tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it’s all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

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  • 51
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    @RNBreakfast: We have a government who is at war with parts of its community says @billshortenmp #auspol #spc

  • 52
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Gotta love Savva–

    Abbott was doing his job, and appeared to have spent his break thinking about it. Since the political year resumed, he has shown he is beginning to get the hang of it. Not completely, not always, but certainly better than before.

    abbott is on the record saying “We do not need to learn how to be a good government – we have been one”.

    Lies stacked on lies.

  • 53
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    @lenoretaylor: Solar industry to launch marginal seats campaign to save renewables target http://t.co/OYCv6fT2Q0 via @guardian

  • 54
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    GUYTAUR – I just assumed that this was all about Paul Howes positioning himself for a political career by suggesting that he is a statesman/consensus builder.

  • 55
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    zoomster:

    I love how Savva compares Abbott with Hollande and Chris Christie. She has to pick the worst in order to make ABbott look better.

  • 56
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    K17

    Maybe. However that does not change the contents of the speech. eg the comments about wages are just a factual acknowledgement that sectors like the mining industry are paying way above the pay grade.

    People seem to be reacting to the speech in the same way as they did to PMJG’s misogyny speech. Just this time no international news correcting them.

    When I watched the speech live I saw nothing that praised Abbott and nothing that said workers should have lower wages.

    In fact Paul Howes stated at the NPC that penalty rates were part of a workers safety net.

  • 57
    spur212
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Paul Howes goes for the big grand vision play and ends up flat on his face.

    When I hear or see this clown in the media, I feel gutted. It’s like he destroys all the life out of progressive politics.

    Part of the thing with him is he’s been hanging around people like Olivia Wirth, Grace Collier and a lot of the Sky News “gravitas” crew (e.g Paul Kelly) who have views about IR that conflict with his position. It’s clearly gone to his head.

  • 58
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Interesting article….

    The Scottish National Party had long fought for independence from the UK. When the party won the 2011 elections to the Scottish Parliament, they immediately began preparations for a referendum on secession.

    This independence referendum will be held on September 18. The question put before Scottish voters will be simple enough:

    “Should Scotland be an independent country?”

    The answer to this question is more difficult – not least because it is unclear how such independence would play out in practice.

    One of the core disputes about Scottish independence revolves around the issue of Scotland’s EU membership. The SNP may be a nationalist, separatist party, but bizarrely, its wish for an independent Scotland only concerns parts of the relationship with London, not with Brussels. So while the SNP wants to get out of the United Kingdom as soon as possible, it has no desire to turn its back on the EU. And it wants to have both on their own terms.

    If the SNP had its way, Edinburgh would be independent from London but nevertheless continue to use Sterling as its currency. It would no longer be ruled from Whitehall, but it would still have Her Majesty as head of state. It would even seek membership of the Commonwealth.

    It does not really sound like filing for a divorce, but more like steps towards an open relationship.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/2/6/politics/great-scott-britains-two-faces-europe-unmasked

  • 59
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    spur212

    Did you watch the whole NPC speech. I suspect not. If you had you would see how incompatible what you just said is with the actual speech in context.

  • 60
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    When I hear or see this clown in the media, I feel gutted

    It’s pretty despairing, esp when we know that he will end up in Caucus at some point. It’s inevitable.

  • 61
    spur212
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    The really sad thing is it’s like some of these clowns are just discovering Hawke and Keating for the first time with no idea what they were about and the economic conditions they were facing … And now we have a conservative government lead by a political opportunist (not really lead but he is at the top of the tree for now) who will fake full advantage of it

  • 62
    spur212
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    I read the speech. Do you understand how politics works? If yes, explain to me what he was thinking!

  • 63
    dave
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Piggy Howes has managed to bump the spotlight off abbott’s SPCA lies and the fallout from it all.

    Well done Piggy.

    Shorten dismisses Howes' IR 'fantasy'

    Federal Labor leader Bill Shorten says he won't engage in the "fantasy" of a new compact on workplace relations, saying he doesn't believe Prime Minister Tony Abbott wants to work with unions.

    Union heavyweight Paul Howes has called for a "grand compact" between unions and business, saying it was time to put an end to the era of "blood sport" on industrial relations.

    Mr Shorten said he supported consensus on workplace relations.

    "It's what I've done for 25 years," the former union leader told ABC radio.

    However, he asked: "Do you seriously believe that Tony Abbott is interested in working with trade unions?"

    How could Mr Abbott sit down and strike an accord with organisations he wants to have a royal commission into, Mr Shorten asked.

    "I'm just not going to engage in some fantasy that Tony Abbott is going to change his spots."

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/2/6/national-affairs/shorten-dismisses-howes-ir-fantasy

    Piggy likes a cuddle up to the tories. Track record.

    Michael Kroger and Paul Howes

    As bromances go, this one's pretty unlikely. Kroger's a 54-year old Liberal stalwart and investment banker; Howes is a 31-year old union boss and a rising Labor star. Yet the pair have bonded during their many media appearances together (during the 2010 election campaign, they sparred each Friday on Lateline).

    "Despite our political differences, I like the silver-haired silvertail very much," Howes wrote in his book, Confessions of a Faceless Man (which Kroger launched).

    "He is warm and personable ... a formidable opponent, an evil Tory but very charming." For his part, Kroger describes the AWU boss as "rational, sensible, modern, realistic...He's an exceptional communicator and he has a lot of guts."

    http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/circles/six-surprising-power-partnerships/201204231283

  • 64
    BH
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    spur 212

    I thought what Howes actually tried to say was quite good – remembering Hawkie’s Accord – but Howes picked the wrong time in history. That’s him tho. He doesn’t pick his moments well.

    As you say Abbott will just make political mileage out of it instead.

  • 65
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    spur

    You are looking at it in a 24 hour cycle and how the media reports it.

    About time to stop doing that. The broad generalisations over the long term period Howes was talking about has nothing to do with these.

    As he said in the speech with the shorthand of I am not talking to politicians.

    Already Shorten is using the comments to his advantage to point out how Abbott is waging war. So even the short term cycle is not too damaging.

    I am no fan of the man but what he has done is put a line in the sand for business to consider the cost of war vs industrial peace.

  • 66
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Shorten and Abbott pressers this morning from Griffith campaign.

  • 67
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    dave

    Interesting article….

    I think the last thing I read on this predicts people are going to vote ‘no’ to the referendum.

  • 68
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    @political_alert: Transcript of yesterday’s Senate Select Committee hearing into the government’s Commission of Audit: http://t.co/mHC8cieijX #auspol

  • 69
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Well said, Shorten.

    Mr Shorten said he supported consensus on workplace relations.

    "It's what I've done for 25 years," the former union leader told ABC radio.

    However, he asked: "Do you seriously believe that Tony Abbott is interested in working with trade unions?"

    How could Mr Abbott sit down and strike an accord with organisations he wants to have a royal commission into, Mr Shorten asked.

    "I'm just not going to engage in some fantasy that Tony Abbott is going to change his spots."

  • 70
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    BH

    but Howes picked the wrong time in history. ... He doesn’t pick his moments well.

    Spot on.

  • 71
    daretotread
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Zoomster Guytaur

    Howes is supposed to be playing in the political arena. You know every word, syllable and nuance will be anlaysed. If stuff up you wear it. It is known as politics. Same goes for Gillard and Rudd.

    If you make a blunder in a brilliant speech everyone knows that it is the the blunder that gets reported. If you say wonderful things it will not matter if your delivery is dull or you look tricky or overly nervous or insincere.

    In a speech you will find the that it is ALWAYS the unexpected that gets reported. A Green calling for a ban on dumping in the GBR will not get much attention but a Green who supports it will. Ditto a unionist calling for lower wages.

    This is known as politics.

  • 72
    daretotread
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Paul Howes is probably angling for a job as a commissioner in the new ACCC

  • 73
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    dtt

    And yet another failed observation by you. Congratulations

  • 74
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    dtt

    indeed it is. But isn’t it interesting how the blunders made by one side of politics don’t get reported?

    My point is that a thoroughly sound speech (it doesn’t have to be brilliant) will simply be ignored (if it comes from Labor).

    It’s humanly impossible to deliver a speech which is uniformly brilliant, where every phrase is carefully crafted so that it can’t be misreported — and it were, as I said, the media would (if it suited their purposes) concentrate on something else instead.

    It’s called politics.

  • 75
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    DTT

    So you got Howes speech wrong too. Howes made plain his speech was NOT politics as normal. He was talking directly to business leaders.

    A long term agenda delivered just after a Federal election rejecting Abbott’s politics of division for politics of unity within industrial relations.

    He stated the alternative was a long costly to the nation industrial war where no one wins.

    The point is he was not speaking to Abbott’s ideological warriors. He was speaking to moderates in business swept along in the momentum of Abbott’s war to think again.

  • 76
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    dtt

    of course, what you’re really saying is that no politician should make speeches.

  • 77
    pedant
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    CTar1 @ 70: Mr Howes seems to think, like some of those who surrounded George W. Bush, that he is capable of creating his own reality. Repeated experiments would appear to be proving him wrong.

  • 78
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    24 showing Glasson being booed

  • 79
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    “@_AdamTodd: PM Tony Abbott says he’s “not so sure” about Paul Howes’ Grand Compact: “Very 1980s all of that”.”

  • 80
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Howes made a pitch to business. Why? Cos it is obvious that Abbott being the puglist as Bushfire so eloquently reminds us, is consideing a RC into the unions. Of course,the terms of refeemce will be such that it will generally reflect poorly on the bad eggs within the Union.

  • 81
    spur212
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    BH

    When Labor is in government, go for it. When Labor is in opposition and the conservatives are in power, good luck getting the grand compact idea up! They will never accept anything that tries to find a balance. It’s not in their model of the world

  • 82
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Reference

  • 83
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Of course Abbott is not interested in any compact. Howes already knows this too.

  • 84
    spur212
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Thank god Shorten repudiated him otherwise that could have been quite unpleasant

  • 85
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    spur212

    See how Shorten is now differentiated from the AWU heirarchy……..

  • 86
    BK
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    guytaur
    Whay was Glasson booed?

  • 87
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    The Shareholders not amused:

    Twitter shares hammered after hours on half-billion dollar loss

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-06/twitter-shares-hammered-after-hours-on-large-loss/5241842

  • 88
    markjs
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    As a staunch unionist & life-long ALP supporter, I find Paul Howes incredibly naive …to the point of being outright stupid…

    Fancy even suggesting that Abbott …with his well documented hatred of unions & testosterone fueled ideologically obsessive pugilism …would be interested in some fantastical “grand compact”. It defies all logic.

    All Howes has done is undercut the good work being quietly and methodically done by Bill Shorten to overcome the years of perceived and real disunity within the ALP …and focus attention on this disgusting anti-worker/anti-environment/anti-progressive thuggish Govt.

    Howes has demonstrated his lack of judgement and desire to appease the sociopaths running the Liberal party before …when will he learn that appeasement is ALWAYS seen by such people as a weakness to exploit…?

  • 89
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    spur212

    Paul Howes goes for the big grand vision play and ends up flat on his face.

    When I hear or see this clown in the media, I feel gutted. It’s like he destroys all the life out of progressive politics.

    Part of the thing with him is he’s been hanging around people like Olivia Wirth, Grace Collier and a lot of the Sky News “gravitas” crew (e.g Paul Kelly) who have views about IR that conflict with his position. It’s clearly gone to his head.

    You are spot on and so is K17.

    Howes is a bloody egomaniac who walks both sides of the street.

  • 90
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    spur

    Good on Shorten for chastising him. He is not even in caucus yet thinks he can tell the ALP how to do it.

    The man is an egomaniac let Olivia Wirth have him!

  • 91
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    All those slamming Howes. Think on this. Some in business will see the speech and not Abbott’s or journalists comments.

    They nay see its not in their interest for any change in industrial law.

    Howes was NOT speaking to idealogues. They are a lost cause

  • 92
    daretotread
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Guytaur, Zoomster

    You are wearing your political allegiances on sleeve with the Howes Luurrve.

    The guy is a player in the union movement and closely associated with the Gillard putch. Of course he is political. everything he says will be treated as a political statement while he remains in union movement. Howes saying he is not political is as believable as Peter Reith saying the same thing. Jeepers get real

  • 93
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    DTT

    You are the one with political allegiance in this. I think Howes is a person who contributed to the freat damage of the leadership soap opera.

    I think you need to take a cold shower. Howes speech will be out of the news cycle by the end of the week.

  • 94
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    BK

    Glassson was campaigning last night. When booed he was saying something about boats

  • 95
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    The Immigration Minister may have quietly shelved his idea to "buy back" Indonesian fishing boats, but it appears Scott Morrison has no qualms about giving away boats to stop asylum seekers reaching Australia.

    Mr Morrison announced on Thursday that the Abbott government would donate two retired Bay Class vessels to Malaysia by mid-2015 "to assist in countering maritime people smuggling in the region".

    According to the Customs and Border Protection website the Bay Class vessels are patrol boats used to oppose "unauthorised maritime arrivals, maritime terrorism, piracy, robbery or violence at sea".

    It is the second time the government has given boats to regional neighbours to combat people smuggling. In November, the Sri Lankan navy received two retired Bay Class patrol boats to capture asylum seeker boats before leaving Sri Lankan waters.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malaysia-latest-neighbour-to-receive-boats-from-australia-to-combat-people-smuggling-20140206-322nb.html#ixzz2sUjTgXa5

  • 96
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    @guytaur/93

    Which is probably the same weekend Newspoll will be doing it stuff :P

  • 97
    daretotread
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Zoomster

    Politicians should not make BAD speeches. They should:

    1. Always believe what they are saying. The public has an uncanny knack of sniffing out insincerity

    2. Genuinely try to empathise with the audience. This is harder than it seems, but is the mark of success. Think Obama, Clinton, Bush the younger, Hawke, Beazely and yes Rudd

  • 98
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 2m
    ABC's MD Mark Scott sighs wearily - the media loves talking about the media. Says one newspaper is obsessed. Even QandA spent 30mins on it.

  • 99
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    zoid

    Howes will barely register with voters. He gave Abbott nowhere to hide on SPC lying and the like.

  • 100
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Coming up: Prime Minister Tony Abbott expected to address media in Brisbane after 11am AEDT #ABCNews24 #auspol http://t.co/uCb4PpCldC”

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