politics. He has goods.

  31. Independently Thinking

    #US @ 13

    Farrell is turning 60 this year.

    My mate in the ALP Right was just printing some “Don 4 SA” T shirts too when he pulled out. Pity.

    I am waiting for someone to do a Miley Cyrus Wrecking Ball parody with Don Farrell in it.

  32. Danny Lewis

    😀

    My biggest fear, though – if he’s true to his word – is this leaves him with far too much time on his hands.

    Farrell bored and experiencing a power vacuum. A dangerous combination, IMHO.

  33. Carey Moore

    If I were Weatherill’s campaign manager, I’d very much spin this as JW being an independent leader who doesn’t kneel the the factions and old boys, and is about the state and party of the 21st century. Or something like that. Very much in line with the whole “Jay 4 SA” motif.

    Probably would fail but it’d be worth a shot.

  34. Patrick Bateman

    [Farrell for local Council ;-)]
    Probably about the right level of transparency and democracy for a man of his aptitudes.

  35. Diogenes

    [Don Farrell on @ABCNews24 ‘I shall play no further part in public life, state or federally.’]

    Because everyone told me to fark off.

  36. Unitary State

    Somehow I get the feeling that the people behind the leaks for the past few months were people behind Farrell such as Michael O’Brien.

    Now that that is gone, everything should be good now.

  37. Carey Moore

    [Somehow I get the feeling that the people behind the leaks for the past few months were people behind Farrell such as Michael O’Brien.]

    I was thinking that this morning.

  38. Carey Moore

    [And, just like that, SA Labor became NSW Labor.]

    I retract this. If it were NSW Labor, Farrell would’ve won the stand-off and John Rau, Jack Snelling or Tom Koutsantonis would be off to the Governor to become Premier.

  39. Unitary State

    Carey Moore @38

    I am even optimistic now that NSW Labor is on the mend slowly but surely.

    I just hope they axe Robbo within the next few months. He is a lame dead duck that no one gives two hoots about.

  40. Unitary State

    Independently Thinking @31

    Are you serious that such T-Shirts were already being prepared? What a joke.

  41. Kevin Bonham

    So why did Weatherill have to go to the point of threatening to resign if Farrell got the nod? Did he not have the numbers to do it any other way or did he just want to blow the guy out of the water as quickly and spectacularly as possible?

  42. Carey Moore

    I’m assuming the “Don 4 SA” reference was tongue-in-cheek. A parody of the “Jay 4 SA” campaign.

  43. Carey Moore

    [So why did Weatherill have to go to the point of threatening to resign if Farrell got the nod? Did he not have the numbers to do it any other way or did he just want to blow the guy out of the water as quickly and spectacularly as possible?]

    I think that the Left (or other opponents of Farrell) have realised that the only way to beat Farrell in a factional battle is by making it a public one. If it’s done in private, then he wins because the machine is still well stacked in his favour.

  44. Kevin Bonham

    Carey Moore@43


    So why did Weatherill have to go to the point of threatening to resign if Farrell got the nod? Did he not have the numbers to do it any other way or did he just want to blow the guy out of the water as quickly and spectacularly as possible?


    I think that the Left (or other opponents of Farrell) have realised that the only way to beat Farrell in a factional battle is by making it a public one. If it’s done in private, then he wins because the machine is still well stacked in his favour.

    If that is the case then there is a problem. If he only gets his way against “the machine” by threatening to blow everything up, then even if he wins the election he won’t be able to get his way with that tactic again for a while. So it should be able to be spun as a serious stability issue.

    Thought Farrell’s form of words ” I don’t want to see what’s happening federally happen in SA.” was unfortunate if correctly quoted. What’s happening federally is the party is making some attempt to learn from its mistakes, putting the past behind it and leading a new government in the polls. He should have used past tense.

  45. Independently Thinking

    [I retract this. If it were NSW Labor, Farrell would’ve won the stand-off and John Rau, Jack Snelling or Tom Koutsantonis would be off to the Governor to become Premier.]

    Likely all 3.

  46. Carey Moore

    You’re right, Kevin and it’s all been clunkily handled. Farrell should’ve discussed this privately with Weatherill as well.

    While it’s a good look for Weatherill to stand up against Farrell (and, by extension, the factional bosses) he did reveal one bit of knowledge that could really badly hurt Labor: that his leadership is not as secure as we were led to believe. This plays well into the Libs’ hands who’ve worked their absolute hardest to put up a united front since Marshall became leader.

  47. Socrates

    Afternoon all. Busy at work today and only just caught up with the news. Farrell what were you thinking??? Now Labor will cop the disunity tag from now till when Marshall becomes premier.

    Surely this thing should have been sorted out in private in advance. As others have said, Farrell should have left the Senate to go live in his million dollar mansion. Speaking of which, how much do they pay union officials now? Waterfall Gully Road is like an address in Toorak.

    Good for Weatherall for staying strong. He was on a hiding to nothing if he let Farrell slither into State politics. Trouble is, I think this is the last nail in the SA Labor coffin, precisely because it exposes that the party machine runs almost everything.

    The SDAE are the same geniuses who sent Bernard Finnigan to the upper house. Do they have any toes left to shoot off?

  48. Carey Moore

    Just incidentally, I was a stone’s throw away from Michael O’Brien’s electorate office today (I was popping into Munno Para Dan Murphy’s on the way home for something to soften the blow of this heat). There was a channel 10 broadcast truck camped outside in the carpark and a camera person setting up. I am guessing O’Brien had a few things to say (I missed the evening news.)

  49. Socrates

    Carey

    Is O’Brien definite in his resignation? Can Labor still hold his seat now? They only have a two seat margin…

  50. Carey Moore

    [Is O’Brien definite in his resignation?]

    No idea. Anyone?

    [Can Labor still hold his seat now? They only have a two seat margin…]

    Napier is one of the safest Labor seats in the state. And there are no notable independents in the area that could pull an upset (Aldridge couldn’t, before anybody mentions him) so I’d say the seat will be comfortably retained by Labor, regardless of who the candidate is.

  51. Socrates

    Carey

    Thanks for the answers. Still, this was surely one of the dumbest days in SAa politis for some time.

    After helping create the circumstances that led to Tony Abbott becoming PM, and probably now Steve Marshall as Premier, Don Farrell can deservedly be considered for life membership of the Liberal Party now. Hs any other person in SA political history done more to get the Liberals into office?

    At this point the Liberal attack ads almost write themselves.

  52. Unitary State

    Socrates @51

    I doubt that the Liberals will mention it in their ads. It is old news already.

    It will be forgotten by tomorrow. Today was little more than a nothing-more-to-see day.

  53. Socrates

    Unitary State

    Yes, if the polls now move towards the Liberals after Weatherall had been closing the gap since late last year, I am sure this farce will have nothing to do with it. Farrell is a blameless, unselfish, angelic genius.

    As they say in politics, “Disunity is a sure path to reelection”

  54. Socrates

    US

    For your information, about Liberal attentions:
    [The Liberal Party was quick to seize on the infighting, tweeting a photo of Mr Weatherill in front of Senator Farrell with Mr Rudd, Ms Gillard and former premier Mike Rann in the background – and the caption “who’s next?”]
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/don-farrell-backs-down-from-bid-to-enter-sa-parliament-after-premier-jay-weatherill-threatens-to-resign/story-fni6uo1m-1226814451376

  55. Carey Moore

    Socrates, well said.

    All that I could think to myself today is “If we re-elect Jay Weatherill as Premier in March, who will be Premier in 2018?” – a sentiment the Libs are definitely going to seize upon.

  56. Socrates

    Carey

    At this point, it is hard to imagine anyone outside of Farrell’s own office staff who would pretend otherwise.

    Jokes aside, this was always going to be a hard election to win for Labor. After the hamfisted handling of the Holden decision by Abbott and Weatherall’s positivity I thought Jay might have a chance. But after this, only Vicky Chapman can win it for Labor. Someone should ask Vicky what she thinks of loyalty to party leaders?

  57. Diogenes

    Carey

    [I’d say the seat will be comfortably retained by Labor, regardless of who the candidate is.]

    Farrell could have lost it with his proven vote-pulling power. 👿

  58. Unitary State

    Socrates @56

    Don’t worry Socrates. very soon Vicky will spew up the dumbest line of the year for sure. As she always does.

  59. Unitary State

    Socrates @54

    This picture? It honestly means nothing. It will hold no weight as Farrell is not in state parliament and now will never be in state parliament.
    https://twitter.com/SALibMedia/status/429017203204038657/photo/1

  60. Diogenes

    US

    [Don’t worry Socrates. very soon Vicky will spew up the dumbest line of the year for sure. As she always does.]

    But will their shadow Treasurer admit his figures are just spin like he did just before the last election.

  61. Unitary State

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEGmkv1Y_8k

    ^theres vicki chapman for you, you can so tell she is pure trash and only in politics for the fame of it

  62. Unitary State

    Diogenes @60

    If only

  63. Carey Moore

    [But will their shadow Treasurer admit his figures are just spin like he did just before the last election.]

    A bit off topic but the Shadow Treasurer, Iain Evans, is the one who scares me most about the Libs getting into power. The rest, including Marshall, are harmless but Evans is a factionally driven ideologue in a similar mould to Olsen. I worry about what he’d do with the public purse, as well as what plotting he’d be up to…

  64. Unitary State

    Honestly, post election, the “fairness criteria” for electoral redistributions needs to be scrapped. It is a complete joke.

  65. Carey Moore

    [Honestly, post election, the “fairness criteria” for electoral redistributions needs to be scrapped. It is a complete joke.]

    It can only be removed by referendum but I agree, it is a ridiculous system of gerrymandering that rarely seems to actually achieve what it aspires to and punishes marginal MPs for being popular amongst their electors.

    Ideally, I’d say either scrap it or go all the way with proportional representation.

  66. Unitary State

    If High-speed rail was to run to Adelaide, where would you prefer the station was located at?

    A) Victoria Square
    B) North Terrace railway station area
    C) far Northern fringes of Adelaide

  67. Unitary State

    Carey Moore @65

    I can see the merits of proportional representation against the westminster single-member electorates; but I normally disagree on it for national elections as single-member electorates ensure that at least 80% of the time there is single-party government, the key to political stability.

    In any case, if we were to scrap the states one day, we would have regions/provinces/cantons (whatever they will be called) that vary vastly in population unlike most other unitary states. for instance, Sydney or Melbourne have populations approaching 5 million, but a province for Cairns would house under 200 thousand people. It is hard to see how proportional representation would work well under such a method for national elections.

  68. Carey Moore

    Well, if SA ever were to go for proportional representation, I personally endorse a 7×7 Hare-Clark type system.

    I wouldn’t support a single statewide PR system, unless it was mixed with single member, like in NZ.

  69. Unitary State

    Well, I do remember for a fact Labor had a policy a few years ago of getting rid of the upper house in SA. I do hope they revisit it if they happen to be re-elected. As Paul Keating himself used to say, it is unrepresentative swill.

  70. Carey Moore

    As for the High Speed Rail question earlier, I believe that all interstate rail goes to Keswick at the moment, so I imagine it’d hypothetically go there. However, I imagine if HSR ever reached Adelaide, it’d be a while away and I’d hope Adelaide’s transport layout is quite different by then…

  71. Unitary State

    Carey Moore@70

    well If the proposed under-the-city subway was built, most lines along the Nth Terrace area would be made redundant and make more space for parkland. The number of suburban rail lines would be cut from 5 to 2 – a simple eastern line and a simple western line.

    The line would hypothetically bend right underground after the Mile End station, then have a station at Victoria Square and a few streets later make a U-turn to connect with the Adelaide station along Nth terrace.

  72. Socrates

    US

    High speed rail will never be economically viable to Adelaide in our life time. It is not viable from Sydney to Melbourne. It would cost billions. We haven’t even finished electrifying the suburban train lines we already have.

    The proposed city rail loop is a long term planning option. It might be needed in thirty years. In fact, there are light rail systems in the world that carry more people than our entire PT system (e.g. Strasbourg, Docklands) so even then, I think we would be better off with a tram loop for a fraction of the cost. Again, the cost would be billions, which we do not have.

  73. Socrates

    [As for the High Speed Rail question earlier, I believe that all interstate rail goes to Keswick at the moment, so I imagine it’d hypothetically go there. However, I imagine if HSR ever reached Adelaide, it’d be a while away and I’d hope Adelaide’s transport layout is quite different by then…]
    HSR requires a completely different standard of track and infrastructure. The tunnel through the hills is too low for starters. All the interstate rail track built for freight would need to be replaced, including all switches, electric power, new track capacity at the Melbourne end (where? No land is available), sorry, HSR to Adelaide is like wishing for honest debate from Andrew Bolt. It will never happen.

  74. Toorak Toff

    The Tiser is having a field day on ‘Labor disunity’. Can’t vouch for their accuracy though. Their hotshot political writers think Don Farrell lives at Mitcham!

    Labor has had two leaders since its 1993 electoral debacle (Rann and Weatherill). The Libs have had Brown, Olsen, Kerin, Evans, Hamilton Smith, Redmond, Marshall. Have I missed someone?

  75. Diogenes

    Interesting stuff on the Labor factions and their history. The journo predicts that the end of the Farrell Era and the Machine will lead to smaller factions with less power.

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/inside-labors-fractious-factions/story-fni6uo1m-1226815405629

  76. Unitary State

    Socrates @71

    Well, the railway line from Broken Hill to Sydney can mostly be converted to HSR if you ask me. It is a shame to know it won’t happen in our lifetime as HSR from Adelaide to Sydney would completely reinvigorate places such as Broken Hill which are on the verge of being wiped of the map in 10 years or so.

  77. Kevin Bonham

    Unitary State@64

    Honestly, post election, the “fairness criteria” for electoral redistributions needs to be scrapped. It is a complete joke.

    My impression from afar is the same – that the concept is naive, unworkable and potentially unfair and should be scrapped.

  78. Socrates

    US

    HSR costs at least $20 milion per km to build as a system cost, and is built between cities with populations in the millions. From Adelaide to Broken Hill is over 500km, so over $10 billion to build HSR not counting the cost of a land corridor. Broken Hill has a population of 18,000, equating to about $600,000 per resident to build HSR. Also meaning it would be cheaper to buy every resident of Broken Hill a house on the coast instead of HSR. Sorry it will never happen to Broken Hill in anyone’s lifetime. Maybe Adelaide to Melbourne HSR in 50 years time, when we have run out of oil.

  79. Socrates

    TT 74

    Your point about leadership stability in SA is valid – the Libs have been far worse than Labor, not even counting those like Chapman who would like to try. Nevertheless, as I said on friday, conservative forces will use the Farrell gambit against Labor, and it is at best an unnecessary distraction.

    Incidentally, as much as I criticise Farrell, O’Brien also deserves blame. The seat is not his to “give” to a mate. If he was going to retire, he should have said so earlier than six weeks out, in time for a proper preselection.

  80. 1934pc

    “Everything” has the smell of TISME folks!.

  81. spur212

    The problem for the ALP in regards to all the factional stuff is people saw what happened federally which is much louder than what’s happened with the Liberals in this state which has been out of view for around a year or so.

    Of course if Marshall wins (it’s still an if at this point purely because it’s very difficult to win elections in this state from opposition) you can assume all the Liberals factional stuff will come to a head pretty quickly after a brief honeymoon period. It’s sort of a lose/lose for voters in this state. It’s like both parties are saying “screw giving value to voters, just focus on the other side’s internal stuff.” This is what turns people off public affairs.

  82. Unitary State

    spur212 @81

    To be honest, Labor’s tram proposal is an idea worth liking if you ask me

  83. Carey Moore

    Can I just ask: Where the hell have the Libs been? I’ve barely heard a word from them. I mean I know that if the other side is shooting themselves in the foot, you don’t get in the way but the SA ALP are notorious for being able to bounce back from this stuff. I’d be all over the media, putting the foot on Labor – finishing them off. I don’t even mean go negative. They could be out there saying “While Labor are fighting themselves, we’re ready to fight for you by (insert policy)!”

    Bloody hopeless! (Unless they are paranoid that the more they speak, the more likely they are to screw it up – which is a fair concern I guess.)

  84. Independently Thinking

    Interesting Dave Garland has put his hand up for Napier.

    For those form outside SA who are unsure of what Napier is like demographically – bit like in Sydney mainly Cabramatta (without the multicultural influence) with a bit of Blue Mountains thrown in; or in Melbourne a bit like Werribee with a bit of Trentham thrown in.

    Dave Garland is a long time ALP member and though unaligned himself he has strong connections to the Left. He is also, unusually for the ALP, a resident of the electorate.

    He is an outstanding candidate and ticks all the boxes apart from the fact the Right will have none of it.

    His comments when nominating are aimed to let the Right know if he fails to get pre-selection by a factional deal that it will look as if a genuine local Labor boy is knocked off by someone parachuted in by the nasty ALP Right…a perfect set up for an Independent Labor win.

    You read it here first!

  85. Socrates

    I saw Liberal attack adds tonight linking Farrell’s unsuccessful tilt with Labor leadership turmoil. I agree that the Liberal leadrship is at least as unstable, with Chapman or others likely to challenge the second Mrshall makes his first slip. But that is not what the voters will hear. They are hearing about Labor leadership turmoil. As I said, Farrell’s crazily timed stunt is at best a distraction, at worst damaging to Labor.

    As for those who said it would be quickly forgotten… Dream on. In a state where the Advertiser is the only metro newspaper, with no Fairfax press, what did Farrell expect? Adulation?

  86. ShowsOn

    [I saw Liberal attack adds tonight linking Farrell’s unsuccessful tilt with Labor leadership turmoil.]
    What about the 5AA advert with the new breakfast team Penberthy, Jane Reily and Mark Aiston?

    In that advert Penerthy cites the Adelaide Oval upgrade as an example of “all South Australians coming together”. Well what about the Liberal party of Australia – S.A. Division that opposed it every step of the way including during the 2010 election campaign?

  87. Carey Moore

    I saw the Liberal attack ads. You can pretty much guess the formula. It’s the same formula ad that the Libs have been running since time immemorial. The black background with black and white photos and headlines, and splashes of red, with the voice actor who does the blokey bogan voice growling about “Labor turmoil” etc.

    Oh well, it’s effective, so why change?

  88. Carey Moore

    Also, one thing I’ve noticed about the ad is the line about “while the state loses jobs, they only care about theirs”. While, on the surface, it looks just like an attack on their priorities, it actually is a sneaky way of implying that the two are actually linked. Therefore, if the ad sinks in, all job losses will be seen as Labor’s fault (including the Olympic Dam related ones and those caused by the Abbott Government’s cuts.)

  89. Toorak Toff

    Right candidate Jon Gee was chosen by Labor’s State Executive yesterday as the party’s candidate for Napier.

    Gee, 54, is the secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union’s vehicle division. ‘The Advertiser’ reports that the married father of three adult children was a key figure in negotiations for a new pay deal for Holden workers, lives in Craigmore (in Napier) and drives a Commodore.

  90. Toorak Toff

    Jon Gee seems a good fit for Napier. He’s from the Right but not, it seems, the core Right of his predecessor, Michael O’Brien.

    The other announced candidate for Napier, factionally unaligned Dave Garland of the National Union of Workers, would have been a great choice IMHO.

  91. Unitary State

    The Liberal attack ads on Don Farrell won’t hold any weight. Farrell withdrew his nomination and it is old news. By election day everyone will forget about it.

  92. Carey Moore

    Some more SA polling (from a polling company; not the Ragvertiser) would be nice, considering the writs for the election will be issued this Saturday…

  93. Socrates

    A good news story here – Hewlett Packard to relocate over 400 jobs to Adelaide. Tis is exactly what we should compete for – skilled jobs attracted by pleasant lifestyle and affordable housing.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-11/hewlett-packard-expansion-promises-430-adelaide-jobs/5251204?section=sa

  94. Socrates

    A less good news story – a valuable piece of government owned land sold off without tender, and Renewal SA directors resigning as a result. Tom Koutsantonis is the Liberal’s best friend.
    http://indaily.com.au/news/2014/02/11/renewal-sa-board-rejected-gillman-land-deal/