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BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it's all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

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The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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3133 comments

3,133 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

  1. As for relativism….(this will be long)

    Richard Shweder says…
    “I am a cultural pluralist, I am not opposed to universalism. Cultural theorists DO NOT divide into only 2 types (anything goes radical relativist and only one thing is acceptable uniformitarian universalists). I strongly believe in universalism but…without the uniformity, which makes me a pluralist.”

    He goes on to say he believes in universal values like justice, autonomy, liberty, loyalty etc but they are often in conflict with each other…”all good things in life cant be maximised. When it comes to implementing true values there are always trade-offs which is why we have different traditions of values (cultures)”.

    So Fran, I respect your opinion on the issue of drugs, I may even agree with it, but I am not confident it is fundamentally RIGHT for all.

  2. And FTR it’s my view that sexual contact between just pubescent children and adults would always have been wrong, unless and until one could believe that the child in question was in practice capable of informed consent.

    That’s plainly hard to credit, and one would presume against it, especially in the middle-ages or the period shortly after it.

    The law finds these things damn near impossible to unpick, and so to protect the interest children have in their acquisition of autonomy, a presumption is made against their capacity to consent to sexual relations with adults, arbitrarily at 16 in our jurisdiction, but less in some others. I find that a reasonable if imperfect thing, because if there is an error in some cases, it’s not a grievous error, and certainly not as bad as exposing minor children to abuse by adults.

  3. Turnbull is like a smooth court jester. Always entertaining, but trapped in the role. Sad really, if he was serious about his legacy he would draw a line and challenge Abbott.

  4. Poroti
    [Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Why are dragons large, gold, and fiery ?

    Because if they were small, brown, and hairy, they’d be coconuts. ]
    😆 😆 😆

  5. poroti

    Actually it depends how you define middle-aged.

    Using the definition that you are, on average, half way through your life, ie your life expectancy is the same as how old you are, a 16 year old in 17th century would be younger than middle aged.

    She would have a life expectancy of over 50 given that she had managed to live to 16.

  6. Constant interrupting seems to be the preferred coalition method for dealing with those panel type shows.

    I agree with Boerwar that Labor should start pushing back and stop allowing their MPs to be talked over all the time.

  7. Malcolm Turnbull bullshitting on Q&A re ‘Boats’ again.

    The purpose of the Coalition’s Asylum Seeker policy is to get racist bogans, and others who aren’t necessarily racist but who have a blind spot about immigration and multiculturalism, to vote for:

    – privatisation (so increased cost and service levels from services now provided by the Federal Government; privatise profits and socialise the losses);
    – dismantling Medicare;
    – putting downwards pressure wages and conditions for workers;
    – transferring wealth up the socioeconomic scale;
    – transferring more of the taxation burden to PAYE employees;
    – trashing the environment where ‘necessary’ to increase corporate profits;
    – withdrawing from action on climate change;
    – winding back public healthcare and public education to third rate safety nets for the very poor (numbers of whom will increase the longer the Coalition stays in office.);
    – nobbling and eventually dismantling the ABC and SBS (the Coalition doesn’t like them and they compete too effectively with Rupert and their other media mates);
    – in foreign relations and trade, unconditional support for the policies and positions of the USA. They’ll get a shock when the TPP starts to bite.
    – nobbling the NBN so that it doesn’t detract from the profitability of Rupert’s empire.

  8. I can’t believe the argument being put forward by the ideologists in their support of ceasing assistance to the manufacturing industry.

    Two words:

    ECONOMIC STUPIDITY

  9. victoria:

    But Tony’s going to create 1m jobs, so in the greater scheme of things, a loss of 30,000 doesn’t really matter.

    You know it makes sense!

  10. confessions

    The state of Victoria is getting pummelled at the moment. I will be very surprised if the state coalition is returned in November

  11. So basically the Abbott government destroyed the entire Australian car industry within 5 months

    Just imagine if it happened on Labor’s watch. Worse than most things that the ‘Carbon Tax’ was alleged to cause, let alone did cause.

  12. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 53s

    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+1) ALP 51 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 7s

    #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (+1) ALP 35 (-3) GRN 12 (+3) #auspol

  13. Earlier today, and I’m sorry I’ve almost forgotten who it was, maybe Tricot, who made the comment about wtte the paucity of those voting in Griffith.

    And, the corollary, about 15% or so not bothering to vote at all.

    Maybe it’s the AEC’s fault for striking eligible voters off the register.

    Back in the day, when I was a youngster who had to enrol to vote, I was always enrolled in my parents’ electorate.

    – that is, I wasn’t forced to enrol, nor did my Secondary College organise a Tax File Number for me – but no matter where I lived, I was always able to vote, absentee or not.

    Nobody was following me, nobody was tracing me. I could always vote as a McMillan voter no matter where I resided.

    Today, my youngest has moved about 3 times in the past 12 months. Each time, he is traced by the Commonwealth and removed from the electoral roll and has to ACTIVELY get re-enrolled.

    FFS, most kids move all over the place between the ages of 16 and 30, before they come home to roost, and with every change of address they’re expected to update the electoral roll.

    What with every other ID card, bank stuff, drivers licence, where their car is garaged, broadband access by newphone, myki, etc, unless they’re very organised (or female :lol:) their electoral enrolment is going to be the last thing to do.

    And, if they haven’t organised a forwarding address they’re struck off the roll until they re-enrol at their new address/electorate.

    How does this situation get addressed? I.E. where eligible voters are forced OFF the roll.

  14. Yep,the Napthine government will fall in November.

    I dont wish to piss in my own pocket, but I correctly predicted the fall of the Brumby govt a year out, here at PB, quite a while before many others were agreeing with me 🙂

    Andrews to be VIC Premier this year. Could be earlier than we think too.

  15. On paper Napthine looks in deep trouble but i wouldn’t say its game over just yet, his main problem and maybe it will turn out to be an asset but lack of activity.

    Currently there are 21 LNP (I know they are separate parties in Victoria)seats held by margins under 10% including three which have ALP MP’s

    So in raw numbers the ALP need to gain five (on paper they hold 40 unofficially 43)