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Essential Research: 50-50

Still no sign of Newspoll, but the ever-reliable Essential Research still has a two-party deadlock, and offers responses on Peter Cosgrove, unions, parental leave and intolerance.

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Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition by a point to 43%, Labor by two to 38%. The Greens are down a point to 8%, the Palmer United Party down one to 3% and others down to two to 7%. Also covered:

• Only 4% rate Peter Cosgrove “not a good choice” for Governor-General, with 30%, 34% and 11% respectively rating the choice excellent, good and acceptable.

• Forty-three per cent are happy for the Governor-General to be appointed by the government, with 40% favouring direct election.

• Sixty-one per cent think unions “important for Australian working people today”, compared with only 30% who think them not important, with 45% thinking workers would be better off if unions were stronger compared with 27% for worse off.

• In response to a question which first explains the specifics of the government’s policy, including the $150,000 ceiling and 1.5% levy, only 23% favoured the government scheme over 36% for the current policy and 32% for neither.

• There are also questions on the prevalence on various forms of intolerance, which you can read about in the report.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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875 comments

875 thoughts on “Essential Research: 50-50

  1. WeWantPaul

    Libs I work with thought Howes was brilliant and expect unions to be voluntarily sacrificing penalty rates, holiday pay and any form of redundancy payment entirely. They are delighted and planing how to spend their increased bonuses. I have no idea what Howes said but I assume it was all about Paul – and entirely the wrong Paul.

  2. WeWantPaul

    [My favourite Howes moment was when he called a press conference to announce he wasn’t running for a Senate vacancy which wasn’t vacant yet.
    ]

    Yes I think that sums Paul up.

  3. Boerwar

    The reason this looks very dangerous is because it is:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBQKrJh6O70

  4. billie

    Victoria is set to follow Queensland restricting group protest

    http://www.weareunion.org.au/napthines_silencing_act

  5. Darn

    [WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink
    Libs I work with thought Howes was brilliant and expect unions to be voluntarily sacrificing penalty rates, holiday pay and any form of redundancy payment entirely. They are delighted and planing how to spend their increased bonuses. I have no idea what Howes said but I assume it was all about Paul – and entirely the wrong Paul.
    ]

    WWP

    If you had taken the trouble to listen to what he actually said you could have explained to them where they are wrong.

  6. zoomster

    They stopped leaving at 15 here about ten years ago, when the tobacco industry closed.

    I taught some of those who left at 15 to take over the family farm. The lucky ones ended up driving trucks.

    Anyhoo, as most Australian farmers are about retirement age – and many are older – they come from the generation where leaving at 15 was the norm anyway.

    There are very few ‘modern’ farms like those you describe in the whole of this region. Most farmers are farming much the same way their fathers and grandfathers did, with the addition of tractors.

  7. CTar1

    Bw/poroti

    The Swedish Navy have some explaining to do about their contribution to AGW!

  8. briefly

    [747
    Boerwar

    The link to denialism for this mob is, I believe, ideological rather than scientific.]

    Since denialism can hardly be scientific (it is an attempt to escape from science), it must be driven by ideology, identity or personality.

    The logic of climate change forces us to conclude that individual action is almost useless; that only collective action led by Governments – including foreign Governments and multilateral “entities” – can have any effect. Individuals are being told they should surrender their ideas of autonomy and their claims to personal success. The logic of preventing climate change requires us to trust the notoriously unscrupulous and the power-hungry. The implications are just preposterous to many a rural title holder, for whom it is so much easier to deny science than to cede to their natural enemies either righteousness or power.

  9. WeWantPaul

    [WWP

    If you had taken the trouble to listen to what he actually said you could have explained to them where they are wrong.
    ]

    They are liberal voters you do realize they don’t admit to being wrong any more than labor supporters do?

  10. zoidlord

    @billie/779

    Like QLD, the libs don’t like loosing, so silence your opponent.

  11. Boerwar

    [CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    Bw/poroti

    The Swedish Navy have some explaining to do about their contribution to AGW!]

    If they don’t go like the clappers, they die.

  12. Boerwar

    briefly @ 783
    What you said.

  13. Darn

    [WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink
    WWP

    If you had taken the trouble to listen to what he actually said you could have explained to them where they are wrong.

    They are liberal voters you do realize they don’t admit to being wrong any more than labor supporters do?]

    If they are just rusted on Liberals beyond the power of persuasion and with no prospect of ever being swinging voters, it’s totally irrelevant what they think of Howes isn’t it?

  14. Boerwar

    zoomster

    Yes. I think the average age of Australian farmers is around 52 – maybe a bit more.

    Not sure where you live but here’s my guess: around your way you would have hobby farms, irrigated farms, some well-watered cattle country on the slopes and then the rest.

    The hobby farms are essentially capital soaks buttressed by capital gains tax free homes.

    The well-watered cattle country is world-competitive because natural grass is world competitive.

    The irrigation farms are capital intensive and grow global commodities. If they don’t constantly improve their plant genetics, their input costs, their capital management, and their marketing, sooner or later they are goners. The wine grape growers are a case in point.

    The rest just mostly have their arses out of their pants and would be significant, albeit mostly temporary, carriersowners of Australia’s $70 billion of rural debt.

  15. poroti

    Something else to remember about the farmers is that a deep attachment to the land is not confined to Aborigines.

  16. Boerwar

    poroti
    True.

  17. briefly

    [752
    Oakeshott Country

    Zoomster
    but that is the other Nat cliche. “Families just locking up and walking away from the farm” just as other small businessmen see their assets go down the drain this is not a problem unique to farmers.]

    Of course, OC, you are correct in your observations. Financial collapse is not unique to farmers. However, this does not mean that it’s not a real problem. Speaking as one who lost everything down to and including his shoes and socks, and who received no help but, at best, came to know the facial features of indifference, I have to say my sympathies lie with anyone who faces dispossession and all the destruction that flows from it.

  18. briefly

    787
    Boerwar

    great minds, boer…. 🙂

  19. zoomster

    Boer

    everything up here was based around tobacco — the vineyards (worth speaking of) have been established since we moved here (so less than twenty five years).

    Tobacco was a brilliant crop. You could make enough off 50 acres to live very well and it involved about six months’ work.

    The farmers who survived the loss of the industry tended to be those who had ‘old’ farms (original selections) and ‘did’ tobacco in one corner (so to speak). Very few diversified successfully otherwise, largely because of the distance to markets.

    So it’s now mainly cattle grazing and fodder, with a few grapes.

  20. Tom the first and best

    779

    At least the Member for Frankston has slowed down the passage of the bill by voting down the Government`s legislative program for the week (thus allowing filibustering).

  21. Oakeshott Country

    RU
    Payoutsville – absolutely. When I lived on the north coast it was a common event. Retire from the public service at 55, move to the coast and sink it into the business you’ve dreamed of. You’ve been in the public service all your life so you know how to deal with the public. Some of the dreams were true nightmares -my favourites in little and conservative Port Macquarie: a rugby league memorabilia shop, a shop selling French porcelain and a cafe which attempted nouvelle cuisine. Of course many attempts at failed businesses were yet more surf shop.

    The vast majority fail within 18 months and the owners return to the city, go on the dole/pension or live on whatever is left.

    The Nats tend to be not too concerned by this even though it involves their constituents

  22. zoomster

    OC

    the typical scenario up here are people who come up for a holiday, fall in love with the place and then buy a small business (when they haven’t run one before).

    When it fails, it’s the fault of everybody but themselves.

  23. Bugler

    Zoomster,

    I wasn’t aware wine/grapes were big in NE Vic. Is it mostly food grapes? Or do they grow wine grapes for larger wineries based elsewhere (Mornington/Mildura/Yarra Valley)?

  24. zoidlord

    @OC/796

    Government should provide free business/financial advise if that is the case – with access to Government Data.

  25. fredex

    100,000 Australians [roughly] lost their jobs when the GFC hit.

  26. Bugler

    Also, once the Yarra Valley faded as a stone-fruit area I thought it largely went to Colac and Wangaratta

  27. Oakeshott Country

    Zoomster/Zoidlord
    It is a situation where the heart rules the head and government counselling will have only marginal effect.
    and yes even as the business fails there is often no insight its the “stupid people of Port Macquarie” ot the guv’ment who caused the business to fail.

  28. BK

    [100,000 Australians [roughly] lost their jobs when the GFC hit.]
    And a disproportionate number of those were from the mining industry which also is largely responsible for much of the undue wages increase in certain trades and skill sets.

  29. deflationite

    Lucky enough to visit a wheat farm in Kukerin a few years ago.

    The Harvesters were incredible.

    Each ‘paddock’ is programmed into the harvester with gps co-ordinates.

    The farmer just has to press a button and he sits in the seat while the harvester autonomously and precisely harvests the paddock using GPS and linear programming maths to get the crop in the most efficient way possible.

  30. zoomster

    Bugler

    tsk.

    We’re a cool climate wine area.

    http://gapstedwines.com.au/

    http://www.boynton.com.au/

    http://www.micheliniwines.com.au/

    Gapsted is the big one — most growers sell to them.

    No table grapes.

  31. zoomster

    I will add, wine has always been big in NE Vic. Rutherglen produces some of the best fortifieds; Brown Brothers has been around forever.

    The King Valley is another area, which – post tobacco – has established itself as a wine centre.

  32. victoria

    [Sharman Stone
    @BriggsJamie hello Jamie, you do know that Labor also announced a $25 mil Federal Grant to support #SPCA before the change of government?]

  33. zoomster

    Bugler

    Not much stone fruit around Wangaratta.

  34. Centre

    Diogs

    Howes is like the Greens, they have a lot in common – nothing but a nuisance and a hindrance.

    He should do everyone a favour, go get a different job and stay away from the ALP.

  35. Steven Grant Haby

    Zoomster @ 806

    Not to mention some fine cheese and other produce in the KV area as well.

    Steven

  36. CTar1

    Tones still top of the pops on the London Independent. First headline.

    [Is Tony Abbott’s Australian administration the most hostile to his nation’s environment in history? ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/is-tony-abbotts-australian-administration-the-most-hostile-to-his-nations-environment-in-history-9107534.html

  37. Bugler

    I didn’t realise Brown Brothers was from Milawa… it was probably just my Yarra Valley elitism speaking 😛 I grew up within walking distance of three wineries. The place I worked at had an emphasis on local wines as well (add to that I’m not that into wines. Being asked for personal opinions on wines was interesting… especially since I was 18 at the time so officially I shouldn’t know). I also know more about viticulture than I’d care to. I am glad the NE has diversified a bit. The Valley has quite a few industries (to an extent divided by ethnicity…)

  38. Bugler

    Zoomster,

    [Not much stone fruit around Wangaratta.]

    I’ve been lied to! However, for a while there was the serious suggestion we (as a family) move to the Colac area.

  39. rossmcg

    deflationite

    I recall a radio interview with a WA graingrower in which he described how the computer in the harvester could log where in a paddock the yield might be higher or lower according to soil type or whatever and next season they could vary the fertiliser for each patch according to the result.

  40. zoomster

    Bugler

    old Healesville girl myself. When I was growing up, there were no wineries in YV (except for one just outside Coldstream) – they had been wiped out decades before by phylloxera.

  41. zoomster

    Bugler

    Ah. Seville?

  42. rossmcg

    BK

    a few people have commented in the past when reviewing the GFC it was the miners who were the first to start laying off workers and in big numbers.

  43. Boerwar

    z
    Healesville was our first stop when we migrated. From there to Toolangi.

  44. Boerwar

    Good night all.

  45. liyana

    I know one worker who is overpaid his name is Paul Howes. What sort of union leader blames the people who employ him –

  46. victoria

    Night boerwar

  47. zoidlord

    @Liyana/820

    “a bad workman always blames his tools”.

    (Something could be said in Coalition Party camps too).

  48. Kevin Bonham

    Clive Palmer has claimed to have “internal polling” showing PUP will win the Tasmanian state election. I’ve debunked it here and also pointed to the history of false internal polling claimed by PUP before the federal election:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/pups-internal-polling-claims-are.html

  49. Bugler

    Close, Wandin East 🙂 . A town with a tennis court, a public hall and a badminton court. Seville was closer than Wandin North, though 🙂 .

    [When I was growing up, there were no wineries in YV (except for one just outside Coldstream)]

    Yering almost always had wineries, I think. My geography teacher went to great pains to tell us about phylloxera in the 19th Century. Coldsteam and Yering have the largest wineries still, I think 🙂 .

  50. Bugler

    Back in your day, zoomster, trains still went to Healesville 😛 (Imagine that now!)

  51. dave

    KB – That would be the same Clive who told us all he was running for PM. I doubt he could / should run anywhere.

    He is turning out to be just another big mouthed nutjob who bought himself some seats in the parliament, just when someone or collection of people with brains and some wisdom are going to be needed in the Senate in a few months time.

  52. zoomster

    Bugler

    Indeed. We had a special train once, to take us to the monastery on a school trip (all twelve of us). I used to come home on the train from Uni.

  53. Bugler

    Zoomster,

    I had this crazy fantasy of light rail connecting the various YV towns (particularly along the old Lilydale-Warburton trail, because it suited me the most *cough cough*)

    Uni for me wasn’t exactly direct. I drove 20mins to Lilydale, took a train then a bus. The fares are cheaper than the petrol though, and you can read while you travel. It’s takes the same time as driving in peak hour, too.

  54. victoria

    If even Liberals cannot trust Tony Abbott, how can you?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonClareMP/status/430835753489154048/photo/1

  55. confessions

    [Julie Bishop ‏@JulieBishopMP 6h
    Discussing opportunities for women in business and public life at a roundtable in Port Moresby. pic.twitter.com/YxHrDoIKG9 ]

    FMD given she’s the only woman in a Cabinet led by a blokesville douche wholly rejected by women voters at home, do you think she was wearing a shit-eating grin as she posed for the photo?

  56. Laocoon

    Not sure if this has been posted here before (and I have not used it myself) but…. 😀

    http://stoptonymeow.com/

  57. bemused

    deblonay@748

    Ellis makes a good point………

    Re Ian Thorphe he says that forcing young kids barely of school, age to a decade or more of the daily grind of work needed to make them successful in the harsh world of competitive swimming…. is little short of child abus

    Not sure about that.
    I submitted to a lot of that sort of grind because I wanted to.
    Swimming before and after school 5 or 6 days a week and then competition each weekend.
    I was never even close to the Thorpe league, but I had a lot of company with other kids doing the same. We enjoyed it.
    A few kids did have the talent to rise to the Thorpe level or close to it.
    Good on them!

  58. Asha Leu

    @Kevin Bonham 823

    [Clive Palmer has claimed to have “internal polling” showing PUP will win the Tasmanian state election. I’ve debunked it here and also pointed to the history of false internal polling claimed by PUP before the federal election:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/pups-internal-polling-claims-are.htm%5D

    Considering that he also claimed that PUP would win the 2013 election and that whatshisname Bjelke-Peterson (the grandson, not Joh back from the grave) would easily win the south-Queensland seat they had endorsed him for, I’m inclined to take Clive’s internal polling with a grain of salt.

  59. Asha Leu

    Any polls besides Essential expected this week? I’m jonesing for my fix.

  60. confessions

    Parliament resumes next week. What will the press gallery write about leading into next week if they don’t have polling to obsess over?

  61. Carey Moore

    There’s (predictably) a new SA Liberal attack ad on TV now (the usual sort with the black and white, and the blokey voice etc.) about last week’s fiasco.

    The most interesting part I observed was the “While the state is losing jobs, they’re protecting theirs” line. While, on the surface, it seems like a criticism of priorities, it is also a sneaky way to imply it’s the cause of job losses. If that point sinks in, you can guarantee the state government will get full blame for job losses – even those that are due to federal cuts.

    I hate to say it but I think it’s pretty effective.

  62. confessions

    Carey:

    Wasn’t SA Labor returned within a hair’s breath last time? It’s seemed to me for a while now that the govt will change hands in SA, esp since the Liberals dumped Redmond.

    I’m not getting this seeming expectation that Weatherill’s govt will be returned, if only it weren’t for X this and Y that from the factional numpties.

  63. zoidlord

    @Carey/836

    Not sure why would people vote for the SA Liberal clowns after Holden fiasco now SPC fiasco?

    Attack ads about Job losses only go so far as fear driven.

    Inregarding your quote line, I think it’s also an attack ad against Federal Coalition Party.

    “While the state is losing jobs, they’re protecting theirs”

    Does it mention Labor at all? Or is it General?

    With Victoria / South Australia loosing jobs, on the bases of Federal Coalition Party, I think it’s more of a general attack.

  64. pedant

    Carey Moore @ 836: And entirely predictable. Senator Farrell should be despatched from public life not because he’s a shoppie, or a faceless man, or a Catholic; but just because he’s a damn fool.

  65. lefty e

    ACT excepted, it looks like wall to wall LNP governments from March till November – when the Napthine government falls in VIC.

    I suppose one cant be 100% certain about SA, but I dont fancy their chances with the Don Farrell poison of the last week.

    Honestly, youve just got to turf these warlords out of your party, ALP, and smash their power bases to a pulp. No good comes of them, only ill.

  66. davidwh

    I have absolute faith in TAPM that he will preform down to my expectations. So far he hasn’t surprised me on the upside.

  67. Lynchpin

    There is quite a bit of Howes bashing on here tonight. I saw 7:30 and i thought he was very impressive.

  68. davidwh

    Other than VIC none of those disposed of, or to be disposed of, Labor governments should be surprised that they were disposed of. There were some pretty ordinary performances in those given their marching orders.

  69. davidwh

    Howes made some good points but he failed to hold the party line so he has to pay the price. And that pretty well describes what is wrong in politics these days. Stick your head up and make suggestions not in line with current idealogy and you get smashed.

    Why shouldn’t we have open and frank community discussions about all issues regardless of their controversy?

  70. confessions

    I haven’t seen Howes, either at the NPC or on 730, so can’t comment on his performances on either.

    Personally I think he represents everything Labor should eschew. The cocky, smug superiority he oozes is best left with the Greens, who wear that shit well with the types of voters that party targets and represents.

    Just for once I’d love to see Howes knock one out of the park for the ALP, but he consistently fails.

  71. confessions

    [Why shouldn’t we have open and frank community discussions about all issues regardless of their controversy?]

    Did Howes say something genuinely controversial, or just his usual of genuinely smug and stupid?

    I’m all up for frank discussions that contribute meaningfully, but past experience suggests we aren’t going to get that from the likes of Paul Howes.

  72. deblonay

    Buglar
    Colac never was or is now a fruit growing area I lived there for some years…it’s cows and spuds and that is it

    The Yarra Valley is still a major area for berry crops and some fresh summer fruit

  73. davidwh

    Fess if you get a chance it’s worth the time to read the transcript of his address. Overall it was both frank and balanced. Trouble is he seems to be now copping it from all sides which is an indication that pluralism in IR is pretty much dead in the water at a national level.

  74. zoidlord

    @davidwh/844

    Howes abit like Abbott & Co, Words fail – Actions don’t.

    And what direction you take that Action also depends on your success of the said words/action.

  75. confessions

    davidwh:

    Howes isn’t ‘copping it’ from me because of some pluralism in IR nonsense, but because he has a track record of putting his foot in it just when the labour movement doesn’t need it.

    I’ll try to catch the transcript of his speech, but am ambivalent because frankly I’ve heard it all before from him and his ilk.

  76. deblonay

    Howes is a Quisling
    __________________
    An old WW2 word to describe traitors applies to Howes,for just as the presure mounts on Abbott he will quote Howes in the debate

    Thetalk-backs ran hot today over talk of cuts in award poayments and
    penalties…now Howes comes to the aid of Abbott
    what a bastard !!

    What sort of Labor Man is he ???
    The answer is …a right-wing NSW union leader…they don’t come much worse than that

  77. davidwh

    Fess I agree his timing was pretty ordinary but perhaps he has had this address planned for some time and therefore he was as much a victim of timing as he was guilty of timing.

  78. zoidlord

    Galaxy Poll last time for South Australia had 54/46, but Holden effects (and now SPC) will effect the state.

    And only a 7% point difference in regards to better economic plans.

  79. confessions

    COAG issues its time-honoured dingo howl at the moon.

    [ The state and federal governments have been urged to embark on a new five-year plan to harmonise business and industry regulation.

    The COAG Reform Council made the call on Thursday, releasing its final report to the Council of Australian Governments on the success of the “seamless national economy” program over the past five years.]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/21289221/call-for-coag-to-set-new-reform-agenda/

    Every COAG for longer than I’ve been alive has been calling for ‘a new reform agenda’, with ‘seamless’ integration between business and industry regulation.

    Clearly we need more polling for the press gallery to wrap itself around. This recycled reform nonsense from yesteryear is just crap.

  80. confessions

    davidwh:

    I’m guessing the victim of timing excuse is a popular one in Howes-Land.

  81. davidwh

    Howes is on 7.30 here now.

  82. davidwh

    Making so e very valid points.

  83. WeWantPaul

    [Howes made some good points]

    Nothing at all to do with not towing the Labor line, his comments are moronic in the contest of an Abbott Government who hates unions, hates workers and hates their getting paid a decent wage. Abbott has already declared war, and in that context Howes can only be an idiot or a surrender to Abbott.

    Reasonable sensible non confrontational outcomes, dare I say an accord mark II would work with a good sensible PM, Abbott is a moron and Howard wasn’t good enough to have gone with one either.

  84. deblonay

    In the next few days watch Abbott and Hockey make capital out of Traitor Howes mad statements
    they must see him as heaven sent !

  85. WeWantPaul

    [ Abbott is a moron and Howard wasn’t good enough to have gone with one either.]

    remember Reith and the waterfront. The unions didn’t declare these wars, Howard and Abbott did. they are Hitler in this context just not as intelligent, reasonable or well loved as he was.

  86. zoidlord

    Something else to to worry about if Liberals gain power in SA:

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/more-than-10000-households-to-share-in-6-million-compensation-for-blackouts-after-wild-storms-in-adelaide/story-fni6uo1m-1226819009299

    & Something that Labor has failed to invest in properly.

    & is now costing $6 million in compo.

  87. Carey Moore

    [Wasn’t SA Labor returned within a hair’s breath last time? It’s seemed to me for a while now that the govt will change hands in SA, esp since the Liberals dumped Redmond.

    I’m not getting this seeming expectation that Weatherill’s govt will be returned, if only it weren’t for X this and Y that from the factional numpties.]

    Well the odds have always favoured a Liberal win in March, just how much the balance of probability favoured them is what has oscillated. Until December last year, I’d have given the Liberals a 75% chance of winning at most. Then, after the Holden announcement, I’d have reeled that number right into almost being 50-50 (with the Libs having the slight edge), now it’s blown out in the Libs’ favour.

    The state government now obviously seems terminal, which is a dangerous territory to be in, as every attack and accusation sticks to a dying government. Also, the media love to attack a dying government too (it makes for interesting reporting when you can break another “scandal” or “blunder” and the public is behind you.) There aren’t any “baseball bats” as of yet but, with 37 days to go, there’s still time for the momentum to roll that way and turn a reasonable Liberal win in a massive one (the difference between one and two terms IMO).

    Attack ads aside, the politicians themselves are playing it extremely cautious. Steven Marshall is running the most innocuous campaign ever. He is doing nothing more than posing for photo ops and his shadow ministry is staying away from the spotlight. They know to shut up now and they’ll get over the line. Expect minimal policies from the Liberals this time.

  88. zoidlord

    @Carey/862

    Liberals don’t do minimal policies imho.

  89. Carey Moore

    [Other than VIC none of those disposed of, or to be disposed of, Labor governments should be surprised that they were disposed of. There were some pretty ordinary performances in those given their marching orders.]

    I’d go as far to say that the Victorian one wasn’t that big of a surprise either. The Vic ALP ran a very lazy campaign and paid for it. It didn’t help that I had friends in the Vic ALP who were basically gloating that Victoria won’t flip because of how “progressive” Victoria is – and they’re still using that rationale now to already claim victory this November. While they’re favourites to win that election, I caution against allowing such generalisations to lead to complacency.

  90. Carey Moore

    [Liberals don’t do minimal policies imho.]

    I meant you are not going to hear many policy announcements from them.

    The only ones that have stuck out (besides the vague “I’m going to wave my magic business wand and the economy is going to grow” statements) have been promises to build small, local things to buy votes in marginals (in particular, Adelaide, where the Lib MP is struggling, despite the overall swing to the Libs everywhere else.)

  91. Tom the first and best

    864

    The Coalition certainly ran the est campaign of the 2010 Victorian Election. They seemed to get the issues, like public transport. It has since emerged that they do not get public transport and instead are trying to ramrod the East-West Link through. They also have been a bit of a mess with leadership and Shaw. I think the Coalition will loose but not in a landslide. I also think that, if the Coalition do get the East-West Link contract signed before the state election (likely), the Greens will take inner-city seats off the ALP because the ALP say they won`t cancel the contract.

  92. zoidlord

    @Carey/865

    With what money and what jobs?

    Bit late I suspect, sad to say.

  93. Carey Moore

    [With what money and what jobs?

    Bit late I suspect, sad to say.]

    I don’t know. I am not advocating their policies.

    And there are plenty of avenues for economic growth in SA. The long-term outlook is not that bleak (it was much bleaker in 2002, when the ALP came into power.)

  94. zoidlord

    @Carey/868

    Unemployment is 6.8% for SA (as of December 2013).

    It only took a month to change these from 6.6% (November 2013).

    & Look at that, Abbott on Holden:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/prime-minister-tony-abbott-keeps-sa-waiting-for-holden-response/story-e6frg6n6-1226819090232

    (in time for local election).

  95. Carey Moore

    I didn’t say the current economic position of the state was good. I just said the long-term outlook is not that bleak. There are plenty of avenues of investment, both from government and the private sector.

    You want to talk bleak, go back to 2002. Everybody was leaving the state in droves and Adelaide was only good as a nice quiet place for the grandparents to retire to. The city was dead. Shops were always closed and there was no real drive to grow. It was on track to oblivion and it was considered a joke to invest any money in the city – and don’t even think about being on “must visit” lists of international tourist publications.

    So, yes, the outlook is much better now than it was back then. Will there be short-term pain? Yes. But in the long term, I believe the state will bounce back harder and stronger. Providing the state government doesn’t do something incredibly myopic and stupid that scares people away or completely stunts growth.

    Anyway, that’s my 2 cents. Time for me to go to bed because it’s 1:30am and I am very tired.

  96. zoidlord

    @Carey/870

    If you don’t want to talk about bleak, then don’t on about how things are better than it was (when for the most part) they are not.

    Simple fact is the discussions now and previously are effecting Australia economy, including trash talking by the liberals.

  97. Otiose

    04:57:00 06/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol

  98. Henry

    Great resource there otiose. I enjoy perusing that each morning; impressive.

    I hope it is now open slather for labor mp’s to call Abbott a liar. Get the meme happening and hammer him.
    If he squeals they can just refer to Sharman Stone’s comments wrrt “we are merely agreeing with the member for Goulburn” (or whatever her electorate is called).

  99. Schnappi

    Who trains these AFP Clowns ???

    Bridie Jabour ‏@bkjabour 2h
    Woah, senior government minister rang Ch7 to apologise for AFP raid via @SharriMarkson http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/government-sorry-for-raid-on-seven-over-corby-deal/story-e6frg996-1226830302172